Avery Bradley re-signs for 4 years/$32 million

[bowiac]

Most striking thing about the article about this is how conservative they are being in their estimates. They're not considering all the money between cap and tax apron, which can be used for S&Ts and Bird re-signs. Which means much more than 290M that can be spent. And then there are stretch-ers, which is an unknown source of even more money to spend.

I would take the under on $290M. I think he's overestimating how many mid level, mini mid level, and bi-annual exceptions are going to be used. Additionally, you have until the trading deadline to get over the salary floor. The 76ers aren't going to trade for bloated contracts now. They're going to do so near the deadline, when it's just going to act as money leaving the system, rather than going to other free agents.

 

[zenter]

I would take the under on $290M. I think he's overestimating how many mid level, mini mid level, and bi-annual exceptions are going to be used. Additionally, you have until the trading deadline to get over the salary floor. The 76ers aren't going to trade for bloated contracts now. They're going to do so near the deadline, when it's just going to act as money leaving the system, rather than going to other free agents.

 
Yeah, but he's talking about available money, not likely contracts. I'm saying there's a fair amount of unaccounted-for available money, which makes this even more interesting. FWIW, I also would take the under if only because you need room to play during the season and next season.

 

[dylanmarsh]

That FG% is brutal. Thabo's never scored more than 11 points per 36 cause he doesn't take as many garbage shots as Bradley does (which is obviously a function of teammates, yes). Bradley's not a scorer. He's a fine, maybe good three point shooter. He scored 14.9 per game by taking a ton of bad shots however.
 
I'd rather have the next 4 years of Thabo Sefalosha than Avery Bradley to be honest.

 
https://twitter.com/sam_amick/status/484780542873702400
 
He could've been had for fewer years and less money.

 

[Brickowski]

Sure, but Bradley is 7 years younger and Sefolosha's numbers trended very down last year.

Sefolosha's stats: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sefolth01.html

Bradley's stats: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01.html

Unless you think Bradley's performance last year was an anomaly, it's hard to argue that he's not considerably more valuable than Sefolosha. And with a 23 year-old player, the 4th year is a plus, not a minus. With an older player the extra year is much riskier. If what Alanta offered was so favorable, why didn't the Thunder want Sefolosha back for similar dollars?

If the decision were mine, I would have waited to see what kind of offer sheets materialized for Bradley. A big man would have been my top priority, not Bradley. But I don't think what Ainge paid was way out of line. And with the signing, Bradley becomes a trade chip immediately.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Preferring Sefolasha to Bradley makes sense if one is tanking, I suppose.   Not a defense of Bradley's deal so much as a reality check on some of the commentary here.

 

[bowiac]

Unless you think Bradley's performance last year was an anomaly, it's hard to argue that he's not considerably more valuable than Sefolosha. And with a 23 year-old player, the 4th year is a plus, not a minus. With an older player the extra year is much riskier. If what Alanta offered was so favorable, why didn't the Thunder want Sefolosha back for similar dollars?

Brick, what numbers are you talking about? These are players who's first job is to provide perimeter defense - what numbers are you dealing with there?
 
I think Sefolosha is the better player because he can actually defend his position well, unlike Avery Bradley. When I'm playing one of these defense-threes guys, the first thing I look for is to make sure they're actually providing the defense I want. Thabo's a SG with the length to defend SGs and SFs. Bradley is a SG with the length to defend PGs.
 
As far as the three point percentage, I do mostly think we should regress those numbers back towards career average. Thabo took 152 threes last year. I find his career sample of 931 to be much more instructive about his talent level than those 152.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

By what criteria are you determining Bradley can't defend his position?  Putting aside that in some configurations his position is PG and in others it is SG.
 
Thabo was horrendous late this year and in the playoffs; he wasn't a useful offensive player for anything other than open threes to begin with, so much slippage on those makes him a liability.   

 

[Brickowski]

Brick, what numbers are you talking about? These are players who's first job is to provide perimeter defense - what numbers are you dealing with there?

I'm looking at Bradley's per 36 numbers as compared to Sefolosha's. Let's start with 3pt percentage. Is it really fair to regress a 23 year-old player's numbers to the mean? Actually if you look at the stat's I posted, Bradley took zero threes his first year, and had one bad year (2012-13) when he was coming off shoulder surgery. I would argue that he projects as a guy who will shoot 40% plus from beyond the arc for the forseeable future.

Also, Bradley can defend two positions. Sefolosha can only defend one. Bradley also defends for 94 feet. Sefolosha doesn't.

 

[bowiac]

By what criteria are you determining Bradley can't defend his position?  Putting aside that in some configurations his position is PG and in others it is SG.

Both from watching the games, and from the fact that opposing team's shooting guards, when Bradley is guarding them, light it up. His opposing eFG% while defending the SG is awful.
 
This is also basically consistent with his reputation going to college, coming out of college, and in the NBA...

 

[Euclis20]

By what criteria are you determining Bradley can't defend his position?  Putting aside that in some configurations his position is PG and in others it is SG.
 
Thabo was horrendous late this year and in the playoffs; he wasn't a useful offensive player for anything other than open threes to begin with, so much slippage on those makes him a liability.   

 
Bradley is either a SG who has trouble defending his position (unsurprising for a guy who is 6'2 180), or he is a pg who can't bring the ball up or initiate the offense.  Those are his on-court weaknesses, and for him to start on a good team, he either needs to be paired with a big point guard who can defend 2's, or he has to be paired with another wing who can initiate the offense.  With that in mind, Smart could definitely be the former.
 
Three huge things to consider:
-Rondo.  I don't see how he is re-signed, unless Smart or Bradley is traded.
-Smart has to actually be a starting point guard for this to work.  Playing alongside 90% of the league's pgs, Bradley will be exposed, so for Bradley to succeed, they need Smart to succed.
-Bradley's health.  This is the only reason I don't like this deal, guy can't stay on the court.  Otherwise I really like him, and this signing.

 

[bowiac]

I'm looking at Bradley's per 36 numbers as compared to Sefolosha's. Let's start with 3pt percentage. Is it really fair to regress a 23 year-old player's numbers to the mean? Actually if you look at the stat's I posted, Bradley took zero threes his first year, and had one bad year (2012-13) when he was coming off shoulder surgery. I would argue that he projects as a guy who will shoot 40% plus from beyond the arc for the forseeable future.

The number of attempts just isn't very high for three point shots. If a 23 year old, with a career .270 batting average, is hitting .300 for the first two months of the season, I'd still bet on their batting average to regress back towards .270. Yes he's improving, but it doesn't take a lot of threes to skew the difference between Bradley's career averages and what he did last year. Three point shooting isn't exceptionally "robust" as far as basketball statistics go.
 
To be clear, this is all best guess. Maybe he's a 40% guy now. Just saying, gun to my head, I trust the data which tells me most guys go back to their recent averages (which for Bradley are his career averages).

 

[Brickowski]

To be clear, this is all best guess. Maybe he's a 40% guy now. Just saying, gun to my head, I trust the data which tells me most guys go back to their recent averages (which for Bradley are his career averages).

I think that's right unless there are extraneous factors (e.g. injuries) that skew the numbers in a particular year. That was true in Bradley's first year and his third year. I think you throw out the numbers in those years and average the numbers in the years he was relatively healthy.

As for Sefolosha, you would expect his offensive usage numbers to be lower than Bradley's (they were) but his efficiency should be higher playing on a team with two premier scorers like Durant and Westbrook, who will get a lot of attention from the defense. Bradley did not have that luxury, yet his efficiency numbers were higher than Sefolosha's.

 

[bowiac]

As for Sefolosha, you would expect his offensive usage numbers to be lower than Bradley's (they were) but his efficiency should be higher playing on a team with two premier scorers like Durant and Westbrook, who will get a lot of attention from the defense. Bradley did not have that luxury, yet his efficiency numbers were higher than Sefolosha's.

Sefolosha's efficiency numbers were better than Bradley's even this year (.517 TS% vs. .510% this year). Thabo's efficiency (on low usage) has been better than Bradley's every year of Bradley's career. I think this year's gap was mostly a fluke due to a poor shooting year from Thabo, although obviously Bradley's numbers are extremely dragged down by taking shots at the end of the shot clock.

 

[luckiestman]

Both from watching the games, and from the fact that opposing team's shooting guards, when Bradley is guarding them, light it up. His opposing eFG% while defending the SG is awful.
 
This is also basically consistent with his reputation going to college, coming out of college, and in the NBA...

 
 
Are these stats corrected for bradley guarding the point even when listed as the 2?

 

[Devizier]

I guess Bradley will make a decent pairing with Jeremy Lin in the backcourt.

 

[mcpickl]

 
Houston is already giving players away to make cap space because they think they have a real shot at a premier FA.  Now that they have declined Parons option, I believe the only way they can resign him is to use cap space unless its a sign and trade which again takes up cap space.  Instead they could sign and trade Parsons to us, take the exception and go use it after they sign their premier FA to get more talent or keep it until the deadline to again add more talent without sending out a player & salary in return.  It basically gives them a little more flexibility and options.
 
 

 
Parsons cap hold is only 1.7M. They have his Bird rights.
 
They can count him as 1.7M against the cap while chasing a free agent, use that cap space, then use Bird rights to go over the cap and re-sign Parsons for a much bigger number.
 
I believe they've already agreed to a deal, but won't announce it until they use that cap space. Certainly not trading him for an exception. If they didn't want him longterm, they could've just picked up his option and have him for less than a million this season.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Sefolosha's efficiency numbers were better than Bradley's even this year (.517 TS% vs. .510% this year). Thabo's efficiency (on low usage) has been better than Bradley's every year of Bradley's career. I think this year's gap was mostly a fluke due to a poor shooting year from Thabo, although obviously Bradley's numbers are extremely dragged down by taking shots at the end of the shot clock.

Thabo didn't have that poor of a shooting year by his standards. He's a very low volume shooter, who has been poor at shooting the three in 6 of his 7.5 seasons as a pro. It is more likely that the 2012-13 run of good 3pt shooting was a fluke and this year was a return to previous form. Considering his age, I don't think there is a strong reason to think he'll be significantly better going forward over the next 3 years than he was in 2013-14.
 
I don't know why we are comparing a 30 year old Sefolosha to Bradley anyway for our non-competitive team.
Through the same age or years in the league is a fun comparison.
Bradley destroys Sefolosha offensively. (ok destroys is strong. He's a much better 3pt shooter who turns the ball over less even though he has higher usage).
 
 
 

Through 4th season.

Name	TS%	eFG%	3pt%	FT%	AST%	TOV%	USG
Sefolosha	0.496	0.467	0.313	0.704	11	16	14
Bradley	0.501	0.478	0.366	0.777	10.1	12.1	20.5

 
 

Through Age 23

Name	TS%	eFG%	3pt%	FT%	AST%	TOV%	USG
Sefolosha	0.485	0.459	0.338	0.658	12.8	17.1	17.2
Bradley	0.501	0.478	0.366	0.777	10.1	12.1	20.5

 
Thoughts: The Bulls gave Sefolosha a two year run-out, decided he was a terrible offensive player and strictly limited his offensive involvement. His shooting improved, though one wonders if that is because he only took wide open shots and layups/dunks.

 

[bowiac]

I don't know why we are comparing a 30 year old Sefolosha to Bradley anyway for our non-competitive team.
Through the same age or years in the league is a fun comparison.

Fun, but pointless? 30 year Thabo exists. 23 year old Thabo does not... We're not debating HOF cases here, are we? I think current Thabo is a better player (and a better fit for the Celtics) than Bradley is, and is a good bet to continue to be over the life of their deals. That's why that comparison came up.
 
To be clear, I'd rather they sign neither of them. I don't think either is likely be a trade asset or a piece of the next contender (although Bradley is more likely to be, simply by being younger). I'd rather have kept the cap space, which is a trade asset all by itself, or chased a good player.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Fun, but pointless? 30 year Thabo exists. 23 year old Thabo does not... We're not debating HOF cases here, are we? I think current Thabo is a better player (and a better fit for the Celtics) than Bradley is, and is a good bet to continue to be over the life of their deals. That's why that comparison came up.

He's a terrible fit. He's a veteran who barely participates in the offense. Why would we want that on a rebuilding team? Gerald Wallace can do that. As for projections, the point was that Sefolosha improved after age 23, and after his 4th year in the league, Bradley could do the same, at 30+ Sefolosha is more likely to decline (and based on last year may well already have started).

 

[Brickowski]

Fun, but pointless? 30 year Thabo exists. 23 year old Thabo does not...

The 24-25-26-27 year-old Bradley doesn't exist either-- yet.

 

[bowiac]

The 24-25-26-27 year-old Bradley doesn't exist either-- yet.

Neither does 30-33 year old Thabo...
 

He's a terrible fit. He's a veteran who barely participates in the offense. Why would we want that on a rebuilding team? Gerald Wallace can do that. As for projections, the point was that Sefolosha improved after age 23, and after his 4th year in the league, Bradley could do the same, at 30+ Sefolosha is more likely to decline (and based on last year may well already have started).

I don't want him. I said I didn't want him. I just don't want any part of Avery Bradley either.
 
I agree players can improve - I guess I don't see the salience of Thabo to Bradley in that regard.

 

[Brickowski]

Neither does 30-33 year old Thabo...
 
I don't want him. I said I didn't want him. I just don't want any part of Avery Bradley either.
 
I agree players can improve - I guess I don't see the salience of Thabo to Bradley in that regard.

Because an improving Bradley at age 25 is a more valuable asset than a declining Sefolosha at age 32? Rebuilding is all about stockpiling assets, isn't it?

Of course, cap space is also an asset, so you have to balance the loss of the cap space against Bradley's basketball and trade value.

 

[Blacken]

Because an improving Bradley at age 25 is a more valuable asset than a declining Sefolosha at age 32? Rebuilding is all about stockpiling assets, isn't it?

Sure, unless you want something to complain about while ignoring that the team is just going to trade him eventually. Bradley is more valuable right now than cap space as an okay contributor (with upside) in a usable salary slot.

(You'll notice who's not complaining about this: anyone in the media with a clue. You'd think they'd make hay over such an apparently-obviously-stupid deal, it'd be easy pageviews.)

 

[bowiac]

Because an improving Bradley at age 25 is a more valuable asset than a declining Sefolosha at age 32? Rebuilding is all about stockpiling assets, isn't it?

Of course, cap space is also an asset, so you have to balance the loss of the cap space against Bradley's basketball and trade value.

Yeah - I basically suspect Bradley has no trade value right now. In three years, as an expiring deal, he might have trade value. But that cap space has trade value every year, which is what we've lost.

 

[Devizier]

(You'll notice who's not complaining about this: anyone in the media with a clue. You'd think they'd make hay over such an apparently-obviously-stupid deal, it'd be easy pageviews.)

A more likely explanation is the lack of fan interest in the Celtics, who currently suck and will likely suck for the foreseeable future.

 

[bowiac]

Sure, unless you want something to complain about while ignoring that the team is just going to trade him eventually. Bradley is more valuable right now than cap space as an okay contributor (with upside) in a usable salary slot.

I think Bradley is mostly flotsam (with upside!), so I don't agree he's more valuable at his cap number than cap space is. Furthermore, not every bad contract gets traded. Sometimes you have to hold onto even an okay contributor, simply because nobody wants him (Humphries).
 
Obviously it all depends on the market for Bradley. I don't think much of him, and the Celtics signed him before we got any indication of whether anyone else was interested in him. But it's possible other teams like him and will trade for him in a few years.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

It's also possible other teams were in in him this year---what we read is a very small % of what actually goes on trade/signing wise

 

[wutang112878]

Because an improving Bradley at age 25 is a more valuable asset than a declining Sefolosha at age 32? Rebuilding is all about stockpiling assets, isn't it?Of course, cap space is also an asset, so you have to balance the loss of the cap space against Bradley's basketball and trade value.

When you say Bradley is improving what is going to improve? Give me a specific stat that is measurable. The only real opportunity for improvement is 2pt FG% and by the looks of it last year the entire league is not scared of him driving to the hoop. Furthermore becoming better at shooting on drives is a skill you either have or don't. Bradley's very human hops and the fact that he looked so awful at it last year lead me to believe he is what he is in this aspect

 

[Sprowl]

A lot of posters seem to see no upside in Bradley as he turns 24. Here's what I see: he recovers his defensive intensity from 2012 before his shoulders failed him, and shows that he can shut down shooting guards too (think of his block on Wade in the lane); on offense, he maintains and builds on his improvement in mid-range shots off the dribble. The 19-foot jumper off the bounce was his calling card on offense coming into the league. That is the best-case scenario.
 
The most likely scenario IMO is that Bradley improves his offense, while being asked to do a little less end-of-clock creating. He'll never be good at driving to the hoop; the best he can accomplish are well-timed backdoor cuts. Recovering his defense strikes me as less likely than improving his mid-range game: I suspect that the shut-down defender was an artifact of being 21 years old with a narrow and well defined role, with the added benefit of having Garnett available to cover for Bradley's overplaying on the ball. If he does bring back the shutdown defender, the eye test will be a better judge than the stats that wutang seeks.
 
The worst-case scenario is a frail and perpetually injured Bradley who can't stay healthy long enough to get into his comfort zone on offense nor bring the intensity on defense.

 

[zenter]

Avery Bradley at 4/32 is most certainly not an asset. We all better get used to watching him because he ain't going anywhere.

 
In two years, the cap will be what, 75-80M? The apron would be at like 90ish? At worst, this is a very-moveable Courtney Lee type contract - a guy to make salaries work in some other deal. At best, he's the centerpiece of that deal.

 

[Blacken]

In two years, the cap will be what, 75-80M? The apron would be at like 90ish? At worst, this is a very-moveable Courtney Lee type contract - a guy to make salaries work in some other deal. At best, he's the centerpiece of that deal.

Exactly. The cap is going to just keep going up, and with it the ease of moving this deal. It's just a complete non-issue.

 

[Devizier]

I am mostly annoyed that Bradley makes 2x Tony Allen money when he is considerably less useful than Tony is. And I hated watching Tony dribble the ball off his foot.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I am mostly annoyed that Bradley makes 2x Tony Allen money when he is considerably less useful than Tony is. And I hated watching Tony dribble the ball off his foot.

Tony also can't shoot outside of 3 feet anymore. His range numbers are astounding. 65% inside 3 feet. 37% 3-10, 30% 10-16, 28% 16ft to 3, 23% from 3.

 

[luckiestman]

Im biased favorably toward Bradley and maybe it is clouding my judgement. I watched so many game last year where Bradley would not be on the court and the entire offense looked like no one wanted the ball. Bradley would check back in and just let it fly. He had some great games too and maybe they seemed even better than they were. 
 
I remember one game where he totally outplayed Kyrie ( I think he was all over him in 2 separate games but not sure). He was abusing him. I think one game he had Jameer Nelson on the verge of tears. Had a nice little war with Ty Lawson.
 
My concern is injuries. But If smart can handle the ball, Bradley and Smart in the back court... I can't wait to see the opposition repeatedly look at the zebras to bail them out

 

[Cellar-Door]

Courtney Lee was traded for an expiring, garbage Jerryd Bayless. His contract wasn't an asset much like there's a pretty good chance that Bradley's contract won't be an asset until the last year as an expiring.

I'm fine with the contention that the contract won't ultimately hurt the Celtics but I also don't ever expect much value to be reaped using it.

Umm. He said worst case scenario you can move it like Lee. Lee was moved, for a short term PG fix that cleared cap room. He wasn't saying Lee had much value, but that at worst it would never be any real hindrance.

 

[wutang112878]

A lot of posters seem to see no upside in Bradley as he turns 24. Here's what I see: he recovers his defensive intensity from 2012 before his shoulders failed him, and shows that he can shut down shooting guards too (think of his block on Wade in the lane); on offense, he maintains and builds on his improvement in mid-range shots off the dribble. The 19-foot jumper off the bounce was his calling card on offense coming into the league. That is the best-case scenario.
 
The most likely scenario IMO is that Bradley improves his offense, while being asked to do a little less end-of-clock creating. He'll never be good at driving to the hoop; the best he can accomplish are well-timed backdoor cuts. Recovering his defense strikes me as less likely than improving his mid-range game: I suspect that the shut-down defender was an artifact of being 21 years old with a narrow and well defined role, with the added benefit of having Garnett available to cover for Bradley's overplaying on the ball. If he does bring back the shutdown defender, the eye test will be a better judge than the stats that wutang seeks.
 
The worst-case scenario is a frail and perpetually injured Bradley who can't stay healthy long enough to get into his comfort zone on offense nor bring the intensity on defense.

 
 
Here are some relevant shooting numbers for Bradley.  Here are my concerns and why I think he is close to his ceiling:

• Bradley's % of FGs and FG% for non-3s and shots just inside the line is very bad.  The more this pattern becomes evident the more that Bradley is going to be looked at as purely 1 dimensional and teams will simply run him off the 16 to 24 ft range, and as a result the difficulty with these shots is going to increase which would logically lead to a decrease in efficiency
• There are 2 ways to look at his game inside of 15 feet.  One is that its so bad there is plenty of room for improvement.  Another is that its so bad perhaps its a skill that just cant be improved to the point that he would even be league average
• Then if we cross reference with his growth from his peak year in 2011/12, we see that
  He is taking less shots within 5 feet and becoming less efficient at them
• The efficiency for the pull-up that is developing has actually probably pretty close to peaking, he was ranked 23 in FG% from 15 to 19 ft and significantly above the average
• The great news for him is his work developing the 3 (20 to 24ft range) where he is taking more of them and becoming more efficient, but he probably his reached his ceiling here

Now defensively if he improves in guarding SGs why would we only see it in the eye test?  Why wouldnt it show up in the efficiency of SGs that he covers?
 
 
These stats are for 2013/14 and for 'guards' with 200+ shots, total population of 90 players
 
 

Player	L5 FG%	L5 %ofFG	F5to9 FG%	F5to9 %ofFG	F10to14 FG%	F10to14 %ofFG	F15to19 FG%	F15to19 %ofFG	F20to24 FG%	F20to24 %ofFG	F25to29 FG%	F25to29 %ofFG	Total FGA
Avery Bradley	54.30%	21.85%	25.60%	0.03%	29.40%	4.24%	44.60%	25.22%	40.80%	38.58%	50.00%	5.2%	801
LgAvg	56.7%	28.4%	38.3%	8.2%	40.3%	8.1%	41.3%	16.4%	39.2%	22.2%	35.1%	16.7%	60312
Bradley Rank	58	62	76	73	77	74	23	7	28	6	1	82
Bradley by Year
2013/2014	54.30%	21.85%	25.60%	0.03%	29.40%	4.24%	44.60%	25.22%	40.80%	38.58%	50.00%	5.2%	801
2012/2013	45.80%	32.49%	31.60%	0.07%	27.30%	4.61%	44.10%	21.38%	36.50%	35.64%	22.20%	1.9%	477
2011/2012	60.80%	44.33%	33.30%	0.12%	44.40%	3.19%	35.40%	23.05%	53.20%	21.99%	16.70%	2.1%	282

 
Field name explanation:
L5_FG% is FG% for shots less than 5 feet away
L5_%ofFG is % of total FGs for shots less than 5 feet away
F5to9_FG% is FG% for shots between 5 and 9 feet
F5to9_%ofFG is % of total FGs for shots between 5 and 9 ft
........

 

[Kliq]

The way I see, the Celtics are banking on Bradley significantly improving as a player, which is certainly possible given his age and his injury history (by that I mean that he hasn't been healthy at portions of his time in Boston). Right now, Bradley's skill set can be had at a significantly cheaper rate. But, in what the Celtics are really paying for is the fact that Bradley is younger then most guys with his skill sets and therefore can improve. With the increase in the cap, it isn't that bad of a move. Still, I think that if we get the Bradley of 2013-14 in 2017-18, it won't that great of a deal.

 

[Devizier]

The way I see, the Celtics are banking on Bradley significantly improving as a player, which is certainly possible given his age and his injury history (by that I mean that he hasn't been healthy at portions of his time in Boston). Right now, Bradley's skill set can be had at a significantly cheaper rate. But, in what the Celtics are really paying for is the fact that Bradley is younger then most guys with his skill sets and therefore can improve. With the increase in the cap, it isn't that bad of a move. Still, I think that if we get the Bradley of 2013-14 in 2017-18, it won't that great of a deal.

 
Exactly right. Given that Bradley is truly awful with the ball in his hands, his best bet is to become a three point specialist.

 

[jimv]

While we're discussing Bradley's future let's not forget last offseason was the first in his pro career that he was able workout without restriction (after being drafted he required foot surgery, then the lockout, then shoulder rehabs).
 
He seemed to make some progress offensively as a result (the numbers may be ambiguous, he was playing with poorer teammates though). Another good offseason of work as a 23 year old - he should be better next year.  How much better is the question.

 

[bowiac]

Out of curiosity, and I say this earnestly, as I'm not a student of NBA history, but who is Bradley's upside comp? In particular looking for someone of his size, which is my concern with his role defensively.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The biggest upside guy that comes immediately to mind is Joe Dumars---that's not  a prediction at all, just to make the point that 6-3 combo guards with strong defensive chops.can in fact be impact guys.   Dennis Johnson (slightly taller, and hops) comes to mind as well in the 'upside' way.
 
Just off top of my head.
 
Sidney Moncrief is another guy who has some similarities, though I don't think his skillset and physical tools really match especially well.

 

[Kliq]

I don't know why, but the first name that popped into my head was Hersey Hawkins. Undersized, but a good defender and an excellent shooter. Hawkins is probably a better offensive player than Bradley can be, but Bradley is probably a better defender then Hawkins was. I think if everything breaks right for the Celtics, Bradley is a starter on a contending team.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't know why, but the first name that popped into my head was Hersey Hawkins. Undersized, but a good defender and an excellent shooter. Hawkins is probably a better offensive player than Bradley can be, but Bradley is probably a better defender then Hawkins was. I think if everything breaks right for the Celtics, Bradley is a starter on a contending team.

 
If that's the bar (starter on conteder) George Hill is a pretty good match to Bradley without real projection.

 

[Devizier]

George Hill is probably Bradley's upside.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Both Dumars and Hawkins could really score and Avery Bradley is no DJ.
 
One contemporary upside comp that come to mind is Mookie Blaylock, although Blaylock was a more traditional PG. 
 
Best case scenario I guess would be Mo Cheeks or Norm Van Lier, although in both cases, Bradley would have to dramatically improve his handle and his ability to distribute the ball.  I guess one question is whether anyone has ever done that in NBA history?
 
(Certainly the Van Lier/Sloan backcourt has some similarities to Bradley/Smart from a defensive POV.)
 
Not necessarily an upside comp, but Eric Snow comes to mind as limited offense/defensive-minded PGs.
 
Also, where are people getting that Bradley has no hops?  His vertical is 37.5, which isn't Gerald Green-ish but is certainly better than most.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm going with Darrell Walker as a comparison, a great defender who could never shoot but who learned how to use his athleticism to pile up the assists and boards, here's a comparison of their age 23 seasons:
 
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=bradlav01&y1=2014&p2=walkeda01&y2=1985
 
Edit: Maybe Darrell Armstrong too?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Just to be clear on my own nominations, the question was about upside comps not likely ones.      There is absolutely no question that DJ and Dumars are best-case projections that I'd be shocked for Bradley to approach, ever.  
 
Guys like Hill seem like highly realistic ones---he's not that far from Hill today (better on-ball defense, not as good a ballhandler, similar 3pt shooting but weaker mid-range) and is still only 23.  He may never improve at all, but it's not hard to project him to be George Hill right now.
 
His skillset is funky for comps---some of the defense-first guys near his size are really true PGs (cheeks, snow, van lier) which just isn't Bradley's skillset.   Others his size who played off the ball a lot (vinnie johnson, lou williams for example) have totally different skillsets.
 
On hops, I don't think he lacks them...but I don't think he has DJ's either.  Young DJ likely could outjump Gerald Green.   Thus, for me, DJ's 6-4 was materially 'larger' than Bradley's size.  Anyway, that's why I noted it...agree Bradley can jump.

 

[jimv]

In his time DJ was considered a big guard and was a Finals MVP. Bradley is a smaller guard in today's NBA and his ceiling (I think) is considerably below that. I think poor man's Alvin Robertson might be a good (optimistic) comp

 

[Cellar-Door]

Bradley comps are tough.
He does 4 things well:
Catch and Shoot
Apply ball pressure
Not turn the ball over.
Shoot 3s.
 
Ball pressure is tough to measure in a box score, and catch and shoot numbers are only very recent which makes finding statistical comps hard to find.
Dumars and Byron Scott come close.
Steve Kerr maybe?
 
It's kind of amazing how few guys shoot the 3 well and don't turn it over. (I used season finder). Most aren't good comps becuase either they are better all around scorers off the dribble (Ray Allen), Or their size is all wrong (Kerry Kittles).

 

[Brickowski]

Because Bradley pressures the ball in the backcourt, he causes teams to be late getting into their half court offense. Even a couple of seconds delay matters when there's a 24 second clock. I'd like to see someone quantify that as a defensive stat.