Do the Bruins Make the Playoffs?
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Wasn't sure where to put this, but given the Claude had Spooner/Lucic/Pasta on the ice with a minute to go in a tie game, I thought it was worth sharing:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-make-the-playoffs-hockey-teams-play-not-to-win/
Probably not surprising, but in the "shootout era", the number of games late in the season that go to OT has skyrockted, as teams play for the single point.
Not Claude though, he's a gunslinger!
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-make-the-playoffs-hockey-teams-play-not-to-win/
Probably not surprising, but in the "shootout era", the number of games late in the season that go to OT has skyrockted, as teams play for the single point.
Not Claude though, he's a gunslinger!
Honestly, this is part of the reason why I think a rule change that makes regulation wins worth 3 points and OT wins worth 2 makes sense.behindthepen said:
At the end of all this, I think Detroit is going to be the odd team out. They are in a tailspin and last night is just a backbreaking loss for them, half their team is hurt, and their goalie situation is a trainwreck. I think the Bruins end up the 3 seed in the division and Ottawa grabs the wild card.
Did I hear this right? The Bruins are 24-12-7 with Krejci in the lineup, only 16-13-6 without him. Is it really that easy to explain this season?
He completely changes the complexion of the lineup. He really is that important.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
The 4 most important guys on the team are Chara, Krejci, Bergy and Tuukka. It's hard to recover from losing one of those guys.
I still think Ottawa is out...they lose the tiebreakers so they need to be ahead in points.
Let's just look at Ottawa vs Detroit...they each have 5 games left, Detroit has a 3 point lead and will win the tiebreaker in ROW. That means Ottawa needs to get 4 more points than Detroit within 5 games.
There are 10 possible points for each team... If Detroit gets just 4 points in these 5 games Ottawa can only lose once or they are out. Detroit has two games against Carolina left who are awful.
If Ottawa is catching anyone it will be the Bruins, and I don't think that is going to happen.
Let's just look at Ottawa vs Detroit...they each have 5 games left, Detroit has a 3 point lead and will win the tiebreaker in ROW. That means Ottawa needs to get 4 more points than Detroit within 5 games.
There are 10 possible points for each team... If Detroit gets just 4 points in these 5 games Ottawa can only lose once or they are out. Detroit has two games against Carolina left who are awful.
If Ottawa is catching anyone it will be the Bruins, and I don't think that is going to happen.
Losing him for half the season is a huge reason they are fighting for a playoff spot instead of just jockeying for position.
They actually had a better record without Z than with him right before he came back from his injury. That's attributable largely to a soft schedule, luck and Rask being excellent, though. Their PDO was 102.1 without him and 96.5 with at the time of his return.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2296727-what-getting-captain-zdeno-chara-back-from-injury-means-to-the-boston-bruins
They actually had a better record without Z than with him right before he came back from his injury. That's attributable largely to a soft schedule, luck and Rask being excellent, though. Their PDO was 102.1 without him and 96.5 with at the time of his return.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2296727-what-getting-captain-zdeno-chara-back-from-injury-means-to-the-boston-bruins
Losing Krejci just sends ripples throughout the whole lineup, there is no one one in the system that replaces Krejci's skill set. Not Carl, not Spooner (yet). Bergy can do all he can without him, but losing Krejci really let teams stiffle the Soderberg line and try to live and die vs the other lines which was working.
Having 2 centers is HUGE in this league it just lets everything else slot in properly. It is really that simple most of the time, unless your wingers are excellent.
Having 2 centers is HUGE in this league it just lets everything else slot in properly. It is really that simple most of the time, unless your wingers are excellent.
FWIW, Detroit is @ MIN on Saturday and then they host WSH on Sunday. Pretty tough back-to-back, but they do get CAR twice in their last 3 next week, sandwiched around a trip to MTL.
I also read somewhere that the Bruins shooting percentage is down rather substantially this season. Is this number looked upon like BABIP? If that trends back towards normal over the next few weeks that's a nice sign.
EDIT:
14/15: 8.5%
13/14: 9.9%
12/13: 8.2%
11/12: 9.8%
10/11: 9.1%
If we were at 9.9% this season, that's about 30 more goals.
EDIT:
14/15: 8.5%
13/14: 9.9%
12/13: 8.2%
11/12: 9.8%
10/11: 9.1%
If we were at 9.9% this season, that's about 30 more goals.
Thanks on mobile so hard to look up, given that a good chunk of those games were without Krejci I don't think it is as easy as saying Krejci is the difference. You could make a case that his injury was a blessing in disguise because without that spooner is probably still in providence.TheShynessClinic said:
They around normal. Their PDO (shooting % + save %) is at 100.3 in all situations. That's pretty much normal, PDO should trend towards 100 over time. They were 102.7 last year, which is high. It's rare for teams to have multiple consecutive seasons with a PDO over 100.DrewDawg said:
Edit: I guess PDO is kind of like a hockey version of BABIP. Hard to repeat and a PDO above 100 is unsustainable and usually indicates some luck. See the 13/14 Colorado Avalance and more notably the 13/14 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Race for Wild Card/3rd in Atlantic
3rd Place in Atlantic
Detroit
93 pts
37 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 at Minnesota, 4/5 vs Washington, 4/7 vs. Carolina, 4/9 at Montreal, 4/11 at Carolina
Boston
93 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Toronto, 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Wild Card
Pittsburgh
95 pts
38 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 at Columbus, Sunday 4/5 at Philly, 4/7 at Ottawa, 4/10 vs. NYI, 4/11 at Buffalo
Boston
93 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Toronto, 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Ottawa
90 pts
33 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Washington, 4/5 at Toronto, 4/7 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/9 at NYR, 4/11 at Philly
Florida
87 pts
28 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Tampa, 4/5 vs. Montreal, 4/9 vs. Boston, 4/11 vs. NJ
3rd Place in Atlantic
Detroit
93 pts
37 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 at Minnesota, 4/5 vs Washington, 4/7 vs. Carolina, 4/9 at Montreal, 4/11 at Carolina
Boston
93 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Toronto, 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Wild Card
Pittsburgh
95 pts
38 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 at Columbus, Sunday 4/5 at Philly, 4/7 at Ottawa, 4/10 vs. NYI, 4/11 at Buffalo
Boston
93 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Toronto, 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Ottawa
90 pts
33 ROW
77 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Washington, 4/5 at Toronto, 4/7 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/9 at NYR, 4/11 at Philly
Florida
87 pts
28 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/4 vs. Tampa, 4/5 vs. Montreal, 4/9 vs. Boston, 4/11 vs. NJ
Yup, you could. I just put the teams on there that were actually in the WCs or behind them.Ferm Sheller said:
Gotcha. I think they have a better shot at catching Washington than Pittsburgh. Although Washington has one more point than Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has a game in hand on the B's and Washington does not, Washington and Boston have a game remaining against each other and Washington arguably has a tougher schedule than does Pittsburgh.
I think the board has done a solid job outlining how valuable 46 is to making this team go. We talked about it much earlier in the season (or maybe last season) and touch on it from time to time, but the second, third, and even fourth order effects of when he's out of the lineup are enormous. Never mind you are one of the strongest teams in the league up the middle with 46, 37, 34, and now 51, but a healthy 46 creates favorable match ups and consistent playing time for the rest of the team. It also gives you the flexibility to move Soda to the wing and not lose those three centers of excellence.
Call me crazy, but the consensus at this point is getting to the playoffs will be a minor victory. I know it's not what everyone was hoping or expected at the start of the year, I'm not sure this is a team I would want to play knowing the Bruins might feel like they are playing within nothing to lose. They could be dangerous with a little luck and some health.
Call me crazy, but the consensus at this point is getting to the playoffs will be a minor victory. I know it's not what everyone was hoping or expected at the start of the year, I'm not sure this is a team I would want to play knowing the Bruins might feel like they are playing within nothing to lose. They could be dangerous with a little luck and some health.
If Connolly is as good a he showed last night and the team can stay healthy, then I am far more optimistic not just about making the playoffs, but potentially making a run with the lineup they have now, than I was a week ago.
If the rumors of Dougie maybe being back for the playoffs end up being true.... well, I certainly wouldn't want to be the team facing them.
That said, it would be really, really nice to see them put a full 60 minutes of good hockey together against Toronto tomorrow. Having to desperately come from behind in the third period is starting to get old.
If the rumors of Dougie maybe being back for the playoffs end up being true.... well, I certainly wouldn't want to be the team facing them.
That said, it would be really, really nice to see them put a full 60 minutes of good hockey together against Toronto tomorrow. Having to desperately come from behind in the third period is starting to get old.
Looking at two sources (Sportsclubstats and hockeyreference) they have only Philadelphia, Boston, and Ottawa as having being between 95% < Playoff Odds < 5%
The two sites have these numbers as of this afternoon (Saturday at 2PM)
DET - 91% / 92%
BOS - 82% / 82%
OTT - 30% / 29%
The obvious problem for Ottawa is they need two things to happen (them to win and others to lose) while Bos / Det just need one
The two sites have these numbers as of this afternoon (Saturday at 2PM)
DET - 91% / 92%
BOS - 82% / 82%
OTT - 30% / 29%
The obvious problem for Ottawa is they need two things to happen (them to win and others to lose) while Bos / Det just need one
Florida has been eliminated. That leaves 6 teams for the remaining 5 spots. 2 will end up as the #3 seeds in the divisional round while two more will get the wild cards. There are a few head-to-head matchups still remaining(today Detroit/Washington, Tuesday Islanders/Penguins, Friday Penguins/Senators) that will go a long ways in how things will shake out. From a Bruins perspective, today's Wings/Caps game is huge. Personally, I'll be rooting for Washington as I really want the Bruins to finish 3rd and hopefully pair up with Tampa.
3rd Place in Atlantic
Detroit
95 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 vs Washington, 4/7 vs. Carolina, 4/9 at Montreal, 4/11 at Carolina
Boston
95 pts
37 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Ottawa
92 pts
34 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 at Toronto, 4/7 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/9 at NYR, 4/11 at Philly
3rd Place in Metropolitan
NY Islanders
98 pts
39 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/7 at Philadelphia, 4/10 at Pittsburgh, 4/11 vs. Columbus
Washington
97 pts
38 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 at Detroit, 4/8 vs. Boston, 4/11 vs. NYR
Pittsburgh
95 pts
38 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: Sunday 4/5 at Philly, 4/7 at Ottawa, 4/10 vs. NYI, 4/11 at Buffalo
3rd Place in Atlantic
Detroit
95 pts
37 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 vs Washington, 4/7 vs. Carolina, 4/9 at Montreal, 4/11 at Carolina
Boston
95 pts
37 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/8 at Washington(NBCSN), 4/9 at Florida, 4/11 at Tampa Bay(NBCSN)
Ottawa
92 pts
34 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 at Toronto, 4/7 vs. Pittsburgh, 4/9 at NYR, 4/11 at Philly
3rd Place in Metropolitan
NY Islanders
98 pts
39 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/7 at Philadelphia, 4/10 at Pittsburgh, 4/11 vs. Columbus
Washington
97 pts
38 ROW
79 GP
Remaining Schedule: 4/5 at Detroit, 4/8 vs. Boston, 4/11 vs. NYR
Pittsburgh
95 pts
38 ROW
78 GP
Remaining Schedule: Sunday 4/5 at Philly, 4/7 at Ottawa, 4/10 vs. NYI, 4/11 at Buffalo
Looking at the top of the division. Tampa Bay has moved into a tie with Montréal and have clinched the ROW tiebreaker. The Canadiens have a game in hand.RedOctober3829 said:
wilked said:
There's still plenty of opportunity for them. The Bruins have a tough schedule, and Pitt is flailing and Ottawa plays them Tuesday. I wouldn't expect the Bruins to get more than 3 points in their last 3 and Ottawa has the tiebreak.
If the Bruins get 3 points, Ottawa would need 7 of their last 8 to pass them.Ed Hillel said:
Ottawa also doesn't have the tie break. Bruins have pretty much clinched that.
Detroit loses to Washington and there goes their game in hand. Bruins and Wings have identical records with 3 games left.
RedOctober3829 said:
DET and BOS are tied at 95 points and are tied with 37 non-SO games won. BOS has the third tiebreaker (greater # of points earned in games between the tied clubs).
Remaining schedules:
BOS - 4/8 at WAS, 4/9 at FLA, 4/11 at TB
DET - 4/7 vs. CAR, 4/9 at MON, 4/11 at CAR
BoSoxFink said:
PIT and BOS are tied at 95 points. PIT has one more non-SO win (38 vs. 37). BOS has the third tiebreaker (greater # of points earned in games between the tied clubs).
Remaining schedules:
BOS - 4/8 at WAS, 4/9 at FLA, 4/11 at TB
PIT - 4/7 at OTT, 4/10 vs. NYI, 4/11 at BUF
yes, it is possible was drops below 5 but those scenarios are more of the 'you flip heads twice in a row while I flip tails three times in a row'. This site has them at less than 10% chances to drop below 5th seed
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
My guess is they don't come at the Bruins 100% wed
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
My guess is they don't come at the Bruins 100% wed
this is dumb, if a team hasn't clinched yet then you will see their best no matter what. This is like saying if a team is up 3-0 in a series they should start a different goalie because it is basically over. It's a very stupid argument.wilked said:
You will get Washington's best on Wednesday, at least they will/should try to give their best.
I personally think it is very different from the playoff series analogy... they have already clinched, their 'worst case' scenario (and that is only a 7-8% chance) is dropping a spot or two, not losing a playoff series. If I were the coach I would lean toward taking it easy against the Bruins, give a little extra rest to a guy who needs it, and maybe re-evaluate for the final game against the Rangers as needed. But I will agree to disagree on this one...
Lose Remerswaal said:
As much as I hate to say it, I'm rooting for a Pittsburgh win in regulation. That would give the Bs a chance to clinch a playoff spot Wednesday night against Washington. Can't take making the playoffs for granted. Just get it and then worry about who else may or may not make it.
Plus, there's still a very good chance that the Pens make the playoffs even if they lose in regulation tomorrow night as they hold the tiebreaker over Ottawa and face Buffalo on Saturday.
yea as much as I hate Pitt, I am rooting for them to win in regulation tomorrow. That would mean the Bruins would only need to win one of their final 3 and they're in.Lose Remerswaal said:
And to do that, they may have to go without Z. He's day-to-day, and Joe Morrow is back on an emergency basis:BoSoxFink said:
https://twitter.com/HackswithHaggs/status/585127979400953857
https://twitter.com/HackswithHaggs/status/585127979400953857
link to tweet
It'll be interesting to see how both teams (Bos and TB) play the game on Saturday if the Bruins have clinched the 3rd seed by then.
I agree, I think that's a given.
They should just give the young guys tons of ice time and give the old guys the game off.
They should just give the young guys tons of ice time and give the old guys the game off.
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