How does it not? He's not saying he never pitched in the East, he's saying (apparently) that he no longer wants to.
But is that actually Price saying he doesn't want to pitch in the AL East, or some reporter guessing that based on Price's list of supposed favorite teams? I mean the Cubs made the list and if you look at the 2015 numbers for park factor 3 of the NL central ballparks are in the top 15, with 3 of the top 6 HR friendly ballparks.
It doesn't really matter to the point I was making, that whether or not Price had already pitched in the AL East really has no bearing on if he wants to in the future.
But you're also giving up your own 23-year-old hitter who's better than Heyward.
Eh, I don't know. As long as a guy is performing great, a guy's personality quirks are great. A "no BS" attitude is endearing when a guy is mowing down hitters. If a guy struggles or stinks, fans' perception of that "no BS" tends to be "this guy is a weird asshole." Beckett was kind of a no BS guy, and it didn't seem like he was particularly popular with fans when he wasn't pitching well. Sadly, when times are tough, it seems like it's usually in a player's best interest to keep their mouths shut, or only open it to mouth platitudes. Fans don't seem to have a ton of sympathy for the struggles of highly-paid players.
I don't want them to trade Betts, who is on his way to becoming one of my favorite all-time players. But the logic would be that the team would be better off with Heyward + Harvey than with Betts + Price. We'd rather have Betts than Heyward, but we'd also rather have Harvey than Price.
Yes, that is the idea. I think it's sound. I do have reservations about Heyward, but he's just so young...sign him to a seven year deal, and the last year he's only 32.
Not that it changes your logic all that much, but I'm guessing the difference will be closer to 7 or 8 million in AAV. I get this argument, but the age 36 season could be a real bear on the back end (assuming crowdsourcing is relatively accurate on years).
You think Harvey is that much better than Price that you'd rather have Harvey and Heyward than Price and Betts? I think Betts is better than Heyward now, will be better going forward and will obviously come MUCH cheaper.
Well, for a start there is the difference in the two pitchers' pitching mechanics and injury histories. David Price has the type of mechanics - easy arm action, back leg drive, and considerable stride length - that is textbook. And while I don't know if there are research studies that support this, one of the perceived benefits of correct mechanics is that less strain is placed on the arm, presumably mitigating risk of injury. Importantly, Price's career supports this conclusion as he's never had a significant arm injury and only once pitched less than 200 innings (186 innings 2013) in any full season in the majors.
With any of these signings the end of the deal could be bad. That said, I'm far more confident that Price will retain value at 37 than Cueto will at 36. Like I said in the previous post, I'm pretty sure you need to go back to the last good year of Whitey Ford's career (in 1965) to find an example of a sub-6 foot starter pitching at a star level at age 36. Do we really think that Cueto -with his long injury history and quirky delivery - is going to be the next one to do it?
Isn't 6 feet sort of a random cutoff though? Glavine and Maddux were both 6 feet tall--one inch taller than Cueto. Is that one inch a significant factor in why they pitched well into their late 30's?
And lord knows men who are 5'11 don't have 6' listed in the program. I think Pedroia is listed at like 5' 10''.
Right. What the impending Heyward deal means to me is that we should extend Betts yesterday.
True. Though I think a listed height of 5 11' probably actually means 5 10' or 5 9'. The bigger concern to me is Cueto's crazy delivery, his injury history, and his spotty performance (and early season complaints of elbow soreness) in the past year.
If you're filling one position with an expensive FA and the other with a cost-controlled young player, how much does it matter whether the cost-controlled player came up in your organization or somebody else's? I mean, sure it matters a little, because there's an inherent value in somebody who has achieved some degree of success in your specific environment, and an inherent risk in transplanting somebody (hello, Carl Crawford). But I don't see why it should matter a lot.
It certainly doesn't, but in the case of positional player vs pitcher, I think a lot can be said for a limited track record being more predictive for a hitter than a pitcher. I may be completely wrong, but I would wager that either through injury or just sample size, if you did a study of players through their first 2-3 years and then over their careers, hitters would have a higher success rate of maintaining their performance level over a longer period than SPs do. Again, I could be pulling that out of my ass.
Just to be an ass - thought I'd look at this guy.
Luis Tiant: just barely six feet if that, crazy delivery, injury history, brilliant early career, not great 28-30, great ages 31-35, not bad 36-38
Theoretically shouldn't the difference in value and length of contracts for pitchers and position players account for that difference in future performance and decline already?
Theoretically, sure. Realistically I don't see it.
He's Cueto's best case scenario, definitely.
What do any of us know as to whether Price will age better than Cueto.? 2014 was ace level. The first part of 2015, before his trade to KC, Cueto nearly matched, wins excluded, his 2014 season. The Tiant comparisons for Cueto are at least accurate in one respect. Both suffered some arm miseries before they ever played for the Sox. Tiant had pretty good health for most of the rest of his time with the Sox. Who is to say that Price will age better than CC Sabathia? Educated opinions differ but nobody yet knows if Price will turn into the equivalent 2015 version of Peyton Manning from this weekend at any time without warning? While they are radio silent at this point, the Yankees are the most predictable team where Price could sign for full price. He is built to dominate in Yankee Stadium. Likewise, Cueto seems like the most logical target for Boston to find their ace, even with the risk, once the dust settles..
But you can't brush aside that risk. And while I 100% agree with you that Cueto will be the easiest player to attract to the Red Sox*, that doesn't in of itself make him the logical signing for the team. Because honestly I don't think you are right that educated opinions differ about who is likely to be better going forward. I mean, the consensus answer to that question is the very reason Price is projected to cost more money. Price has not only been healthier throughout his career, he's the far superior player -both recently and for his career. So the question is, is the difference between the two worth an extra 6 million of AAV and an extra year on the contract. And I suppose that is the question that educated opinions might differ on. Price will be hard for the Sox to sign. I'm arguing that the Sox should be aggressive in their pursuit and shouldn't hesitate to offer at least 7/$210M.
Wait. You mean to tell me leading up to a $150M-200M contract negotiations the player is indicating he may not be all that interested in signing AND the team is publicly indicating they may not be interested in signing him anyways?
That was my concern at first too. But the more I read about it, the less concerned I am. It sounds like he has long since figured out how to manage the condition, and he doesn't see it as a big deal anymore. When was the last time it became an issue for him, his teammates, or management? As far as I can tell, the answer is that the last time was the first time. You may be right that he'll be looking for a more laid-back working environment, but if he decides to come here, I don't think we should be worried about it.
Fair or not, this team cannot afford to risk signing the 2016 version of Justin Masterson. Pass.
Averaging 2.7 over 3 seasons is an interesting way of spinning 4.8/1.7/1.5.
It's not just injuries; it's also a rising LD% and a declining K%. I don't know that Latos would bump Owens or Kelly down the depth chart at this point.
I stand corrected. I forgot about Travis ... Dah! You are 100% correct that Holt has the IF locked down and Travis can play the corners. That just leaves a 4th OF. Not seeing Bryce there so probably someone from the outside.
