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ALCS: Yankees v. Astros Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by Wingack, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Against all odds, the Yankees made it to the ALCS.

    I'd say the Yankees have no shot, except we have all just seen that they do.
     
  2. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    House money as far as I am concerned.

    My hope, beyond the team winning the ALCS, is to see Judge and Sanchez turn it around offensively. While I'm wishing for nice things, I'd like to have my faith in Betances restored too.
     
  3. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  4. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    HOU has announced they are starting with Keuchel and Verlander in games 1 and 2.

    NY can either go Gray/Severino or Tanaka/Severino to start, all will be on full rest. Tanaka has been horrendous both at home and on the road against HOU, who amazingly collectively have a .999 OPS against him. I'm not sure how to balance that and the last two fantastic games he's pitched, but I might lean towards going Gray/Severino to start.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/...sc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc
     
  5. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    Just crazy that the two leading CYA contenders in the AL had pretty horrendous postseasons. Sale pitched some ballsy innings but their overall lines were crummy.
     
  6. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Is it all that crazy though? I said it over in one of the game threads, but everyone always loves to say that good pitching beats good hitting...but the flip side is also true, good hitting beats good pitching.

    If anyone is going to hit guys like Sale and Kluber it is going to be teams like the Yankees and Astros.

    That being said, I am terrified of Dallas Keuchel. He kills the Yankees, I think I have seen the Yankees score total of three runs of him over his entire career.
     
  7. IHateDaveKerpen

    IHateDaveKerpen Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    3,594
    As an Astros fan, I'm much happier with this matchup.

    That said, EE is right - the Yankees should be playing very, very loose.

    Astros in six.
     
  8. Beomoose

    Beomoose Member SoSH Member

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    Can't believe I'm reduced to making "Houston is the team of Destiny" posts, but at least for the moment they look more like it than the MFY. Astros in 6
     
  9. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The Indians streak seemed to make people forget just how dominant the Astros were in the first half of the season. And now they have Verlander. I'm not at all surprised the MFYs beat Cleveland, but I'll be shocked if they beat Houston. Astros in 6 at most.
     
  10. rembrat

    rembrat Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter SoSH Member

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    It's in the bag. The Astros will see the pinstripes and turn into the Twins. Congrats on reaching the World Series.
     
  11. IHateDaveKerpen

    IHateDaveKerpen Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    ...so Astros in seven, then?
     
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Keuchel's dominance of NY (7 career starts, a 1.24 ERA) and HOU owning Tanaka (4 career starts, a 10.38 ERA, and the one from 2017 was even worse than that) make it hard to see a path for NY winning this series.

    The more I think about it, I think I'd start Tanaka in game 1 against Keuchel, which not only gets both of those out in the way in the same game, but also would maybe impact Tanaka's opting out after the season (harder to see him doing so if HOU shells him, 3/67 is a substantial deal to walk away from if you're not a clear ace).
     
  13. Papo The Snow Tiger

    Papo The Snow Tiger lurker

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    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
    #13 Papo The Snow Tiger, Oct 12, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  14. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    In the two Fenway games, Boston provided the blueprint for beating Houston. Get into the bullpen as soon as possible. Run up pitch counts. Easier said than done.
     
  15. drleather2001

    drleather2001 given himself a skunk spot SoSH Member

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    That's the blueprint for beating any team in a series.
     
  16. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I think I would do the same. It will be interesting to see how Girardi lines up the rotation. It has been awhile since Gray pitched, I am curious to see where he slots him in.

    Regarding Keuchel, I don't know if Holliday is going to be on the roster in the next series, but if he is perhaps he could provide a little better offense against him than either Ellsbury or Headley would out of the DH slot.
     
  17. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Left out part three: knock in some of those runners. Yanks can squander with the best of them. Feast or famine. Right now, NY's top power hitter cannot make contact.
     
  18. trekfan55

    trekfan55 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Sad to say, but the Yankees have a very good bullpen.

    Robertson, Khanle, Green, Chapman seems to have his stuff back. Only one that is a bit off is Betances.
     
  19. canderson

    canderson Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I had Houston beating Cleveland to get to the WS. I think NY beats Houston.
     
  20. hbk72777

    hbk72777 lurker

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    I ain't making a damn prediction on anything. Recent playoff baseball has turned Cy Young winners into dogshit and mediocre players into MVPs.

    I'm just gonna enjoy the ride
     
  21. trekfan55

    trekfan55 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    So wait, technical question: This is in the Yankee subforum, are we allowed to openly root or otherwise post against the Yankees, or should we have a separate thread for Non Yankee fans?
     
  22. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Feel free to do whatever you want. All the Yankee fans here are level-headed. I want to have a free flow discussion with Sox and Yankee fans about the series.
     
  23. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    A "bit off" is very kind. He was so out of whack in Game 4, he could have killed someone. Can't see him being used anywhere but mop up in this series.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Sure, you're allowed to root against the Yankees in the Yankee forum and the game threads all season long.
     
  25. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He only pitched to two batters in that game and was great in the previous ones, but as we discussed a few days ago, he's fifth or sixth option at best these days anyway.
     
  26. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I want some Betances playoff heroics so it can inflate his trade price in the offseason.
     
  27. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Tanaka gets the game 1 start, obviously a big one for the team but also for his potential free agent status.
     
  28. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Tanaka
    Severino
    Sabathia

    Then presumably Gray, but they only announced the first three so far.
     
  29. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I like Severino in 2 and 6, both on the road. He has a 2.24 ERA on the road this year. Following up Tanaka, he can also serve as a bit of a stopper if Tanaka gets hammered in his starts.
     
  30. VORP Speed

    VORP Speed Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    He says coyly, as if he does not fuel Yankee victories with the blood of foolish anti-Yankee rooters




    Yankees in 6. Houston melts under the bright lights. Yankees-Dodgers Series and we party like it's 1977.
     
  31. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Gray in game 4, which looks like 11 days rest (between 10/5 and 10/17).
     
  32. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I wonder if Joe will look to get Gray some work in Game 1.
     
  33. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I thought about that, but I don't think so, they have too many good relievers who are also in need of work. Warren also hasn't been in a game since the 5th, and Green since the 6th. Also only three days between game 1 and 4, so maybe Gray just gets an extra bullpen session or something.
     
  34. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Gray is throwing a 3 inning sim today, per Joe.
     
  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    So who is the DH against Keuchel? Ellsbury and Headley are doing nothing, probably Holliday has to be in there if he is on the roster (or he should not be on the roster), or the quick young rusty bat of Clint Frazier. Remember in July when Clint did this?

     
  36. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Tanaka has been terrible on the road this year and didn’t make it out of the 2nd inning in his only start vs Houston.
     
  37. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    He's had an inconsistent year in general and historically hasn't had insane splits. He looks pretty damn good lately. Some risk? Sure. Not that much though.

    Jon - I totally would replace Holliday with Frazier on the roster. Holliday either isn't healthy or Joe trusts him less than Headley or Ells which is even worse.
     
  38. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Well, whether it is either Holliday or Frazier that person needs to DH against Keuchel.
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Look up the highlights if you want to be entertained, 4 HRs and 8 ERs in 1 2/3, and that one was even at home.
     
  40. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Miguel Andujar might even be the best option but we will never know.
     
  41. j-man

    j-man Member

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    Astros in 7 they hit well in yankee stadium if the Yankees win it will be 7 games houston will score a lot judge has to play like his 50 hr seif to have a shot that said with 80 or 90 mil $ to spend if we want i wouild call the giants for bumgander or that japan pitcher that can hit too and make a run at harper or stauberg 1 more big bat for the yankees wouild put the AL East on lock for 3 to 5 years

    that said does jeter deal staton to boston i think the yankees need to get in that trade talk to just drive up the price the yankees are back
     
  42. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    It will be an interesting offseason for sure but regardless of the Yankees postseason efforts so far and what may come, I don't think there will be any big moves this offseason. Cashman will be trying to stay under the luxury tax and there are no immediate needs outside of a starter. I'd love for him to figure out how to get Ellsbury and Headley off the roster, but that will happen naturally when the kids start coming up.

    The most shocking part of this team that is still hard to grasp is that we aren't currently flaunting any of our top prospects outside of Sanchez. The players who are excelling were not the guys who were on anyone's radar the way Frazier, Torres, Sheffield, Andujar, Florial are. I mean, when everyone said this team wasn't ready it was because the top prospects are still on their way.
     
  43. luckysox

    luckysox Eeyore Bronze Supporter SoSH Member

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    Houston is not going to melt. That crowd at home absolutely stokes their fires. Every one of them is running on crazy adrenaline for seemingly every at bat. The lineup is relentless. The Yanks also have a relentless lineup, but I'd take Houston's over a 7 game series and I take their pitching, too. Hinch made the Verlander decision the other day, which I hated, so he could over think himself and cost them, but his offense will likely bail him out if he brain farts, and can bail the pitching out our it goes sideways. It may well go 7 and the Yankees may win, but it won't be because Houston melts under the lights. I'd like to add here that I keep trying to hate this year's yankees team, and it is harder than usual. I do hate Sanchez, legit. But Judge is tough to hate. I still hate Gardner, am ambivalent about Ells, Headly, CC, Tanaka etc. I hate Chapman with burning fire, but that was pre-Yankee, too. It's more fun to hate him in pinstripes. I like Frazier. I dunno, I sure don't want them to win, but with these personalities and 3 WS titles of our own in the last 13 years, the angst associated with their success is less intense.

    Houston in 5, btw.
     
  44. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Houston is clearly the superior team and the idea of them melting under the lights of New York is ridiculous. They have a ton of veterans, plus the best second baseman in the land and maybe the best shortstop. Then again, their bullpen isn't all that great. If Houston's starting pitching holds up, the Astros will cruise in five or six. If the Yankees can get into the bullpen then I think they have a real shot.
     
  45. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Has anyone mentioned the McCann factor? He has to have a better idea than most how to get to many of the current Yankee pitchers, and maybe how to attack some of the current Yankee hitters also. Opposing teams in the playoffs are scouted so heavily that maybe this doesn't matter much, or at all, but worth mentioning briefly at least.
     
  46. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I vote for Frazier. If you are going to be the baby bombers, go all in.
     
  47. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Agreed, but NY is keeping the roster the same for the ALCS, which means no Frazier or Tyler Wade (pinch-runner).
     
  48. Papo The Snow Tiger

    Papo The Snow Tiger lurker

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    I apologize if this was discussed at length elsewhere, but are there any metrics covering a starting pitcher coming into the game as a reliever? Even though there have been some spectacular successes, like Pedro in the 1999 ALDS Game 5 vs Cleveland or Madison Bumgarner a couple of years ago in the World Series against the Royals, it seems to me more often than not it doesn't work out. Max Scherzer last night is a prime example. Even though he pitched well for a while Sale got the loss last week, and Verlander came in relief and gave up a go ahead homerun to 10D in his first inning of work and was in line for the loss if things had worked out better for the Sox. Even in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS Pedro came, got hit a little and gave the Yankees some hope. Based upon nothing but my own bias unless there are extenuating circumstances, i.e. the top relievers are already out of the game, a total early inning meltdown by the starter, etc., it would seem to me it would be better to leave the relieving to the relievers.
     
  49. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Mike Mussina was brilliant in a certain Game 7, but for the most part I don't think it works that well unless it is for long relief. Especially in today's game with stacked bullpens.
     
  50. trekfan55

    trekfan55 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Sabathia and Tanaka maybe. Did he catch Chapman?

    He never caught Severino (I think) or Gray. Nor did he catch any of the new bullpen arms.
     

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