#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
I was getting at something else.DrewDawg said:
Someone with a trained ear can listen to the person and in effect cross examine him, take apart the story, question inconsistencies, etc. That helps to prepare the person (Brady) to explain seeming contradictions instead of leaving it for others to tear into after the fact.
But I don't dispute your underlying concern. TB has a lot of explaining to do that he should have handled up front.
At this point, none of it really matters other than the punishment. It's a bullshit controversy, but no one outside of Patriots fans cares about that. The reputational damage is done, and, absent Roger Goodell and Jim Irsay going on TV and confessing that they conspired to frame Tom Brady, that ain't changing. It sucks and it stinks.
On to Pittsburgh.
On to Pittsburgh.
Gronk chimes in
https://twitter.com/uninterrupted/status/596099768318832640
https://twitter.com/uninterrupted/status/596099768318832640
link to tweet
https://twitter.com/uninterrupted/status/596099768318832640
https://twitter.com/uninterrupted/status/596099768318832640
link to tweet
I said above that he'd get the max fine allowed, but the more I think about I'm convinced it will be a 1-2 game suspension. It may be overturned eventually, but that will be the initial punishment.
I might be naive but I find it difficult to believe Brady would lie to Kraft, BB and his teammates.
I don't believe that Brady asked for the balls to be xxx psi or whatever. I do believe that Brady was pissed to play a game with balls that were too hard and asked his guys to make sure they are softer. But seeing as he knew the rules, I don't have any reason to believe that Brady specifically asked for a non-legal number. But that's the assumption many are making.
This obviously requires people to understand nuance. Which people have proven time and again that they cannot handle.
I am not saying that the ball boys did not deflate the balls (though I find the assumptions in the science to be dubious and untrustworthy) but to get to the conclusions that Brady actively tried to circumvent rules you need to do some mental gymnastics.
This obviously requires people to understand nuance. Which people have proven time and again that they cannot handle.
I am not saying that the ball boys did not deflate the balls (though I find the assumptions in the science to be dubious and untrustworthy) but to get to the conclusions that Brady actively tried to circumvent rules you need to do some mental gymnastics.
Considering he apparently gave the refs a copy of the rule as part of asking for them to be 12.5, I mean, it defies any common sense that he was intent on breaking the rule.( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
This whole mess still reads to me like Brady deciding he likes the balls softer, discovered the legal limits, and told the equipment guys to get it to the softest legal PSI they could. The idiots on the equipment staff probably, per the report, took those instructions too far. Perhaps they feared Brady being pissed at them if they didn't take the rule breaking steps, but that's not something you can really hang on Brady. There's nothing that indicated he knew, much less sanctioned, any rule breaking.
If this were any other situation, the equipment guys would be the fall guys and that would be the end of it.
drleather2001 said:
This is my stance at the moment. He wanted to print out the rule book and hand it to the refs with the balls. It's quite the opposite of trying to circumvent the rules.
That's exactly what somebody who was "more probably than not" breaking the rules would want you to believeNortheasternPJ said:
Not that I have heard. An interesting and important question.
Does the NFL want one big story or two big ones? Since the story isn't a good one, I'd say one, which would suggest a quick ruling on punishment. By Friday at the latest.
But they may let this settle a bit.
Does the NFL want one big story or two big ones? Since the story isn't a good one, I'd say one, which would suggest a quick ruling on punishment. By Friday at the latest.
But they may let this settle a bit.
geoduck no quahog said:
That's nonsense. If a buddy of mine at work was in trouble, damn straight I'd be checking in on him and seeing if he's ok.
Frankly I'm astounded that anyone could think differently. Why are people latching onto this as a sign that Brady was involved?
Sorry but certain of you acting as if it's insane to question whether there is at least some bias in this report when it's being paid for by a client with a pretty clear desire to find some fault make me laugh. To be clear I'm not saying they approached it openly that way, or set out looking for ways to compromise the investigation, but everyone knows that the questions you ask or tact you take and even the way you choose to write the report even can impact how people are going to interpret it. I'm a partner in a niche media company and work closely with our law firm on a wide range of stuff cause we have large clients like Disney and Amex and P&G that we do custom special projects for that require fairly complicated agreements. Long story short if I'm paying large sums to a firm regardless of publicly or for that matter privately the NFL saying they just want the truth, the firm is not stupid. Consciously or at the very least subconsciously the report is going to be biased to some degree in favor of those paying the bill. To believe otherwise is at best naive and at worst delusional.Otis Foster said:
I posted this like 10 pages ago but if Brady was so concerned about cheating and having air leaked wouldn't he be in contact BEFORE the game? The report says he didn't have any text / phone contact for the last 6 months - that is last July. The "he texted cuz he's guilty" argument makes so little sense.
Someone help me out here. I've read most of the report, but there's one question that I haven't found an answer to.
What evidence is there that Brady lied about anything?
All I see are some text messages from Jastremski implying that Brady knew about Jim. But why are Jastremski's texts (even taking them at face value)) any more credible that Brady's own statements? This guy apparently lied to his own family about the 50,000 yard ball, It's not a stretch to think he may have been lying to Jim.
What evidence is there that Brady lied about anything?
All I see are some text messages from Jastremski implying that Brady knew about Jim. But why are Jastremski's texts (even taking them at face value)) any more credible that Brady's own statements? This guy apparently lied to his own family about the 50,000 yard ball, It's not a stretch to think he may have been lying to Jim.
Brady is being lumped in with Lance Armstrong and Barry Bonds on NPR, CNN, and other mainstream outlets. This is not a good place for him to be come HoF time. Hopefully, the narrative shifts between now and then, but I don't know if that can happen.
I know I shouldn't be surprised at the level of absurdity about all this but it's still pretty stunning that Brady has fallen this much in just a few months given how little, if anything, he actually did wrong.
I know I shouldn't be surprised at the level of absurdity about all this but it's still pretty stunning that Brady has fallen this much in just a few months given how little, if anything, he actually did wrong.
Someone asked "why are Jastremki's texts any more credible than Brady's own statements?"
Here is my answer:
Well, Jastremski didn't know when he made those texts that there would be accustations and investigations. It captured a moment in time when he had no reason to lie. Brady has a compelling reason to lie, if he was in fact complicit.
Here is my answer:
Well, Jastremski didn't know when he made those texts that there would be accustations and investigations. It captured a moment in time when he had no reason to lie. Brady has a compelling reason to lie, if he was in fact complicit.
Hey geewiz guys, check out how much the pressure returns in 13 minutes - the amount of time the Colts footballs sat in the heated locker room before someone started gauging them.
I also don't think we've heard the final word from Kraft on all this. I know his statement today reflected his desire to move on and put this behind the franchise and I'm sure he feels the best way to do that is not to speak of it again and just accept the Sheriff's ruling. However, I cannot believe that given the level of hysteria that's erupted over Brady's role in all this, that he'll not come out and defend Brady publicly.
Brady's legacy will be fine once the hottakemachine moves onto the next subject. I'm sure some cranky old fuck working for a dying newspaper will not vote for Brady but he's going in on the first ballot. Everyone just take a deep breath.
My take, FWIW.
(I) There was a ton of smoke suggesting the balls were deflated by someone in the Patriots' organization. Later it was found that the person most likely to have done the supposed deflating had previously referred to himself as "the deflator" in text messages.
All the back-and-forth over biases and ideal gas laws is noise. There is no smoking gun, but based on the above I can't see how anyone doesn't think McNally let air out of the balls.
(II) There is no direct and little circumstantial evidence suggesting Tom Brady either prompted or knew about the deflation. It is reasonable to suspect that he did, but the actual evidence is thin.
(III) Knowing what we do, there are limitless possible ways this all could have happened. IMO, there are three that are most probable, which I list in decreasing order of likelihood (IMO, of course).
Common to all: Tom Brady has stated that he likes his football on the soft side. He is both intense and thorough. He almost certainly does give thought and attention to the feel of his game balls. It is probably one of hundreds of things he is concerned with on game day.
(IIIa) First scenario. Tom's intensity and attention to detail had in the past resulted in him being hard on the equipment people when he wasn't 100% comfortable with the feel of their game balls (in consistent fashion with that he is reportedly hard on his teammates when they do things not up to standard). Unlike most of his teammates who are also professional athletes, McNally takes it hard and feels he is being bullied. He talks tough in texts to Jastremski ("F*ck Tom"!) but really is intimidated and doesn't want to get yelled at again. Accordingly, he lets a little air out of the balls so Tom will be mollified.
(IIIb) Second scenario. While Tom did not actually instruct McNally, he has an understood "wink-wink"-thing with him that if he leaks a little air out of the balls before games, he wouldn't be upset. While it is something he thinks about and is involved in, it accounts for < 0.1% of his thoughts on game day. He doesn't think it's a big deal - because it isn't and he knows that it is common practice in the NFL and no one cares. When it suddenly becomes a scandal, he denies knowledge based partly on his very-little direct involvement combined with what he thinks is plausible deniability.
(IIIc) Tom has told McNally to tamper with the balls. He knows it's against the rules, but also knows that it's not really a big deal, and, as it is common practice, feels that him not doing so actually puts him at a competitive disadvantage.
In scenario IIIa, Brady is a victim. In scenario IIIb, he is still a victim, but also a slight perpetrator. In IIIc, he is both a victim and a perpetrator. The reason he is a victim even in IIIb-c is that the league and press are suddenly "appalled that gambling is going on in here!"
Perhaps a good analogy (for cases IIIb-c) is that Tom is like a guy driving a McLaren 60 mph in a 55 mph zone, gets pulled over, and dramatically insists that he wasn't doing a bit over 55 mph. People would think that guy a total douche. If it were, say, Mark Sanchez in the same situation, it's be like a guy driving a Hyundai getting pulled for dong 60 mph in a 55 zone and insisting he was driving 55 mph. Most people would think "poor dude, he didn't do anything really, why are they picking on him?"
That is all.
(I) There was a ton of smoke suggesting the balls were deflated by someone in the Patriots' organization. Later it was found that the person most likely to have done the supposed deflating had previously referred to himself as "the deflator" in text messages.
All the back-and-forth over biases and ideal gas laws is noise. There is no smoking gun, but based on the above I can't see how anyone doesn't think McNally let air out of the balls.
(II) There is no direct and little circumstantial evidence suggesting Tom Brady either prompted or knew about the deflation. It is reasonable to suspect that he did, but the actual evidence is thin.
(III) Knowing what we do, there are limitless possible ways this all could have happened. IMO, there are three that are most probable, which I list in decreasing order of likelihood (IMO, of course).
Common to all: Tom Brady has stated that he likes his football on the soft side. He is both intense and thorough. He almost certainly does give thought and attention to the feel of his game balls. It is probably one of hundreds of things he is concerned with on game day.
(IIIa) First scenario. Tom's intensity and attention to detail had in the past resulted in him being hard on the equipment people when he wasn't 100% comfortable with the feel of their game balls (in consistent fashion with that he is reportedly hard on his teammates when they do things not up to standard). Unlike most of his teammates who are also professional athletes, McNally takes it hard and feels he is being bullied. He talks tough in texts to Jastremski ("F*ck Tom"!) but really is intimidated and doesn't want to get yelled at again. Accordingly, he lets a little air out of the balls so Tom will be mollified.
(IIIb) Second scenario. While Tom did not actually instruct McNally, he has an understood "wink-wink"-thing with him that if he leaks a little air out of the balls before games, he wouldn't be upset. While it is something he thinks about and is involved in, it accounts for < 0.1% of his thoughts on game day. He doesn't think it's a big deal - because it isn't and he knows that it is common practice in the NFL and no one cares. When it suddenly becomes a scandal, he denies knowledge based partly on his very-little direct involvement combined with what he thinks is plausible deniability.
(IIIc) Tom has told McNally to tamper with the balls. He knows it's against the rules, but also knows that it's not really a big deal, and, as it is common practice, feels that him not doing so actually puts him at a competitive disadvantage.
In scenario IIIa, Brady is a victim. In scenario IIIb, he is still a victim, but also a slight perpetrator. In IIIc, he is both a victim and a perpetrator. The reason he is a victim even in IIIb-c is that the league and press are suddenly "appalled that gambling is going on in here!"
Perhaps a good analogy (for cases IIIb-c) is that Tom is like a guy driving a McLaren 60 mph in a 55 mph zone, gets pulled over, and dramatically insists that he wasn't doing a bit over 55 mph. People would think that guy a total douche. If it were, say, Mark Sanchez in the same situation, it's be like a guy driving a Hyundai getting pulled for dong 60 mph in a 55 zone and insisting he was driving 55 mph. Most people would think "poor dude, he didn't do anything really, why are they picking on him?"
That is all.
TB isn't ever getting the "poor dude" treatment. That's going to be reserved for La'el Collins, if anyone.
This gets processed by your average person at the 38,000 foot level. They will hear about the text messages, understand that one guy was named The Deflator, smile and go about their day.
That's tough for him. It's his good fortune that the NFLPA has an agenda different than the Pats. If he gets suspended for one quarter of one game, the union will rally to him.
Kraft and the Pats -- Absent a penalty that almost certainly won't come, they pack it in. That's good business and reflects good lawyering.
Also good business and good lawyering -- don't throw the Deflator and his friend under the bus.
This gets processed by your average person at the 38,000 foot level. They will hear about the text messages, understand that one guy was named The Deflator, smile and go about their day.
That's tough for him. It's his good fortune that the NFLPA has an agenda different than the Pats. If he gets suspended for one quarter of one game, the union will rally to him.
Kraft and the Pats -- Absent a penalty that almost certainly won't come, they pack it in. That's good business and reflects good lawyering.
Also good business and good lawyering -- don't throw the Deflator and his friend under the bus.
Stitch01 said:
Tonight on CSN Borges said Brady will make the Hall of Fame, but this will keep him from making it on the first ballot.
From Mike Reiss: "While Brady denied any knowledge of or involvement in any efforts to deflate game balls after the pregame inspection by the game officials, the feeling here is that this report puts him at risk of suspension and, at the least, a fine."
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/print?id=4781198
My prediction:
$600,000 team fine for deflated balls ($25k x 12 balls x 2 cuz spygate), plus loss of mid-round draft pick for failure to fully cooperate with league investigation. Jastremski & McNally terminated, banned indefinitely from NFL employment and all league-sanctioned events/activities (see Steve Scarnecchia). Tom Brady suspended 2 games without pay; appealed down to one game suspension, but fine of 2 game checks upheld.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/print?id=4781198
My prediction:
$600,000 team fine for deflated balls ($25k x 12 balls x 2 cuz spygate), plus loss of mid-round draft pick for failure to fully cooperate with league investigation. Jastremski & McNally terminated, banned indefinitely from NFL employment and all league-sanctioned events/activities (see Steve Scarnecchia). Tom Brady suspended 2 games without pay; appealed down to one game suspension, but fine of 2 game checks upheld.
Get Ready for More of the Same
Same characters as in the 2 weeks before the Super Bowl saying different versions of the same shit
Tom Brady not making the HOF on the first ballot
As stupid as it gets
Until Shannon Sharpe opens his trap
Or Woody Paige
Or name any of them
Same characters as in the 2 weeks before the Super Bowl saying different versions of the same shit
Tom Brady not making the HOF on the first ballot
As stupid as it gets
Until Shannon Sharpe opens his trap
Or Woody Paige
Or name any of them
It is a least a little odd that some people around here are so confident that the penalty will be minor given the results of the Wells Report. This is the NFL where over 100 days of foolishness was devoted to investigating a meaningless drop in PSI in a blowout game where the blowout only got worse after the balls were corrected.
The sky is the limit and rationality has long since left the building.
The sky is the limit and rationality has long since left the building.
I think you are right to this degree -- there is at least a 10% chance this completely jumps the rails at the punishment phase.wiffleballhero said:
If Tagliabue were still Commissioner, that estimate would be as close to zero as it could get.
Random thought, I don't think any of this should/would happen, but I'm about go full Simmons with this theory:
What if Brady is suspended for the first few games, loses the appeal, Jimmy starts, lights it up, the Patriots start hot and keep rolling with JG for a deep playoff run... And then Brady is released in the offseason.
What if Brady is suspended for the first few games, loses the appeal, Jimmy starts, lights it up, the Patriots start hot and keep rolling with JG for a deep playoff run... And then Brady is released in the offseason.
I'm a Broncos fan, but I aim to view this thing objectively so don't crucify me.
One of the things that looks negative to me is the point that they requested a follow-up interview with McNally but the Patriots attorneys would not allow it.
That's not a good look after saying the team would fully cooperate with the investigation.
One of the things that looks negative to me is the point that they requested a follow-up interview with McNally but the Patriots attorneys would not allow it.
That's not a good look after saying the team would fully cooperate with the investigation.
Even if it's a fifth interview with an employee who has a full time job elsewhere? Seems totally reasonable to me.86spike said:
We will cooperate, just please for the fairness of our people, batch the questions up into less than 5 bunches. I know it's such a burden since you've only had 100 days to conduct the investifation.
Edit: To me, it's only further evidence of Kraft's integrity - putting the welfare of his people before all else.
Kraft says they interviewed him four times, but on the fifth request the Patriots said enough is enough because it was getting ridiculous for a guy with a full-time job (not for the Patriots).86spike said:
