Heyman says Lackey/Corey Littrell to Cardinals for Kelly/Craig

xjack

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Maybe they're going to send JBJ down and try either Victorino or Cespedes in CF? Cespedes has played 75 games in CF, and the metrics show him to be a league-average CF.
 

Corsi

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Derrick Goold ‏@dgoold  1m
Sense around #Cardinals right now: stunned. Players, including ones dealt, are just stunned. #stlcards
 
 
 

jscola85

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Even if all Kelly becomes is a #4/5 starter, he could be part of a trade this offseason with a team like Miami.  They would have to appreciate the years of control they would have over him and his MLB readiness.  Not saying he is a centerpiece to a Stanton trade or anything but he is a solid asset to have around.
 

Moosey

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Leskanic's_Thread said:
Maybe Ben has identified "guys with two first names" as the new market inefficiency.
 
Pisser they missed out on Darwin Barney.
 

Joshv02

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The Red Sox picked up two guys with career 120 OPS+.  The rest of their team has two such players for either their career or this year.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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The Gray Eagle said:
AND we have to throw in a minor leaguer?? Wow, sucky return for Lackey at the minimum salary next year. 
 
Edit: From the latest Corsi-bot post-- Or maybe we don't throw in a minor leaguer, but we do throw in money? Not as bad, still don't like it.
It's a solid return. Steal if Craig is healthy. Now you have an Ortiz replacement (Napoli) a 1B Craig and a slugger (Cespedes) I can see what Ben is doing. I do think Kelly profiles better as an RP though.
 

brandonchristensen

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My Cards-fan friend is freaking out (in a bad way).
 
He's not happy about it at all.
 
(EDIT)
I suck at english.
 

Paradigm

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Touche?
Trade really hinges on Craig's health, I think. He wasn't healthy during the 2013 World Series, and it's possible that he never fully recovered during the offseason. If he can focus on staying healthy, he could be a monster in 2015 and his contract is really palatable. 
 
Sox added two power hitters to the 2015 lineup today -- something they sorely needed.
 

brandonchristensen

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If everyone plays to their ceilings, we have quite a lineup for next year.
 
Of course, if everyone just continues this years play...not so much.
 

rembrat

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When the dust settles we need to figure out who are the chips and who are the keepers. Message board fun.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
With both Cespedes and Craig onboard where are they going to play Mookie next year? Some very puzzling moves here ..
Miami has a big opening at 2B
 

Sox and Rocks

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Joshv02 said:
The Red Sox picked up two guys with career 120 OPS+.  The rest of their team has two such players for either their career or this year.
It's unfair to bring stats like this to an emotional discussion based, in some cases, on gut reactions
 

zenter

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Clears Cleaver said:
If you had told me Lou Gorman had made these trades I would not be surprised at all
 
I... Don't get this one. Lester and Lackey are basically rentals at or above 30. The inbound players are younger non-rentals with some upside (Cespedes contract weirdness acknowledged). These are like reverse-Gorman trades, aren't they?
 
Not saying there's a superlative talent in the bunch they got back, but this isn't a Reardon-Smith-Brunansky situation or even nearly the infamous Bagwell-Anderson. It's... Pretty good.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I really like the gamble on Craig in the abstract, given how good he's been in the past and how team-friendly his contract will be if he can bounce back.  What worries me is that the trade is fundamentally a huge bet on whether or not Craig can be fixed and the team we're betting with has much better information and insight into that question than we do.
 

Drek717

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Dogman2 said:
 
The trade happened 2 minutes ago and it is already the worst deal BC has struck and a huge failure.
 
Good to know. 
I didn't realize the market values of these guys changed dramatically in the last two minutes.
 
Craig was a very productive hitter until his lisfranc, he's been lost at the plate since for nearly a full year now.
 
The horseshoe fell out of Kelly's ass late last season, he's never managed to find it again.  He's gotten by with Dave Duncan smoke and mirrors coaching but at his core doesn't have good enough stuff, control, or versatility in his arsenal to be a worthwhile starter in the AL East.
 
Meanwhile John Lackey has been a horse for 1.5 seasons and costs league minimum for all next season.  The odds that Kelly posts a 6.00 ERA the rest of the way and is off the club by opening day 2015, and that Craig continues to show zero power and toil away as a limited 1B/LF with a sub .700 OPS are both pretty high.  The odds John Lackey suddenly turns into a pumpkin after figuring it all back out are not.  Cherington painted himself into a corner and got outright SCREWED.  It's a fact.  This is the worst return for any starting pitcher of note traded this summer.  I would rather have gotten just Ramsey (the guy the Indians got for Masterson) than Kelly + Craig.  Kelly is worthless and Craig is just as much of a lottery ticket as Ramsey but owed $20M over the next three years while Ramsey is still coming up through the minors with six years of control waiting when he is ready.
 
It's failure in every sense of the word unless there is a second move to some insane team that actually values Kelly more than a bag of baseballs, because that is all he's going to be worth after his first taste of AL lineups.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Allen Craig has fallen off a cliff this year.  He was an All-Star last season but has hit .237/.291/.346 in 97 games this season.
 
78 OPS+.  
 
The big question is what happened?  This looks like a case where the Red Sox trust their scouts/coaches to identify/fix whatever is wrong Craig.
 
 
Allen Craig
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2010 25 STL NL 44 124 114 12 28 7 0 4 18 0 1 9 26 0.246 0.298 0.412 0.711 92 47 1 0 0 1 1 Sep-54  
2011 26 STL NL 75 219 200 33 63 15 0 11 40 5 0 15 40 0.315 0.362 0.555 0.917 151 111 7 1 1 2 0 79/4835  
2012 27 STL NL 119 514 469 76 144 35 0 22 92 2 1 37 89 0.307 0.354 0.522 0.876 137 245 15 1 0 7 1 39/7D MVP-19
2013 ★ 28 STL NL 134 563 508 71 160 29 2 13 97 2 0 40 100 0.315 0.373 0.457 0.83 130 232 12 10 0 5 2 379/D AS,MVP-18
2014 29 STL NL 97 398 367 34 87 17 1 7 44 1 1 26 77 0.237 0.291 0.346 0.638 78 127 11 3 0 2 0 *937  
 
 

Bleedred

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
What are you basing the bold on? He outperformed his peripherals, but it's not like he had that 2.69 ERA with a 5.00 FIP and xFIP. He's a middle of the rotation guy in the AL East. I see nothing in his peripherals to suggest he's going to get blown up.
According to Fangraphs, a FIP and xFIP of 5.00 is rated "Awful"
 

CaskNFappin

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I just want to remind everyone that Craig was the most feared hitter in the Cardinals World Series lineup even though he was injured...

Even Tavares will be lucky to have some of the seasons Craig turned in.....It's a down year for him, let's get excited for this guy at least.
 

IdiotKicker

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Drek717 said:
So this looks like one of the top 5 worst deals Cherington has ever struck.  Joe Kelly was the luckiest pitcher in baseball last year and will get blown the hell up if he actually pitches in the AL East.  Craig is a guy I was all for acquiring in exchange for Peavy, but his remaining money, lack of production this year, limited positional versatility, and likely ongoing lisfranc issues hindering him this year makes him horrible return for a legit #2 with a year of control left.
 
There is a very real possibility that a year from now we got more of value from Jake Peavy than John Lackey.  That is a serious failure in what was supposed to be a seller's market.
 
John Lackey is a 2-3 win player under control for 1.5 seasons.  Allen Craig is a 2-3 win player under control for 4 more seasons at reasonable cost.  Joe Kelly has a pretty good chance of getting lit up in the AL and not really mattering too much.  I'd probably give this a B/B+ in my book.  Unless you're getting truly premium young talent back, which I don't think you would for a guy like Lackey, this is the type of deal you make in a heartbeat.  And as I mentioned in the Lester thread, I'd want 2-3 prospects since you still have so much flameout potential, which I don't think most teams would be willing to give up.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
He's got a career 4.00 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP. He's at 3.93 and 3.72 this year and throws really hard.
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=523260&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/31/2014&s_type=2
 
The problem is that he's basically never been very good at translating the stuff into outs. His career minor league WHIP is 1.40. In the majors it's 1.38. He has a career BABIP allowed over .300 and a career K/BB under 2. That's not a good combination.
 
I'm not a fan of this deal either. I liked the idea of Craig when we were talking about Peavy. But we should have gotten more for Lackey, and Kelly just seems borderline fungible.
 

brandonchristensen

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CaskNFappin said:
I just want to remind everyone that Craig was the most feared hitter in the Cardinals World Series lineup even though he was injured...

Even Tavares will be lucky to have some of the seasons Craig turned in.....It's a down year for him, let's get excited for this guy at least.
Yeah I remember reading pre-series write ups, everyone picking the Cards because of Craig coming back and their unstoppable rotation.
 
The biggest thing I'm bummed about is that we don't have a game today.
 

saintnick912

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
With both Cespedes and Craig onboard where are they going to play Mookie next year? Some very puzzling moves here ..
 
I'd imagine anywhere but on the mound.
 
If you had told me two years ago that the Sox would have traded out of Crawford, Beckett, and Lackey's contracts I would have never believed you.
 

LynnRice75

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I am quite pleased with the line-up we are building - or the trade chips we are stockpiling.
I still wonder what we will do with our rotation. Excited to see what will happen though.
 
That being said - I am 48. Last year's Sox squad was my all-time favorite. Sad to see so many (Including most of the rotation) gone.
 

Joshv02

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Drek717 said:
The horseshoe fell out of Kelly's ass late last season, he's never managed to find it again.  He's gotten by with Dave Duncan smoke and mirrors coaching but at his core doesn't have good enough stuff, control, or versatility in his arsenal to be a worthwhile starter in the AL East.
I don't think I've ever seen a guy who averages nearly 95 MPH, with a ten MPH separation on his change, and a curve that he throws often enough, described as having not enough stuff or sufficient versatility.
 
I agree that he isn't a great player - he doesn't miss bats. But, this is way overblown. 
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Unless Joe Kelly has a bowling ball sinker like Wang did before his injury, I don't see him having much success as a starter. Those strikeout rates seem pretty low for a guy with a live fastball.
 

Drek717

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TheShynessClinic said:
 
I want to trade you for someone who doesn't suck.
Says the person defiling the Black Flag logo like so many other internet douches three years ago.
 
Why not debate the merits of the post?  I live in St. Louis, I've watched both guys coming back quite a bit.  Craig was a good buy low option, Lackey isn't buying low.  Kelly isn't going to survive in the AL.
 
I like the Cespedes deal.  That works in a lot of ways.  Making this deal period doesn't, making when they already have Cespedes makes it even worse.
 

Moosey

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zenter said:
 
Darwin Barney? Barney's a first name.
 
And Darwin has been in the top 1000 male baby names for the last 14 years in the US.  
 

MakMan44

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MakMan44 said:
Anything on the MiL from our end? 
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/494893010334011392
 


Sources: Red Sox are sending LHP Corey Littrell to Cardinals as part of the Lackey deal. 2013 5th rounder out of Kentucky
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Chuck Z said:
 
John Lackey is a 2-3 win player under control for 1.5 seasons.  Allen Craig is a 2-3 win player under control for 4 more seasons at reasonable cost.  
 
This is true, but Craig is at a position where it's relatively easier to find 2-3 win players and where we already have players, and Lackey plays a position that's much harder to fill -- and where we are currently thin.
 
I'm not trying to dump on the trade, for sure, but I'm still a bit unclear how Cespedes and Craig both fit in given the current roster.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa said:
Unless Joe Kelly has a bowling ball sinker like Wang did before his injury, I don't see him having much success as a starter. Those strikeout rates seem pretty low for a guy with a live fastball.
He profiles more as a 7th inning guy.
 

ivanvamp

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Drek717 said:
I didn't realize the market values of these guys changed dramatically in the last two minutes.
 
Craig was a very productive hitter until his lisfranc, he's been lost at the plate since for nearly a full year now.
 
The horseshoe fell out of Kelly's ass late last season, he's never managed to find it again.  He's gotten by with Dave Duncan smoke and mirrors coaching but at his core doesn't have good enough stuff, control, or versatility in his arsenal to be a worthwhile starter in the AL East.
 
Meanwhile John Lackey has been a horse for 1.5 seasons and costs league minimum for all next season.  The odds that Kelly posts a 6.00 ERA the rest of the way and is off the club by opening day 2015, and that Craig continues to show zero power and toil away as a limited 1B/LF with a sub .700 OPS are both pretty high.  The odds John Lackey suddenly turns into a pumpkin after figuring it all back out are not.  Cherington painted himself into a corner and got outright SCREWED.  It's a fact.  This is the worst return for any starting pitcher of note traded this summer.  I would rather have gotten just Ramsey (the guy the Indians got for Masterson) than Kelly + Craig.  Kelly is worthless and Craig is just as much of a lottery ticket as Ramsey but owed $20M over the next three years while Ramsey is still coming up through the minors with six years of control waiting when he is ready.
 
It's failure in every sense of the word unless there is a second move to some insane team that actually values Kelly more than a bag of baseballs, because that is all he's going to be worth after his first taste of AL lineups.
 
So…….you don't like the deal?  :)
 

joe dokes

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mikeford said:
Craig is basically Mike Carp until he proves he can rebound from foot surgery

 
 
True.  If, by "basically," you mean "not at all."
 
Playing on one foot, he's better than Carp.