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Gone but not forgotten - Dombrowski's Dealings.

Discussion in 'Minor League Forums' started by grimshaw, May 30, 2017.

  1. DrBlinky

    DrBlinky Member SoSH Member

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    #101 DrBlinky, Jul 31, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
  2. ledsox

    ledsox Member SoSH Member

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    Margot is the NL player of the week. He went 14 for 28 with 3 HRs.
     
  3. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Margot now has 7 HRs in his last 16 games. In that time, he is slashing .328/.333/.716 in 69 PA. He now has 12 HRs and an ISO of .171 to go along with 11sb, albeit with 5 cs. Not that I regret the deal, but Margot is going to be really, really good. Up to .272/.309/.443 for the year as a 22 year old in SD. Granted he is hitting .336/.380/.559 at home in 166 PA, .217/.246/.343 on the road in 186.
     
  4. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    4,389
    I don't think anyone suggested he wouldn't be a good player .. he was just unlikely to be a better player than JBJ .. which made him surplus to requirements.

    And , IIRC most of the bitching about the trade was the other guys that were included. And the jury is certainly still out on that.
     
  5. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    It has deliberated on Guerra and convicted him of a complete lack of hitting talent.
     
  6. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I think he has a chance to be better than JBJ. His age 20 season, Margot was injured early in the year and it seemed to rob him of the power he showed in 2014. Last year he didn't hit for all that much power either but again, he was 21 and in AAA. I always thought he'd adept quickly to the majors because of his strike zone judgement as well, although his strikeouts have increased a bit. He was ranked in the top 25 prospects by BA, BP, MLB.Com and others coming into the year so I guess he did get some love. He was in the 50s going into 2016, but BP had him at 14.

    Logan Allen is showing some promise but he's struggled since being promoted to A+. Only 20 years old though. As mentioned above, Guerra is all but done and Asauje is Brock Holt, which has value but isn't missed. It's basically going to come down to Kimbrel for Margot.
     
  7. NobodyInteresting

    NobodyInteresting lurker

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    While I don't disagree that Margot is likely going to be the main value traded, Brock Holt has provided around $30m of surplus value to the Red Sox (per Fangraphs). If Asauje does the same for San Diego, and I think a Holt-like path looks a reasonable possibility at this point, that's the kind of value that adds up.

    $30m+ of surplus value would require Kimbrel to be worth about $70m over his 3 years with the Sox. Would the Red Sox have given Kimbrel 3yrs/$70m if they'd signed him as a free agent instead of trading for him? Maybe, I don't know. They obviously really liked him. But it was a couple of years ago, and recent elite-level closer contracts (Chapman, Jansen, Melancon) have all been at significantly lower AAVs than that. I think it's pretty clear that if they had it would've elicited a "Woah!" reaction.

    FWIW, Fangraphs currently pegs Kimbrel as having been worth about $32m so far, so he's outperforming his contract, and may even generate $30m of surplus value by the end. But that's not a sure thing by any means.

    Now surplus value doesn't tell the whole story, obviously. There are reasons to value what Kimbrel is doing above the level that Fangraphs is allocating to him. Their analysis doesn't include value added in the post-season, and that could be considerable (evidence from the Chapman trade to the Cubs last year suggests that they, at least, put huge value on having an elite closer purely for the post-season). The Sox may use a different replacement level, or non-linear valuation of wins. But it does provide a framework to think about the value of players in an internally-consistent way, and within that framework it's clearly possible at this point that the Sox "lose" this trade even if you exclude the value that Margot generates. Which is probably going to be a healthy amount.
     
  8. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Chris Sale might win the Cy Young and the Red Sox kept the best 3B out of the deal, but Michael Kopech has 54 K and 7 BB over his past 41 IP covering 6 starts.
     
  9. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    In AA, for the Birmingham Barons.

    The level at which he is achieving success is a very important part of the statistic. Leaving it out is just being disingenuous.
     
  10. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    I posted it in the Following Former Red Sox thread but Sale was more or less putting up the same numbers as Sale, only in MLB.
     
  11. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Did I miss the Mel that every post in this thread supposed to be negative? Yeah, he's excelling in AA, which is what he's supposed to be doing this year. Having Sale is awesome. I'm not criticizing the trade by noting that Kopech is doing well.
     
  12. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    No one has ever said the thread has to be negative.

    Not mentioning the level of a minor leaguer is bad message-boarding at best, disingenuous at worst.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Anyone who uses the minor league forum/this forum already knows where Kopech is anyway.
     
  14. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    That is awfully presumptuous and not true at all. I know who he is and all but this forum and thread is about the extent to which I actually follow him.
     

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