Your arguing semantics and ignoring my actual point. I conceded they were, 2-5, projected to be "slightly below average". If you want to argue I'm way off because they are actually average knock yourself out.
Dombrowski 2016
- Thread starter gammoseditor
- Start date
In 20 years he won 1 world series. Seems average to slightly above to me. Not the type of guy you give the job to without a search.
Over the last 6 seasons, he was over 2.6 fWAR three times and under three times. Seems like 2.6 is a fair median projection.
Most of SoSH would have taken the under because Buchholz seems to be the most irrationally despised Red Sox pitcher since Byung-Hyun Kim, but they would have also taken the under last year and had been wrong.
It's not about that particular point. It's about you looking back, grabbing the first thing that resembles evidence in your favor and shoehorning it into your narrative without even taking the time to try and understand the data that you are looking at.
If you can't be bothered to develop a basic grasp on simple concepts like what macro-level WAR means, why should anyone take anything you are saying here seriously?
You are in such a rush to be right you you don't realize that you're not actually supporting your argument.
Don't disagree really with any of this, but would add that trying to get into really assessing opportunity cost in these kinds of things is a total rabbit hole becuase even when a deal gets done, we don't know what else was on the table or what other potential partners wanted, and we never will.
A pretty good rough metric is simply whether, in hindsight, a guy has given up assets that really came back to bite him, or missed big on major acquisitions of ML talent. DD has a pretty good track record there, and no obvious flops in his brief time here.
Cherington got fleeced in a couple of pretty big trades involving ML talent and missed big on talent evaluation in free agency as well. Ten years from now, his Red Sox headstone will probably say something about great player development combined with poor major league talent evals and a questionable trading record.
It's early for DD, but based on available evidence I feel much more comfortable with his evaluation of ML talent and his trade chops. The other thing you are getting at in your discussion is asset allocation and roster balance; I think there were definitely times in the past (though it may have been owner-driven) where he got a little too GFIN. If we can glean anything from him keeping Hazen around and leaving the devlopment side intact, I hope it's that he won't get too out of whack with balancing present and future value. But so far I am on board.
I don't see where I did what you are accusing me of. Someone else brought up Eduardo Rodriguez's injury as a reason we have had pitching problems. I responded by saying it seems our "injury luck" has been average. Pitchers get hurt all the time. I then pointed out his projection was 1.6 fWAR to point out it shouldn't be a massive loss anyway. Especially considering it's our only injury of note. I didn't post that stat and I don't know how many innings it is over. If you want to add additional context please do so. Accusing me of not understanding the numbers is a stretch. If its over 170 innings instead of 200, which your post hints at, does the 30 innings really matter on the larger point that his one injury shouldn't be an excuse for terrible pitching from the 4-5 slots?
I think Dombrowski has been who we thought he was from day one. My opinion hasn't changed much, I saw him as somewhere in the top 3rd in baseball.
-Price was a no-brainer and few questioned the thought process aside from the opt out clause and the dollar amount seemed in line with the market. He is currently righting the ship and I'm not too worried about him.
-I hated the Kimbrel (being paid at value) deal and still do, though I am curious what teams will pay for elite arms like Miller and Betances for comparison.
-Aside from maybe being concerned about Carson Smith's fade in the 2nd half, I loved that deal at the time and would do it again. And Wade Miley has been no (or negligibly) better than the Sox' 4th and 5th starter options. He has in fact, been terrible. I don't believe Elias was ever really considered as more than a 5th starter/long man, and it is far too early to close the book on him.
-Chris Young has worked out nicely. David Murphy retired, so they have had to live with Brentz and a mish mash of terrible when Holt went down. Help is on the way.
-Hill and Ziegler were gotten cheap. None of the prospects project as average major leaguers or above. The fact that he showed restraint on Ziegler was encouraging.
-I'm on board with Pomeranz. I wasn't at first, but this is a win now market, and as long as he doesn't turn into Steinbreinner, I trust him to make the big move.
-Koji has gotten old (not a DD signing), Taz is (shockingly) fatigued. Kimbrel was shagging flyballs which clearly were in Robbie Ross' zone.
He had a very good foundation to work with, has made the obvious moves to improve on them, hasn't panicked, hasn't added any untradeable contracts, has improved the pen on paper, and when bench depth was lacking he went and got Hill which also gives Marco some time to develop.
My main quibble is with how he handled the Swihart situation, but for all we know, pitchers may not like throwing to him or much prefer Vazquez, Hanigan and Leon over him or something else we won't be privy to.
All of this changes on a dime if he moves Moncada or Benintendi - though I think some of the panic that he'll do something stupid with a consensus #1 prospect and close to major league ready OF who fills an immediate need is a little much.
-Price was a no-brainer and few questioned the thought process aside from the opt out clause and the dollar amount seemed in line with the market. He is currently righting the ship and I'm not too worried about him.
-I hated the Kimbrel (being paid at value) deal and still do, though I am curious what teams will pay for elite arms like Miller and Betances for comparison.
-Aside from maybe being concerned about Carson Smith's fade in the 2nd half, I loved that deal at the time and would do it again. And Wade Miley has been no (or negligibly) better than the Sox' 4th and 5th starter options. He has in fact, been terrible. I don't believe Elias was ever really considered as more than a 5th starter/long man, and it is far too early to close the book on him.
-Chris Young has worked out nicely. David Murphy retired, so they have had to live with Brentz and a mish mash of terrible when Holt went down. Help is on the way.
-Hill and Ziegler were gotten cheap. None of the prospects project as average major leaguers or above. The fact that he showed restraint on Ziegler was encouraging.
-I'm on board with Pomeranz. I wasn't at first, but this is a win now market, and as long as he doesn't turn into Steinbreinner, I trust him to make the big move.
-Koji has gotten old (not a DD signing), Taz is (shockingly) fatigued. Kimbrel was shagging flyballs which clearly were in Robbie Ross' zone.
He had a very good foundation to work with, has made the obvious moves to improve on them, hasn't panicked, hasn't added any untradeable contracts, has improved the pen on paper, and when bench depth was lacking he went and got Hill which also gives Marco some time to develop.
My main quibble is with how he handled the Swihart situation, but for all we know, pitchers may not like throwing to him or much prefer Vazquez, Hanigan and Leon over him or something else we won't be privy to.
All of this changes on a dime if he moves Moncada or Benintendi - though I think some of the panic that he'll do something stupid with a consensus #1 prospect and close to major league ready OF who fills an immediate need is a little much.
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Wow, this is a remarkably awful summation of his career, not to mention probably the worst metric by which to judge an executive's performance.
In Montreal, as farm director and GM, he helped lay the foundation for the 1994 Expos, who had the best record in baseball at the time of the strike, was loaded with top end players and would likely have done quite well in the playoffs. The strike killed baseball in Montreal (in part) and soon the team had to be dismantled, so we don't know how far they could have made it, but that was an amazing group of talent.
He moved to Florida in 1992 to helm an expansion franchise. By 1997 they won a WS, with the following players acquired by DD: Kevin Brown, Moises Alou, Bobby Bonilla, Al Liter, Livan Hernandez, Edgar Renteria, Louis Castillo, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Co -...wait let me just link the team page
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Florida_Marlins_season#Roster) considering he literally built the entire team and organization from nothing and won a WS in the span of 5 years and another shortly after that. He was then told to blow it up. The moves he made blowing it up set the team up to do the same thing and win it again six years later (Mike Lowell, AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Derek Lee, Brad Penny, etc).
He went to Detroit in 2003, when they were coming of a season losing 119 games. That's not a typo, they were literally the second worst team in ML history edging the '62 Mets by one game. He had that team back in the World Series in three years. The players he acquired via different routes during his tenure in Detroit are too long to list (you can see them here if you'd like http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dave_Dombrowski), but his Tigers teams went to 2 WS, 2 other ALCS and the playoffs a fifth time, with four consecutive division titles in the process.
He was hired to do exactly what he has done in his career and what Henry wanted - turn a team around quickly and set them up for a long run. He was the best man for the job.
This thread is ridiculous. If you don't think Dombrowski has done a good job since coming here, you don't know what you're talking about.
You can think some of the things he's done are bad moves and still think he's done a good job overall.
I can smell what's going to happen over the next several years. The team is going to have some success on the field and people are going to insist the guy responsible is.bad at his job anyway, just like when Dan Duquette was GM.
You can think some of the things he's done are bad moves and still think he's done a good job overall.
I can smell what's going to happen over the next several years. The team is going to have some success on the field and people are going to insist the guy responsible is.bad at his job anyway, just like when Dan Duquette was GM.
People need to just let the Rich Hill thing go. Dombrowski has even said they wanted him back but he preferred Oakland's offer. Pretty easy to infer there that Hill's preference was for a starting job somewhere.
For that matter, this extends to all secondary SP options. Players aren't blind to the roster they're joining. The Red sox had Price (clear #1), Porcello (getting $20M so not losing a starting job short of falling completely on his face), Rodriguez (high upside youngster who did well his rookie season), Buchholz (a roll of the dice, so if you catch a good year you're totally iced out), and Joe Kelly (looked like he turned a corner to end 2015). That was backed up by an interesting knuckle baller with good ML production in limited stints, a pair of consensus top 100 pitching prospects at the AAA level, and a guy with almost a full season's worth of ML starts under his belt and a middle of the road career ERA.
Now it turns out the last three starters and last three mL hedges turned into pumpkins, but from the outside looking in a middle of the road starter would be real worried that he'd find himself as a 6th starter or riding the AAA shuttle if choosing Boston.
In fact, Dombrowski' stated interest in bringing Hill back is a pretty clear indication he wasn't totally happy with the options, but at some point the only guys you can sign aren't any better than the guys you don't like in your own system, so why give away money and make roster moves for the sake of making roster moves?
I really think folks here don't look enough around the league. Compare what DD's done to the current shitshow in Arizona, who just sent Shelby Miller down to AAA after they traded three prospects for him last winter, including the number 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson.
Your argument is that the 2-5 slots in the rotation weren't projected to even be decent this year. This has been proven demonstrably false and yet here you are still arguing. The Eduardo bit was a micro-level example of a macro-level problem with how you are arguing in this thread.
You've decided that Dombrowski isn't very good and are twisting any little thing you can into an argument that supports your hypothesis without even looking closely enough to see if it actually does.
Again... Why should anyone take anything you are saying here seriously?
According to his wikipedia page he went to Detroit prior to 2002 and was GM of that awful team. Not his fault, it was his 2nd year, but he didn't get them to the world series in 3 years. It took 5. They then missed the playoffs the next 4 years. Overall he's been a GM for 22 seasons. His teams have 1867 wins and 2117 losses. Wikiepedia page linked below. He rebuilt two teams and those losses aren't on him early on. But 6 playoff appearances in 22 years doesn't scream great GM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Dombrowski
Someone posted some facts and I conceded they showed a slightly below average projection. How about you argue facts of my posts, or if you don't take me seriously ignore me altogether.
I didn't say he wasn't very good. I said he wasn't the best possible hire. You keep putting words in my mouth I didn't say. Why should I take you seriously? I think I'm done responding to your posts. Congratulations. You win.
You want to compare them to the worst run teams in the league? I want to compare them to the best.
Sorry, you're right he went in 2002, which was his first season, not his second, so he got the 119 loss team to the WS in 4 years. My mistake.
If you can't understand how his win loss record is impacted by the fact he had an expansion team, then had a team that he was forced to firesale, then inherited a team which lost 119 games, I'm not sure what to tell you. Not that it would matter, since you're refusing to even have an honest discussion in this thread.
I said the losses early on aren't on him. Just providing more context to your post.
Then why cite his WL record with those included? It's disingenuous at best. Identify the teams you don't think he is responsible for - (off the top of my head, I would list the first 3 years in florida, at a minimum; the three years after the firesale; and his first two in Detroit) and re-tally the numbers.
Who do you think is a top GM, btw?
If you delete his 10 worst seasons it comes to around a .510 winning% but deleting 10 seasons seemed like cherry picking too. I don't think there's a fair way to do it.
My choice would have been Neal Huntington, but I would have been open to a lot of guys depending on the reason. Dayton Moore, Theo Epstein, Billy Bean, and Andrew Friedman weren't coming here. I'd be interested in guys who work for any of them though.
The Cubs stole Theo by giving him the title DD has. I wouldn't have minded returning the favor to get Jed Hoyer back.
Awesome breakdown of top 100 prospects DD has dealt in his career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-dombrowski-has-been-good-at-trading-prospects/
When Jurassic Carl turned out as the best player he lost (whose bat shit craziness nullified much of that talent), you've done pretty well for yourself.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-dombrowski-has-been-good-at-trading-prospects/
When Jurassic Carl turned out as the best player he lost (whose bat shit craziness nullified much of that talent), you've done pretty well for yourself.
What on earth has Jed Hoyer done to give you more confidence in him than Dombrowski?
I'm saying take the top GM's/President's of baseball operations and interview their top assistants to see how good they are. I don't know how you would evaluate any of these guys without interviewing them. There are lots of guys in a baseball operations department. You can't really give credit unless you are in every single meeting which no one can be in. Jed has been with Theo every step of the way with the Cubs and Red Sox. I'm saying a search should have been conducted. I threw some names out there because someone asked me. But I don't know who the best guy is. I'm disappointed the Red Sox didn't seem to do much of a search.
And that fangraphs article mentions Trevor Hoffman, who is clearly better than Carl Everett. Their criteria also excludes him trading away Randy Johnson from the Expos.
I think we had a chance to get him, but MLB would have had to find another Ambassador for Inclusion.
The Sox tried to hire Beane back in 2002-2003, just before they hired Theo. He wanted to stay on the West Coast to be closer to his daughter.
I know.
EDIT--sorry, people who don't know that there are 2 Billy Bean(e)s is a pet peave of mine.
EDIT--sorry, people who don't know that there are 2 Billy Bean(e)s is a pet peave of mine.
So rather than hire one of the top GMs/Presidents in baseball, who's a free agent and has a history with the owner, hire someone that worked for him at some point?
Edit: And holy shit to your last sentence. You realize he got prime Gary Sheffield in that trade right? For a relief prospect. And what Randy Johnson looked like at the time he moved him?
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It's where Belichick came from. It's where Theo came from. I'm not opposed to any specific hire. I'm opposed to the lack of a process. There was no search.
I also think they wanted to get away from the Theo Epstein era anyway, so hiring Hoyer wouldn't help.
It's also where Ben Cherington came from. And literally hundreds of coaches, GMs, managers, that turned into crap came from. The reason you do that is because you can't get the guy they worked under. Hence Theo's hiring.
What results? The lengths people have gone to defend DD amaze me. He hasn't done anything yet. You do realize he's not the one that signed Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley jr., Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, and Steven Wright don't you? That he gave up a huge group of prospects for a closer who has a 3.5 ERA and is now hurt when he himself proved you can get a pretty good reliever (Brad Ziegler) without giving up two top 100 prospects plus two more guys. Now he's traded the best pitching prospect to be traded since I don't know when and it's more pats on the back. If the season ended today we'd be in a one game playoff. Great job DD.
What results indeed. The season isn't over yet. Let's not write the guy off or throw him a parade until that happens, yeah?
Theo won a WS in large part to the guys Duquette brought in. Does he not get credit for 2004? Anything that DD might get credit for, you have an excuse for why he doesn't. You just don't like the guy or are the biggest prospect humper around. Is it his fault he inherited a team with Xander, Betts, JBJ, etc? You seem to think it is, and are holding it against him. Did you do the same for Theo in 2004? I do hope so. But since he's your boy and you are all about Jed Hoyer, I doubt it. Wasn't Theo also gone when the Josh Beckett trade happened? So does he get credit for 2007 or no?
And yet you've spent how many posts disagreeing with/ignoring literally almost every other post in response to your stances poking holes in them and showing you why your process is shitty. Based off the fact you think they should have interviewed someone else.
The lengths you are going to to try to convince everyone that you're right - when virtually no one agrees with anything you type - is what is truly amazing here. There's talk in backwash the last couple days about improving quality on the main board. One thing that everyone (seemingly) learned early here is when you get little to no support for your position, it's probably time to drop it. Instead, you're tripling and quadrupling down.
Either make better arguments or consider rethinking your position. You know literally zero about what process went into hiring him or what factors played into from the ownership group. You complain he's not proven enough and wanted to hire people that are far less proven.
Maybe give it some time and let's see how the season plays out before you start complaining about hiring DD?
Well, this was the worst team in the AL East and a half season later is a playoff contender on the rise...
When DD came on board there was much fury about "HES GONNA TRADE AWAY ALL THE KIDS! BUBYE X AND MOOKIE AND EVERYONE!"... Yet so far the only major prospect he's traded is Espinoza, for a guy that maybe Espinoza turns into in five years. Or doesn't. I keep seeing people say Roger Clemens, they gotta knock it off with that since maybe a handful of other MLB pitchers have had careers as good as Clemens EVER. That's prospect humping at its finest.
He's built around a solid core of young players with Moncada and Benintendi on the immediate horizon and I don't see him moving those guys. He's made the big league club deep, even more so once the injured come back. I do even feel he gets one more bottom of the rotation arm before the deadline.
He's operated in a way that is transparent and makes sense, and hasn't shown that he panics, yes in a short amount of time for sure but its a far cry from the Cherington era
*or what everyone else has said above*
Ah, my ancient enemy rears his top-heavy noggin and stumbles around like one of those sausage suit racers in Milwaukee.
Duquette's specific deficits are enough to earn him "bad at his job" despite the very obvious good things he also accomplished.
When they first signed DD after a decade of Theo and BC my first thought was this was like going from Tito to Bobby V. However, I must say I am rather pleased at the job he has done in the offseason and filling obvious holes this mid season. Sure, he has paid a high price to acquire guys like Price, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, although the true price for the latter two may not be known for awhile given the uncertain nature of prospects projections. However, when you buy a commodity that is in short supply that you need, you pay top dollar.
In hind sight, maybe DD gets Chapman for a bag of balls by waiting a bit, and perhaps he should have been more aggressive signing Hill and anticipated the weakness in the opening rotation and its minor league depth, and then some of those prospects need not have been dealt away. There really was no alternative to Price after letting Lester get away. At least Price did not cost a pick.
I am pretty sure DD has been given orders by the owners to win this year, even if the future must be sacrificed a bit. Three last place finishes in 4 years and only 1 post season appearance in 6 years is not the way to keep your customer base paying the highest ticket prices in baseball, nor is it good for NESN ratings. So some of this urgency is on Ben and Theos lack of urgency these past 6 years. If Theo had gone out and filled the holes in the rotation in 2011 at the deadline, 2011 may have had a much different ending that could have spared us Bobby V and 2012, and while 2013 may not have happened in quite the same way, perhaps we perhaps would not have the same urgency to win today, and some of these costly moves need not have been made. But thats water under the bridge, I think DD has given Farrell and Willis what they need to win, and they better get out of the gate winning or there is a good chance DD's next move is a change in on field management.
In hind sight, maybe DD gets Chapman for a bag of balls by waiting a bit, and perhaps he should have been more aggressive signing Hill and anticipated the weakness in the opening rotation and its minor league depth, and then some of those prospects need not have been dealt away. There really was no alternative to Price after letting Lester get away. At least Price did not cost a pick.
I am pretty sure DD has been given orders by the owners to win this year, even if the future must be sacrificed a bit. Three last place finishes in 4 years and only 1 post season appearance in 6 years is not the way to keep your customer base paying the highest ticket prices in baseball, nor is it good for NESN ratings. So some of this urgency is on Ben and Theos lack of urgency these past 6 years. If Theo had gone out and filled the holes in the rotation in 2011 at the deadline, 2011 may have had a much different ending that could have spared us Bobby V and 2012, and while 2013 may not have happened in quite the same way, perhaps we perhaps would not have the same urgency to win today, and some of these costly moves need not have been made. But thats water under the bridge, I think DD has given Farrell and Willis what they need to win, and they better get out of the gate winning or there is a good chance DD's next move is a change in on field management.
Hey folks, can we have a Dombrowski thread about Dombrowski and not gammoseditor? We're clearly being trolled.
I really like the speed with which DD has attacked the market. Our team is better now and more likely to win the rest of our July games, our rivals are under more pressure to make moves to keep up in a now tighter market with really only SP rentals left. Meanwhile, Pomeranz is exactly what you look for in a 2/3/4 pitcher, and he's a QO candidate down the line. Zeigler may end up our savior (I don't have any faith in Kimbrel, Koji or Taz providing value the rest of the year, but will be happily surprised if they do) and Hill perfectly fills a hole (how many games did we have Hernandez up for our last out?), both without costing significant pieces. Even the Kimbrel trade didn't involve losing anyone likely to set foot in Fenway for more than a cup of coffee during the window we have in the next three to five seasons.
I still want another reliever though.
Side note to Sampo Gida: I don't care if the Yanks send him over for free with a complimentary fruit basket, I don't want Chapman on this team. I don't want his domestic abuse tactfully ignored and swept under the rug, I don't want to finish every close game feeling shitty and conflicted about watching, I don't want to explain to my daughter why my favorite team is employing him. Fuck that guy.
I really like the speed with which DD has attacked the market. Our team is better now and more likely to win the rest of our July games, our rivals are under more pressure to make moves to keep up in a now tighter market with really only SP rentals left. Meanwhile, Pomeranz is exactly what you look for in a 2/3/4 pitcher, and he's a QO candidate down the line. Zeigler may end up our savior (I don't have any faith in Kimbrel, Koji or Taz providing value the rest of the year, but will be happily surprised if they do) and Hill perfectly fills a hole (how many games did we have Hernandez up for our last out?), both without costing significant pieces. Even the Kimbrel trade didn't involve losing anyone likely to set foot in Fenway for more than a cup of coffee during the window we have in the next three to five seasons.
I still want another reliever though.
Side note to Sampo Gida: I don't care if the Yanks send him over for free with a complimentary fruit basket, I don't want Chapman on this team. I don't want his domestic abuse tactfully ignored and swept under the rug, I don't want to finish every close game feeling shitty and conflicted about watching, I don't want to explain to my daughter why my favorite team is employing him. Fuck that guy.
This is not within a hundred miles of being true. You have to literally ignore everything that matters and only care about the nonsensical twaddle for this to be remotely reasonable...and even then it fails.
Fine. I'll go die in a fire without your express-written permission.
Just know I won't take any satisfaction in it.
Still crazy, after all these years.
Don't ever change, buddy.
I would be a very happy person if every regular season ended with a one game playoff for the Red Sox. I imagine every team's fans would feel similarly. Not you I guess, but everyone else perhaps.
He took over a team that was bland at the major league level and barren below and left a team that was a contender and had a little something coming up.
In the process, he hammered a stake into the heart of the notion that the Sox are racist, and when confronted with a wife beating scumbag, he dropped him.
He brought us Nomar and Pedro and the bulk of the 2004 team was his. He made the team exciting again, winning a playoff game and series for the first time since 1986. His teams set attendance records.
But he was a cold fish and the media didn't like him so he was bad at his job.
Dan Duquette did a good job on Montreal, a good job here, and he's doing a good job in Baltimore. He's not the best GM in the world but he's a good one.
Of course process matters more than results. This is baseball. Even the players who play the game have limited control over the outcome. Managers and GMs have even less control over the results.
Thought this was interesting. Sounds like there is some grumbling afoot around the league about the Ziegler deal: