Assorted Sox Rumors
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I was going to make that point as well. Whatever the Red Sox and Yankees bid they actually end up paying double that because of the 100% penalty for being so far over the limit last summer. Henry might be willing to write off the penalty when you're paying an extra $2 million combined for a few 17-year-old lottery tickets, but it's quite a bit different when you're paying an extra $30 million for one player. That means in order to win the bidding, they'd actually have to value him at twice what the next highest bidders do, or bid irrationally. I would hope that means someone other than Boston or New York gets this kid, it would mean that the competitive balance steps they took actually worked.Again2004 said:
This isn't really true. The 100 percent tax applies to all teams, not just the Sox and Yankees. The highest bonus pool is the Astros at around 5 million, so any team that signs Monacada will pay the tax and all teams will be valuing him the same way.Plympton91 said:
You would prefer to walk away from one of the premier young talents in the game because of money? Money they clearly have in abundance. Nope, I want this kid in our system and if they get him, I'll send JHH a thank you card for spending those millions.Plympton91 said:
Uh, yeah. That was dumb on my part. Some teams will not pay the 100 percent tax on the first couple hundred thousand to a couple million, because they are not yet over their allotment, but with the bidding at $30 million, everyone is paying 100 percent tax on the marginal dollars. In that case, I also take back my praise of the system. This kid is getting screwed in the same way the Japanese players subject to posting fees were getting screwed. Any team that values him at $50 million is only willing to pay about $25 million. Yeah, MLB.Bigpupp said:
Hard to feel too bad for him when he gets to avoid the draft, which limits young players' income far more.Plympton91 said:
Obvious, but I thought I'd share.
http://www.sfgate.com/sports/shea/article/John-Shea-Thoughts-on-Giants-search-for-a-6007175.php
http://www.sfgate.com/sports/shea/article/John-Shea-Thoughts-on-Giants-search-for-a-6007175.php
Yoan's a popping!
Yoan Lopez:
Yoan Moncada:
These two Yoan's are a big part of the reason why things are quiet on Yawkee Way. I think the Yankees have more desperation to sign both, but particularly Moncada. It will be interesting to see how the last few years of higher profits, and the Revenue Sharing award of 2014 impact the Sox bidding, if at all.
Yoan Lopez:
Yoan Moncada:
These two Yoan's are a big part of the reason why things are quiet on Yawkee Way. I think the Yankees have more desperation to sign both, but particularly Moncada. It will be interesting to see how the last few years of higher profits, and the Revenue Sharing award of 2014 impact the Sox bidding, if at all.
How will the bidding work for the Yoan's. Is it a process of continually upping your bid or just a one off offer?
Either way I just dont see the Yankees losing out.
Either way I just dont see the Yankees losing out.
Sounds like Lopez signed with Arizona:
According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the Diamondbacks have signed Cuban right-hander Yoan Lopez for $8.25 million.
Related: Diamondbacks
Source: Baseball AmericaJan 13 - 8:36 AM
According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the Diamondbacks have signed Cuban right-hander Yoan Lopez for $8.25 million.
Related: Diamondbacks
Source: Baseball AmericaJan 13 - 8:36 AM
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/01/12/daniel-nava-contemplating-switch-from-switch-hitting/
Nava is thinking about giving up switch hitting.
Nava is thinking about giving up switch hitting.
Exactly. There is no downside to giving it a try. If he sucks at lefty/lefty, he'll be in the same position as he is currently.Rasputin said:
Green Monster said:
This would depend, I think, on (1) who's on the 25-man at the time, and (2) whether Napoli goes on the DL or not. It seems unlikely both Nava and Craig wil start the year on the 25-man unless somebody's traded in the meantime.
Lopez is 21, Moncada is 19 and neither have 5 years of pro ball in Cuba, so no. They'd be subject to the same system next year. The rule for Cubans is that they need to be at least 23 and have 5 years of pro ball in Cuba to get out from under the IFA rules.
Gammons
And they especially don’t care for the cost of power. Then they should talk with their scouting directors and be told there might not be a legitimate first round power bat in college baseball in this June’s draft, then you won’t have to exclaim “the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are willing to pay whaaat for Yoan Moncada…”
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-the-mlb-power-crave/
And they especially don’t care for the cost of power. Then they should talk with their scouting directors and be told there might not be a legitimate first round power bat in college baseball in this June’s draft, then you won’t have to exclaim “the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are willing to pay whaaat for Yoan Moncada…”
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-the-mlb-power-crave/
ALiveH said:
You're missing that, because they're over the cap, they effectively have no cap. They've already incurred the highest penalty possible, and for the next two years will be looking at hard spending limits. So they've got no incentive to skimp now - quite the opposite. They've got every reason to spend until the window closes, because at this point it's just money.
Everyone is over the cap because the cap is less than 5 million. By the time he signs, all teams will end up paying this tax so waiting serves no purpose (except for taking teams like the Red Sox and Yankees out of the bidding).ALiveH said:
The only way what you are saying makes sense is if sitting out a year made it so the international bonus pool rules didn't apply to him. Why would you think that is true?ALiveH said:
I suppose if he played independent ball maybe that would be true, but that is pretty unlikely for lots of very obvious reasons.
Joshv02 said:
Apparently he thought the tax was specifically for Lopez and Moncada's contracts for some reason and not a tax for going over the limit in general. In other words, he doesn't know how the IFA system works and rather than look it up, assumed other people weren't understanding him.
“@JesseSanchezMLB: Sources: INF Yoan Moncada has held private workouts for several teams, including Padres, Giants, NYY & Red Sox http://js.mlblogs.com/2015/01/20/moncada-works-out-for-teams/ #Cuba”
Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs indicating this may move quickly ....
Now that OFAC has told Moncada’s agent and presumably representatives for the other concerned players that they will not be granting specific licenses to these players, the onus is now 100% on MLB. MLB could change their policy at any time to match OFAC’s policy and simply accept the general license as enough to unblock a player, which would immediately make all three players eligible to sign with MLB teams. This process also has been helped along by Hastings, whose close reading of the rules, lobbying efforts with MLB and OFAC and turning my attention to this matter have certainly sped up the process by weeks or months. It’s still anyone’s guess as to when these delays will end, but the week of statements and analysis now ends with everyone looking solely at MLB, waiting for them to change their policy and let these players sign.
From talking to international sources, my best estimate in that Moncada’s contract will be a signing bonus of around $40 million, which will also trigger penalties (paid to MLB) of about $40 million. The Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers are believed to be the heavy favorites to land Moncada, a 19 year old considered to be one of the most talented Cubans to come off the island in years. Despite the signing bonus, Moncada would likely go to the minor leagues for a season or two, so this situation is somewhat unprecedented.
For an idea of his talent, a common comparison is that Moncada is a switch-hitting Yasiel Puig that can play second base, third base or center field. For more on Moncada, including a more detailed scouting report and the intriguing rules surrounding his and Ibanez’s potential contracts, see these three articles.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ofac-clarifies-stance-mlb-is-only-hurdle-for-cubans/
I'd splash the pot on this one. Wouldn't blink about a 45 mill bonus that actually costs 90. You have to overpay a bit to outbid the Yankees and Dodgers ,,
Now that OFAC has told Moncada’s agent and presumably representatives for the other concerned players that they will not be granting specific licenses to these players, the onus is now 100% on MLB. MLB could change their policy at any time to match OFAC’s policy and simply accept the general license as enough to unblock a player, which would immediately make all three players eligible to sign with MLB teams. This process also has been helped along by Hastings, whose close reading of the rules, lobbying efforts with MLB and OFAC and turning my attention to this matter have certainly sped up the process by weeks or months. It’s still anyone’s guess as to when these delays will end, but the week of statements and analysis now ends with everyone looking solely at MLB, waiting for them to change their policy and let these players sign.
From talking to international sources, my best estimate in that Moncada’s contract will be a signing bonus of around $40 million, which will also trigger penalties (paid to MLB) of about $40 million. The Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers are believed to be the heavy favorites to land Moncada, a 19 year old considered to be one of the most talented Cubans to come off the island in years. Despite the signing bonus, Moncada would likely go to the minor leagues for a season or two, so this situation is somewhat unprecedented.
For an idea of his talent, a common comparison is that Moncada is a switch-hitting Yasiel Puig that can play second base, third base or center field. For more on Moncada, including a more detailed scouting report and the intriguing rules surrounding his and Ibanez’s potential contracts, see these three articles.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ofac-clarifies-stance-mlb-is-only-hurdle-for-cubans/
I'd splash the pot on this one. Wouldn't blink about a 45 mill bonus that actually costs 90. You have to overpay a bit to outbid the Yankees and Dodgers ,,
$90m for what? 6 yrs? Crazy talk. High ceiling but high risk. They won't go more than $60 total. Maybe $70.
Isn't the policy on international free agents part of the CBA? Can Manfred just make a unilateral change to the policy?
I could also see the commissioner's office using any excuse they can get to delay the signing in an attempt to keep the big spending teams out of the bidding and suppress the bonuses by default. I wonder if he'd rather get the extra $40M added to the coffers in the form of the penalty or get a smaller amount with a nod to preserving competitive balance.
I could also see the commissioner's office using any excuse they can get to delay the signing in an attempt to keep the big spending teams out of the bidding and suppress the bonuses by default. I wonder if he'd rather get the extra $40M added to the coffers in the form of the penalty or get a smaller amount with a nod to preserving competitive balance.
Yeah, I get it. And I understand that it wouldn't be $90 against the LT limit. But it's a sh!t ton to pay for a relatively unproven guy. Less proven than Dice-K who ended up being an overpay. You can do a lot with $15M per year (extend young guys, maybe Porcello, etc) The Sox have $$$ but it's not a bottomless bucket. I think they'll bow out long before the total acquisition cost gets near $90.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Minneapolis Millers said:
Same thoughts here.
Both NY and Boston barely pop up as a competitive blip on the Max/Lester radar this winter...just to turn around and risk/drop $90m on a 19 old prospect project who isn't even being deemed MLB ready? I understand the potentially heightened value of offense but the overall logic while putting everything together there just wouldn't hold up imo.
For $90m and in a world where you are going to take a conservative approach in some areas of filling out your MLB roster, you would almost have to be "i'd bet my reputation and career on it" type sold on the kid's future.
MikeM said:
One contract is 90M after international cap tax (but before luxury tax on the 45M) while the other is 210 million (granted a good part of the payout is deferred to as long as 14 years from today) before tax. For the Yankees, Scherzer's 210 million becomes 420 million after the competitive balance tax split over the next 7 years since the 30M AAV would pretty much make it impossible for them ever to get under the threshold. A 45 million dollar contract over 6 years represents an AAV of 9 million. This too could end up being doubled with the LT, but it does not preclude the opportunity to reset the luxury tax % would be possible.
Bottom line - I don't think a lack of competitive offers by the RS or Yankees on a 30 yr pitcher for a 7 yr deal has much predictive value on their potential bidding for a 19 yr-olds 6 year contract with a rumored value of 9 M AAV over 6 yrs.
If Moncada is indeed cleared to sign with major league teams before this year's signing period ends (June 30, I believe), then the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers, all of whom have blown past their international spending pools and will face penalties regardless, will be in on the bidding. I'd personally be shocked if one of those 3 teams don't sign Moncada, unless a crazy bid from out of nowhere blows them out of the water.
Clearly the international spending cap just doesn't work for Cuban stars, who command vastly more than 15-year-old prospects from, say, the DR. I wonder (1) if the cap can survive establishment of normal US-Cuban relations, which could bring about a separate agreement; and (2) whether the current cap can legally be applied to a Cuban who is actually in the US, as Cuban immigrants have a privileged status.
I think some kind of posting system would have to be worked out .. But that's along way off - even after the modest improvement in Cuban/US relationsderekson said:
