Fitts, Weissert, and Judice. What do the Sox Have Here?

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I, for one, am happy . Thanks for details on Ricky Fitts

He'll be the high point of our day.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/brwalkoff/status/1565924268067667968?s=46

21" of horizontal break on this slider from Greg Weissert...

Something straight out of a video game

 

[nighthob]

I totally agree with this - this feels like a Bloom move. Hopefully Fitts becomes a quality major league starter, and maybe this move proceeds other moves to come - "another shoe to drop." Though how many times did we say that about a Bloom move? More seeds for the future. I'd like the team to acquire a couple of already established all-start quality major leaguers. When was the last time they did that? Maybe Story, but there were already yellow flags with him ...

I think Fitts is exactly the type of guy that Breslow is looking to work with, guys that pound the strike zone that need to refine the shape and movement of their pitches. It feels nothing like a Bloom move. Now if they’d traded for the 27th and 38th best prospects in the Yankees’ system and eaten one of their bad contracts in the process, then I’d call it a Bloom move. But this feels like someone that knows that they’re going to have to give up guys like Perales or Gonzalez in a trade for more pitching and wants a solid starting prospect to plug into the system.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I dunno, man. I agree Fitts is not a top-100 guy, but he's not wildly different from some of the guys who have been back-half top-100 guys recently, say Emerson Hancock: Fitts has a very similar profile to Hancock a year ago, when he was in the 80s of a couple lists: SEC background (Arkansas instead of Auburn), he had just thrown ~100 IP in AA the Mariners' system (to Fitts' 150 IP), and with a touch more velocity and a touch less command; Hancock went in the first round, while Fitts was seen as a first round talent but dropped due to an injury — but with an over-slot bonus. Hancock got into three games for the Mariners in August.

But that aside, literally every single team wants an SP with a 9.5 k/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 with no MLB service and all of his options remaining who just pitched 150 healthy innings in AA. If we want to keep him, great: more depth. If we want to flip him, he could be a great second piece in a trade for a good player. Personally, I suspect that a number of signs point to some of the young pitchers we're not currently planning to use in the rotation — but someone else might want to! — heading out in trades, so maybe he's replacing one of those guys, if he's not one of them.

We likely lose Bryan Mata if he's not on the team out of Spring Training. So Craig and friends believe (as I do) that he could be a pretty nasty reliever, maybe it makes sense to deal from our Houck/Whitlock/Pivetta/Winckowski tier of would-be starters in the pen to return something good, and make a spot for Mata in the process.

Keith Law's writeup today says none of the three are likely to be more than middle-relievers. We'll see, but that fits with what I see here. This is a salary dump for some org picthing depth, and maybe they get lucky....but it's more addition by subtraction than anything. Which, to be clear, is fine in my book. Verdugo is overpaid and a platoon guy with a questionable attitude to boot; neither side is getting a ton of value here.

 

[jon abbey]

Profile on Fitts from August:

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2023/08/yankees-pitching-prospect-on-rise-with-fiery-fastball-idolizing-stephen-strasburg.html

 

[santadevil]

We got Ricky Fitts?!?

Sometimes there's so much beauty in the world, I feel like I can't take it.

Nice

 

[YTF]

I think Fitts is exactly the type of guy that Breslow is looking to work with, guys that pound the strike zone that need to refine the shape and movement of their pitches. It feels nothing like a Bloom move. Now if they’d traded for the 27th and 38th best prospects in the Yankees’ system and eaten one of their bad contracts in the process, then I’d call it a Bloom move. But this feels like someone that knows that they’re going to have to give up guys like Perales or Gonzalez in a trade for more pitching and wants a solid starting prospect to plug into the system.

I agree with your last sentence here. The one thing that nearly every team is looking for is good, young cost controlled pitching and that includes Boston. Going into the off season most of us felt that Boston didn't have good expendable arms that we could afford to offer as trade chips in return for players that could fill imediate needs. This type of move inches them toward being in a better position to move another pitcher(s).

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

View: https://twitter.com/brwalkoff/status/1565924268067667968?s=46

21" of horizontal break on this slider from Greg Weissert...

Something straight out of a video game

Crazy break but if the batter sticks with the pitch he could have launched that thing to Jacksonville.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

We might have overpaid in this trade-- people are saying that Judice could have been bought for only 30 pieces of silver.

MLB.com on Judice:
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-nicholas-judice-rhp?t=mlb-draft

After averaging 87 mph with his fastball last year, Judice has worked at 91-95 and reached 100 this spring and his average velocity actually went up 1 mph in his first three starts. His huge frame creates angle and extension that enable his heater to get on hitters quicker than they expect. His No. 2 pitch is a solid mid-80s slider with horizontal and vertical action.

The athletic Judice has learned to keep his long limbs in sync and provide strikes. He rarely uses his low-80s changeup with modest fade, and he'll need to improve his cambio if a pro team wants to use him as starter. It's more likely that he'll be fast-tracked as a two-pitch reliever who offers a combination of stuff and deception.

His velocity really improved quickly. At 6'8" and now touching 100, seems like there's a lot of potential upside.

 

[sezwho]

We might have overpaid in this trade-- people are saying that Judice could have been bought for only 30 pieces of silver.

MLB.com on Judice:
https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-nicholas-judice-rhp?t=mlb-draft



His velocity really improved quickly. At 6'8" and now touching 100, seems like there's a lot of potential upside.

Biblical performance on the bolded.

As to the latter, it sounds potentially just terrifying to stand at the plate against.

 

[AB in DC]

Sounds like an OJ defense firm.

If it's Dicky Fitts, you must acquits.

 

[Mantush]

I posted this in the trade thread:

Here are BAs scouting reports for the pitchers acquired. Mods feel free to delete if not allowed, but I didn't see anyone post them yet. These are all going into 2023... so as of February this year. I have a subscription to BP as well so I'll post their writeups when I have a chance.

Richard Fitts

BA Grade/Risk: 45/High

Track Record: In the early portion of his draft year, Fitts looked spectacular. His fastball had jumped from the low 90s to the mid 90 and was peaking at 97. His slider was razor sharp, too, giving him the look of a future first-rounder. He dealt with a foot injury later in the year and his stuff took a bit of a tumble. The Yankees were encouraged by Fitts' highs to draft him in the sixth round. After resting post draft, he split his first pro year between both Class A levels.

Scouting Report: Fitts' first foray into pro ball was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act. He struggled at Low-A, where a pitcher with a Southeastern Conference pedigree should thrive. He let up a 5.01 ERA and 13 home runs in 79 innings. The script flipped after a promotion to Hudson Valley, where he went 4-0, 0.55 with 38 strikeouts against just three walks. The improvement was due in large part to a delivery alteration that allowed him to keep his front side firm so he could better drive the ball down in the zone. The change also helped his velocity increase and made his slider sharper. His four-seamer sat around 93 mph, touched 96 and posted an excellent average spin rate of 2,439 rpms. Fitts backed the four-seamer with his typical nasty slider, which sat in the low 80s and peaked at 88 while flashing plus potential. He rounds out his arsenal with a high-80s changeup that could get to average with increased usage.

The Future: Fitts could advance to Double-A in 2023, when he'll have to prove that the gains he made in Hudson Valley were sticky. If so, he could fit in the back of a rotation. If not, his fastball and slider would help in relief.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 45

Their writeup in the article of the trade:

Fitts works primarily with two pitches—a four-seam fastball that sits around 94 mph and a sweeper slider at around 84 mph—which he threw a combined 85% of the time in 2023. The Yankees tweaked the slider early in the season, moving it away from a bullet shape. He also mixed in a changeup and cutter, each in the high 80s, but the Yankees wanted Fitts to focus most of his energy on finding a consistent slider shape. The Yankees had a few goals for Fitts in the coming year. First, they wanted him to continue developing his changeup to make it larger part of his repertoire. They also wanted to see Fitts add a touch more velocity to get it closer to the mid 90s and improve the posture during his delivery to keep him from drifting toward the first-base side and causing his pitch shapes to deteriorate.

Greg Weissert

BA Grade/Risk: 40/Low

Track Record: After being drafted out of Fordham in 2016, Weissert moved deliberately through the system and didn't reach the upper levels until his fourth season as a pro. He took a leap forward in 2021 and built on it in 2022, when he won the International League's Pitcher of the Year and made his big league debut. He was part of the team's roster in the American League Championship Series but did not get into a game.

Scouting Report: Weissert's game is built predominantly around two pitches: a mid-90s sinker and a filthy sweeper slider in the low 80s that rates as the best in the system. The pitch mix fits the horizontal style of attack the Yankees prefer from their pitchers. He'll also mix in four-seamer in the same velo band as his two-seamer, as well as a low-90s cutter and mid-80s changeup, but the two-seamer and slider accounted for nearly three quarters of his pitches in the minor leagues. Both pitches could get to plus with upgraded control and command, which was needed after five walks in 11 big league innings.

The Future: Weissert will get a long look at the big league bullpen come spring training. If he can throw more strikes, he can be a middle-innings reliever who sinks and slides his way into outs.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Cutter: 40. Changeup: 30. Control: 40

Their article in the write up of the trade:

Weissert is a big league-ready reliever who has spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors. His signature pitch is his slider, which at one time ranked as the best in the system. He complements the sweeping breaker with four- and two-seam fastballs, as well as a cutter and changeup. The latter two pitches were each thrown roughly 6% of the time. He’s an easy plug-and-play option for the Boston bullpen.

Nicholas Judice (Draft Profile)

School: Louisiana-Monroe Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.3
At 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds, Judice is high-waisted and incredibly projectable. In his fourth season with Louisiana-Monroe in 2023, Judice posted a 3.74 ERA in 53 innings, mostly out of the bullpen, with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Judice throws two pitches, a fastball and slider, and can run his fastball into the mid 90s with little effort. His hard slider is a plus offspeed pitch with sharp break. He has loose, whippy arm action and attacks from a low, three-quarter slot. Given his size, it’s a tough at-bat for opposing hitters. It’s easy to envision an uptick in velocity with the 6-foot-8 righthander given the weight he is likely to put on and once he gets his lower half more engaged in his delivery.

Writeup:

Judice was taken in the eighth round of the 2023 draft out of Louisiana-Monroe, where he struck out 66 hitters in 53 innings out of the bullpen in his draft year. Evaluators inside the organization had tabbed Judice—who has yet to make his pro debut—as a sneaky arm to watch entering 2024. He’s a physical righthander at 6-foot-8 with remaining projection and was a candidate to be stretched out into a starter’s role. Judice’s fastball sat in the low 90s, averaging around 93, but could tick way up and touched 100 mph in college 2023. His slider got whiffs at a 35% clip in 2023 and was singled out as the best secondary pitch in the Yankees’ 2023 draft class.

s. [/quote]

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Fitts is likely the 3rd best SP prospect for the Red Sox if you're any major publication (and 4th if you're @JM3).

Getting that for 1 season of Alex Verdugo when they weren't going to extend him anyway is more than fine.

I don't think anyone is saying the Red Sox just landed Kyle Harrison, and I don't think even @jon abbey is saying we landed a top Yankee pitching prospect. But he's probably a higher combination of "good" and "advanced" than literally anyone in the Sox system. Which is a major issue in itself, but is likely the reality.

Verdugo is a pretty good baseball player, but for better or worse, wasn't going to be part of the Red Sox after 2024. He isn't at all likely to be a major difference between the Red Sox contending for the division and not, and he certainly wasn't going to be a major part of a trade for someone like Cease, Gilbert, Keller, Burnes, Bieber or whomever one would like to trade for.

Truth be told, Fitts himself is likely more valuable to the White Sox, Pirates, Brewers or Guardians than Verdugo.

Seattle that's debatable, but Verdugo would have been more like the 4th piece after Duran, Mayer and Houck for anyone the Sox would want.

 

[JM3]

Fitts is likely the 3rd best SP prospect for the Red Sox if you're any major publication (and 4th if you're @JM3).

Pipeline put him 10th in the Red Sox system, right behind Wikelman & right in front of Perales.

Nighthob has him 3rd behind Perales & Yordanny but ahead of Wikelman.

I would put him in the tier with the 3 of them, which is a pretty jumbled tier. I currently have him last in that tier & not 100% sure that's going to change anytime soon, but that 6-12 range now is super tight.

I probably have Yorke too low right now. I think there is a pretty clear tier from 6 to 11 which is somewhat interchangeable. I put guys in alphabetical order within each tier.

Tier 1
Anthony
Mayer

Tier 2
Teel

Tier 3
Bleis
Rafaela

Tier 4
Abreu
Cespedes
Fitts
Gonzalez
Monegro
Perales
Yorke

[big gap]

Tier 5
Castro
Dobbins
Drohan
Garcia
Guerrero
Jordan
Meidroth
Paulino
Romero
Zanetello

Tier 6
Anderson
Arias
Bastardo
Campbell
Coffey (I)
Hickey
Mata
Paez
Rodriguez-Cruz

Tier 7
Brannon
Coffey (C)
Fernandez
Gambrell
Hoppe
Penrod
Rogers
Robertson
Rosier
Troye
Yuten

Tier 8
Alcantara
Batista
Nunez
Olivarez
Riemer
Santos
Scott
Song

Tier 9
Bonaci
Cepeda
De La Rosa
De Leon
Dean
Musett
Olds
Salazar (J)

That's 57. After that it gets even more muddled.

& I would put Judice squarly in Tier 11.

Lol

Tier 10:
Duffy
Encarnacion
Garcia (Je)
Garcia (Jh)
Hagenman
Hamilton
Martinez
Politi
Ravelo
Van Belle
Walter

I tried to cut this off at a reasonable # of tiers, but YOLO:

Tier 11:
Asencio
Balderas
Binelas
Brand
Cellucci
Early
Jimenez
Judice
Liu
Lugo
McDonough
Rodriguez (W)
Rosario
Zeferjahn

Tier 12:
Asigen
Bell
Cohen
Hernandez (A)
Kavadas
Lira
Mullins
Rodriguez (G)
Salazar (K)
Sena
Sikes
Sogard
Soto

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

(Thanks for the list. I always enjoy reading your - especially - minor league stuff. I may not always agree, but I always find it incredibly interesting and well thought out.)

 

[Jimbodandy]

Keith Law's writeup today says none of the three are likely to be more than middle-relievers. We'll see, but that fits with what I see here. This is a salary dump for some org picthing depth, and maybe they get lucky....but it's more addition by subtraction than anything. Which, to be clear, is fine in my book. Verdugo is overpaid and a platoon guy with a questionable attitude to boot; neither side is getting a ton of value here.

If these guys had the high-ceiling toolsy profiles that Law likes, they wouldn't have been available for Alex Verdugo.

 

[jon abbey]

If these guys had the high-ceiling toolsy profiles that Law likes, they wouldn't have been available for Alex Verdugo.

Yeah, if it went just by Keith Law evaluations, there would be about 50 SPs total in all of MLB.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The Athleitc has some scout's takes on the new arms:
https://theathletic.com/5121322/2023/12/08/red-sox-offseason-pitching-winter-meetings/

Two American League scouts offered notes on each player:

Weissert has a good slider and can be really good against right-handed bats. Though he’s been an up-and-down reliever, and the fact he has options remaining was one reason the Red Sox targeted him, he could carve out a lasting career if given the right role and opportunity.

Fittsy has a wicked heatah:

Fitts has rotation potential with some notable risk of ending up in the bullpen. His fastball is a legitimate weapon and an unmistakable strength of his arsenal. The challenge for the Red Sox will be developing a reliable second pitch and ideally a better third pitch to keep progressing as a starter.

Judice is raw but has upside:

Judice was an eighth-round pick in the summer. Listed at 6 foot 8, he is a big guy who’s never actually pitched in an official professional game. Following a strong showing at University of Louisiana-Monroe, where he posted a 3.74 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 53 innings in his junior season, he made three starts this summer for Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod Baseball League before being drafted but didn’t pitch in the Yankees’ system. He has the size, raw tools and intangibles to dream of a meaningful upside if he can make strides in pro ball.