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Arizona Fall League Sox Players (a couple surprises)

Discussion in 'Minor League Forums' started by Lose Remerswaal, Aug 30, 2017.

  1. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Per Alex Speier the Sox are sending:

    Michael Chavis
    Bobby Poyner
    Ty Buttrey
    Chad de la Guerra
    Josh Tobias (from the Buchholz trade)
    Henry Owens
    Brian Johnson

    Owens and Johnson as vets is odd. Speier claims it's because both were injured and had low innings counts, but I wonder if this is more an effort to get them to make wholesale changes to their pitching approaches.

    Edit: OK, in the Globe story the reason was the low innings count. In the linked story it is to get them working on things.
     
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Good to see Chad de la Guerra going. It looks like he could actually develop into a major league player, even if it's just a small bench role.
     
  3. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    924
    Happy to see Poyner going, hope he can get a cup of coffee and show something in the pen next year.
     
  4. pantsparty

    pantsparty Member SoSH Member

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    Owens going makes sense, he switched to a new arm slot partway through this season. He needs as many innings as possible to try and get a handle on this new delivery and see if maybe he can be salvaged.
     
  5. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Then wouldn't Trey Ball make more sense than both?
     
  6. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Brian Johnson has turned down his AFL invitation, so the Sox won't get a chance to see him out of the bullpen until ST, assuming they even bring him back.
     
  7. crazybird1

    crazybird1 lurker

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    Did he give a reason? This seems like a good way to piss off your employer
     
  8. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's at the end of this article.

     
  9. crazybird1

    crazybird1 lurker

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    196
    Thank you. I thought he was injured which is why he was not recalled. It is kind of curios that they didn't recall him though.
     
  10. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

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    It's not really that curious. They usually don't recall everyone on the 40-man roster. As a starter, the expectation would be for him to continue a throwing program in case disaster strikes the starters for Boston.

    The only other players on the 40-man who were not recalled were Henry Owens and Ben Taylor.
     
  11. Drek717

    Drek717 Member SoSH Member

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    Given that Johnson returned pitching competitively just this past spring and a big part of his issue was pressure related I don't think anyone can fault the guy from 1. being a bit sore at not getting called up, 2. being content with the substantial progress he already made this season and 3. just wanting to get away from competitive baseball at this point to focus on his own shit for the winter.

    I can see why the Sox would offer the opportunity, but him choosing not to go might be more a sign of his own maturation in handling his career/mental work load than him reacting to not getting a September call up.
     
  12. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Good debut for Chavis. 2-4 with a 2B
     
  13. Detts

    Detts Member SoSH Member

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    Chavis is the shit. Grab on.
     
  14. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Chavis is raking thru the first 3 games. 6/13 with 2 doubles, 0bb/1k. Henry Owens stunk up the joint, 1ip, 2hits, 4er, 2k/5bb. 41 pitches, 18 strikes.

    Ty Buttrey 2.0, 1h, 1bb/2k.
     
  15. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    924
    And Bobby Poyner 2.0, 0h, 1bb/1k.

    Chad De La Guerra looking fine so far too, in all of 9ab.
     
  16. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Henry Owens. Ugh.

    Chavis is exciting. Maybe he can be next years Devers.
     
  17. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Chavis doesn't have nearly the same tools as a hitter that Devers does. That's not to say he can't be a good power hitter, and I realize you simply mean he could play most of his season in the high minors and join the major league team in the second half to provide a boost, but Devers was always expected to turn into something like he is today. Chavis's ceiling has always been something considerably short of that.

    I also don't know where they would play him. He's significantly worse than Devers was as a third baseman in the minors which means he'd likely be significantly worse at the major league level as well, considering the speed of the game and how much it's impacted Devers, especially on throws. He's too short to be an every day first baseman unless he develops or has developed superlative relevant defensive skills (stretching, scooping, jumps/reactions, etc). DH is currently manned by Hanley, though I suppose they could cut bait a la Panda mid season.

    Even then, I'm almost 100% certain his transition to the majors will be much rougher than Rafael's has been, so I don't think I want to see that during the stretch run of a contention year. I like Chavis quite a bit, but I think his value to the club is going to be mostly as a trade chip.
     
  18. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think you're wrong, and Chavis certainly wasn't going to sniff the ML roster last year. But, man, is it frustrating to watch him and Brentz put up league-leading HR totals in the minors - knowing that's where they're going to stay - when they could've been sorely used at the ML level.
     
  19. Detts

    Detts Member SoSH Member

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    2014 first round draft pick out of HS. No expectations there....
     
  20. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah, because that's the same thing as saying his expected ceiling falls short of what Devers has always had.

    Just to flesh out this response here are some scouting reports for both as they got started in pro ball.

    Devers was signed in 2013 and before he got inked by the Sox he was described like this:

    BA's top 10 for the Sox in 2014 (when he debuted as a pro) included this blurb:

    And when he cracked the Sox top 10 in 2015 his write up included:

    And...

    Contrast that with Chavis...

    Bleacher Report profile after the draft describing him as a potential above average third baseman with pop.

    A providence Journel piece described him like this:

    http://www.providencejournal.com/sp...ighlight-first-round-of-draft-for-red-sox.ece

    In an April 2014 chat, John Manuel downplayed a comparison to Addison Russell:

    And a pre-draft write up at BA had this to say:

    Chavis has always been a good prospect, but he's never been in the same class as Devers. And that's not a slight to Chavis.
     
    #20 Snodgrass'Muff, Oct 17, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2017
  21. mt8thsw9th

    mt8thsw9th anti-SoSHal SoSH Member

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    What does one have to do with the other? And Brentz was exactly where he was needed: as a decent bat in AAA. An .863 OPS at age 28 is hardly impressive, and is barely AAAA territory. There's exactly nobody on the MLB roster that couldn't put up similar numbers in the minors, so there was less than a zero chance that he'd have been an upgrade anywhere. Brentz doesn't have the plate approach needed to stick, or even help, at the MLB level.
     
  22. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    1,012
    So Chavis is probably a decent hitting, ok fielding LF? someone like Jay Bruce, if everything works out?
     
  23. SydneySox

    SydneySox A dash of cool to add the heat Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,380
  24. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    1) You misinterpreted what I was saying. I never said either player should have been in the majors. I was just saying it's frustrating to have such tantalizing power just out of reach (for different reasons) when our team leader hit 24 HR and we had a whopping four guys hit 20.
    2) But since you raised it... This is Brentz's best season in AAA, but he had "full" season OPSs there of .788 and .806 in 2013 and 2014, with a combined 29 HRs in 616 PA. His issue has really been health. Games played over the previous 4 seasons are 88, 72, 59, and 91. Maybe the toe tap has been the reason for his improvement this year or maybe he's back to full health, maybe a little of both. It's possible (maybe even probable) this is his high water mark, but he's still a useful piece at the 2013-2014 level. It's not like he's come out of nowhere at 28, though. He was a decent prospect until he couldn't stop getting hurt.
    3) I don't do MLEs; nor do I know of a quick and dirty calculator. But ZiPs projected a .696 OPS (which is right around his .690 OPS in his robust career sample of 90 PA) for Brentz at the ML level this year - before the best season of his career. Even if he were to hit only that, that's better than 10 of the 22 position players who had ABs for the Red Sox this year. By my count, there are 6 players on the 40-man plus Pablo Sandoval and Steve Selsky who actually had at least 25 ABs in AAA and couldn't manage an OPS within .100 of .863. And in those combined 1290 ABs they hit the same number of HR Brentz did in 2017.
    4) What about his approach disqualifies him from being useful at the ML level? He's no Mookie Betts in his approach, but some comparisons:
    2017 Bryce Brentz: 22.1 K%, 8.5% BB%, 0.39 BB/K, 1.19 GB/FB, 3.79 P/PA.
    AAA Bryce Brentz (roughly 3 seasons' worth): 24.2 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0.33 BB/K, 1.28 GB/FB, 3.77 P/PA.
    2017 Red Sox: 19.3 K%, 9.0 BB%, 0.47 BB/K, 1.32 GB/FB, 3.95 P/PA.
    2017 Jackie Bradley: 22.9 K%, 8.9 BB%, 0.39 BB/K, 1.50 GB/FB, 3.76 P/PA, 1.9 bref oWAR.

    I was not insinuating Brentz or Chavis should have been in the majors in 2017 with my original post. However, Bryce Brentz should have been a September call-up, and I hope he gets a real shot with the Red Sox in 2018 before he's cast off and is useful as a 4th or 5th OF for someone else for the league minimum.
     
  25. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    If Brentz isn't placed on the 40 man at the end of the WS or whatever the date is, he is a FA. They will not have him in 2018. He was also pretty miserable down the stretch, striking out in like 1/3 of his final 200 PA while his walk rate catered.
     
  26. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    683
    Right. I think he should have been placed on the 40-man in September at the expense of a fungible MR. The FO obviously disagreed with my expert (ha!) assessment, which is why I don't think he's going to be in the organization in 2018 either. I think that's a shame, because he's going to be a useful piece for somebody. And one in a mold that could fit nicely on a roster that could use a RH bench bat with pop for very little money. And an interesting tidbit I hadn't caught before is that he was taking reps at 1B for the last couple months of the season. I'd like to see him be the RH poor man's Jay Bruce on the 2018 roster.

    From your post a moon or two ago:
    He had an amazing stretch from 5/24-7/2 where he slashed .376/.458/.780, .389 BAbip with 19bb/24k, 11 doubles, 1 triple and 14 HRs in 154 PA. From that point on, he hit .258/.308/.488, .291 BAbip, 15bb/55k, 9 doubles, 13 HRs in 224 PA. He was still hitting for power (Can't expect him to ISO over .400 and .230 is pretty good) but was walking less than half the time while striking out 50% more often than his hot streak.

    That's a 24.6% K rate and a line that's closer to what he is than his hot streak. But it's certainly not Brock Holt/Josh Rutledge useless.
     
  27. mt8thsw9th

    mt8thsw9th anti-SoSHal SoSH Member

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    And? It was lower than everyone in the starting lineup, and higher than zero people on the roster that he'd replace (at LF, RF, or DH). Not sure the relevance of Sandoval, either, as Brentz has never played third base. You don't hamstring yourself by devoting a roster spot to a corner outfield that hits like a utility infielder.

    You keep saying you're not suggesting he be on the MLB roster, but it's inferred by anyone who reads what you typed.

     
  28. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    683
    Well, that's not what you said. The roster is in constant flux throughout the season due to both performance and injury. It's not just about those specific positions or season-long numbers. Guys needed breaks throughout the season. He could have been plugged in here and there (i.e. as the DH/LF with Young and let Benintendi have a few days off when he was struggling, play Nunez at SS for an extended period while Xander was obviously injured and have 5 OF on the roster, DFA Holt). And I'm sure our DH who just had shoulder surgery could have used a DL stint or 3. Moreland, Pedroia, and Nunez saw a handful of DH ABs; fair to say they could've used some more off days. Travis, Holt, Selsky, Davis, and Sandoval had more ABs than Brentz as the DH. If they were forced to give them ABs there, I'm sure they could've found a couple for someone who at least offered some hope of being useful there. He really was redundant to Young, so I agree there wasn't an obvious role for him. But the team struggled in the power department, and he could have been a slight boon there. Once rosters expanded, they could have found him some ABs at the expense of anybody who needed a break if they wanted. They obviously didn't, and once Davis was added the point was really moot (Davis was certainly a more useful piece on a playoff roster). I don't think he should have been called up during most of the season, but he offered more possibility for positive contribution in September than keeping all of the relievers they did. With a perceived opening for a backup OF in 2018, I would have liked to see him get an audition - especially since they either have to add him or lose him this offseason.

    Fair point on your bottom comment. My "they" was meant to infer the HRs could have been used, not necessarily the specific players.
     

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