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Jarren Duran

Discussion in 'The Adopt a Prospect Forum' started by The Gray Eagle, Apr 12, 2019.

  1. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

    Duran was a 2018 7th round draft pick out of Long Beach State, where he played second base. He is a LH hitter with plus speed, which the team is trying to maximize by playing him in CF. Sox Prospects describes him thus: "Tall, lean frame. Quick-twitch athlete. Athleticism stands out on the field. Has room to add strength in his upper body."


    In three seasons as starting second baseman at Long Beach, Duran hit .295 in 168 games, with 122 runs scored and 10 triples. He had his best year as a junior, when he hit .304 for 42 runs.

    “He’s made huge strides, huge strides in his game,” Long Beach State head coach Troy Buckley told the Orange County Register during the season. “JD has really, really grown up here to be a more mature player and a more mature person.”

    Duran was ranked the No. 170 prospect in the 2018 MLB Draft by Baseball America. It called him a “consistent performer with speed as his standout tool” and a Player to Watch.

    Duran also made an impact in the Cape Cod League before his junior year, hitting .281 with 10 steals in 34 games for the Wareham Gatemen. The Red Sox drafted him No. 220 overall and signed him for a $189,800 bonus.

    In his 37 games with Lowell last year, Duran put up a 348/393/548 line, with 10 triples.

    Promoted to Greenville, he slashed 367/396/477 in 128 at-bats.

    He's starting this year in Salem and has gone 12 for his first 29, so far slashing 414/433/552.

    He's off to a decent start in his short pro career.

    So far he has played 74 games at 3 levels, and combined, he is hitting .362, with a .398 OBP and .519 slugging, with 26 stolen bases in 36 attempts.
    (As I was typing this up, he made an out and his batting average plummeted 8 points. So I guess it's over, he's sinking like a stone and will be a bust.)

    He is not projected to hit for power, despite being 6'2" and 200 pounds. Sox Prospects again:
    "Well below-average power potential. Will run into a few home runs per year, but swing isn’t geared for over-the-fence power. Double and triple numbers will be inflated by speed rather than by power. However, changed initial setup, having started from a wide stance before coming up and back at Long Beach State to now starting more upright, which has allowed him to at least tap into more gap-to-gap power than expected."

    As a fast LH CF, he reminds me a bit of Jacoby Ellsbury, though without as much star potential. Ellsbury was a first round pick who walked more and was already settled in CF. At age 21, Ellsbury had an .850 OPS at Lowell in 35 games, which isn't so different from Duran's debut. Ellsbury followed that up with an .808 OPS in high A and AA at age 22. It will be interesting to see if Duran can have a similar second pro season. He's off to a good start at least.

    Sox Prospects says Duran does not have hands of stone:
    "Potential above-average defender at either second base or in the outfield. Needs work in the outfield to reach that potential because he is raw, having just been introduced to the position. Converted to the outfield in pro ball and showed a slow first step in center field, struggling with initial reads. Was able to make up for that due to his speed, but clearly wasn’t comfortable. Moved to right field in Greenville, where line to plate is similar to second base, which should help acclimation to the outfield. Long-term, has the speed and athleticism teams covet for center field. At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was wasted."

    His Lowell manager praised his mentality, which is good to hear:
    “Jarren is special,” said Lowell Spinners manager Corey Wimberly. “I think he has the mentality and tools to go far in this game. From that first at-bat, you could see it. He is going to be a very, very special player to watch... Right away he impressed us,” said Wimberly. “He has the right makeup and mindset. He came out, worked hard and is definitely a competitor. I think that’s a big part of his success.
    “He is aggressive but also smart. He swings well through the fastballs and the breaking balls, and he has a good idea of the strike zone. His speed is the most impressive part of the game, but he has some power, too.”
  2. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

    One of the most exciting prospects in the system, thanks for giving him some love.
  3. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Now hitting .398/450/.516 leading all of minor league baseball in average and, according to Alex Spier, has a Jacoby Ellsbury gear on the bases, one that he relishes using.
  4. Reggie's Racquet

    Reggie's Racquet Member SoSH Member

    A J.D. that cares is obviously a good thing.
  5. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member


    Timely tweet by Red Sox Stats.

  6. Tangled Up In Red

    Tangled Up In Red Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    This is appreciated.
  7. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

    After a brutal 0 for 7 slump earlier in the month, Duran is back up to speed, going 16 for his last 29 to get his season numbers up to a halfway decent .413/.472/.538, good for a 1.010 OPS in 143 PAs.
    Only 1 HR, but 9 doubles and 3 triples, with 14 walks, 33 Ks, and 13 stolen bases in 18 attempts. At least one of those caught stealings came the other day when he was caught trying to steal home:
    "With two outs, Duran was nailed trying to steal home.
    "I'm always looking first-pitch," he said. "It was a first-pitch fastball. That's usually your best pitch. The pitcher is trying to get ahead early, especially at the beginning of the game."

    As of Tuesday when the article was written: "Duran leads the Carolina League in batting (.412), hits (54), runs (34), OBP (.469) and stolen bases (13). His 1.011 OPS stands second."

    He's LHH, so it's nice that he is hitting lefties okay, going 23 for 49 so far (.469/.519/.571.)

    In his first 102 games as a pro at all levels, he's hitting a combined .376/.421/.523, for a .944 OPS.

    We must have an amazing farm system, since we have 9 prospects rated higher than this guy. To be fair, Chavis is in the majors now, so maybe Duran can move up to #9 in the system.
  8. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

    I don't understand why you'd want to steal home on a first-pitch fastball. Wouldn't that generally be about the easiest pitch of the whole PA for the catcher to pick cleanly and pivot into the tag from?
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Last 20 games: 96 PA, .452/.521/.560, 10bb/20k, 8/11 SB.
    In those 20 games, he reached based at least once 19 times, twice 17 times, thrice 10 times, 2 times twice, and 5 times once. He has been on base 50 times in the last 20 games. That is ridiculous. His BAbip for that time period is .594. For the year, it's .536.
  10. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Those two statements aren't related, the 1st pitch FB is his hitting approach.
    If you click through to the article they two lines were in different paragraphs, the thrown out at home was a statement from the author and the 1st pitch stuff was a quote from Duran.
  11. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    22 year old with 3 years of college ball experience, shouldn't he be moving up to Portland soon?

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