What uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?I still don't get what people are hoping for in a Pomeranz, Buchholz, etc. trade.
The team is constructed to win now.
With the uncertainty in the rotation, the players pencilled in as the sixth or seventh starters might pitch more than 100 innings this season.
It's not like there isn't a *recent* precedence for this.
I don't. I suppose Theo never trades Saturn Balls to the Reds if he doesn't have Beckett and maybe he goes and gets a premium arm, but otherwise I'm not sure the resulting pitching staff with Arroyo is strong enough to win the 2007 championship and get to game 7 of the 2008 ALCS, even with Hanley's additional offensive production.How many of us regret the Sox giving up Hanley to get Beckett?
The last team with three pitchers to throw 220 IP was the 2011Angels. The rotation — or really, the top three: Haren, Santana and Weaver — was the only thing good about the team, and they still won 86. Santana threw 228 2/3 IP of 3.38 ERA and was under .500. They had three starting position players with OBPs under .300.What uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?
Those players are projected to throw 615 innings next year. That leaves, optimistically, ~360 starters' innings to be covered by the remaining spots in the rotation.That's 60% of the rotation that feels pretty damn solid.
two potential starters in the pen but fillWhat uncertainty in the rotation? Is it uncertainty about the $200M man who threw 220+ innings last year, the newly acquired ace who also threw 220+ innings last year, or the Cy Young award winner who threw 220+ innings last year?
That's 60% of the rotation that feels pretty damn solid. Now they have four more guys for essentially three spots (2 in the rotation, 1 swing man). The only reason to hold on to everyone is if you're anticipating someone getting hurt.
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The problem is there are nowhere close to enough innings in the bullpen to keep two long relievers stretched out enough that they can jump to the rotation if needed. I don't think anyone will deny that Buchholz or Wright or Pomeranz are a better pitcher than Hembree or whoever else might be in the mop-up role. But how effective can those guys be as starters if while they're not in the rotation, they're hardly pitching at all?I haven't seen anyone drawing up a trade that makes sense, nor one that comes close to the value of having decent starters instead of replacement-level junk at the back end of the rotation..
Thornburg's your huckleberry. .130 BA with 4XBH against all year.two potential starters in the pen but fill
One thing I would like this team to have is a better lefthanded reliever than Robby Ross, moving him to the second-lefty role and getting rid of Abad with Scott in AAA. Either Pomeranz, who's done that job before, or Edro, who has the tools to be absolutely dominant in that role, could move to the "relief ace" role, with Wright in long relief. That would leave 5 starters, with two potential starters in the pen waiting for the opportunity from injury or ineffectiveness.
Also, the best thing Dombrowski's done for the pen is to acquire three starters who, health allowing, can be expected to surpass 200 IP. Since Sale became a full-timer in 2012, he's averaged 6.8 IP per start and 203 IP per year.Thornburg's your huckleberry. .130 BA with 4XBH against all year.
Honestly once Smith is back, you're talking about him, Kelly, Thornburg and Kimbrel pitching the bulk of the late innings, none of whom are likely getting lifted mid inning.
Ross' highest leverage outings are going to be facing lefties in the 6th or 7th or when the other guys are spent. Not really a pen that needs a specialist.
Because you can't survive with a 5 man bullpen. If you are splitting starts equally among the 4 you are chewing up to slots in the pen to do it. You'd burn out your pen before the all star break. Even if assume that one of the three will always be on the DL a 6 man pen still isn't enough to keep the rest fresh. Hell, a 7 man pen is often not enough and teams end up having to burn options and abuse the shuttle to get through a week.Those players are projected to throw 615 innings next year. That leaves, optimistically, ~360 starters' innings to be covered by the remaining spots in the rotation.
Even the most optimistic projections don't peg back-end starters for 180-inning years, and for good reason. Just this year, the fourth and fifth most frequent starters for the Red Sox covered 116 and 107 innings, respectively. I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect that to change very much. A straight four-way split between the back four starters on the roster for the remaining innings would be 90 apiece. We know that injury and/or performance will reduce their number naturally. So why force it?
You're god damn right he is, this shit is built for a big time run.Dave Dombrowski is a god damn assassin.
I think there is a significant difference between going into the season with 7 starters and going into Spring Training with 7 starters. Between the day that pitchers and catchers report and Opening Day, either of the following things could happen that make this whole discussion moot:If we had 6 outfielders without options, or surplus at any other position, I'd be suggesting trading them as well. Keeping as much pitching talent as possible is a good idea, especially when factoring in injury rates. We all agree on that, I'm sure. But I think the do not trade a starter camp are just not factoring in how hard it would be to keep all those starters on the roster without negatively impacting them. Either Pomeranz or Edro would have their development set back by being in the pen or the minors, or in the best case Buchholz and Wright aren't stretched out and ready to be used as starters when you need them. And you are possibly ignoring better bullpen options, or losing bullpen arms because you didn't have enough roster spots to keep them all. If someone is advocating waiting until spring training to make the trade just in case there is a spring injury, then I can understand that viewpoint. But planning to go into the season with seven guys who are starters on your MLB roster is just a bad plan.
If they keep Pomeranz, and it seems they will, why wouldn't you pencil him in for the 170+ IP that he logged this season?Even the most optimistic projections don't peg back-end starters for 180-inning years, and for good reason. Just this year, the fourth and fifth most frequent starters for the Red Sox covered 116 and 107 innings, respectively. I think it would be pretty optimistic to expect that to change very much..
I can definitely understand an argument for waiting until training camp, although if a team made a great offer for Buchholz right now, you'd kind of have to think about it, right? Especially if what you want back is a piece you want to have while constructing the rest of your roster. But I think they are more likely to add prospects or depth guys from trading a pitcher, so that would make timing matter less.I think there is a significant difference between going into the season with 7 starters and going into Spring Training with 7 starters. Between the day that pitchers and catchers report and Opening Day, either of the following things could happen that make this whole discussion moot:
The latter is so likely, that there would be a good chance that the Sox would actually have a bidding war on their hands for teams to try to pry a Pomeranz or Wright or Buchholz out of the Sox' hands.
- An injury (or two) to one (or two) of the 7 thereby necessitating the need for the 6th (or 7th) starter to become part of the regular rotation.
- An injury or general ineffectiveness of the starting rotations of any one of the 29 teams (or more realistically, about 25 other teams, as there are some teams who the Sox simply wouldn't trade with).
And short of another pinch running stint, I'm not sure why you wouldn't peg Wright for at least the 150+ he put in last year.If they keep Pomeranz, and it seems they will, why wouldn't you pencil him in for the 170+ IP that he logged this season?
Oh if anyone makes a blow you away offer today, you probably take it.I can definitely understand an argument for waiting until training camp, although if a team made a great offer for Buchholz right now, you'd kind of have to think about it, right? Especially if what you want back is a piece you want to have while constructing the rest of your roster. But I think they are more likely to add prospects or depth guys from trading a pitcher, so that would make timing matter less.
If they keep Pomeranz, and it seems they will, why wouldn't you pencil him in for the 170+ IP that he logged this season?
Because their effectiveness tailed off later in the season?And short of another pinch running stint, I'm not sure why you wouldn't peg Wright for at least the 150+ he put in last year.
Which is probably fair, but I'm failing to remember the last time we had three legit 200-220 innings horses that are top shelf. It's certainly valid to have concerns over needing backups, but it's not realistic to keep this set of seven on the 25 man roster. Move at least one and get someone better than Owens or Johnson that has options and can be moved up and down. Or get prospects and make a side deal.Because their effectiveness tailed off later in the season?
I don't know, you can't project how unplanned events will happen. But I'm not going to bet against them happening.
It seems like every preseason we have the same conversation about how the Sox have too many starters and it never seems to be true by the season's end.
Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.And short of another pinch running stint, I'm not sure why you wouldn't peg Wright for at least the 150+ he put in last year.
Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.
It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.
I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me...
I agree wholeheartedly with all that. But disagree that the previous post I responded to that worried about getting innings of the back end slots and that being justification for keeping all seven.Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.
It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.
I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.
That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
Agreed. I think you only move a starter between now and camp if you get an offer you can't refuse. They should hedge against injury until it is not practicable to do so.Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.
There is zero hurry. I think the right way to approach this is to let everyone know Buch is available then wait. If a great offer floats by, jump on it, but otherwise wait until the last week of spring training. Someone is going to turn up with a starter hurt and it might be us.Agree, but what's the hurry? Unless a team hard up for a starting pitcher is willing to overpay for Buch, it makes sense to hold onto him at least until opening day because injuries happen.
I am also in full agreement with this. I think Pomeranz is better than Wright and more reliable than Buchholz and that makes him the odds on choice.I agree wholeheartedly with all that. But disagree that the previous post I responded to that worried about getting innings of the back end slots and that being justification for keeping all seven.
If Wright is on the team, there's no reason to think he can't be relied on for a significant workload if called upon. But yes, he's the likely swing man. And I'd go as far to say Pomeranz is a rotation lock, but I won't go there right now.
Because the manager seems to?Why do people hate Ross so much?
And what do you base this on?Because the manager seems to?
You're confusing dislike with incompetence by Farrell with bullpen usage.Because the manager seems to?
I will not be able to give you figures. I have a strong memory of many games when many Soshers were wondering why Ross was not used or not used earlier. He was described by rembrat and others as only good for "garbage" innings, but more often than not when he was called on he did a good job. Perhaps someone else can provide examples.And what do you base this on?
Can I ask why you consider Rodriguez a lock over Pomeranz? Honestly just curious, would like to hear the logic since it seems to be generally accepted.Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.
It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.
I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.
That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
2004, I think.Which is probably fair, but I'm failing to remember the last time we had three legit 200-220 innings horses that are top shelf. It's certainly valid to have concerns over needing backups, but it's not realistic to keep this set of seven on the 25 man roster. Move at least one and get someone better than Owens or Johnson that has options and can be moved up and down. Or get prospects and make a side deal.
I feel like there's a positive and negative outcome for every scenario for whoever the Sox keep. 1 will be traded, 1 will start, and 1 will go to the pen. All 3 are kind of even at this point with the only caveat of Eduardo Rodriguez potentially starting the year in Pawtucket which is probably the scenario that occurs if he struggles in ST and no trade happens. Wright profiles best as a starter. He's an innings eater and there is something to be said for saving this pen every 5th day.Because it's hard to deliver 150+ innings out of the bullpen.
It seems obvious to me that--health allowing--there are four locks for the rotation: Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez. That means one of Pomeranz, Wright, and Buchholz fills the last spot and the others are either in the bullpen or traded. This front office has indicated rather strongly that they care more about putting the best player in the most prominent position and less about stockpiling resources than the previous administration. I think that means the best pitcher gets the starting slot and I think that's Pomeranz.
I also think Buchholz is pretty clearly the most optimal trade bait. He costs the most while being relatively cheap and he has what is probably the most upside and the worst downside. That screams trade bait to me.
That means Wright goes the bullpen as a swing man. I think that offers some tremendous advantages. Adjusting to facing the knuckler for one at bat sandwiched between two traditional pitchers has to be a pair of tough adjustments.
Don't forget Arroyo was a starter in the minors during those previous two years (150 and 143 IP), so it wasn't as if the 178 in 2004 was the gigantic leap you imply by quoting just his MLB numbers.2004, I think.
By this time in that pre-season, they had just acquired Schilling, so they had a rotation lined up of:
And in 2004, all 4 pitched over 180 innings. And somehow, old Saturn Balls himself, Bronson Arroyo, added another 178 IP (after throwing only 17 and 27 the previous two years!).
- Pedro, coming off a 2003 season with only 186 IP, but an ERA+ of 231.
- Schill, coming off a 2003 season with only 168 IP, but an ERA+ of 156 and every expectation of getting back to 220 IP.
- Tim Wakefield, 201 IP, 114 ERA+
- Derek Lowe, 202 IP, 105 ERA+
Ross pitched better last season the higher the leverage:I will not be able to give you figures. I have a strong memory of many games when many Soshers were wondering why Ross was not used or not used earlier. He was described by rembrat and others as only good for "garbage" innings, but more often than not when he was called on he did a good job. Perhaps someone else can provide examples.
Really? His concern is that Sale isn't a great athlete? We could blow out all the bandwidth on all the servers posting pictures of non-athletic, but great pitchers. And do great athletes have a magical ability to heal more than bad athletes?From Fangraphs writer who used to be an executive for the Mariners, big analytics guy:
Some bonus thoughts on the Chris Sale deal. I consider Sale to be, believe it or not, underrated. He should have at least two Cy Young Awards on his mantle already. In fact, I would have given him a first-place vote this season. He does everything you could ever want a pitcher to do: miss bats, minimize free passes, and manage contact at a well above-average level. The only nit I can pick is that, for a great pitcher, he’s an ordinary athlete, a la Ben Sheets in his day. I’m not really sure how Sale would bounce back from a major injury at this stage of his career.
As for the other side of the deal, the White Sox obtained tremendous upside, especially in the persons of Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Many consider Moncada the game’s foremost prospect. Upside-wise, that might in fact be true. There is real risk here, however. It was only 20 at-bats in his brief 2016 MLB debut, but 12 strikeouts? That’s an eye-catcher. It took him a little while to start cooking in his 2015 A-ball debut, but he’s been a freight train since. As for Kopech, it’s all about velocity and upside. What exactly is he, though? He’s pitched all of 134.2 innings as a pro, and has a portfolio dotted with missed time for all of the wrong reasons — i.e. injury and suspension. You can’t teach a repeatable 100-plus mph fastball, however.
One has to give the White Sox credit for swinging for the fences, but I prefer the Red Sox end of the deal. It isn’t every day that a superstar pitcher at the absolute top of his game — and at a very reasonable salary — becomes available. If you can add him without putting a huge long-term hole in your organizational depth, you do it. Not too many clubs could afford to move such a package, but the Red Sox could.
Good thing our pitchers don't have to pinch run. Oh wait....Really? His concern is that Sale isn't a great athlete? We could blow out all the bandwidth on all the servers posting pictures of non-athletic, but great pitchers. And do great athletes have a magical ability to heal more than bad athletes?
Good thing our pitchers don't have to pinch run. Oh wait....
I might not be the best one to ask since I think there's only a tiny sliver of difference between them. Basically, Pomeranz already has bullpen experience and Rodriguez is cost controlled longer.Can I ask why you consider Rodriguez a lock over Pomeranz? Honestly just curious, would like to hear the logic since it seems to be generally accepted.
That's kind of how life works.I feel like there's a positive and negative outcome for every scenario for whoever the Sox keep.
There are two things to be said about saving this bullpen every fifth day. One, they don't look to need it any more than most other bullpens, and oh yeah, Sale, Price, and Porcello are the guys who you're supposed to rely on to go deep into games.Wright profiles best as a starter. He's an innings eater and there is something to be said for saving this pen every 5th day.
This is madness.Over the course of the season the need for a guy like Wright to pitch 3 + innings out of the pen will hopefully be less and less. So I would take Wright and slot him at the 4. Throwing right handed and having success in the AL East is a deciding factor combined with durability. So that leaves us with Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Pomeranz. One of Buchholz or Pomeranz needs to be dealt if you think Eduardo makes the rotation. A few things come to mind here. One is the luxury tax. The Sox have been rumored to want to stay under and moving Buchholz would help greatly. There also is zero chance of resigning him next year. The question now becomes do you take what you can get for Buchholz or move Pomeranz since he has more value? Pomeranz could still return a nice package of prospects while Clay would give a semi minimal return. I don't think you could get someone like Edwin Diaz for Pomeranz but some B/B minus guys. Clay however has shown when he's healthy and right he's a #2. So I'd buck logic and keep Clay thus moving Pomeranz for prospects. I would also look at making Eduardo the long man to not tax his arm with an eye of moving him in the rotation next season. Provided of course he does well in spring training.
To sum it up I would put Wright and Buchholz in the rotation, trade Pomeranz and move EdRo to the pen as the long guy to save his arm long term.
How is it clear that Rodriguez has an edge over anyone? This narrative has been driven into the ground without a shred of evidence and while I agree he's the future he also has an option on his deal. He's not a lock to start the season in Boston due to last year. Pomeranz has experience an a long man and quite frankly failed to out perform Buchholz after he was acquired. EdRo had an awful season and will now need to prove himself again. Meanwhile Wright did nothing to cost himself a rotation spot. Right now Wright has the most security out of any of these 4. Again it wasn't really his fault that he was used as a pinch runner by Farrell.This is madness.
If you could guarantee we get Good Buchholz, he'd be the guy, easy, but you can't. When you look at it, I think it's pretty clear that Rodriguez and Pomeranz have an edge over the other guys. This team is not going to sacrifice major league talent to repkenish the farm system. If they were of that mindset, they wouldn't need to replenish the farm system. The only way they trade Pomeranz instead of Buchholz is if the deal is completely ridiculously off the charts good and those trades don't really happen often.
That's oversimplifying. He had one crappy month, culminating in one truly horrific game. After that he was outstanding, with a 3.24 ERA and .613 OPS allowed in the second half. The season line looks bad, but it really was a Jekyll/Hyde year, and the two halves came in the right order.EdRo had an awful season
It comes down to who will help the MLB team more. I don't understand how you and Ras can say that EdRo is a better fit for the 2017 squad than Steven Wright given both seasons. Yes, he did turn it around slightly and I'm not saying he has to be in the pen or he's absolutely ticketed for Pawtucket. Simply that he needs to earn a rotation spot. Wright has more leeway given his 2016 season. If no trades happen then I would give the edge to Clay. Wright is the clear #4 currently.That's oversimplifying. He had one crappy month, culminating in one truly horrific game. After that he was outsanding, with a 3.24 ERA and .613 OPS allowed in the second half. The season line looks bad, but it really was a Jekyll/Hyde year, and the two halves came in the right order.
Yes. He carried the pitching in the first half. As a past SoSHer used to say, best 5 start. I think Wright will be one of the best 5 and will force his way into the rotation. Woulda loved to have him this past postseason.And steven wright had a 3.33 era over 150 innings. why are we discounting his season? he has been an above average mlb starter
It wasn't just "slightly" better. As he pointed out Edro also had his better half come in the right order, which is key to looking at how things currently stand going into 2017.It comes down to who will help the MLB team more. I don't understand how you and Ras can say that EdRo is a better fit for the 2017 squad than Steven Wright given both seasons. Yes, he did turn it around slightly and I'm not saying he has to be in the pen or he's absolutely ticketed for Pawtucket. Simply that he needs to earn a rotation spot. Wright has more leeway given his 2016 season. If no trades happen then I would give the edge to Clay. Wright is the clear #4 currently.
Steven Wright was hurt the entire 2nd half. So you really can't judge him on what he didn't pitch or the starts he was rushed back for. I'm still trying to find a reason why EdRo is a lock for the rotation. All I'm saying is if he sucks in the spring you can throw him in the pen to preserve his arm long term or you send him to AAA. If Buchholz is right then I'm not sure he's one of the 5 best starters for 2017. If trades happen then this discussion will end up being silly. But he certainly has something to prove. I'm simply saying he needs to win a spot. If EdRo throws a 10 era in the spring and Buchholz Wright and Pomeranz all pitch well then it would be a detriment to the team to have him pitch over those three.It wasn't just "slightly" better. As he pointed out Edro also had his better half come in the right order, which is key to looking at how things currently stand going into 2017.
Plus there is the whole 9 year age difference thing. This FO isn't going to sit on the 23yo promising kid, coming off a solid second half, on the min/maxy hope that Steven Wright has a slightly better overall season. Edro would need to have a really bad spring to even begin that discussion.