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Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by JohnnyTheBone, Dec 6, 2016.

  1. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    810
    From Law's chat:

    "if you could start a team around one minor league player with no mlb experience, who would be the first one or two that come to mind? Who do you see with superstar potential..with no mlb experience. Thx for your time
    Klaw: I put Kopech where I did for that reason – on the pitcher side, he’s got the best combination of upside (ace, maybe top 5 in baseball kind of starter) and probability (there’s a lot already in place)."
     
  2. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    12,449
    NY Times does a lenghty feature on Kopech

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/...s&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

    Kopech first reached 90 m.p.h. when he was 14. He hit 105 for Class A Salem last year, and last month fired a lighter ball at 110, taking a few steps and releasing it from perhaps 40 feet away. Major League Baseball eagerly promoted a clip of the feat on its official website.

    Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ hulking 6-foot-6 right-hander, has the hardest average fastball of any starter, at 98 m.p.h. Kopech is not as tall, but he is imposing, at 6-3, with a background similar to Syndergaard’s: a former first-round pick from Texas with blond hair who was traded before reaching Class AA.
     
  3. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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  4. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    10,278
    Fake news.
     
  5. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    2,254
    Hard throwing pitching prospects are fun, aren't they? They get to dream on a 105 mph heater coming to town. Let the White Sox enjoy their new toy and worry about stuff like location and control later.
     
  6. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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    656
    True*


    *Except for Jason Groome
     
  7. Mugsy's Jock

    Mugsy's Jock Longtime Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    6,693
    Feel good story about Chris Sale's first day throwing live BP at Fort Myers, with video:

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/216516562/chris-sale-delivers-goods-in-first-live-bp/

    Doesn't happen to say he's in the best shape of his life, but there was this:
     
  8. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    6,841
    Probability? The guy got suspended early last year. Don't see him as high probability compared to similar prospects.
     
  9. pokey_reese

    pokey_reese Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    10,024
    I haven't seen any research on this, but I have no reason to think that a suspension while in the low minors has a negative impact on probability of reaching the majors. The reality is, if a player is good enough, teams will not hold them back due to behavioral issues, especially ones a year or more ago. Team can always say 'X learned his lesson and has worked hard to move on" or whatever.
     
  10. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    3,187
    At least the Red Sox got more back than an aging knuckleballer.
     
  11. TonyPenaNeverJuiced

    TonyPenaNeverJuiced Member SoSH Member

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    I think you raise a good point, but something that surely must be factored in is an organizational change: was there a pattern of behavior and what happened last year was a culmination/apex/symptom? Was it one-off?

    If it is a symptom (even the worst one), will the White Sox see it themselves, and start from scratch on the length of his leash -- or will they be less tolerant/watchful?
     
  12. pokey_reese

    pokey_reese Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    10,024
    It sounds cynical, but I think his leash will be directly correlated to his walk rate, that is to say on-field performance. Look at Odor, or Delmon Young, or any other player with a history of/reputation for hot-headedness. If you can help the team win, there is little chance of them holding you back for behavioral reasons.

    I mean, sure, if he does something to get suspended again, that will obviously cost him some development time, but when you talk about the length of his leash, what does that imply? That if he acts up they will release a top-20 prospect in all of baseball? Trade for pennies on the dollar the centerpiece of their deal in which they gave up one of the most valued assets in the game? Unless/until it affects his on-field performance, his leash is effectively infinite.
     
  13. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    26,308
    No he didn't. He was out with a broken hand. His suspension was in 2015. That's not to say the broken hand (from punching his roommate in the face) isn't concerning but it didn't appear to slow down his development much and he said and did all the right things publicly in the aftermath.

    I don't think it's unreasonable to have the opinion that Kopech is extremely likely to be an impact major leaguer at this point. Even if that ends up being as a late inning reliver.
     
  14. Niastri

    Niastri Member SoSH Member

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    157
    I guess the questions I would ask is: How many of us have punched somebody in the face? How many of us turned out alright?
     
  15. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    2,152
    I dunno, Marciano ended up a lawyer.
     
  16. TonyPenaNeverJuiced

    TonyPenaNeverJuiced Member SoSH Member

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    Gonna agree on the walk rate, though of course there are some other stats that would show concentration/behavioral/sheer mechanical issues. The length of his leash: what is the balance of his progressing (unless you see him as a 2017/2018 MLBer) vs. any behavioral issues, and how are they intertwined. I doubt they would release unless he committed some awful crime, but if he's letting some kind of hotheadedness get into his game, and he's pulling the pitchers equivalent of a Delmon Young swing, he's not going to be progressing. So, at the first sign of trouble, do they reign him in, and lose a few month of development, while he works things out with Crian Cannister. I don't really see this happening (I'm actually a big fan of his stuff), but you wonder how an organization very much unlike ours handles these kinds of things. I mean... this is the former employer of Drake LaRoche.

    Yeah, that was well after I had been a highly touted prospect, so no correlation for me.
     
  17. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    Clearly the kid is screwed then. Probably screwing a crazy chick too.
     
  18. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

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    There's probably little doubt that Kopech is currently an immature shithead. Between the suspension and the broken hand, he has had a knack for making bad decisions so far as a professional. None of that necessarily means his major league career will be affected: we all know about Buchholz' laptop incident as he turned out alright.

    Being an immature shithead would give me pause, and I was on record last year as wanting Kopech gone after punching his roommate, but that doesn't mean he won't be an effective major league player.
     
  19. drbretto

    drbretto guidence counselor Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    7,314
    A cautionary tale if ever there was one...
     
  20. Dombrowski worst evah

    Dombrowski worst evah lurker

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    2
    Seems Cameron agrees:
    Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Best long-term prospect: Kopech or Y. Alvarez?

    12:26
    Dave Cameron: I’ll take Kopech.
     
  21. bosox0192

    bosox0192 lurker

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    113
    Article on Moncada and his life and transitions since leaving Cuba including the trade.

    http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...pect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut
     
  22. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    28,506
    Both Moncada and Kopech sent to minor leagues on Wednesday.
     
  23. mwonow

    mwonow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,508
    Dear Chris Sale - I apologize. I knew you were good, but I had no idea how frickin' awesome you are. Thanks for today - looking forward to years more of the same!
     
  24. rotundlio

    rotundlio Member SoSH Member

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    Sale's edit: 21 swings and misses are the most by a Red Sox in 10 years. It's his 21ˢᵗ game with 12 Ks since '12, eight more than any other player (Kershaw). Additionally, I like him.

    I'm gonna go DO'B jinx and point out that in 17 thousand pitches the only arm injury he's incurred is a flexor strain. You know Chris Sale spent 10 innings in the minor leagues? In his only other rehab stint he struck out eleven in four innings.

    By this point in Randy Johnson's career, Randy Johnson had a 4.01 ERA and 1.52 K/BB ratio. We should all wear #41 tomorrow.
     
    #624 rotundlio, Apr 15, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2017
  25. LesterFan

    LesterFan Member SoSH Member

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    7,061
    To be clear, this is swings and misses on pitches inside the strike zone. In total he had 21 swings and misses.
     
  26. uk_sox_fan

    uk_sox_fan Member SoSH Member

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    526
  27. Drocca

    Drocca darrell foster wallace SoSH Member

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    17,830
    I love watching Sale pitch. His pace is tremendous. He is waiting for the batter on every pitch.
     
  28. Average Reds

    Average Reds Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    It's really wonderful to watch. And a huge difference from some of the starters the Sox have had in recent years. (Lester, Clay)
     
  29. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    22,725
    Buehrle was still with the White Sox when Sale was just getting started. I wonder if he learned this from him or if he pitched like this in college.
     
  30. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    The speed of game factor not only charms spectators; it enhances the contrast among his three pitch types.
     
  31. ledsox

    ledsox Member SoSH Member

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    White Sox pitching coach, Don Cooper is a proponent of fast working pitchers. I clocked Sale at just under 12 seconds between some of his deliveries yesterday. Really nice to watch.
     
  32. Drocca

    Drocca darrell foster wallace SoSH Member

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    17,830
    I thought about this yesterday. It must seem a bit disorientating to hitters and really speed the game up in anxious way, particularly as a contrast to most pitchers. I wrote this entire minor point in between Joe Kelly pitches.
     
  33. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,980
    This, man. I'd watched a few of his games, but holy cow is this guy great. Quick worker, nasty stuff, surly attitude. Prep that RF facade space, IMO.
     
  34. Georgy Zhukov

    Georgy Zhukov lurker

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    481
    What a huge acquisition, without him the Sox would be a train wreck right now. I haven't enjoyed watching a pitcher as much as Sale since Pedro.
     
  35. adam42381

    adam42381 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,952
    I know it's crazy early, but I was thinking the same thing during his last start. I think it's the combination of skill and pace that I can't get enough of.
     
  36. Jim Ed Rice in HOF

    Jim Ed Rice in HOF Red-headed Skrub child Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,244
    SSS and all but this is a nice start.


    Chris Sale’s 1st 3 starts in Boston: 21.2 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 29 K.

    Pedro Martinez: 23 IP, 12 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 32 K

    Pedro was a bad man
     
  37. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    125
    He's had terrible run support. I know it's only four starts now, but has anyone had worse run support in their first four starts? He should be 4-0.

    Edited to reflect 4 starts now not 3.
     
  38. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    8,020
    He's allowed 3 runs in 29.2 innings. In the same span, they've scored 4 runs for him. It's remarkable.

    But the team is 3-1 in his starts. The only thing that is really suffering so far is his personal win-loss record, which means squat.
     
  39. Lowrielicious

    Lowrielicious Member SoSH Member

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    3,167
    I remember a study from years ago that looked at the time between pitches and its effect on a hitters ability to re-adjust. Can't dig it up at the moment as google is flooded with pace of play articles around those terms.
    I believe the conclusion was that the more time between the previous pitch and the current one meant the less impact the previous pitch had on the hitters ability to recognise and adjust to the current pitch. For example a previous changeup had less effect on a hitter being "behind" on a next pitch fastball when there was more seconds in between.
    I'm not sure how scientifically rigorous it was but I am surprised there is not more study in that area.
     
  40. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar lurker

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    400
    If Sale were to continue at his present pace he would end up with 32 starts and an 8 and 8 record with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He also would be on pace to pitch 237.1 innings, striking out 339.8 batters while allowing 46.5 walks and 8.1 HR.

    Would he get the Cy Young Award?
     
  41. DGreenwood

    DGreenwood Member SoSH Member

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    1,141
    Yes.
     
  42. Sprowl

    Sprowl Mikey Lowell of the Sandbox Dope

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    I agree -- it would be in King Felix Cy Young territory, just a lot better.

    Sale is a treat to watch. He has wicked movement on all his pitches. It's very rare to see this much deviation from initial trajectory on the fastball (upper right), and the slider (lower left). That yields ~18" difference in horizontal movement between fastball and breaking ball. Home plate is only 17" wide. No wonder batters are getting whipsawed.

    [​IMG]

    Sale's long whip-like delivery just above sidearm angle generates movement on his pitches at Koji levels (imparted spin averaging 2500 RPM), but Sales throws much, much harder. He also throws strikes, lots of them, and when he misses the zone, his pitches are almost always close enough to tempt the batter. Almost every slider in this chart just below the zone was rewarded with a failed checked swing.

    [​IMG]

    And Sale misses bats. He misses them with his fastball (9 whiffs of 40 four-seam fastballs), his slider (8 whiffs of 32 sliders), and occasionally his change (3 whiffs of 20 changeups). It's not very often that one sees a sinker-slider power pitcher, much less a left-handed one, but Sale is the best of his kind. Such velocity, sustained through the 8th inning, and so much separation between his pitches in movement and velocity (97 mph to 76 mph); and such remarkable command of all his pitches... Sale is PitchFX pr0n.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Pedroia's Itchy Nose lurker

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    53
    The comments about Sale's pace are not overstated. There were several times during today's game (4/20) where mlb.tv got stuck buffering at the end of a commercial break and by the time it recovered the Sox were up again.
     
  44. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    4,986
    At that point, shouldn't the question be would he win MVP? I honestly think he'd might win even at 8-8. A 0.91 era? 340K?
     
  45. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    6,545
    I highly doubt he goes 8-8. It's impossible for the run support to be that horrendous for an entire season.
     
  46. uk_sox_fan

    uk_sox_fan Member SoSH Member

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    526
    Updating the Pedro/Sale debut comparison: after 4 games the two stand as follows:
    • Pedro 32IP 16H 3R 3ER 7BB 44K 1HR 0HBP 116BF 461 Pit 300 Str 80.3 aGSc
    • Sale 29.2IP 15H 4R 4ER 6BB 42K 1HR 0HBP 108BF 425 Pit 288 Str 77.3 aGSc
    In Pedro's 5th start of his Boston career (22-Apr '98 @ Det), however, he threw up a (relative) stinker: 5.1 IP 9H 4ER 3BB 7K 1HR and 1 HBP bringing his ERA up to 1.69 and with a no-decision (the Sox would win the game 8-5 by rallying from a 4-1 deficit to score 3 in the 8th and 4 in the 9th).

    This means Sale needs the following line or better next Wednesday against the MFY in order to match or move ahead of Pedro's 1st 5 games:

    7 2/3 IP 7H 4ER 4BB 9K 1 HR 1 HBP 34BF 134 Pit 73 Str

    (the above line would get him a GSc of 54 but he'd need a 56 - i.e. one fewer hit or two fewer walks - to match PM's aGSc)

    He's not going to match the number of pitches (which is a good thing) and the 7 2/3 IP and 9K would require another very good game again but the rest of it is back to within reach of mere mortals and so well within Sale's capabilities.
     
  47. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    1,365
    It seems like Sale is also matching Pedro is shitty run support in games he pitches. I'm not sure how much a look into Pedro's run support per game would actually bear this out, but it felt like every time I had a chance to catch him pitching (radio, telly... only once live) he either lost the game 0-1 or didn't get the W for the team scoring winning runs after he came out. Always drove me insane....
     
  48. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    8,020
    Pedro seemed to get reasonable run support overall in his Red Sox tenure. Doesn't mean there weren't stretches where he was getting Sale like support.

    Here's his personal run support versus the team's runs per game average in the same season...

    Year - PM - team
    1998 - 5.1 - 5.41
    1999 - 5.7 - 5.16
    2000 - 4.5 - 4.89
    2001 - 4.1 - 4.80
    2002 - 6.1 - 5.30
    2003 - 5.1 - 5.93
    2004 - 4.9 - 5.86
     
  49. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

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    9,152
    He'll get run support.

    It's 4 starts in April...
     
  50. TheoShmeo

    TheoShmeo Skrub's sympathy case Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    11,081
    Undoubtedly true. But the early small sample and the fact that Pedro got less run support than the team average in five out seven seasons makes me wonder if aces tend to get less run support than other pitchers as their teammates perhaps relax somewhat. There may be nothing to that -- probably isn't and this is just random and SSS -- but it would be interesting to see if there is a larger trend.
     

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