It's matchups plain and simple. We saw Dallas exploit Isaiah on switches throughout the game and opened up by posting Deron on the block last night. From the opening tip we were reacting to what Dallas controlled. It wasn't simply a random trap game of not showing up and Brooklyn had a similar advantage running their sets through Lopez who we have no answer for prior to their backcourt being decimated by injuries.
Yes this..its Simmons or bust for me. We have enough pretty good guys. We need a freakin superstar.
So you are going to complain about any result besides the #1 pick? Why bother at all?
Not me. I just fear that Murphy's Law is going to stick is with pick n+1 in an n player draft.
Look on the bright side, last time that happened we finished the summer with a championship roster, and that was an even worse draft result (n+3).
We might have been better situated then, though - we had our 3 assets: Pierce, Big Al, and the #5.
The Sixers improvement is real as they now have an NBA-caliber PG able to perform rudimentary functions that those before him this season could not. It is literally like (k)night and day(e).
Yeah, at the very least the Sixers' improvement makes me feel pretty good about their chances of beating Brooklyn a couple times in their 3 remaining matchups. Once upon a time that looked like 4 easy wins even for the Nets--although they did almost lose to them when they were worst-team-ever bad.
These are the most ridiculous "rankings" around. My three year old daughter could watch Ben Simmons play and know that whoever has the highest shot at the number pick is number one, then the second highest chance, third and so forth. Even if it isn't Ben Simons, this is the NBA, not the NFL. Celtics and Nuggets have nothing of value for this draft on the 76ers and Lakers at this point.Tankathon draft power rankings:
1Boston Celtics 182.09
2Denver Nuggets 145.24
3Philadelphia 76ers 142.76
4Los Angeles Lakers 106.60
The method of assigning relative value to each slot in the draft is explained here.
The thing with Simmons is that he's a can't miss in that he is already a very good and developed NBA player but there is a decent chance he ends up not being the best NBA player in this draft. To me the Danny Manning/Lamar Odom comps are spot on......he lacks the physical gifts to be a LeBron or Durant type. We "could" still draft the best NBA player at #3 however each comes with higher star/busy variance than Simmons.......Ingram, Dunn, Brown, and a few others have the length/athleticism upside to be a better player should they develop their skillset to match the upside that their bodies give him. After the can't misses of Simmons and Dunn (and maybe Ellenson) the mid-lottery is where to take the risk to hit on high upside guys.
Good post regarding Simmons, but on your last point, what about Leon Powe? Big Baby Davis? Rajon Rondo? Jared Sullinger? Kelly Olynyk? Avery Bradley? Those are all since Tony Allen, and the jury is still out on Young, Hunter, and Mickey. Ainge has blasted mid-to-late first rounders and second-rounders onto the expressway.
I should have been more clear. Danny has hit on NBA players late 1st/2nd but not difference makers. Allen was for a period THE best perimeter defender in the league (one could argue LeBron I get that).....that is the type of impact I'm referring to not a nice backup big like Powe, Baby, Olynyk, and whatever Sully is.
I don't follow your definition of difference maker that includes Clint Capela and Tony Allen but not Kelly Olynyk.
Allen obviously impacted games at a high level in playoff competition as a LeBron and Durant stopper (slower down-er). He was recognized as the leader of that defense and that team of a few years ago who were giving everyone fits in the playoffs......has Olynyk ever had this type of impact or project to do so?
Actually GS passed on him too -- twice (#7 Barnes and #30 Ezeli).
If you don't consider a 7 footer who can handle the ball and is a top 5 3 point shooter a success at #13, your bar for drafting success is far too high. Which GMs are good at it of Ainge isn't?
Where did I say the pick wasn't a success? Olynyk is turning into a nice little rotation player......the ones that are obtainable for relatively little whenever you need them. The draft is where you should be targeting and occasionally hitting on high upside guys like trading up for Greek Freak rather than an Olynyk. He was a safe pick but a guy like Freak has obscene value when you can get them. See: Jefferson, Al.....who landed us Garnett.
Eh, forget it. We have this exact argument one every couple of months. Just talking past each other.
Al Jefferson, there's another post-Tony Allen mid-first grand slam for Ainge!
They were drafted the same year. Silly technicality.....Jefferson was drafted before Allen. That is the type of player I want Ainge going after mid-1st.....the Freaks, Jeffersons, Melo's, etc. The guys who potentially can be difference makers. Olynyk is a solid soft backup who is a matchup-specific guy similar to Sully those guys are everywhere.
We get how much you dislike Olynyk but I don't see how you can say with a straight face that Al Jefferson has "difference maker" potential and Olynyk doesn't. When Jefferson was drafted, he was seen a young and preternaturally gifted post player who had rebounding upside but whose lack of athleticism probably would limit his defensive ability and overall contribution in the NBA. Olynyk has skills that few 7 footers ever have - particularly shooting, ball handling, and passing - but as we all agree, his lack of explosiveness may limit him defensively.
There's no need to put words in my mouth......where have I said I don't like Olynyk? I mean I like him for what he is just not for you Heinsohn and some others think he can become which is fantasyland imo. He's extremely limited as a shooter despite his high pct that masquerades as being "efficient" when he passes up so many shots in the flow of the offense that forces Isaiah to force shots against the clock. He's a solid backup who struggles against length and athleticism on both ends which is why he's so effective on the second unit. Brad utiltized him very well most of the time.
The Garnett trade has nothing to do with upside potential, and speaking of putting words in people's mouths, don't put any in mine. I'm not saying KO is going to be a perennial all-star (although I have stated in the past that I think he will make one All-Star team) but I think Jefferson and Olynyk are both good examples of the way Danny drafts - he tries to find people with at least one NBA-level talent and see what that gets him. Of course, he doesn't go grab the uber-athletic prospects like Giannis or Gorbet or Perry Jones but this way he gets assets.
I'm not a follower of the college game but I did read the write-up of how the power rankings were constructed. They are based upon how the careers of the players drafted at each draft position turned out. You may be certain about this year's draft, but sometimes there are surprises. Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash and Karl Malone were drafted 7, 9, 15 and 13. Not to mention Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan (3). The Tankathon numbers include some value,if modest, to the many second round picks that the Celtics have. Nobody believes that the second round will produce the generational star that we all hope for. Rather, they might be part of a package that Danny can use to acquire serious talent.
