Plympton91 said:
What is the right price for Lester?
To me, you have to start by setting the bar at what you want in a championship caliber rotation. With that standard, I classify Lester as usually a very good number 2 who occasionally rises to the occasion and pitches like a number 1 and occasionally regresses to a number 4. So, I think you want to pay him like a number 2, not a number 1. The set of recent signings of number 2 quality starters (Sanchez, Kuroda) seems like it is in the $16 to $18 million a season range rather than the $20 million range. I would limit the years to 6 and hope for only 5 to get it done.
So, I think 5/$90 or 6/$105 is what would be a fair deal for both sides. The leverage is with Lester though, so they'll probably have to go higher.
Obviously the trick is figuring out what the expected contract will be for Lester on the open market. Let's say he has another year next year like he did this past year, including a really good performance in the post-season (say the Sox only play one round, he pitches well but they get eliminated).
A workhorse, experienced lefty, with an era around 3.60-3.75 in the AL East, with incredible postseason numbers, at the age of 31 starting the 2015 season…..
Here's a list of the highest paid starting pitchers in the game (Cot's):
Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:
1. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
2. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000
(2013-19)
3. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000
(2013-18)
4. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000
(2012-16)
5. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000
(2013-18)
. . . Cliff Lee, $24,000,000
(2011-15)
7. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000
(2009-15)
8. Johan Santana, $22,916,667
(2008-13)
9. Matt Cain, $21,250,000
(2012-17)
10. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000
(2012-13)
11. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000
(2011-13)
12. Adam Wainwright, $19,500,000
(2014-18)
13. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000
(2008-12)
14. Barry Zito, $18,000,000
(2007-13)
15. Tim Lincecum, $17,500,
000 (2014-15)
16. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
17. Josh Beckett, $17,000,000
(2011-14)
. . . Jered Weaver, $17,000,000
(2012-16)
19. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000
(2009-13)
. . . John Lackey, $16,500,000
(2010-14)
21. Justin Verlander, $16,000,000
(2010-14)
. . . Anibal Sanchez, $16,000,000
(2013-17)
. . . Hiroki Kuroda, $16,000,000
(2014)
24. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
25. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000
(2010-14)
26. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000
(2012-16)
27. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000
(2001-08)
28. Derek Lowe, $15,000,000
(2009-12)
. . . Hiroki Kuroda, $15,000,000
(2013)
30. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000
(2007-11)
31. Mark Buehrle, $14,500,000
(2012-15)
. . . Jake Peavy, $14,500,000
(2013-14)
33. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000
(2008-11)
34. Roy Halladay, $13,333,333
(2008-10)
35. Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000
(2005-08)
. . . Ryan Dempster, $13,250,000
(2013-14)
37. Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000
(2009-12)
. . . John Danks, $13,000,000
(2012-16)
. . . Edwin Jackson, $13,000,000
(2013-16)
. . . Dan Haren, $13,000,000
(2013)
41. Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000
(2008-11)
42.
Pedro Martinez, $12,500,000 (1998-2003)
. . . Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000
(2009-10)
. . . R.A. Dickey, $12,500,000 (2014-15)
It's hard to know exactly where Lester fits in there, isn't it? He's clearly not Verlander or King Felix, but his overall resume is probably more impressive than Cain. I'd think that in this market he'd be looking at 6/120 most likely.