Bradford: The Red Sox' big change you didn't see coming

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Zooming in on the component pieces of the advanced metrics, it looks like the arm is responsible for most of the real defensive decline the past two years, presumably because of his 2016 elbow injury. Here's his history in component terms, starting with 2012 when he first became a regular. I'm lumping the components into three categories: Range (DRS: rPM, UZR: RngR), Chops (DRS: rGFP, UZR: ErrR), and Arm (DRS: rARM, UZR: ARM). The number for each will be the average of the DRS and UZR numbers. I'll specify how many innings in which field for each year, but the numbers will combine LF and RF.

2012: 833 innings, all in LF
Range: -6
Chops: 7
Arm: 1
Total: 2

2013: 563 innings, 377 LF, 186 RF
Range: -5.8
Chops: -1
Arm: -1.3
Total: -8.1

2014: 931 innings, 689 LF, 232 RF
Range: -0.3
Chops: -0.2
Arm: -0.4
Total: -0.9

2015: 1306 innings, all in RF
Range: -3.3
Chops: 2.3
Arm: 6.9
Total: 5.9

2016: 1027 innings, all in RF
Range: -15.1
Chops: -1.2
Arm: -3.4
Total: -19.7

2017: 945 innings, all in RF
Range: 1.2
Chops: -1.8
Arm: -5.9
Total: -6.5

A couple of things here:

1) He's always had decent-to-good numbers in the "Chops" department. When it comes to finishing plays, he's respectable; certainly nowhere near a butcher.
2) His range started out weak, then improved to fringe-average in 2014-15, then fell off a cliff in 2016, then recovered to average-plus last year. His own explanation for 2016 is that when he came back from the elbow injury he was wall-shy, which is not hard to understand. If you throw that year out, his range is basically average-ish.
3) His arm was OK. Then he hurt himself. Now it's not OK anymore. Shit happens.

What these numbers tell me is that while he is certainly not as good an outfielder as the three guys ahead of him in the pecking order, he's not a guy Cora should be looking for reasons *not* to put out there, either. Arm aside -- and now that he'll be playing almost exclusively LF, that's not much of an issue -- it looks like the worst word it would be fair to use for JDM as a defender is "meh".
 
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DeweyWins

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Jan 24, 2012
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The only real concern I have around JDM in the field is in small samples in NL parks in games that count more than others (read: best of 7). While I really like the feel of the Killer B outfield, and want to liken them to the Golden Outfield of Lewis-Speaker-Hooper, I'm willing to take a season-long hit on defense in exchange for the dangerous bat JDM puts in the lineup. But what about the biggest stage?

Let's look at Big Papi in his 7 World Series contests in National League parks:
  • 2004, WS Game 3, 1-for-4, single, 6 putouts (all assisted groudouts), 1 assist (threw out Suppan trying to score after recording putout at first), no errors, replaced in 7th, Mientkewicz recorded 4 putouts, 2 unassisted
  • 2004, WS Game 4, 1-for-3, double, run (scored on Dirt Dog's double), walk, 8 putouts (1 unassisted, 1 foul popup unassisted, all others assisted grounders), no errors, replaced in 7th again, Mientkewicz, who few out to right in his one PA and recorded one putout (the series-ending comebacker to Foulke)
  • 2007, WS Game 3, 1-for-4, double, RBI (drove in Ellsbury), run (MVP Lowell drove in Pedey and Papi), 2 SO, 2 putouts (one assisted grounder, one unassisted grounder), replaced in 6th, Youk, 4 assisted putouts (2 in the 9th), 0-for-1 (grounded to third)
  • 2007, WS Game 4, 1-for-3, single, RBI (drove in Ellsbury in the 1st), walk (Coco pinch-ran for him in 8th), 5 putouts (4 assisted grounders and 1 unassisted popup), Youk took pitcher's spot in lineup and records 3 assisted putouts
  • 2013, WS Game 3, 1-for-2, 2 walks (1 intentional), played entire game at 1B, 6 putouts (4 assisted grounders, 1 assisted putout covering 2B tagging out Holiday after Ellsbury error on flyball, 1 assisted putout on dropped 3rd strike)
  • 2013, WS Game 4, 3-for-3 , 1 double, 1 walk, 2 runs, 8 putouts (all assisted groundballs), Berry pinch-ran for him in the 8th and Napoli finished, going 0-for 1 (struck out looking in the 9th), 4 putouts (3 assisted grounders and Koji's pickoff of Wong to end the game)
  • 2013, WS Game 5, 3-for-4, double, RBI (drove in Pedey in the 1st), 9 putouts (6 assisted groundouts, 2 unassisted grounders, 1 unassisted foul popup), replaced in double-switch with 2 down in 8th (Koji entered to pitch and Napoli entered at 1B, assisting on a groundout with Koji covering the bag, 1B-P)
While LF or RF can't be equated to 1B, Big Papi was not a liability in the field during his seven games at 1B in the World Series. In most cases, he eventually left for a defensive replacement, Mientkewicz in '04, Youk in '07, Napoli in '13. Given the hypersensitivity regarding having adequately good defense at 1B in late innings of the World Series, this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone here. I can STILL hear Scully's call on the Mookie Ball.

Offensively, taking the bat away from Benintendi or Bradley should not hurt much more than losing Youk or Napoli in '07 and '13 respectively, did. Papi got everything he was expected to get at 1B. JDM's range is not so bad that he's going to create multiple extra-base hits because he's a statue in the field. I don't see him diving to cut off throws to the cutoff man, either.

Ultimately, it comes down to whether JDM can do enough with the bat such that, in later innings, we can reasonably pull him for a defensive sub. As we've seen with Big Papi, in NL parks, pulling him out was not something that Tito or Farrell shied away from doing. Tito went to Mientkewicz and Youk much earlier than Farrell went for Napoli, for what that's worth.

If JDM's elbow is healthy and we can work him into LF at home or occasionally RF when Mookie needs an off day (either to DH or to catch a breather on the bench), I'm thinking we'll be fine come October. Ted had negative dWAR over the course of his career. We should be able to stomach JDM in LF. at home and in the smallest corner OF in other placed.

Plan B is we put a body out there and hope for the best. :)
 

Sprowl

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2004, WS Game 3, 1-for-4, single, 6 putouts (all assisted groudouts), 1 assist (threw out Suppan trying to score after recording putout at first), no errors, replaced in 7th, Mientkewicz recorded 4 putouts, 2 unassisted
Erasing Suppan was a memorable play. Big Papi reached the right decision quickly and made a crisp, accurate throw. But didn't he catch Suppan trying to make it back to third base?
 

SydneySox

A dash of cool to add the heat
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Sep 19, 2005
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Well, both are correct; he went home, then back to third, then home, then back to third, etc. Tagged at third in the end, though.

I still remember it as one of the most lucky plays we benefited from on that magic run.
 

drbretto

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Apr 10, 2009
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Not to take anything away from Papi, though. It was very lucky that Suppan was off the bases, but Papi's throw was actually pretty impressive given how little action he had seen at first, and that it was an improvised play in the World Series. It was a legitimately good, heads-up play by Papi. Pretty much a perfect throw.
 

drbretto

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Well, if we're gonna be talking about it, we've got the technology, so here it is for reference.


I realize no one had challenged my claim, I just wanted to see it again to make sure it's not just my Big Papi nostalgic glasses. You could have forgiven him if he didn't even try it. We've all seen that ball fly into the stands in that kind of situation. Especially those years. But he threw a perfect strike.
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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Well, if we're gonna be talking about it, we've got the technology, so here it is for reference.


I realize no one had challenged my claim, I just wanted to see it again to make sure it's not just my Big Papi nostalgic glasses. You could have forgiven him if he didn't even try it. We've all seen that ball fly into the stands in that kind of situation. Especially those years. But he threw a perfect strike.
It was interesting seeing Oquendo quit on the play after he realized Suppan blew the chance to score — and then Suppan for no apparent reason tries to go back towards home as Oquendo is walking back to the coaches’ box head down. Bad on all fronts.

EDIT: sidenote - the Gibson homer video coming up right after that clip was an enjoyable 7 minutes. What an at bat. I couldnt help but notice how many guys were in that clip that are dead now (Baylor, Hendu, Crews, Sharperson) — made me feel OLD.
 
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Average Reds

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It was interesting seeing Oquendo quit on the play after he realized Suppan blew the chance to score — and then Suppan for no apparent reason tries to go back towards home as Oquendo is walking back to the coaches’ box head down. Bad on all fronts.

EDIT: sidenote - the Gibson homer video coming up right after that clip was an enjoyable 7 minutes. What an at bat. I couldnt help but notice how many guys were in that clip that are dead now (Baylor, Hendu, Crews, Sharperson) — made me feel OLD.
I remember in real time being amazed that Oquendo just quit on the play like that.

I get that he was frustrated, but he’s a pro coach. Keep your head in it and help the runner.
 

uncannymanny

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All these years later and I still think “what in the hell was Suppan doing?” He looks like he’s trying to make a tackler miss halfway to home plate.
 

Al Zarilla

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That’s when you knew things were totally going our way. Second and third, no out, Sox have the infield back to stay out of the big inning. Ground ball to Bellhorn who is playing closer to the outfield grass than the infield grass. Throws out Larry Walker at first and Suppan, instead of jogging home is in no man’s land between third and home. Big Papi, no hesitation, throws over for the easy double play. Next day, Damon homers in the first and it’s over.
 

Old Fart Tree

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That was such a weird terrible play by Suppan. As in most high school ball players would not make that mistake. Baseball is a weird game.