Zooming in on the component pieces of the advanced metrics, it looks like the arm is responsible for most of the real defensive decline the past two years, presumably because of his 2016 elbow injury. Here's his history in component terms, starting with 2012 when he first became a regular. I'm lumping the components into three categories: Range (DRS: rPM, UZR: RngR), Chops (DRS: rGFP, UZR: ErrR), and Arm (DRS: rARM, UZR: ARM). The number for each will be the average of the DRS and UZR numbers. I'll specify how many innings in which field for each year, but the numbers will combine LF and RF.
2012: 833 innings, all in LF
Range: -6
Chops: 7
Arm: 1
Total: 2
2013: 563 innings, 377 LF, 186 RF
Range: -5.8
Chops: -1
Arm: -1.3
Total: -8.1
2014: 931 innings, 689 LF, 232 RF
Range: -0.3
Chops: -0.2
Arm: -0.4
Total: -0.9
2015: 1306 innings, all in RF
Range: -3.3
Chops: 2.3
Arm: 6.9
Total: 5.9
2016: 1027 innings, all in RF
Range: -15.1
Chops: -1.2
Arm: -3.4
Total: -19.7
2017: 945 innings, all in RF
Range: 1.2
Chops: -1.8
Arm: -5.9
Total: -6.5
A couple of things here:
1) He's always had decent-to-good numbers in the "Chops" department. When it comes to finishing plays, he's respectable; certainly nowhere near a butcher.
2) His range started out weak, then improved to fringe-average in 2014-15, then fell off a cliff in 2016, then recovered to average-plus last year. His own explanation for 2016 is that when he came back from the elbow injury he was wall-shy, which is not hard to understand. If you throw that year out, his range is basically average-ish.
3) His arm was OK. Then he hurt himself. Now it's not OK anymore. Shit happens.
What these numbers tell me is that while he is certainly not as good an outfielder as the three guys ahead of him in the pecking order, he's not a guy Cora should be looking for reasons *not* to put out there, either. Arm aside -- and now that he'll be playing almost exclusively LF, that's not much of an issue -- it looks like the worst word it would be fair to use for JDM as a defender is "meh".
2012: 833 innings, all in LF
Range: -6
Chops: 7
Arm: 1
Total: 2
2013: 563 innings, 377 LF, 186 RF
Range: -5.8
Chops: -1
Arm: -1.3
Total: -8.1
2014: 931 innings, 689 LF, 232 RF
Range: -0.3
Chops: -0.2
Arm: -0.4
Total: -0.9
2015: 1306 innings, all in RF
Range: -3.3
Chops: 2.3
Arm: 6.9
Total: 5.9
2016: 1027 innings, all in RF
Range: -15.1
Chops: -1.2
Arm: -3.4
Total: -19.7
2017: 945 innings, all in RF
Range: 1.2
Chops: -1.8
Arm: -5.9
Total: -6.5
A couple of things here:
1) He's always had decent-to-good numbers in the "Chops" department. When it comes to finishing plays, he's respectable; certainly nowhere near a butcher.
2) His range started out weak, then improved to fringe-average in 2014-15, then fell off a cliff in 2016, then recovered to average-plus last year. His own explanation for 2016 is that when he came back from the elbow injury he was wall-shy, which is not hard to understand. If you throw that year out, his range is basically average-ish.
3) His arm was OK. Then he hurt himself. Now it's not OK anymore. Shit happens.
What these numbers tell me is that while he is certainly not as good an outfielder as the three guys ahead of him in the pecking order, he's not a guy Cora should be looking for reasons *not* to put out there, either. Arm aside -- and now that he'll be playing almost exclusively LF, that's not much of an issue -- it looks like the worst word it would be fair to use for JDM as a defender is "meh".
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