They are such different players this sort of just seems like Payton is talking out of his ass.
2024 NFL Draft 1st round gamethread: Maye the odds be ever in your favor WITH SPOILERS
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
Aiyuk just turned 26 and is arguably in his prime and should be for 4 more years with another 2-3 productive after. He would probably be a top 12 WR if he didn't have the target competition he does from Deebo, Kittle, CMC. He is an elite route runner and separator and his per reception stats are outstanding. Any WR you pick at 34 has at best a 20% chance of becoming Aiyuk and that is probably very generous. If NE plans on competing in the next 3+yrs they will need at minimum a couple Aiyuks. If I can guarantee one for 34 and say a 5th I'd jump all over that and sign Aiyuk to a 4-5yr market contract tomorrow in the Amon-Ra range which this team can easily afford.
NE will need at minimum two Aiyuk’s to compete in the next 3+ years? Like there’s a chance they might need three?
I think you need 2-3 elite offensive weapons to compete in today's NFL. That can be a combination of WR/TE/RB but right now NE doesn't have an "elite" offensive weapon on the roster. They have a bunch of 2/3rd tier options but don't have anyone that would start for SF, PHI, KC, DET, BAL, HOU, JAX, GB, DAL, CIN, SEA, CLE and I'm sure I'm missing some. SF already has 3+ Aiyuks when you add in Deebo, Kittle and CMC all who would instantly be the best offensive player in NE by a significant amount.
For tomorrow we need WR (giant hole at X), LT, and if we have extra picks a TE would be nice.
Sanders reminds me (and many who watched him) of Njoku. It wouldn't surprise me to see them go after him especially if they have an additional pick. That being said it's probably WR and OT on day 2.
Who best fits the bill?
Offensive Tackle:
The only tackle on consensus boards around pick 34 is Suamataia (42nd on Arif's).
Suamataia is the Drake Maye (sort of) of tackles. He has so much to work on technique wise. People are all over the place on him. I am lower on him than consensus. He is though a relatively high ceiling guy with the requisite size and athleticism and length to play LT. He is young too. He can play LT or RT. Sua isn't starting year 1 most likely. If they want to bet on a young athletic guy and "traits" then take him at 34. They brought Sua in for a top 30 visit. I think Sua fits the Packer way.
Most of the other OTs they would be interested in as potential starters are probably there at 68 or close to it: Patrick Paul, Kiran Amegadjie, Blake Fisher, Brandon Coleman, and Roger Rosengarten. They might have to trade up for Paul.
Wide Receiver:
They have already talked to Troy Franklin (top 30). He is also a candidate for the pick at 34. Javon Baker is a nice fit too but he is probably available at 68 or even day 3. They also brought Baker in for a top 30. It seems like they want someone able to win on the outside.
AD Mitchell isn't really a culture fit. It's trendy to pare a college WR with his QB but Walker is more of a round 3-4 guy. I love Johnny Wilson but he isn't for everyone and his worst trait is reaching for balls behind him which is a Drake Maye special!
Keon Coleman is one of my favorites but is he a good pairing with Drake Maye? To me he is more of Tee Higgins replacement for Joe Burrow. It could work but it is a risk!
If I had to guess I think they go Suamataia and Baker.
I would go Franklin at 34, Paul at 68, and Baker in round 4 if he is there. That would be a ridiculously good draft.
(I debated saying Coleman there - I might go Coleman vs Franklin).
Sanders reminds me (and many who watched him) of Njoku. It wouldn't surprise me to see them go after him especially if they have an additional pick. That being said it's probably WR and OT on day 2.
Who best fits the bill?
Offensive Tackle:
The only tackle on consensus boards around pick 34 is Suamataia (42nd on Arif's).
Suamataia is the Drake Maye (sort of) of tackles. He has so much to work on technique wise. People are all over the place on him. I am lower on him than consensus. He is though a relatively high ceiling guy with the requisite size and athleticism and length to play LT. He is young too. He can play LT or RT. Sua isn't starting year 1 most likely. If they want to bet on a young athletic guy and "traits" then take him at 34. They brought Sua in for a top 30 visit. I think Sua fits the Packer way.
Most of the other OTs they would be interested in as potential starters are probably there at 68 or close to it: Patrick Paul, Kiran Amegadjie, Blake Fisher, Brandon Coleman, and Roger Rosengarten. They might have to trade up for Paul.
Wide Receiver:
They have already talked to Troy Franklin (top 30). He is also a candidate for the pick at 34. Javon Baker is a nice fit too but he is probably available at 68 or even day 3. They also brought Baker in for a top 30. It seems like they want someone able to win on the outside.
AD Mitchell isn't really a culture fit. It's trendy to pare a college WR with his QB but Walker is more of a round 3-4 guy. I love Johnny Wilson but he isn't for everyone and his worst trait is reaching for balls behind him which is a Drake Maye special!
Keon Coleman is one of my favorites but is he a good pairing with Drake Maye? To me he is more of Tee Higgins replacement for Joe Burrow. It could work but it is a risk!
If I had to guess I think they go Suamataia and Baker.
I would go Franklin at 34, Paul at 68, and Baker in round 4 if he is there. That would be a ridiculously good draft.
(I debated saying Coleman there - I might go Coleman vs Franklin).
From reading various scouting reports, I'd go with McConkey at 34 or Sua. With any luck Sua's a starting LT next season and the Pats can concentrate their efforts elsewhere on that front. Neither Franklin nor Coleman seem to fit Wolf's WR preference, and Mitchell has other concerns. (If they take WR, team is still going to need a WR1 next year short of a trade.) I'd lean OT but WR is fine too.
Just not a freakin CB please.
Just not a freakin CB please.
Love Deebo as a football player, don't like the fit for this offense. Would much rather have Aiyuk.
It's going to be a real bummer when Aiyuk ends up in KC and they get even better. Already feeling like last year was their gap year when they were vulnerable, and they'll be better in 2024. Three-peat would be extremely annoying.
Yeah three years ago I thought Deebo was clearly the better player. But with his injuries and usage since then, and Aiyuk’s improvement, I would deal him and not Aiyuk if I were John Lynch.
We should be past worrying about them. By the time we're ready to compete for championships with Maye under center, Kelce--and possibly Reid--will be retired.
Absolutely agree.
I know it's emotional but everytime I read Coleman is a great "contested catch guy" I get flashbacks of Harry making unbelievable plays in college but couldn't even get open. Coleman's 40 time is slightly worse and I know people say he plays better but I'm having PTSD.
Same here. It's probably unfair and I'll be the first to admit I've been so laser focused on the QBs that I haven't paid all that much attention to receivers this year, but the profile scares me half to death. @SMU_Sox seems to like him, though, so I'll defer to his judgement.
Interesting the Chiefs moved up Worthy - the fastest player in the draft. They signed Brown, who was the fastest player in the 2019 draft. Reid prizes speed on the outside - and he is pretty fricken smart....
I kind of got the sense BB wasn't as sold on Harrison as everyone else was.
I really don't want to see the Chiefs become the first team to win 3 in a row.
I kind of got the sense BB wasn't as sold on Harrison as everyone else was.
I really don't want to see the Chiefs become the first team to win 3 in a row.
For me
First choice is trade for Aiyuk — #34 and a 2025 4th for Aiyuk and a 2024 6th. But I don’t think SF let’s him go
Next choice is trade down ~5-6 picks for a WR, and then use the capital gained+ to trade up from the3rd to late second to get Paul.
Edit: About the concerns about how expensive Aiyuk is, the Pats cap is plenty fat, and teams should have room for a costly WR in their budget, especially when working a rookie QB deal. Adding Aiyuk doesn’t rule out a fat Barmore extension by any means
Im Calling the extension “fat”, not Barmore.
First choice is trade for Aiyuk — #34 and a 2025 4th for Aiyuk and a 2024 6th. But I don’t think SF let’s him go
Next choice is trade down ~5-6 picks for a WR, and then use the capital gained+ to trade up from the3rd to late second to get Paul.
Edit: About the concerns about how expensive Aiyuk is, the Pats cap is plenty fat, and teams should have room for a costly WR in their budget, especially when working a rookie QB deal. Adding Aiyuk doesn’t rule out a fat Barmore extension by any means
Im Calling the extension “fat”, not Barmore.
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I don't know if the Chiefs will win it all again, but Mahomes is now front-runner for MVP. To give him Worthy is just unfair.
Of all the developments last night, I think this was one of the most significant. Worthy will absolutely light it up with Mahomes, and it will probably extend Kelce’s run of dominance, and might very well allow them to threepeat (ugh), AND it might be devastating to one of their main rivals, Buffalo, who gave them the chance to take Worthy in the first place.
Just unfriggingbelievable.
Just unfriggingbelievable.
Doesn’t look good for OT. Really wish they had just signed one, overpay or not.
I think they will get (or at least have the opportunity to get) a good WR at 34. Either another one in the 3rd or pick an OT project there.
I think they will get (or at least have the opportunity to get) a good WR at 34. Either another one in the 3rd or pick an OT project there.
Maybe I’m overly sensitive to this as a Jewish guy, but while I’m not speaking to anyone’s motivations, referring to a young African-American male as a “thug” based on his appearance sounds exactly like the same coded bigotry to me that people use with Jews and money/influence/the media/etc.
My draft hot take: Since Niners took a WR everyone is going to be talking deebo or Aiyuk trade.
But Kyle’s plan all along has been to get another WR, still pay BA and go into the season with all 3 and Kittle so anyone can run any of the routes at any time (probably included CMC).
Deebo has a team out in his contract after the season where they can get out of the cap for very little dead cap. This was a draft to replace Deebo, not this season but next. No movement will happen before then.
But Kyle’s plan all along has been to get another WR, still pay BA and go into the season with all 3 and Kittle so anyone can run any of the routes at any time (probably included CMC).
Deebo has a team out in his contract after the season where they can get out of the cap for very little dead cap. This was a draft to replace Deebo, not this season but next. No movement will happen before then.
BB would absolutely do this. With Wolf we really have no idea. Will be interesting to see.
Yeah so maybe it 2026 they'll be better off. Still doesn't help them win games this year, which is why you go out and get a guy like Cousins. If they were going to pick Penix, just don't sign Cousins and use that money elsewhere. Rating Penix highly is defensible, but with their current QB situation it reeks of being too clever by half.
Is this where we post the Billy Maddison clip of everyone being dumber for listening to that?
Absolutely idiotic reasoning. You go out and spend big money on a QB. Your division is one of the weakest in the league. You absolutely have the opportunity to make a splash this year. Then you draft a backup QB with the number 8 overall. What it must be like to be a Falcons fan. Whiffed on Belichick now this.
I think not going with Belichick is completely understandable, as was signing Cousins to that deal. This pick is just completely baffling. What are we even doing here? This would be defensible next year, as you can get out of the Cousins deal before 2026 without much issue, but jesus. As you said, trash division, in position to get either a difference maker at receiver or the best defender in the draft of your choosing and you get a 45 year old QB with 4 season ending injuries. Just incredible stuff.
The idea that the Falcons are secret geniuses for making this pick is absolute fucking madness.
It’s not that the logic of picking Penix is flawed. It’s that it is fundamentally and inalterably incompatible with the strategy of signing Cousins to a big (guaranteed) money deal with the stated intent of competing right now.
This sort of impulse-driven decision-making with no concern for a cohesive organizational strategy is why the Falcons are such a fucked up franchise.
It’s not that the logic of picking Penix is flawed. It’s that it is fundamentally and inalterably incompatible with the strategy of signing Cousins to a big (guaranteed) money deal with the stated intent of competing right now.
This sort of impulse-driven decision-making with no concern for a cohesive organizational strategy is why the Falcons are such a fucked up franchise.
The Falcons quietly are one of the worst run franchises. Everyone likes Blank, but he's sneakily one of those "I love flash" owners, AND he's a "this is my guy" owner with McKay, who did a great job on the business side but now is on football. Word is he wanted a QB succession plan, but #8.....
Fontenot has done this with his picks....
2021- #4 overall.... took a TE over... Jamar Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Smith, Horn, Surtain, Parsons, Slater.... just insane, also could probably have traded to a team who wanted Fields.
2022- #8 overall... took WR Drake London who is solid (but worse than the guys they could have had the year prior)
2023- #8 overall.... TOOK A FUVKING RB... over... Wright, Skoronski, etc. etc.
2024- #8 overall.... Took a QB with the intent of sitting him for 2-4 years over top options at other positions or trading down.
This is not a franchise run by serious people.
Orlovsky must also LOVE the process.
View: https://twitter.com/dmrussini/status/1783854089320730991?s=46&t=1S4eWjX_rzBBrpPNddRPAg
View: https://twitter.com/dmrussini/status/1783854089320730991?s=46&t=1S4eWjX_rzBBrpPNddRPAg
I think you're right and the key is the bolded. The Falcons can't say they're competing NOW and drafting a backup QB when there were lots of outstanding players who should make an impact as rookies on the board.
The only thought I can stomach to counter the bashing of the pick it that both players/contracts should be valuable assets over the next year or 2. But again, even if that's true the lack of forethought and philosophical cohesion is staggering, and overrides that regardless.
The Penix move is just a real headscratcher. The nicest possible thing I can say is that it might have been a good move a year from now.
Cousins gets a huge deal with the intention of competing for a Super Bowl literally this year. I also have to assume that even though it's get-out-of-able after year 2, there's some hope and expectation he can be good for the length of the 4 year contract.
The team is good - the skill positions are very good given the last 3 drafts - but not perfect, especially on defense.
So instead of taking an elite WR or TE or tackle or the literal 1st defensive player off the board, or trading back even a few spots and picking up some legitimate draft capital (and maybe still getting the first defensive player off the board!!!!), they take a guy who wasn't consensus top 10 talent, has two bad injuries, will be 26+ the first time you play him barring disaster, and you'll have to make a decision on his 5th year option after MAYBE 1 season of in game action, and you piss off the guy you just signed to big money to theoretically end his career with you...it's absolutely bananas. It's one of the riskiest draft picks in NFL history, I honestly believe that.
Cousins gets a huge deal with the intention of competing for a Super Bowl literally this year. I also have to assume that even though it's get-out-of-able after year 2, there's some hope and expectation he can be good for the length of the 4 year contract.
The team is good - the skill positions are very good given the last 3 drafts - but not perfect, especially on defense.
So instead of taking an elite WR or TE or tackle or the literal 1st defensive player off the board, or trading back even a few spots and picking up some legitimate draft capital (and maybe still getting the first defensive player off the board!!!!), they take a guy who wasn't consensus top 10 talent, has two bad injuries, will be 26+ the first time you play him barring disaster, and you'll have to make a decision on his 5th year option after MAYBE 1 season of in game action, and you piss off the guy you just signed to big money to theoretically end his career with you...it's absolutely bananas. It's one of the riskiest draft picks in NFL history, I honestly believe that.
Sounds like me in college.
"Did you study?"
"I'm comfortable with the work I did."
For like 30 minutes I assumed Atlanta had drafted Penix for someone else and they just couldn’t get the trade paperwork in time or there was a wrinkle.
They have to still be working on the paperwork. I just can't wrap my head around this. Even for Atlanta.
yeah me too, I was like... oh they ran out of time and took him to finish the last details
All I keep thinking about is one of my favorite jokes:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/4kq13k/3_guys_are_hiking_through_the_woods_when_they/
It really is bizarre, Orlovsky's explanation notwithstanding. Cousins is locked in at an enormous price tag for four years. Of course they could view it as a sunk cost, sure, fine, whatever. But if they see Penix as developmental, a guy waiting in the wings after Cousins plays QB for a couple of years, by the time Penix starts he will be 26-27 years of age. That's not the end of the world, as Rodgers didn't start til age 25, and Steve Young didn't really start in the NFL til age 31 (!). So you can get quite a few years of excellent production. But then, why not trade back and draft Penix a little later, adding some draft capital along the way? I can't believe they couldn't have gotten him a little later in the first round.
And if Cousins remains really good, then do they sit a guy who's playing really well in year 3 or 4 of his contract? Then Penix won't start til his late 20s. Just seems really, really odd. They could have used this pick to draft, I don't know, a stud on defense or even Xavier Worthy.
And if Cousins remains really good, then do they sit a guy who's playing really well in year 3 or 4 of his contract? Then Penix won't start til his late 20s. Just seems really, really odd. They could have used this pick to draft, I don't know, a stud on defense or even Xavier Worthy.
I think the pieces fit. They can play Penix through his prime, and then once he begins his decline they’ll still have Cousins under contract for a couple more years.
I think LV was going to take him, so not a lot of room to trade back, but that doesn't make it any less insane that ATL took him at all. I would have had them pegged as a Shadeur Sanders landing spot in 2025.
COusins is really only locked for 2 years I would say. If they cut him after next year they take a hit on 2026-27 cap but not horrendous.....
BUT... that means you got 1 cheap year at QB, right? Say Cousins is good year 1, gets hurt or declines late year 2 you move on.... year 3 is Penix's rookie year (at age 26) and you're paying 30 something million for him and Cousins' dead cap. Then at the end of that year you have to decide on a 5th year option in the high 20s, low 30s. So year 4 is the only cheap year.
Sorry for throwing more niners stuff into this thread, but I was heartened by C.J. Stroud's reaction to their pick. The only time he did anything like this in the first round:
View: https://twitter.com/Lobs_All_Day/status/1783732070008983785
View: https://twitter.com/Lobs_All_Day/status/1783732070008983785
I don’t think they could have traded back and gotten Penix given how the QB’s came off the board.
the insane part is giving Cousins a big contract, presumably because they think they can win now (soft division, decent talent elsewhere especially on offense) and then not doing anything to further help their 2024 team.
I can see drafting a developmental QB if you really love the guy but a 24 year old? That makes the insanity even worse. McCarthy would have made more sense to sit for 2-3 years.