So JM3, which guy currently in Portland do you think will be the first to make it to Boston?
So I gave this a brief answer yesterday, & it was a bit of a copout because I chose Luis Guerrero when I assume it was really a question about our biggest prospects like Mayer/Yorke/Roman/Teel.
But let's break it down. We'll go off the last SoxProspects rankings & their last ETAs. They have a rankings update coming I think, but that's ok. I don't think I'm going to do another rankings update until after the season. I'll put my rankings in parens.
#1 Marcelo Mayer (#1) - ETA Late '24. I think that's a fair ETA. He didn't struggle nearly as much as it looked like he was due to bad BABIP luck as he was making good contact...until he started striking out almost every AB before going on the IL with the shoulder issue. He has proven to be a very fluid defender who is likely to stick at SS, & I am still very optimistic...but the injury does set him back some & I think takes starting next season with the Red Sox out of play. He might start the season at Worcester, though, & be a hot streak or an injury away from the lineup. Hopefully he gets back in time to have a few meaningful PAs this season. But yeah, a call up late enough in '24 to get some MLB run, but maintain rookie eligibility for '25 seems like the most likely option to me at this point.
#2 Roman Anthony (#2) - ETA Late '25. I think this now seems like a fairly cautious ETA...even though he will only have turned 21 a couple months earlier. Of course a ton depends on how well he settles in at the new level, & he is certain to start next year in Portland & perhaps be there all year unless he continues to OPS 1+. But at this point, opening day 2025, before his 21st birthday, doesn't seem to be off the table, which is kind of crazy. Still a lot of proof of concept & reduction of the strikeout rate that needs to be done, but at this point, he seems to be catching up to Mayer.
#5 Kyle Teel (#3) - Mid '25. This is also starting to feel pessimistic, but I'm guessing they will update at their next update. Also, while he may be actually ready mid '25, there is very little reason to actually have him debut then with the new rules regarding ROY, so start of '25 would make more sense if you expect him in '25. But I see him as being on a similar path as Mayer with the late '24, but maintain his rookie eligibility for '25 path. He's older than Mayer & Roman, & will be 23 at the start of the '25 season, but catchers usually develop later, so that's still an accelerated timeline (not like Nolan Schanuel accelerated, but yeah).
#6 Nick Yorke (#10) - Late '24. I think he may be the actual answer to what I believe was the intended question. He is currently healthy & raking in AA, while playing very solid & mistake free defense. If Mayer or Bonaci get back soon, I could easily see him getting promoted to Worcester for the end of the season & being ready early in the season if someone goes down, or possibly even their opening day 2B (not likely, but not impossible). Yorke turns 22 right after the start of next season. I also don't think he's as big of a building block for the future like the other guys, or a contender for ROY in the same way, so I think there's a decent chance we see him in the 1st half of '24 here & there, whereas I don't think they take that path for a Mayer.
#8 Wikelman Gonzalez (#8) - Mid '25. Wikelman is an interesting one. He started the season slow, but has been great at both Greenville & Portland since. He still has work to do to get better, but he is exhibiting much better control of his pitches & an ability to get deeper into games which is really encouraging. If he keeps on this trajectory, I think he should be ready to help the Red Sox by opening day '25, & could be an interesting bullpen arm during a '24 playoff push. How he develops & whether he starts projecting more as a starter or a reliever will probably depend on how aggressively they might choose to use him next season, if at all. Gonzalez is still young, & doesn't turn 22 until late March. Unlike the first 4 guys, though, he will be on the 40-man roster, so the path to the team is a bit cleaner.
#12 Brainer Bonaci (#12) - Late '25. Bonaci is further away than all of the guys above him, & the least assured of ever actually making it. I think he does, but I think he probably needs a full season at Portland next year, & probably a season at Worcester before being ready, so late '25 seems reasonable. The problem is, he would need to be on the 40 man this off season, so he may be a reasonable trade candidate if another team values him as both Mayer & Yorke are coming, & probably will be ready before him. Bonaci turned 21 in July. I like him as a prospect & he may even have a higher upside than Yorke, but I'm not sure he actually makes sense with the Red Sox timeline unless they are trading Yorke for really good value as Yorke is currently more polished & does not need to be on the 40.
#16 Chase Meidroth (#23) - Mid '25. I'm probably just not really a Meidroth guy, & definitely not compared to the SoxProspects people. I think he's fine, & he has a nice hit tool, but despite several highlight plays over the last few weeks, I don't think he's ever going to be a plus defensive player, & he's definitely found tougher going in AA after raking at the lower levels. Meidroth recently turned 22 & I don't think he has the defensive consistency or slugging of Yorke, nor the range, arm strength & speed of Bonaci. He's fine, but I don't really see a clear path for him here. Maybe if they move Yorke, but I don't think he's someone they can count on as a potential every day Major Leaguer unless he takes some leaps in the off season.
#18 Nathan Hickey (#24) - 2025. Hickey is interesting because out of all the guys who have been at Portland, his bat is the most Major League ready. He has the highest OPS on the team & has plus power. But he really doesn't have a position that he could currently play for the Red Sox. He's not a good defensive catcher & I don't think is athletic enough to be very good defensively elsewhere. Like Stephen Scott, if he hit righty you could see a path to playing time where he got some run at 1B when Casas was taking a day off or DHing, but it's a really narrow lane right now for LHB positionless players when the Red Sox have too many guys who should be DH 1st already. Hickey turns 24 this off-season, & definitely could be on a Major League team soon-ish. But I don't really see the fit, especially with Teel about to blow by him.
#19 Blaze Jordan (#15) - Mid '25. Blaze is realistically a ways out, but as a RHH 1st/3rd guy with some pop, he has the potential to be able to find a role with the Red Sox, especially if he can tighten up his 3B defense. He also needs to keep improving his hitting, especially against fastballs, but he doesn't turn 21 until December, & even though he hasn't been destroying pitching in Portland, he is still getting a lot of timely hits & RBI (lol RBI, but yeah). He only has an 80 wRC+ in Portland, but that comes with a paltry .242 BABIP. He's only striking out 15.6% of the time, & I think he'll see a nice jump to his Portland stats next season. That being said, I don't see him as remotely an answer to this question & mid-'25 may be a big optimistic, but I could certainly see a role him for on the Red Sox in the future.
#31 Luis Guerrero (#17) - N/A. SoxProspects only has the ETA on their top 30 guys. I can understand why they are lower than Guerrero than I am. He is a relief only prospect who is 23 & in AA. He also struggled early in the season, walking about as many people as he struck out (but still maintaining an ERA under 2 during that time period). Since then he has been lights out. He sits 96-98, tops out at 100, & has a split-finger & a slider that he mixes in. In his last 10 games, he has pitched 13 innings & allowed 2 runs on 5 hits & 2 walks, with 19 strikeouts. I could see him opening the season in the bullpen easier than I could see anyone else at Portland starting the season with the Red Sox, so he was my pick. We shall see if they see it that way or not. & I'm sure a lot will depend on the health of the other guys they have. Like if they have several guys on the 60-day IL, it might happen, but if they have a healthy staff or several guys on the 15, it probably wouldn't.
#32 Hunter Dobbins (#19) - N/A. He's probably the most major league ready starting pitcher currently at Portland. Wikelman has a much higher upside, will be on the 40, & has the stuff that will play better as a reliever, so I would expect him to make it before Dobbins, but if one of them had to start for the Red Sox tomorrow, I'd choose Dobbins. He's ran into trouble in the 1st inning a lot, but then has shut down opponents for the rest of the game & overall has pitched quite well. He recently turned 24. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get some run late next year, but probably more likely a possible swing man role in '25 if he keeps progressing.
#33 Alex Hoppe (#67) - N/A. Hoppe has been fine, & his 5.73 ERA hides his 3.11 xFIP in Portland, but I don't think he's as polished or has the stuff Guerrero does. The xFIP # seems less predictive than usual, though, because he has a .222 BABIP at Portland (after a .420 BABIP in Greenville), so it seems likely he's running good in some ways & bad in others. He turns 25 in December, so is pretty ready age-wise, but I think he needs at least another season in the minors to sort everything out. Could end up being a useful reliever in '25, though. & I probably have him ranked a bit low.
#34 Angel Bastardo (#27) - N/A. On the flip side, I might be a bit high on Bastardo. He's basically a one-pitch pitcher with 2 meh secondaries, with a lot of stamina, so he doesn't seem likely to be a major league starter, but his stuff doesn't necessarily seem to be indicative of shut down reliever at this point. SoxProspects lists him as 22, but based on his birthday, both there & other places, it seems like he turned 21 in June. So he's still young, with upside & is already at Portland (recently promoted). His 2 starts there have been up-and-down, & he's Rule 5 Eligible this year. I don't think it's likely they protect him, but it's possible someone could take him. Hopefully they can flip him for someone lower level flyers or as part of a bigger deal if another team really likes him, or if they don't, hopefully he just doesn't get drafted. I think he's still a couple years from being able to contribute to a Major League team, & he's not really the type of guy you would want sitting on your 40 for those 2 years.
I think that's enough for now (although I'm tempted to get into Isaac Coffey (SP #48/my #25), Chris Troye (39/42), & Corey Rosier (56/39).
So cliff's...
Guerrero is my guess for 1st pitcher from Portland to the Red Sox, & Yorke is my guess for 1st hitter.
