Really? I don't think Pedro Astacio did very well in the AL at all, although he didn't pitch very much. Plus that was a while ago.
Unless you're talking about some other Pedro? I guess Pedro Beato was ok. Pedro Borbon was pretty meh.
Dombrowski: SP likely from FA. Which should we sign?
- Thread starter nvalvo
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Unless you're talking about some other Pedro? I guess Pedro Beato was ok. Pedro Borbon was pretty meh.
Interesting article. If he is the player Finn says he is then I for one was wrong about him. However, I don't believe he'll leave the West Coast or the NL.
An interesting piece AoM. It should be core authority for posting at SoSH.
I've read it. Patrick is a talented writer, speaker and philosopher. If you get a chance he is lecturing in Australia now. Likes his beer.
From Kevin Daum:
Why are you in the conversation in the first place? Someone invited you into the dynamic. If you truly don't have a stake then find a better use of your time. But if you are there for a reason you need to show your commitment to the process and the people involved by being active and vocal. Speaking up is an important form of honesty. Honesty actually builds trust, especially when combined with tact and empathy.
It's entirely possible that your insightful observations and conclusions have surfaced in the minds of others. Others may share your thoughts and opinions, but may be also unwilling to speak up. By speaking your mind you encourage them to voice their opinions as well. If everyone holds back, the bus may silently head over a cliff. In my organization we believe so strongly that everything should be voiced in some manner that we have a core value of Bring It Up. We would sooner celebrate somebody saying something irrelevant and unimportant than lose ground or have massive failure due to group silence.
Wonderful Quote from Steven J. Bell:
Perhaps risking being the fool is necessary to move forward. Underlying all that is courage – Courage to speak, courage to risk, courage to step forward rather than sit quietly. Courage to break the silence.
From Kevin Daum:
Why are you in the conversation in the first place? Someone invited you into the dynamic. If you truly don't have a stake then find a better use of your time. But if you are there for a reason you need to show your commitment to the process and the people involved by being active and vocal. Speaking up is an important form of honesty. Honesty actually builds trust, especially when combined with tact and empathy.
It's entirely possible that your insightful observations and conclusions have surfaced in the minds of others. Others may share your thoughts and opinions, but may be also unwilling to speak up. By speaking your mind you encourage them to voice their opinions as well. If everyone holds back, the bus may silently head over a cliff. In my organization we believe so strongly that everything should be voiced in some manner that we have a core value of Bring It Up. We would sooner celebrate somebody saying something irrelevant and unimportant than lose ground or have massive failure due to group silence.
Wonderful Quote from Steven J. Bell:
Perhaps risking being the fool is necessary to move forward. Underlying all that is courage – Courage to speak, courage to risk, courage to step forward rather than sit quietly. Courage to break the silence.
Are you going to let us know why you don't think Greinke won't leave the West Coast or the NL lxt?
I won't speak for someone else, but doesn't Greinke LOVE hitting? Since going to the NL in 2013, he's hit .249 with a .657 OPS. He's not incompetent up there.
I could be wrong. It's happened before.
I could be wrong. It's happened before.
If I must.
I've read that he likes the West Coast on a personal level (weather, environment, ocean, relax people, less stress more fun ...) and that the ballparks are great for pitchers. His family likes the West Coast life style - Well Emily does - Bode is still a tad young) He likes the NL because it is a little easier to pitch (eighth batter and pitch slot) and that it's how baseball should be played. Greinke is a good hitter and likes to take his swings. He has also said there is a great deal of money available on the West Coast and teams willing to spend it (SF, LAA & LAD). He enjoyed this years clubhouse now that Beckett and Hanley are gone. He opted out of his contract to get more money, money LAD have and will likely offer him.
There is a great deal written about Greinke's thoughts in the LA papers and the various sports talk shows.
You must. If you're not prepared to back up what you post with those pesky things like facts or links or well thought out reasoning then you shouldn't post. That's what makes a discussion board a discussion board. When it's someone like Greinke, it should be easy for you to find the links to back up your statements. The burden is on the person making the statement, not on the person asking why you said what you did.
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Or, the classic, you can't disprove a negative.
lxt, the problem with what you eventually posted - and I think you actually know this and that fuelled your reluctance - is that you've referenced 'a great deal written' without links and at best you've repurposed articles that may/may not exist for your own use without bothering or trying to establish their context, and at worst you've cherry picked parts of thinks to fit your point.
Articles don't exist in a mythological vacuum of bias. Take, for example, every single article ever written about The Wily Veteran, the Hotshot Rookie, the Guy Who Is In The Best Shape of His Career. They don't really serve a purpose and over the years all of us, and I assume you, have come to regard them as irrelevant and even amusing. Who's next years 'best shape of his life' going to be? Hanley? What about the Hotshot Rooke... Henry Owens? The Wily Veteran... Pedroia?
Those are an extreme example, an obvious one. But they're no less glaring than many of the stories you're referencing but not quoting. If you had we would be in a position to actually look at what you're basing it on. They'd also show your frame. Where are you getting the stories from? ESPN or other clickbait sites of no value? A puff piece? Something critical and of interest?
As far as cherry picking, you cited your news coverage of showing Greinke being happy in LA now that 'Beckett and Hanley' aren't there but didn't reference the widely discussed Jeff Passan story from earlier this year on the 'inside the clubhouse' style book by Molly Knight that contained this gem about Greinke:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/book--disdain-for-yasiel-puig-by-dodgers-teammates-no-longer-a-secret-212239227.html
But then you could say that article was cherry picked to paint Puig in a bad light and Greinke was just a part of the story and I would reply "that's exactly my fucking point" (because I swear a lot).
Referencing general media reading without context is near-useless. It's worse when that's what you're backing your post up with.
lxt, the problem with what you eventually posted - and I think you actually know this and that fuelled your reluctance - is that you've referenced 'a great deal written' without links and at best you've repurposed articles that may/may not exist for your own use without bothering or trying to establish their context, and at worst you've cherry picked parts of thinks to fit your point.
Articles don't exist in a mythological vacuum of bias. Take, for example, every single article ever written about The Wily Veteran, the Hotshot Rookie, the Guy Who Is In The Best Shape of His Career. They don't really serve a purpose and over the years all of us, and I assume you, have come to regard them as irrelevant and even amusing. Who's next years 'best shape of his life' going to be? Hanley? What about the Hotshot Rooke... Henry Owens? The Wily Veteran... Pedroia?
Those are an extreme example, an obvious one. But they're no less glaring than many of the stories you're referencing but not quoting. If you had we would be in a position to actually look at what you're basing it on. They'd also show your frame. Where are you getting the stories from? ESPN or other clickbait sites of no value? A puff piece? Something critical and of interest?
As far as cherry picking, you cited your news coverage of showing Greinke being happy in LA now that 'Beckett and Hanley' aren't there but didn't reference the widely discussed Jeff Passan story from earlier this year on the 'inside the clubhouse' style book by Molly Knight that contained this gem about Greinke:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/book--disdain-for-yasiel-puig-by-dodgers-teammates-no-longer-a-secret-212239227.html
That paints a pretty stark objection to the idea he's 'happy' now that Beckett and Hanley are gone.
But then you could say that article was cherry picked to paint Puig in a bad light and Greinke was just a part of the story and I would reply "that's exactly my fucking point" (because I swear a lot).
Referencing general media reading without context is near-useless. It's worse when that's what you're backing your post up with.
Even if Greinke doesn't insist on going somewhere where he can hit, that's about half a win of value per year that an AL team wouldn't benefit from. I'd say that makes it significantly more likely that an NL team will be the high bidder.
So you think an AL team won't bid as high because they will lose the .5 WAR? I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous. So if the Yankees or Red Sox wanted to empty their wallets for a starting pitcher and offer someone Verlander money they would look at Greinke and not top the Dodgers offer because Greinke's "ability" to hit .220?
I think a group of teams who see Greinke as a ~4.5 win player are more likely to bid higher than a group which sees him as a ~4 win player, yes. Teams don't pay money for a player because they want that player per say, they pay money because the player will help them win games. Greinke helps NL teams more than he helps AL teams, so there is a good chance NL teams will be willing to pay more.
In your example, if the Yankees or Red Sox have roughly the same opinion of Greinke's pitching ability and the same feel for the free agent pitching market as the Dodgers, and the Dodgers have made Greinke the highest offer they are willing to make, then the Red Sox or Yankees probably won't top an offer which pays Greinke for his ability to both pitch and hit .220. I'm not sure why this is an unreasonable claim.
If an AL team has a substantially higher opinion of his pitching ability than any other big market team, or an AL team decides to give him significantly more than they believe he is actually worth, then he will probably go to the american league. I don't see any reason to assume that american league teams are more likely to do either of those than NL teams, and therefore we should see a return to the NL as more likely than a move to the AL.
Moreover, if Greinke prefers to face 8 real hitters every 9 at-bats, and prefers to hit himself, it stands to reason that he will prefer an NL team to an AL team. And I don't think there is any reason to think that teams in the AL are more likely to be the high bidder than NL teams. It's not 2003 anymore when the Yankees and Red Sox had the financial might to bend the rest of the league to their wills.
I think the money for Greinke and Price is going to be so scary in the end that the prudent move will be to sign Johnny Cueto to a 5-year deal and move on. I said this earlier in the thread but I think he is the only free agent who might prefer Boston to other deep-pocketed franchises.
If Cueto could be had for 5/120 I would do that in a heartbeat. I just think someone out there will offer 6-7 years and that is where I'm out.
Agreed. If Cueto gets 6-7 years, I imagine Zimmermann will as well. Who do you think is DD's fallback plan if the money gets crazy with the "Big 4?" I say Samardzija based on mileage and stuff alone, though I could also be talked into Leake based on age.
Talk radio should be fun if the big upgrade to the rotation is giving 18 mil a year to Mike Leake.
So, his 15 hits and 3 RBI's last year translate to an NL team over-bidding an AL team? Or does his "joy of hitting" means he'd take less money to stay in the NL. I'm confused.
He appears to be a good hitter, which makes him worth more to NL teams than AL teams. Assuming teams make bids more or less in line with what he is worth to them, on the aggregate NL teams will make slightly stronger (meaning higher salary) offers than AL teams.
He has no fallback plan - he pushed his chips into the middle of the table with his remarks after the Kimbrel trade. The fans and media now expect one of the big guys. Dombrowski and the team will get slaughtered in the media if he tries to pass off Samardzija or Leake as the answer to the team's rotation woes. The 2016 Papi farewell season will certainly help ticket sales, but anything less than playoff contention this season will do further long-term damage to the Red Sox brand.
His fall back plan could very well be riding with what he's got and seeing where the team is in July. The team doesn't *need* to snag one of the "big 4" free agent starting pitchers to be contenders in 2016. Obviously, getting one of them helps their chances, but the success of the 2016 season doesn't and shouldn't hinge on whether or not they sign one of Price, Cueto, Greinke or Zimmermann.
And they really shouldn't give a flying fuck what the media will say about whatever decisions are made.
That a good-hitting pitcher might be worth more to an NL makes sense in theory, but in practice I'm not sure it ultimately makes much difference. Jon Lester is probably among the most inept hitters to pick up a bat in MLB, but I would guess that it didn't really play much of a factor in Chicago's thinking. I would think things like how much money a team has to spend, how much they need an SP, teams' perceived competition with other teams for a player's services, and where the team is in their success cycle would swamp any slight differences in value due to pitcher hitting.
If Dombrowski intends to stand pat, he should have been more careful with his remarks. He's had plenty of time to throw cold water on the idea of acquiring a top of the rotation starter this winter but hasn't done so. I think he's smart enough to know that he's setting expectations pretty high.
I fully agree, but none of those factors would seem to favor AL or NL teams in particular. Of course, unless someone is setting odds on where Greinke winds up this makes very little difference.
I also think he's smart enough not to make reactionary signings to placate the media. What he says really doesn't matter at the end of the day towards his motivations. I don't think a guy with his track record signed on to be told to do stuff by the Tom Werners of the world complaining about nesn ratings. Ymmv.
Who said he intends to stand pat? It's not as though he's guaranteeing that the Red Sox will have one of those top-flight free agent starters on the roster come Opening Day. He's said they intend to pursue a top of the rotation arm through free agency. Pursuing does not equate to signing. If the price for any of them proves too high or they all elect to sign elsewhere for whatever reason, the fall back plan doesn't have to be signing a second/third tier guy (Samardzija, Leake, etc) and "passing him off" as an ace, or frankly, spending any amount of additional money just to placate the "media".
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 4m4 minutes ago
The #Dodgers, in their quest for marquee starting pitching, have identified free agent Jordan Zimmermann as one of their top targets.
The #Dodgers, in their quest for marquee starting pitching, have identified free agent Jordan Zimmermann as one of their top targets.
The Dodgers have become the old Red Sox and Yankees....connected to every free agent available.
The Sox shouldn't care about the media per se, but they have to worry about fan perceptions. Their business model depends on the pricing power that comes with being a contender, and they've been out of it two years in a row. Pre-season ticket and ad sales matter more than sales after July 31. I'm sure they really want a top-of-the-rotation acquisition this winter to build credibility; but there are only four FAs, to be generous, who fill the bill, and there's a lot of competition. To my mind a trade remains more likely.
FYI
Jim Bowden @JimBowden_ESPN 58s58 seconds ago
What's next for the Boston #RedSox? Dave Dombrowski will have the answers for you tomorrow on our #FrontOffice show Sirius 209 XM 89 10am et
Jim Bowden @JimBowden_ESPN 58s58 seconds ago
What's next for the Boston #RedSox? Dave Dombrowski will have the answers for you tomorrow on our #FrontOffice show Sirius 209 XM 89 10am et
Ken Rosenthal was on MLB Network and said the Red Sox are "hell bent on getting one of David Price or Zach Greinke." They "will bid very high on both of them".
Am I the only one who is kind of "meh" on David Price?
He's certainly good enough to be considered an ace and will certainly help, but he throws with the same hand as four of our top seven starters (Miley, Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) and it wouldn't take much to have an entirely left handed rotation.
And he's kind of an asshole.
He's certainly good enough to be considered an ace and will certainly help, but he throws with the same hand as four of our top seven starters (Miley, Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens) and it wouldn't take much to have an entirely left handed rotation.
And he's kind of an asshole.
You're not alone Ras. I'm meh on him as well. Objectively, he is the best pitcher available and certainly deserving of the biggest contract handed out this winter, but from a subjective standpoint, I just don't like him. He's everything I disliked about John Lackey before he signed here, only amped up by at least 50%. The only thing that redeemed Lackey for me was his performance in the 2013 post-season. I suppose if Price can turn in a similar post-season performance for the Red Sox en route to another title, I might find it easier to root for him.
The rotation of lefties thing is of a lesser concern, but it is something I'd keep in mind if I were Dombrowski and found myself in a position where I can choose which free agent signs here. Like if it came down to Price vs Greinke, or Price vs Cueto, and the dollars/years were palatable no matter who I signed, I might lean righty just because the best young pitchers in the organization are lefties. Sadly, I don't think Dombrowski will be in such a position.
David Price is the only FA SP I really really want to sign. Of course there's big risk but he is both the best and safest guy to sign. Absolutely elite and absolutely consistent and durable (replete with the physique, mechanics, and work ethic to stay that way), and fwiw his teammates always seem to love him and he is perfectly comfortable in a leadership role.
I don't think Greinke is near as good a pitcher or as safe an investment. And I don't like any of the 2nd tier FA SP much either, even at their "lower' price.
I don't think Greinke is near as good a pitcher or as safe an investment. And I don't like any of the 2nd tier FA SP much either, even at their "lower' price.
I couldn't care less whether David Price is an asshole or not, unless he's the kind of asshole that makes it harder for his team to win, and I've never seen any sign of that.
I do give a shit that he is likely to cost so much that it's asking the moon and the stars, in terms of health and continued excellence, for him to earn his contract. But he's as close to a blue-chip stock as the SP market ever gets, so if signing him is a mistake, signing any big-ticket pitcher is a mistake (which is possible).
All the rotation-of-lefties problem does is give us an opportunity to deal from strength.
I do give a shit that he is likely to cost so much that it's asking the moon and the stars, in terms of health and continued excellence, for him to earn his contract. But he's as close to a blue-chip stock as the SP market ever gets, so if signing him is a mistake, signing any big-ticket pitcher is a mistake (which is possible).
All the rotation-of-lefties problem does is give us an opportunity to deal from strength.
As long as we aren't saying that after a playoff outing in line with many of his prior efforts to date.
Yep, just getting to the playoffs would be a marked improvement over the last two years....
Bringing in a top FA SP almost guarantees a trade of an existing starter .. which, more than like would be Miley. He should fetch a pretty good middle reliever which would finish off the bullpen quite nicely.
The rest of the bunch would all seem to have considerable upside - from what they displayed last year - so the FO should be reluctant to trade them for pennies on the dollar.
Miley is WYSIWYG ..
I'm a little "meh" on Price because of his age. Hopefully that won't be a problem until he's 34-35. In any case he's the best pitcher on the market and the others have bigger red flags. Price is younger than Greinke, and doesn't have the same injury concerns as Cueto or Zimmerman. Of the three, he has recently pitched successfully in the AL; Greinke is about 2-3 MPH slower than when he pitched with the Royals in the 2000s.
Signing David Price will likely bump out Johnson from the rotation. Assuming we'll have a 5 man rotation, Buchholz and Porcello would be in it to start the year. We'll have to see what the Red Sox FO decides, but I wouldn't be surprised if the rotation also includes Miley and Kelly (unless they've given up on making Kelly an MLB starter). Owens and Rodriguez can be stashed at AAA. So to start, you're either talking about 2 or 3 left-handed starters.
Signing David Price will likely bump out Johnson from the rotation. Assuming we'll have a 5 man rotation, Buchholz and Porcello would be in it to start the year. We'll have to see what the Red Sox FO decides, but I wouldn't be surprised if the rotation also includes Miley and Kelly (unless they've given up on making Kelly an MLB starter). Owens and Rodriguez can be stashed at AAA. So to start, you're either talking about 2 or 3 left-handed starters.
And yeah I am ok with assuming the last few years of the deal will likely be write offs. The bet is that he stays good for 4-5yrs, and then we carry his deadweight after our current deadweight expires.
I don't like huge contracts for 30+ YO pitchers, but I think Price is as sure a thing as there is.
He may be somewhat of an asshole, but all indications are that he's always been a great teammate and he'd rip your heart out to win. Sort of like Josh Beckett.
He may be somewhat of an asshole, but all indications are that he's always been a great teammate and he'd rip your heart out to win. Sort of like Josh Beckett.
