Celtics vs. the Lebronaires

djbayko

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Yeah, good call on Baynes starting. That completely changed the game early: every time Rozier was caught on LBJ, Baynes would kick him out. It worked because Thompson is a non-threat offensively, so starting Baynes let Baynes roam at will, and stopped Cleveland from getting an iso-rhythm.

Edit: also agree with getting Horford to the top of the key. Even beyond spacing, the offense bogged down badly when they tried to post him.
Rozier definitely needed to find his way off of Lebron. But it’s also weird that Lebron couldn’t simply find a way to drive around Baynes...even early on when he had his stamina. It’s like the slow but large wing span makes him incapable of driving for some reason.
 

benhogan

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Definitely, and we saw the same with Embiid. Brad always talks about physicality having a cumulative effect, and there's almost certainly something to it.

A fascinating issue in these playoffs, with the emergence of iso and post play in the newer switchier NBA, has been the importance of fatigue. When you have players like Embiid, LeBron, Durant, and Harden, who are mismatches against almost anyone, but then can engineer switches for even greater advantages, it's easy to think "oh, well he can just take the other guy for 1.1 points per possession or whatever." In practice, however, it turns out that that takes a ton out of even elite players, to the point where it's not a sustainable strategy. We just didn't see that highlighted when defenses were switching less, since there was less opportunity to iso like crazy.
agreed. That's a really good point about "physicality having a cumulative effect" and how it works in practice. Definitely passes the eye test.
 

lovegtm

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To me, saying Horford is Boston's best player is similar to saying Draymond Green is the best Warrior. Neither is accurate, yet if Golden State was without Curry and Durant, and Green was the glue that held the team together and had them tied 2-2 with Houston. Well, I could see people making the claim .
Horford is great on D, better offensively than Draymond, and Kyrie isn't at the level of Steph and Durant. It's arguable, but Horford has a much better case for being the Cs best player than Draymond does for the Dubs.
 

InstaFace

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Rozier definitely needed to find his way off of Lebron. But it’s also weird that Lebron couldn’t simply find a way to drive around Baynes...even early on when he had his stamina. It’s like the slow but large wing span makes him incapable of driving for some reason.
Well, other than the time he drove past Baynes for a layup like Baynes had cement overshoes.

I think when they iso, you consider sending a double as soon as he starts to move, and kinda go zone with the others to stop a bail-out pass from hurting you.
 

benhogan

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Thompson is a key figure for Lue in the sense that he dictates who Brad plays and when he plays them since TT is a terror vs Horford. It's critical to have Baynes on the floor for much if not all of TT's minutes or it forces matchup problems at multiple positions. So he IS a key factor in the lineups we have on the floor or else TT HAS shown that he can change a game against us......Baynes is literally our neutralizer.
HRB, you were also on this a week ago. I'm scratching my head here.

Why do you think it took 3 games for this adjustment to be made?

Do you think Brad just didn't want to overreact to Lue's initial adjustment?
 

djbayko

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Well, other than the time he drove past Baynes for a layup like Baynes had cement overshoes.

I think when they iso, you consider sending a double as soon as he starts to move, and kinda go zone with the others to stop a bail-out pass from hurting you.
Yes there was that one time he decided to....

Actually, that makes my point stronger. It should happen every time, right?
 

eddiew112

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HRB, you were also on this a week ago. I'm scratching my head here.

Why do you think it took 3 games for this adjustment to be made?

Do you think Brad just didn't want to overreact to Lue's initial adjustment?
I don't get it either, especially since Baynes was brought in after Gortat and Thompson ate us alive on the boards in the playoffs last year to counter guys like that.
 

lars10

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Well, other than the time he drove past Baynes for a layup like Baynes had cement overshoes.

I think when they iso, you consider sending a double as soon as he starts to move, and kinda go zone with the others to stop a bail-out pass from hurting you.
On that one it looked to me like Baynes thought he had help since Bron started his drive from the three point line.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, you were also on this a week ago. I'm scratching my head here.

Why do you think it took 3 games for this adjustment to be made?

Do you think Brad just didn't want to overreact to Lue's initial adjustment?
Clearly our coach is in way over his head.
 

lars10

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There are lots of X and O stuff, but it seems the secondary guys just shoot better at home.
One thing from watching on TV.. to me it looks like the Celtics keep the crowd lit more..and Cleveland seems darker. That may just be my TV, but I can only imagine that the different shooting background (if the light actually is different) would be difficult to adjust to over a seven game series.




Looking at the two pictures.. I think the Cavs having the first tier lower makes it a bit darker a bit lower...but that may not be true in real life on the court.
 
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Eddie Jurak

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Truly one of the most absurd things I have ever heard an NBA coach say.

Brad should troll Lue by starting Ojeleye in game 6, taking him out after 30 seconds, and then sending him frequently to the scorer's table but never actually putting him into the game.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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So, Lebron has really become proficient at the fadeaway from the elbow. I'd argue it's his most consistent, and potentially efficient, shot this series. Especially when Baynes is switched onto him.

I do wonder, though, if his success with it has made him less aggressive in driving to the rim. The teams at its best when James is getting opponentss into foul trouble and collapsing defenses to kick out for open 3s. While hes been making the elbow fadeaway at a great rate - it feels like hes shooting 90% this series with it - I think its having an effect on the overall success of the offense. It's weird to say that LBJ making shots is hurting the team, but it really feels like it has taken the team out of it's natural rhythm and is forcing a ton of ISO stuff and forced shots. This team got both wins when Lebron was in the lane dissecting the defense from within. The mid-range game feels like a short term loss, long term gain for the Celtics.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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HRB, you were also on this a week ago. I'm scratching my head here.

Why do you think it took 3 games for this adjustment to be made?

Do you think Brad just didn't want to overreact to Lue's initial adjustment?
Because when you start Baynes, you put Horford on LBJ and a counter Lue has is not force the switch and try to get Al in foul trouble. Also, it takes a scorer off the floor and clogs up the lanes.

But Baynes did yeoman's work on the boards and CLE went after Rozier so they the LBJ on Al matchup didn't matter.

At the end of the day, I agree with Reggie Cleveland. Cs shot 3P way better than in CLE and CLE shot way worse and I don't think the looks were materially different.

Given how reliant these two teams are on 3P and given that role players shoot better at home, team that wins will probably be the first team that shoots well on the road.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Truly one of the most absurd things I have ever heard an NBA coach say.

Brad should troll Lue by starting Ojeleye in game 6, taking him out after 30 seconds, and then sending him frequently to the scorer's table but never actually putting him into the game.
Korver matches up with Ojeleye to avoid having Cs go after him on defense every time down the floor (which the Cs should do more of).
 

Strike4

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I do wonder, though, if his success with it has made him less aggressive in driving to the rim. The teams at its best when James is getting opponentss into foul trouble and collapsing defenses to kick out for open 3s. .
To this and the point above about Lebron not taking it to the hoop on Baynes - I think the mileage is starting to add up. You can almost see that when Lebron has the ball in iso, he's working it out: "Me driving will more than likely result in points or free throws, but it will sap X number of my health units. If I kick it to JR/Kevin/George etc. I will lose less health units, but there is less chance of points."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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To this and the point above about Lebron not taking it to the hoop on Baynes - I think the mileage is starting to add up. You can almost see that when Lebron has the ball in iso, he's working it out: "Me driving will more than likely result in points or free throws, but it will sap X number of my health units. If I kick it to JR/Kevin/George etc. I will lose less health units, but there is less chance of points."
LBJ lead the league in minutes; has the 2nd highest usage % in the playoffs and highest the Conference Finals (37%). Someone said upthread or in the Game thread that going to every other day is going to help the Cs; looks like that's accurate.
 

Devizier

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I do wonder, though, if his success with it has made him less aggressive in driving to the rim.
I'm not sure James' first step is as quick/deadly as it used to be. He's obviously effective in other ways but he has only consistently beaten guys like Baynes off the dribble in this series. He's tired, too, but that's been covered elswhere.
 

Toe Nash

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Korver matches up with Ojeleye to avoid having Cs go after him on defense every time down the floor (which the Cs should do more of).
Yeah, this was my immediate thought. I'd argue that Korver is decent enough on D (he certainly seems better than JR Smith for example, and Smith got 26 minutes) and they have good enough help D that Korver's offensive contributions would outweigh his deficiencies on D, and they should put him out there even if Semi is not playing. But I can see the reasoning.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, this was my immediate thought. I'd argue that Korver is decent enough on D (he certainly seems better than JR Smith for example, and Smith got 26 minutes) and they have good enough help D that Korver's offensive contributions would outweigh his deficiencies on D, and they should put him out there even if Semi is not playing. But I can see the reasoning.
Korver is much worse than JR on D. Korver got scorched in Gs1 & 2.

He did better in Gs3 & 4 because CLE were playing bigger and packed the paint when JB got the ball (having Ojeleye and/or Smart out there allowed them to do that) and I felt the other Cs were standing around waiting for JB to dunk the ball (plus JB is not great yet and seeing cutters).

If Korver is playing with Hill, JR, and Love, there are going to be lots of layups. If Korver is playing with TT, Nance, and Green, he gets help at the rim.
 
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benhogan

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Because when you start Baynes, you put Horford on LBJ and a counter Lue has is not force the switch and try to get Al in foul trouble. Also, it takes a scorer off the floor and clogs up the lanes.

But Baynes did yeoman's work on the boards and CLE went after Rozier so they the LBJ on Al matchup didn't matter.

At the end of the day, I agree with Reggie Cleveland. Cs shot 3P way better than in CLE and CLE shot way worse and I don't think the looks were materially different.

Given how reliant these two teams are on 3P and given that role players shoot better at home, team that wins will probably be the first team that shoots well on the road.
Wade, really have a few nits to pick here:
-Brown, MaMo, Smart were the primary guys on LBJ.
-Horford was defensively on Love
-On offense, Baynes can play on the perimeter without clogging the lane.
-Baynes was in there to neutralize Tristen Thompson, play physical defense.
-MaMo played the 2nd most minutes so we still got the benefit of his offensive upside.
-Celtics shot 33% from the 3pt line vs. 27% for Cavs, better but nothing earth-shattering.

-This game was won with a physical defense. In fact, that was the worst shooting performance by the Celtics these playoffs and the 3rd worst shooting playoff performance by the Celtics in the last 35yrs.

Yikes, its like you didn't watch the game at all.
 
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BaseballJones

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I think that there have been adjustments made by both teams. The Cavs made an adjustment in really trying to take advantage of smaller guys in the post when they P&R. The Celtics have countered by immediately bringing big man help to guys like Rozier. The Cavs adjusted to THAT by running some action where, say, LeBron is backing Rozier down, who gets help from Horford, which leads to Rozier sprinting out to cover Love at the perimeter, and LeBron finds Love for open jumpers because the ball gets there faster than Rozier can. On the other end, the Celtics were far more purposeful about getting Horford the ball in the post. Interesting chess match.

But at the end of the day, the saying that the NBA is a "make or miss league" is true. It's been especially true with Cleveland's role players.

G1: Bos 108, Cle 83
Korver: 2-6 (1-5), 5 points
Smith: 2-9 (0-3), 4 points
Clarkson: 4-11 (1-2), 10 points
Hill: 2-4 (1-2), 5 points
TOT: 10-30 (3-12), 24 points

G2: Bos 107, Cle 94
Korver: 4-8 (2-5), 11 points
Smith: 0-7 (0-4), 0 points
Clarkson: DNP
Hill: 1-4 (0-2), 3 points
TOT: 5-19 (2-11), 14 points

G3: Bos 86, Cle 116
Korver: 5-5 (4-4), 14 points
Smith: 3-8 (3-4), 11 points
Clarkson: 3-11 (3-7), 9 points
Hill: 4-11 (3-9), 13 points
TOT: 15-35 (13-24), 47 points

G4: Bos 102, Cle 111
Korver: 4-7 (2-5), 14 points
Smith: 3-9 (3-6), 9 points
Clarkson: 0-0 (0-0), 0 points
Hill: 6-9 (1-3), 13 points
TOT: 13-25 (6-14), 36 points

G5: Bos 96, Cle 83
Korver: 2-6 (2-5), 7 points
Smith: 1-6 (0-4), 2 points
Clarkson: 3-10 (2-7), 8 points
Hill: 1-5 (0-0), 7 points
TOT: 7-27 (4-16), 24 points

So in Boston, these four guys have shot a combined 22-76 (28.9%), 9-39 (23.1%) from three point land, for a total of 62 points (5.2 points per game per guy).

In Cleveland, these four guys have shot a combined 28-60 (46.7%), 19-38 (50.0%) from three point land, for a total of 83 points (10.4 points per game per guy).

So far, it's been a "make or miss league" with the other adage of "role players play better at home than on the road" type of series. Dramatically so, in fact.
 

DJnVa

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From before the series:

Locked on Celtics podcast theorizes that they'll let Lebron get his, but lean on him, bang him--not to stop him, but to make it so he's shooting jump shots in the 4th quarter. And this plan doesn't have to work every game--just 3 or 4 times. Because the Celtics should have no trouble scoring--it's just if they can wear him down. Somewhat.
Wear him down.
 

DJnVa

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Per yahoo though, Korver played 90 minutes in first 4 games. Only 31 of those came with Semi on the floor. Lue is scrambling.

Minutes played for Korver:
G1: 23
G2: 21
G3: 20
G4: 25
G5: 18

It's not like there's 20 minutes missing here--he didn't go from 38 minutes to 18. He went from 22.5 to 18.5
 

Rook05

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To this and the point above about Lebron not taking it to the hoop on Baynes - I think the mileage is starting to add up. You can almost see that when Lebron has the ball in iso, he's working it out: "Me driving will more than likely result in points or free throws, but it will sap X number of my health units. If I kick it to JR/Kevin/George etc. I will lose less health units, but there is less chance of points."
I think this is right, and probably the primary motivation of Brad to allow Baynes to get switched on to LeBron by daring him to drive again and again.
 

lars10

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To this and the point above about Lebron not taking it to the hoop on Baynes - I think the mileage is starting to add up. You can almost see that when Lebron has the ball in iso, he's working it out: "Me driving will more than likely result in points or free throws, but it will sap X number of my health units. If I kick it to JR/Kevin/George etc. I will lose less health units, but there is less chance of points."
He seems to also take basically the first game of every series off and is quick to shut it down if he thinks the game is unwinnable. At one time he may have fought for every game but now he seems to only fight for the ones he thinks he can win..and the difference is very noticeable.
 

lars10

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And yet, I fully expect him to destroy us in epic fashion in Game 6.
i have ptsd from all the years of playing LeBron too.. after they won the first two I felt relief..lost two-cmon not again.. win last night - please just one more.
 

bosockboy

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Looks like the strategy was taking the long game with LeBron, losing some battles and (hopefully) winning the war. He gets his 40 but you get your pound of flesh for it and wear him to a nub by late in the series. Hopefully Korver and Smith are cold in Game 6.
 

TFisNEXT

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And yet, I fully expect him to destroy us in epic fashion in Game 6.
That and I expect all the scrubs on the Cavs to shoot way better...I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting mostly a shit show in game 6.

My hope is that they play more like the final 3 quarters of game 4...they actually hung in pretty nicely that game after the disastrous start and made Cleveland still work for it in the 4th quarter.
 

allstonite

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Per yahoo though, Korver played 90 minutes in first 4 games. Only 31 of those came with Semi on the floor. Lue is scrambling.

Minutes played for Korver:
G1: 23
G2: 21
G3: 20
G4: 25
G5: 18

It's not like there's 20 minutes missing here--he didn't go from 38 minutes to 18. He went from 22.5 to 18.5
I think he's covering for a Korver injury without wanting to admit it in public. The Semi thing is too dumb to be true, even for Lue.
 

benhogan

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That and I expect all the scrubs on the Cavs to shoot way better...I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting mostly a shit show in game 6.

My hope is that they play more like the final 3 quarters of game 4...they actually hung in pretty nicely that game after the disastrous start and made Cleveland still work for it in the 4th quarter.
I'd expect Game 6 to be much closer then Games 3 & 4. Defense travels.