2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

[chawson]

O'Neill now up to .333/.450/.758/1.208, with 9 homers in just 19 games. Obviously he won't keep this up but he's been amazing. I'm very curious to see whether Boston extends him or trades him at the deadline.

He’s already shown enough that a QO is a virtual lock, in my mind.

He’s a Boras client so I’m not sure what potential there is for an extension, but O’Neill is hitting like a right-handed Yordan Alvarez and there’s nothing to suggest it’s been lucky. He’s only turning 29 this summer, and the team’s been so short on right-handed power.

It’ll be an interesting, maybe agonizing decision. Even if he falls back into the 160 wRC+ range, I’d have to think he’d fetch a Top 100 prospect and another back-end one at the deadline. I really hope we’re not 2-3 games back again on July 1st.

 

[chrisfont9]

He’s already shown enough that a QO is a virtual lock, in my mind.

He’s a Boras client so I’m not sure what potential there is for an extension, but O’Neill is hitting like a right-handed Yordan Alvarez and there’s nothing to suggest it’s been lucky. He’s only turning 29 this summer, and the team’s been so short on right-handed power.

It’ll be an interesting, maybe agonizing decision.

I’ll say. He was a 6-win player in his last healthy season, and the injuries the last two years weren’t anything big. I’d bet a couple years’ salary on him at least.

 

[Otis Foster]

Weren’t there report that O’Neill was happy with his Boston experience? With Boras riding shotgun, that doesn’t mean very much, but still.

 

[simplicio]

So our IF depth charts now look something like this:

3B Devers Dalbec Reyes Romy Grissom Hamilton Valdez Wong
SS Story Rafaela Reyes Romy Hamilton Grissom
2B Grissom Valdez Reyes Rafaela Romy Hamilton Wong
1B Casas Cooper Dalbec Reyes Romy Refsnyder Valdez Wong

In the minors, we have (assuming Dalbec is optioned when Grissom returns, although Valdez and Hamilton are also candidates):

3B Dalbec Westbrook Sogard Meidroth
SS Sogard Simas Mayer
2B Sogard Simas Yorke Mayer
1B Dalbec Kavadas Hickey

Good post from nvalvo in the Cooper thread after the Reyes DFA, continuing here.

I think Valdez gets optioned when Grissom comes up, unless Masa hits the IL, as he has the least versatility (and Hamilton can PR). I also think Romy bumps someone once he gets healthy, probably Hamilton? And Bobby somehow survives.

My guess on DH without Masa is Refsnyder gets the most time there, but they maybe start rotating OF through the spot for a bit of a break.

 

[Rovin Romine]

May as well. . .and by posting, we're guaranteed quick news on Grissom.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Enmanuel Valdez*​

note: Vaughn Grissom IL/Delayed ST, AAA began 4/12, 20 days max. Due up 4/30?​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Rafael Devers* (day to day shoulder and left knee issues 4/17-4/24.)​

Pablo Reyes - DFA​

Romy Gonzalez (10 Day IL 4/11, wrist sprain) MRI good.​

Bobby Dalbec​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* Possible wrist injury 4/28​

Tyler O'Neill (7 Day IL 4/16, concussion, back 4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Minors (40 man)

NONE​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper.​

 

[Rovin Romine]

May as well. . .and by posting, we're guaranteed quick news on Grissom.

Or not. There's been some reporting Valdez/Dalbec are going to AAA today. I'll edit later if wrong.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2)​

Vaughn Grissom (IL/Delayed ST, hamstring/stomach bug: up 5/3)​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Rafael Devers* (day to day shoulder and left knee issues 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes - DFA ​

Romy Gonzalez (10 Day IL 4/11, wrist sprain) MRI good.​

Zach Short​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (7 Day IL 4/16, concussion, back 4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Minors (40 man)

Enmanuel Valdez*​

Bobby Dalbec​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting.​

Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom.​

 

[E5 Yaz]

@bradfo
Red Sox will be optioning Bobby Dalbec to Worcester
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo

 

[Humphrey]

@bradfo
Red Sox will be optioning Bobby Dalbec to Worcester
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo

Having him starting at first today was quite surprising given they brought in not one, but TWO first basemen!

Reminded me of George Costanza quitting/getting fired and showing up for work the next day like nothing had happened.

 

[LoLsapien]

Did we actually have a guy named Short playing 2B today? Or is the MLB app box score f#cking with me?

 

[Humphrey]

I assume he's a short timer (pun intended) given Grissom's supposed to be in the lineup tonight.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Did we actually have a guy named Short playing 2B today? Or is the MLB app box score f#cking with me?

I assume he's a short timer (pun intended) given Grissom's supposed to be in the lineup tonight.

Are you guys not reading this thread? Or the others on the main board?

We've got 8 starters/primaries and 5 bench players, one of whom will DH.

Starters: Wong, Cooper, Grissom, Rafaela, Devers, Duran, O'Neill, Abreu, (DH).

Bench: McGuire (C), Refsnyder (OF), Smith (1B/DH), Hamilton (2B/SS), Short (2B/SS/3B, emergency OF).

(You can quibble if Refsnyder or Abreu is the 4th OF, or Cooper or Smith is the 1B, or who will DH, but that's basically the shape of it.)

Short's role is to rest the middle infield and provide competent defense - what Pablo Reyes/Romy was supposed to do.

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

The reporting at MLB and other places is Dalbec to AAA for Grissom.

And it makes sense. A non-hitting Dalbec is pretty redundant with Cooper + Smith at 1B and Devers + Short at 3B. At the moment, Hamilton can step into the SS/2B role; Dalbec can't do that.

Hamilton may eventually go down for Romy, but ultimately, with a healthy Romy/Short type on the club, we might see whomever has the best bat come up from AAA to take one of the 2 MI spots: Dalbec, Valdez, Hamilton. I don't think you need both Romy and Short on a club, unless Romy is really hitting and the AAA bats are all stalled.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

Dalbec got sent down yesterday after the game so presumably that's how they're getting Grissom on the roster.

Short is the Pablo Reyes replacement, ultimately. Hamilton is effectively the 6th middle infielder and outfielder (by allowing Rafaela to move out there if necessary).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Got it, that makes sense. Hard to keep track of all the comings and goings at this point.

 

[KillerBs]

So, based on where we stand, Dominic Smith and Cooper start vs most RHPers at 1b and dh. Hamilton's role looks like giving Grissom a day off here and there at 2b.

We kinda need Dom Smith and Cooper to OPS around 100?

Against lefties Refsnyder is in the lineup of course (practically in lieu of Smith) and Duran and Abreu are too, though either could get a day off by starting Short at SS and pushing CR to CF.

 

[Rovin Romine]

So, based on where we stand, Dominic Smith and Cooper start vs most RHPers at 1b and dh. Hamilton's role looks like giving Grissom a day off here and there at 2b.

We kinda need Dom Smith and Cooper to OPS around 100?

Against lefties Refsnyder is in the lineup of course (practically in lieu of Smith) and Duran and Abreu are too, though either could get a day off by starting Short at SS and pushing CR to CF.

I think that scans.

Cooper's basically cleared the "average OPS bar" since 2019, so he's a good bet.

Smith is more of a reclamation project at this point. Though he did OPS+ at 93 last year with a large R/L split. So as a DH against RHP, he might be just fine.

Part of the Hamilton equation might be the immediate schedule. They have 3 @ MIN, a day off, 2 @ ATL, a day off, and then they're back for a 7 day homestand against WSN and TBR. The MN games are a night game, then two day games at 2pm Eastern. So if Grissom relapses or someone gets injured during warm-ups or the like, there's no real option to zip in somebody from WOR.

 

[simplicio]

@PeteAbe
Nothing official as of now. But Nick Pivetta and Romy Gonzalez will be added to the roster tomorrow with Naoyuri Uwasawa headed back to Triple A. Another position player will be dropped, as well. Also Rob Refsnyder is day-to-day but doesn't appear to be an IL situation.

I think that "other position player" has to be Hamilton, much as I'd love to be done with the Dom Smith experience.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Getting nothing out of DH and 1B right now is really hurting. Getting Ref back means an OF could DH at least.

 

[simplicio]

Short is DFA. I honestly forgot he existed.
View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1788041833471164476

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Short is DFA. I honestly forgot he existed.
View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1788041833471164476

This was exactly why Short was signed...to be cut when other guys got healthy enough to replace him. He and Romy on the same roster is redundant. Maybe they can slip him through waivers and send him to Worcester to maintain some depth but it's not like he'll be missed if he moves on.

 

[Fishy1]

Getting nothing out of DH and 1B right now is really hurting. Getting Ref back means an OF could DH at least.

Totally agree, but I think there's some reason for optimism with the two guys we;ve got. Cooper and Smith haven't been great, and I don't expect them to be really. But they're not striking out 50% of the time and it's very, very early to be making a judgment call on either of them, I think. 20 plate appearances or so.

Smith has been a league average bat for his career with outbursts of lunacy (and finally had hamate surgery after years of "tendinitis"), while Cooper has been an above average bat his entire career (a career BABIP of .345 is kind of crazy). Smith had what looked to be preternatural power but it disappeared suddenly a couple of years ago (which I suspect coincided with the tendinitis worsening).

More on Smith's Hamate surgery:

Smith disclosed this week in an interview with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic that he's dealt with some form of right wrist or hand pain since reaching the majors in 2017.

Smith suffered a displaced fracture of his hamate bone in a Jan. 5 workout and underwent surgery Jan. 20 to remove the bone. The first baseman was diagnosed with tendinitis in the wrist years ago but suspects he might have been dealing with a small fracture all along that just worsened in January. Smith is in Cubs camp as a non-roster invitee and is competing for one of the final bench spots.

No homers from him yet, obviously, but he had one that nearly snuck out last series and a couple of other hard hit deep fly balls the last few games. He's only 29, too. The hamate surgery may have sapped his power, and there's plenty of guys who've had that injury and recovered over time to get their power back (Giancarlo Stanton being a good example, though not really an appropriate one here, maybe).

Just to say there's some reason for optimism with these guys.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Totally agree, but I think there's some reason for optimism with the two guys we;ve got. Cooper and Smith haven't been great, and I don't expect them to be really. But they're not striking out 50% of the time and it's very, very early to be making a judgment call on either of them, I think. 20 plate appearances or so.

Smith has been a league average bat for his career with outbursts of lunacy (and finally had hamate surgery after years of "tendinitis"), while Cooper has been an above average bat his entire career (a career BABIP of .345 is kind of crazy). Smith had what looked to be preternatural power but it disappeared suddenly a couple of years ago (which I suspect coincided with the tendinitis worsening).

More on Smith's Hamate surgery:



No homers from him yet, obviously, but he had one that nearly snuck out last series and a couple of other hard hit deep fly balls the last few games. He's only 29, too. The hamate surgery may have sapped his power, and there's plenty of guys who've had that injury and recovered over time to get their power back (Giancarlo Stanton being a good example, though not really an appropriate one here, maybe).

Just to say there's some reason for optimism with these guys.

Aren't you supposed to lose power for a year after hamate surgery? Hardly optimistic for Smith.

 

[Fishy1]

Aren't you supposed to lose power for a year after hamate surgery? Hardly optimistic for Smith.

Sure, I'll do the research for you.

According to this analysis of the data, yeah, good point.

But I'd note a few things: that Smith had the surgery in the offseason, early January -- so nearly half a year ago -- and had Spring Training (where he hit pretty well) and some minor league time (where he did not hit well) to get his feet back under him.

According to the analysis above, a full season of at-bats was what it took for most of the players to see their ISO stabilize at or above their pre-injury ISO, although that wasn't true of all of them, and actually guys came back with a BETTER ISO on average in the end, although the sample size is small.

And actually, looking at the data, some of the swings in ISO in the first year post-surgery seem just like the normal variance that guys have in small sample sizes. Some of them had ISOs better than their average almost immediately, then saw dips in ISO as the season progressed, and pretty much everybody but poor Nick Markakis stabilized at ISOs better than their average pre-surgery.

Gwynn, Brantley, Pedroia, and Tulo all saw their ISOs spike above their average within 50 games of returning from surgery. Markakis saw his reach his pre-surgery average within 50 games, but then his ISO cratered afterward. Zimmerman also reached his pre-injury ISO within 50 games, but then he too saw his crater for a while, not getting back to his pre-surgery numbers till game 200 post-surgery. Here's the chart I'm referring to:



Which is all to say... yeah, I'm not sure it takes a whole year to recover, and the fact that he may have been playing with this for years is not in itself a reason for unalloyed optimism, but it may explain the way his numbers tanked, and I do think he deserves a shot to hit. He hasn't looked great to me so far, but he did hit a ball for a single at 103 mph, which would have been a homer in most parks, and he's hit a couple others to the opposite field hard that would have been wall ball doubles in Fenway... so...

I don't know, I'm not saying the guys gonna be stud, just that he's got pedigree and he's left-handed, which Refsnyder and Cooper are not. Wrist injuries are brutal on hitters, and he posted almost a full season of a wrc+ of like 150 between ages 24 and 25, which is no joke.

And yeah, some guys figure it all out late. Look at Justin Turner. He didn't post a 3 win season or an above-average wrc+ until he was 29. To be clear, I'm not saying he's the next Justin Turner, just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

 

[nvalvo]

just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

Yes, this. When either Casas or Yoshida near a return — or if the team gets an opportunity, perhaps by trade at the deadline or from the minors, to add a two-way infielder and shift Devers to mostly DH — then Smith is on the clock.

In other words, I don't think Dom Smith makes a hypothetical playoff roster, but I'd be interested to see what he can do with 150–200 PA. BEST CASE SCENARIO is that Smith hits well, Casas and/or Yoshida make a relatively rapid recovery, and we find ourselves with a desirable trade asset for the deadline that we can turn into another young pitcher for the pipeline.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Minor updates:

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2)​

Vaughn Grissom (hamstring: delayed ST, up 5/3)​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Rafael Devers* (shoulder and left knee issues -no IL-: 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes (DFA 4/28)​

Romy Gonzalez (wrist sprain: IL 4/11-5/8)​

Zach Short (up 5/1, DFA 5/8)​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (concussion: IL 4/16-4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Minors (40 man)

Enmanuel Valdez* - 2B​

Bobby Dalbec - 1B/3B​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Pablo Reyes (outrighed 5/6)​

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper, outrighted to WOR 5/6.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1, DFA'd 5/8 for Romy Gonzalez.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Garrett Cooper signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting.​

Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom.​

 

[Yo La Tengo]

And yeah, some guys figure it all out late. Look at Justin Turner. He didn't post a 3 win season or an above-average wrc+ until he was 29. To be clear, I'm not saying he's the next Justin Turner, just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

I was thinking about "some guys figure it out late" with regard to Dalbec, trying to figure out if there was any precedent for his career arc to date shifting to becoming an above average, full time MLB player. Turner came to mind and I found a substack by Paul White that includes a "Late Bloomers" theme for some of the posts. Amongst the group he's looked at so far: Dwight Evans (obviously), Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Matt Stairs, Tony Phillips, Luis Gonzalez, and a bunch of older players with names I didn't recognize. Very enjoyable reads: https://pauldwhite.substack.com/

 

[Fishy1]

I was thinking about "some guys figure it out late" with regard to Dalbec, trying to figure out if there was any precedent for his career arc to date shifting to becoming an above average, full time MLB player. Turner came to mind and I found a substack by Paul White that includes a "Late Bloomers" theme for some of the posts. Amongst the group he's looked at so far: Dwight Evans (obviously), Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Matt Stairs, Tony Phillips, Luis Gonzalez, and a bunch of older players with names I didn't recognize. Very enjoyable reads: https://pauldwhite.substack.com/

This is great, thank you.

Yeah, Dalbec unfortunately seems to me more likely to follow the Middlebrooks track. I thought maybe he'd be like Carlos Pena, but then I looked at Pena's actual K numbers, and the guy was mostly around 27%. Which is not great, but you can survive. 35% plus K rate and it starts to get reallllllly difficult.