When healthy he is an absolute beast and I think he will get paid like one too, although he's no spring chicken at 30 and the health factor will ding the cost.JD Martinez is crushing it. I'd love to see him in a Sox uniform next year. JD - Beni - Mookie, left to right.
Nothing against JBJ, but as great a CF as he is, the lineup needs more power.
I don't think they can afford Martinez unless they move at least some of Hanley's contact.I think he is going to be the starting left fielder for the Sox next year. Even though it would be ideal to trade Hanley, I think he is unmovable. So I think JBJ is playing his final games with the Sox
What do you expect him to say as the season wraps up? "Gee this place is a dump and I can't wait to go to the highest bidder this winter!"?FWIW, J.D. has been pretty outspoken on how much he loves it there and wants to be with Arizona next year. The feelings are mutual. I guess it all comes down to dollars but it might be hard to pry him away from the desert.
This is exactly right. Martinez should replace both Moreland and Chris Young, with Hanley playing first with Travis as his backup.Why would you trade Bradley? If you sign Martinez, you let Moreland go and play Hanley at first, with Travis available when Hanley can't play first. If Hanley can't play first often enough, then he doesn't get enough at-bats to trigger his option.
We have a great outfield, where we need to upgrade is DH. Martinez isn't even a very good outfielder, he would be a huge improvement at DH though.
With the structure of Hanley’s deal, it would be more accurate to say we can’t afford *not* to sign someone who will challenge him for playing time.The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
Well, under the proposed scenario Hanley would be a $20m 1B - I think his defense was ok enough last year that this could work although he'll be two years older.The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
Yup and they need to spare some cash for Mookie and whoever else they plan to lock up. I don't see this as a likely expense. If they viewed themselves this way, Edwin Encarnacion would be here.The Red Sox already have a $20M DH. I don't think they'd sign another one
Bradley goes there because it'll be deemed that the fairly massive offensive upgrade is worth the defense downgrade, and dropping $200m (or whatever) on a 30yo guy who's going to limit the overall flexibility coming out the gate over the next 6-7 years is probably the worst long term approach on the table.Why would you trade Bradley? If you sign Martinez, you let Moreland go and play Hanley at first, with Travis available when Hanley can't play first. If Hanley can't play first often enough, then he doesn't get enough at-bats to trigger his option.
We have a great outfield, where we need to upgrade is DH. Martinez isn't even a very good outfielder, he would be a huge improvement at DH though.
Clearly it's meant to be Martinez however unclear it was spelled outWait, who’s the 6-7/$200 player? JBJ? Seriously?
The guy who's been at or below replacement level 3 of the last 6 seasons? No thanks.I'd rather spend the cash on Eric Hosmer.
You're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.The guy who's been at or below replacement level 3 of the last 6 seasons? No thanks.
You should have seen his hot take after Mike Schmidt's rookie yearYou're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.
Despite his gold gloves most evidence points to him being only an average defensive first baseman (below average range, good at scooping). You don't have to go back 6 seasons to find a bad offensive season, he OPS'd .751 last year and .716 in 2014. He's been good two of the past 4 seasons, and bad two of them. This year he's running a BABIP 37 points higher than his career average. No thanks.You're really going back to his age 22 season to judge where he is as a player now? He's coming into his prime years now and has had 2 really good offensive seasons over the last 3. Combine that with his 3 Gold Gloves over the last 4 seasons and he'd be who I'd want to have next year.
I'm hoping you're right wrt payroll. That this was a reset year and the purse strings loosen during this window.I think people in this thread are going to be surprised by how high payroll goes over the next two or three years.
The reason they held the line this season was to reset the penalties for the rest of our window.
Next year, they’ll have a stacked rotation, a young lineup core, and — with Smith healthy — likely a very good bullpen.
The *only* missing piece is a cleanup-type power bat, someone with legitimate 30+ HR power to put with Hanley and Devers in the middle of the order.
So you know Dombrowski is going to get *someone.* The only question IMO is whether we would prefer a LHH.
Agreed, at least in comparison to what JD Martinez's market is going to be looking like.I'd rather spend the cash on Eric Hosmer.
You also have to consider aav on those deals still on the books -If I understand Cot's correctly, the Red Sox have three free agents in 2018, Moreland, Young and Abad. That's $14 million in payroll, most of it from to players JD would replace and the rest from one that doesn't need replacing. If they were to trade JBJ for prospects, that's another $6 million freed up, minimum, depending on JBJ's arbitration and the OF salary. That's 20 mil. It might take $25 mil to land JD.
Is JD + Travis + 4th OF > JBJ + Moreland + Abad?
JD Martinez just turned 30, plays a full time outfield (regardless whether it's a downgrade for our current team), had three .900'ish OPS seasons going in to this one, and is currently putting up a walk year slash line of .306/.380/.699 with 45 home runs. Nobody on last year's market, or in the recent markets before that, makes for an arguably good and even comp there. The guy has point blank positioned himself as the best hitter to hit free agency is quite some time, and a guy like that 100% isn't falling through any "the market just isn't there" cracks this winter.Given that last year's FA market did not result in the expected big deals for older one dimensional sluggers (the very definition of JD) its unlikely he will cost a fortune.
If EE was 4+ years younger and had been a full time first baseman going in that market ends up playing out a lot different then it did.I would want no part of an 8 year for a 30 year old late bloomer. (I seem to recall a Bill James study showing late bloomers tended to fade quicker - no link)
I would, however offer a 3/4 year deal at 25m per.
He looks a lot like EE to me. We shall see what kind of a market he will generate.
Thank you for the information. In that case, I think it’s much less likely that he gets $200m, and I’m much more excited about giving him a deal.The nationals do not need a werth replacement. Michael Taylor has been better in cf than JBJ this year and Adam Eaton returns next season from injury. No way they are in the jd market
Edit: also victor Robles, their top prospect and a top 5 mlb prospect, is a cf. no way they spend money on Martinez. They have tons of outfielders
Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup. Kinda like the Nationals a few years back when they didn't arguably "need" a Max Scherzer at the time either, but jumped in on him anyway.Thank you for the information. In that case, I think it’s much less likely that he gets $200m, and I’m much more excited about giving him a deal.
Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup..
I'd guess Upton opts out, but buying into his walk year is probably even riskier overall then JD imo.Does anyone think Justin upton opts out? I want no part of that but maybe the angels make a jd push? Hamilton is off the books after this season. And they need to be competitive soon if they want any chance of retaining trout
I was thinking that the Upton deal is a good comp, actually. Martinez is the better hitter, but Upton had better pedigree, a longer track record, and was two years younger at FA, so a six-year deal only extended through his age 34 season.Your list isn't completely accounting for the possibility that Martinez's bat is both good and rare enough (from an availability standpoint) that a team doesn't necessarily have to have a pre-existing hole or spot open to be interested in adding a 169+ops bat to their lineup. Kinda like the Nationals a few years back when they didn't arguably "need" a Max Scherzer at the time either, but jumped in on him anyway.
Again, take a comparison look at all the other established big bats contracts signed in recent years by guys who weren't already pushing 35yo, and the #'s they were putting up. Even ball parking Cespedes' per/year $$$ at Justin "defensive metrics didn't like him either" Upton years puts you at 6/$165m. Which is likely being as conservative as you realistically can be there as well.
I don't know enough about Martinez to feel strongly about most any points in this thread, and I think you have some decent points in this post, but there's a glaring hole here. Has anyone ever gone into a season with the plan that the normal 4-man bench includes no one who plays the outfield? Having your DH be the only legit backup for 3 positions is going to mean a weirdly large # of games where you lose the DH, and/or too many games where you put an emergency player in the outfield who has no business being there. Generally I see 2 bench players who can play in the outfield, at least one of whom also has another position. Right? Are you expecting Nunez or Travis or Marrero to pick up significant outfield time?Given that last year's FA market did not result in the expected big deals for older one dimensional sluggers (the very definition of JD) its unlikely he will cost a fortune.
But I want no part of him in LF - leave the OF as is - it's arguably the best defensive OF in baseball - and should only improve offensively.
I'd sign him as a DH with Hanley back to first and Travis as backup. I'd also bring Nunez back as the supersub. I have been underwhelmed by Moreland's supposed strength - his defense. Having Travis as a defensive replacement also has the happy effect of limiting Hanley's plate appearences.
So
Incoming:
JD Martinez
Re-sign:
Nunez
Promote
Travis
Outgoing:
Moreland
Holt
Young
With a lineup up
rf: Betts
2b: Pedroia
lf: 10D
dh: JD Martinez
3b: Devers
1b: Hanley
ss: X
cf: Bradley
c: Vazquez
Bench:
Leon
Nunez
Travis
Marrero
Martinez acts as the default 4th OF
I think you need both Marrero and Nunez due to Pedroia's ongoing knee issues.
I think I viewed Nunez as the the de facto 4th OF .. I believe he has OF experience. If they resign him I could see him getting 400 ABs without having a regular position.I don't know enough about Martinez to feel strongly about most any points in this thread, and I think you have some decent points in this post, but there's a glaring hole here. Has anyone ever gone into a season with the plan that the normal 4-man bench includes no one who plays the outfield? Having your DH be the only legit backup for 3 positions is going to mean a weirdly large # of games where you lose the DH, and/or too many games where you put an emergency player in the outfield who has no business being there. Generally I see 2 bench players who can play in the outfield, at least one of whom also has another position. Right? Are you expecting Nunez or Travis or Marrero to pick up significant outfield time?