I'm sure Bloom will come up with another reclamation project for next year.
Hopefully someone closer to 2022 Wacha than 2023 Kluber.
Hopefully someone closer to 2022 Wacha than 2023 Kluber.
2024 Core
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
As well he should. They are decent short-term, low cost bets. He just needs to make sure it's a complimentary move to the two or three locked-in solid starters that he also acquires.
I kind of wonder if it's just mutually agreed that he's hit the wall, and this just helps answer any questions. I'm sure there's technically inflammation in his knee, along with everywhere in his body, as is the case for everyone else in MLB this time of year.
It makes sense that 118 innings, after a three-year layoff, is about all he's got, so it's probably mutually beneficial to just end his season now. The QO doesn't make sense anymore but I'd be happy to keep him around at $10 million or so.
I recognize that the defense would be more helpful in the outfield, but given the current makeup of the roster, why isn't there more discussion about Rafaela being used more in the infield next season? (I may just be missing it, but it doesn't seem so.) If the right deal opens up, I am all for making room for him in the outfield via creative trade, but until and unless that happens I'd I'd probably rather roll with him at second than any of the current-roster alternatives. This is a question primarily of next season; I'd assume the opportunity would still exist to play him in the outfield in future years.
Because the middle infield is just as crowded as the outfield appears to be. They've got Story, Urias, Reyes, Hamilton and Valdez on the 40-man plus Chang lingering in Worcester. Not to mention most of the up and coming prospects are middle infielders as well.
Also, I think the difference between Rafaela's defense and the infield alternatives is small enough that carrying his potentially weak bat may not be a net gain, whereas his outfield defense, relative to the alternatives, might be.
Feels like it was on-and-off all season, which is what worries me that 118 innings is more like his ceiling going forward. Such a bummer that he fell apart two seconds after the trade deadline.
If expectations for next year's team is for a vastly improved team, I can't see a spot for Paxton. If he goes unsigned and is willing to take a minor league deal with an opt out, perhaps.
You're most likely correct, but I can't think of another circumstance where it makes sense for the Sox to pursue him for the '24 season.
Gotcha. I don’t think it makes sense. Bloom might think so, though.
Can I ask a general question? What do we mean by “core?” To me, it’s the players on long-term contracts (Devers, Yoshida, and Story) plus the pre-FA starters under control (Casas, Duran and possibly Rafaela and Abreu.) I.e. the players in your lineup that you build around, with shorter-term add-ons (Turner, Duvall, Janson, and Martin.)
Yeah, this thread's kinda' morphed into the '24 rotation thread. I think the core is pretty much the players that you project be the heart and soul of the team for the next 4-5 years and perhaps a bit beyond and like you say, the group or foundation that you hope to build around.
I should have included them. I’d like to see an OF of Duran/Abreu/Rafaela next year (with Yoshida getting a majority of ABs as DH and Refsnyder stating against LHP.) I like Verdugo, but can’t see the Sox extending him considering the talent in the OF pipeline. I won’t be disappointed if they do, though.
Hm, didn't Cora say the other day that Duran is a big part of their plans going forward? Not that you can take public utterances at face value, but still.
Rumors starting to swirl that maybe, just maybe, the Angels would consider trading Trout.
First, the contract: Signed through 2030 (age 38) at $35.5m a season. No small chunk of change, but in today's market, a player of his ABILITY is well worth $35.5m.
Second, the player: Obviously an all-world elite talent. Just last year, in only 119 games (more on that next), he hit 40 bombs and slashed .283/.369/.630/.999 with a 176 ops+. Worth 6.3 bWAR in just 119 games. And he's still a positive defensive player. He's not the player he WAS from 2011-2019, but he's still obviously a terrific, terrific all around baseball player.
Third, the injuries: Well now, this is the problem, right? Through 2016 he was always healthy and played full seasons. Then he played just 114 in 2017, 140 in 2018, 134 in 2019, skip 2020 obviously, then 36 in 2021, 119 in 2022, and just 82 so far in 2023.
So in the last 3 seasons, out of a possible 469 team games, he's only played in 237 of them. That's basically exactly half their games. Yet he's still compiled 10.8 bWAR in half their games over that span of time. So let's assume that due to injury, he's basically now just a 3.7 WAR player a year. That would STILL be the highest on the current Red Sox team, by 0.7 over Verdugo (3.0) and Devers (3.0).
The thing is...he would be PERFECT for this team. Move Verdugo and a couple of prospects to LAA and plug Trout in RF. You pay for it financially for sure, but they need serious RH power, and a guy who can play in this OF. Trout can do both. Yes, you'd have to live with the injury reality. But maybe you "load manage" him some and expect just 120 games out of him. If he plays 120, with his talent, he's probably a 6 WAR player. He'd slot in perfectly as a power RH bat with all these lefties.
I don't know what LAA could reasonably ask for in a trade. On the one hand, it's Mike Fricking Trout. On the other, he's been broken down a TON, and he costs a LOT of money, and he's already 32 years of age.
I think it's worth exploring if you're Boston. Make that trade, then sign Yamamoto, and one other lesser SP, and see how that goes?
First, the contract: Signed through 2030 (age 38) at $35.5m a season. No small chunk of change, but in today's market, a player of his ABILITY is well worth $35.5m.
Second, the player: Obviously an all-world elite talent. Just last year, in only 119 games (more on that next), he hit 40 bombs and slashed .283/.369/.630/.999 with a 176 ops+. Worth 6.3 bWAR in just 119 games. And he's still a positive defensive player. He's not the player he WAS from 2011-2019, but he's still obviously a terrific, terrific all around baseball player.
Third, the injuries: Well now, this is the problem, right? Through 2016 he was always healthy and played full seasons. Then he played just 114 in 2017, 140 in 2018, 134 in 2019, skip 2020 obviously, then 36 in 2021, 119 in 2022, and just 82 so far in 2023.
So in the last 3 seasons, out of a possible 469 team games, he's only played in 237 of them. That's basically exactly half their games. Yet he's still compiled 10.8 bWAR in half their games over that span of time. So let's assume that due to injury, he's basically now just a 3.7 WAR player a year. That would STILL be the highest on the current Red Sox team, by 0.7 over Verdugo (3.0) and Devers (3.0).
The thing is...he would be PERFECT for this team. Move Verdugo and a couple of prospects to LAA and plug Trout in RF. You pay for it financially for sure, but they need serious RH power, and a guy who can play in this OF. Trout can do both. Yes, you'd have to live with the injury reality. But maybe you "load manage" him some and expect just 120 games out of him. If he plays 120, with his talent, he's probably a 6 WAR player. He'd slot in perfectly as a power RH bat with all these lefties.
I don't know what LAA could reasonably ask for in a trade. On the one hand, it's Mike Fricking Trout. On the other, he's been broken down a TON, and he costs a LOT of money, and he's already 32 years of age.
I think it's worth exploring if you're Boston. Make that trade, then sign Yamamoto, and one other lesser SP, and see how that goes?
2024 lineup with Trout
C - Wong (Teel maybe coming on hard late in 2024?)
1b - Casas
2b - Urias
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Duran
RF - Trout
DH - Turner (let's say he's back)
CF Duran (L)
SS Story (R)
3b Devers (L)
RF Trout (R)
1b Casas (L)
DH Turner (R)
LF Yoshida (L)
2b Urias (R)
C Wong (R)
OR...have Rafaela play SS, move Story to 2b....
CF Duran (L)
2b Story (R)
3b Devers (L)
RF Trout (R)
1b Casas (L)
DH Turner (R)
LF Yoshida (L)
SS Rafaela (R)
C Wong (R)
Have a bench of Abreu (L), Refsnyder (R), McGuire (L), Urias (R).
C - Wong (Teel maybe coming on hard late in 2024?)
1b - Casas
2b - Urias
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Duran
RF - Trout
DH - Turner (let's say he's back)
CF Duran (L)
SS Story (R)
3b Devers (L)
RF Trout (R)
1b Casas (L)
DH Turner (R)
LF Yoshida (L)
2b Urias (R)
C Wong (R)
OR...have Rafaela play SS, move Story to 2b....
CF Duran (L)
2b Story (R)
3b Devers (L)
RF Trout (R)
1b Casas (L)
DH Turner (R)
LF Yoshida (L)
SS Rafaela (R)
C Wong (R)
Have a bench of Abreu (L), Refsnyder (R), McGuire (L), Urias (R).
The rumors all trace back to Bob Nightengale, who doesn't exactly have the best reputation for getting these things right. I wouldn't go too far planning out a Trout future in Boston.
It also strikes me as not the sort of thing Bloom would do, mostly because of the cost. Whether it's his full salary or the prospect cost to get the Angels to eat some of the salary, seems like it would not really fit with the path the team is on.
It also strikes me as not the sort of thing Bloom would do, mostly because of the cost. Whether it's his full salary or the prospect cost to get the Angels to eat some of the salary, seems like it would not really fit with the path the team is on.
I mean, it's far, far, far more likely that it WON'T happen, for lots of reasons. I'm just considering the possibility is all. He really would be a perfect fit, even with the injury issues.
Well, apart from giving up a haul of ML talent to get him. . .and the point where maybe he plays half the games with a Devers level offense while taking up 15% of your payroll. I just don't see it happening at all.
It makes a lot more sense to keep Verdugo and let Turner go if you're getting Trout. You need to plan for injury with him and Fenway requires two good outfielders. Verdugo and Trout could share the corners when he's healthy with Yoshida at DH, then Yoshida plays left when he's hurt and Verdugo slips back to right.
But overall, I'm not sure how much the team is improved by upgrading Turner to Trout in the lineup. They may take a large step back with a 39 year old Turner versus 38, so you'd need to make a move regardless. But the overall offense in 2024 with Trout may likely be similar to 2023 when taking missed time into consideration.
But overall, I'm not sure how much the team is improved by upgrading Turner to Trout in the lineup. They may take a large step back with a 39 year old Turner versus 38, so you'd need to make a move regardless. But the overall offense in 2024 with Trout may likely be similar to 2023 when taking missed time into consideration.
You're right it's not a bad fit, and this sort of thing is worth a phone call of course, but I'd rather spend that kind of money on Juan Soto than Trout's age 32-40 seasons.
If Dombrowski wants to fulfill his destiny and make Trout a Phillie, I could probably be interested in taking on a mostly paid down Castellanos or Schwarber to come DH for us.
I get it. But I'm looking to add major RH pop to the lineup, which is very, very LH heavy. Schwarber doesn't do that.
Trout is a great player- when he plays. Which isn’t all that often. Unlikely that he gets healthier as he gets older. Hard pass for me.
BTV has Trout at 86.6 mil underwater. I think that undersells it. I would not give him ~ 168 mil for 7 years for age 32 to 38 when he's had major injuries each of the last 3 years, the latest one (hamate) being notoriously difficult to come back from.
The Angels' superpower the next few years while they rebuild is that they can absorb dead money, so I'd expect them to eat much more than 86 mil in exchange for prospects. I don't know where I'd draw the line, but given the injuries, I would not want the Sox to be the high bidder.
The Angels' superpower the next few years while they rebuild is that they can absorb dead money, so I'd expect them to eat much more than 86 mil in exchange for prospects. I don't know where I'd draw the line, but given the injuries, I would not want the Sox to be the high bidder.
Totally, it's a real concern. I think Duvall, for all his warts, is kind of necessary to keep around until we get a real top shelf bopper. Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Bell or Rhys Hoskins all seem like good short-term fits too.
On the other hand, if the Angels want to send Trout, Adell, Canning and $70 million for Chris Sale, Bobby Dalbec and like, Eddinson Paulino, then sure, that could be interesting.
I do wonder what is reasonable for LAA to ask in a trade, or more precisely, what the market would be, for Trout. As we discussed, he's obviously an elite player - not what he used to be, but still an elite talent. But he's getting older, costs a ton of $$, for a lot of years, and has only played half the games over the last 3 years.
I don't think it's reasonable for LAA to demand a haul, because those latter issues are significant. Definitely a decent package, but nothing insane, I wouldn't think.
I don't think it's reasonable for LAA to demand a haul, because those latter issues are significant. Definitely a decent package, but nothing insane, I wouldn't think.
They'd have to get some kind of prospect they can tout. On our end, I don't think it'd make sense to include a prospect more valuable than Yorke.
But Yorke and Verdugo (and probably something else) works. A near all-star player in his prime (Verdugo) who is also cheap, an excellent prospect, plus something else, for a "broken down, old, and $35m a year" Trout, when LAA would obviously be rebuilding, might work.
Then again, it might not.
I would think the idea would be to either flip him, or pay him a modest rate to be a near all-star player for a lot less money over the next 6 years. He's a good player.
Just a comment and only for the sake of conversation. The idea of Mike Trout on your team should be exciting for any fan. Yes the recent injury history should raise some eyebrows and as you point out, he's now 32 years old. Let me add to this that not only would there be a large $$$ commitment here, but it's pretty much accepted that with these big contracts you're paying out the late years for the opportunity of having the player locked down for what is presumed to be the more productive first 4, 5 or 6 years. Any team bringing Trout in doesn't get that benefit and will be paying on the back end of the contract for the years that Trout's played for the Angels. With all of that said, Trout is/has been a generational talent who should have plenty to offer going forward. The question is how much? Not just how much does he have left to give, but how much are you willing to move in trade capital, and how much money (if any) might LA be willing to eat? You mention the possibility of bringing in Yamamota, a lesser SP and Trout. The unknown definition of lesser here is huge. IMO it has to be a clear upgrade (at least on paper because that's all you have going into the season) over anyone other than Bello. In my mind there isn't enough $$$ or trade capital left to make such a move if you bring in Trout. Add to that the idea of bringing Turner back in your follow up post and I just think that so much of what you have available in funds and trade chips might be better off if it can be spread around a bit more.
LA will demand/ask whatever they think is reasonable and then some. What they get will depend on how much interest there is, what those teams have available to offer and how badly they want Trout. Getting a third team involved is always a creative way to get things done and might be a way for LA to get the maximum return.
Minor quibble here: hamate injuries are not at all difficult to come back from. Once the broken hook is removed or shaved down there is usually little or no impact on the long term health of the player. It's just super painful before it is repaired and is a sensitive area that takes time to heal. Pain tolerance is usually the limit for return, which is another way of saying no long term damage will result from this pain. Often the power that may be lost comes back within a year or sooner and is typically result of the ability to let loose and push through pain.
That said, Trout's injury history, cost and age are all very relevant to your point.
If that's true, mea culpa on that point and thx for the correction. As you suggest, this moves the needle a bit bit it's still pointing in the roughly the same direction.
Granted, the Angels are sort of atypical in their approach with prospects in that they tend to promote them a bit aggressively (to put it mildly). But I’d think a starting point would be one of Rafaela/Abreu/Duran, one of Houck/Crawford/Whitlock, and Yorke. I genuinely have no idea if that’s too much or not enough just because the situation is so unusual. Which, ultimately, is probably why he won’t be trade to the Red Sox.
Probably? I don’t really see either of them as important long-term pieces. (Which probably means the Angels don’t either.)
How much are the Angels kicking in financially as part of this package?
I'm not a big BTV guy...& they only value Abreu at $3.3m which is kind of silly at this point...but even with that, they say the Angels would need to kick in about $109m for it to be a fair trade.
As a general issue, RHH's would be:
Story
Wong
Uiras
Rafaela
Refsnyder
(Dalbec)
maybe:
Turner
Duvall
Major LHHs are the two corner IF spots, Devers and Casas. Devers has no split worth mentioning. Casas, while being used more selectively, has no significant split in that more limited use. Then there's Yoshida in LF/DH, while he has a 60 point OPS split, a .753 OPS v LHP is nothing to sneeze at.
The rest of the OF, Duran, Abreu, Verdugo. . .you can probably get by augmenting them with Rafaela and Refsnyder. Particularly because Duran has a .327 OBP v. LHP. . .and we just need to get him on base.
Abreu had a pretty stark split in the minors, FWIW - .180 OPS. . .but we're talking .788 to .968. So he may also be passible against ML LHP. Just gotta see what happens.
In short, we could use some RHH pop. . .a Duvall or Turner, but I think this is not as much a problem as some assume. In fact, they're both almost perfect - a RHH CF with power. A RHH corner IF with power that can spell Devers and Casas.
Interesting Duvall does not have much of a split.
At this point, I'd almost rather Duvall came back than Turner.
Same here. For a guy most thought would be traded at the deadline, maybe even acquired for that purpose, Duvall seems like an important piece.
Top RHB by ISO, 2021-23 (min. 800 PAs)
1. Judge - .322
2. Trout - .297
3. Buxton - .288
4. Alonso - .267
5. Betts - .263
6. Tatis Jr. - .260
7. Wisdom - .259
8. Duvall - .252
9. Stanton - .246
10. Hoskins - .242
Top RHB by ISO, 2023 (min. 300 PAs)
1. Judge - .339
2. Alonso - .304
3. Betts - .298
4. Duvall - .297
5. J.D. Martinez - .292
6. Robert - .282
7. Burger - .277
8. Soler - .273
9. Siri - .272
10. Ozuna - .261
Would love to see Chaim go after two top starters and keep the lineup. Need to give the young guys a chance to hit. Think something like this gets you pretty far even in a stacked AL:
1 Jarren Duran (L) LF
2 Rafael Devers (L) 3B
3 Adam Duvall (R) RF - 2yrs $30M
4 Triston Casas (L) 1B
5 Masataka Yoshida (L) DH
6 Trevor Story (R) SS
7 Luis Urias (R)
8 Connor Wong (R)
9 Ceddane Rafaela (R) CF
Bench Reese McGuire (L)
Bench Pablo Reyes (R)
Bench Rob Refsnyder (R)
Bench Wilyer Abreu (L)
Rotation
1 Blake Snell (L) - 6yrs $175M
2 Logan Gilbert (R) - Traded for Alex Verdugo, Anthony/Bleis, Nick Yorke
3 Bryan Bello (R)
4 Tanner Houck (R)
5 Kutter Crawford (R)
6 Chris Sale (L)
Pen
Bulk Nick Pivetta (R)
Bulk Garret Whitlock (R)
MRP Josh Wincowski (R)
MRP Brendan Bernadino (L)
MRP John Schrieber (R)
SU Chris Martin (R)
CP Kenley Jansen (R)
1 Jarren Duran (L) LF
2 Rafael Devers (L) 3B
3 Adam Duvall (R) RF - 2yrs $30M
4 Triston Casas (L) 1B
5 Masataka Yoshida (L) DH
6 Trevor Story (R) SS
7 Luis Urias (R)
8 Connor Wong (R)
9 Ceddane Rafaela (R) CF
Bench Reese McGuire (L)
Bench Pablo Reyes (R)
Bench Rob Refsnyder (R)
Bench Wilyer Abreu (L)
Rotation
1 Blake Snell (L) - 6yrs $175M
2 Logan Gilbert (R) - Traded for Alex Verdugo, Anthony/Bleis, Nick Yorke
3 Bryan Bello (R)
4 Tanner Houck (R)
5 Kutter Crawford (R)
6 Chris Sale (L)
Pen
Bulk Nick Pivetta (R)
Bulk Garret Whitlock (R)
MRP Josh Wincowski (R)
MRP Brendan Bernadino (L)
MRP John Schrieber (R)
SU Chris Martin (R)
CP Kenley Jansen (R)
Huge fan of this idea, I mentioned something like it in one of the innumerable trade deadline (ish) threads. I included Bleis and Yorke as two of the main pieces as well. I think you'd need to either add another "Verdugo" piece (in terms of value) or really up that third piece in order to have it make sense for Seattle.
While I'd also clearly rather move Bleis, Yorke and other pieces as well, I will say that there only a few even somewhat realistic pieces I'd trade Mayer for, but Gilbert and his 4 years of control remaining is one of them.
Why are the Mariners trading Logan Gilbert while he has 4 years of control left and they are squarely in the contending window?
Which begs the question -- who are the SP from non-contending teams that should be targeted? Dylan Cease? Mitch Keller?
Which begs the question -- who are the SP from non-contending teams that should be targeted? Dylan Cease? Mitch Keller?
Too many starters and need a bat. Maybe Verdugo isn't enough, but they listened on offers for him at the deadline. 4 years of control is why the prospect price is so high.
Just to add to this, they already have Castillo and Kirby fronting the rotation. They also signed Robbie Ray to a massive deal, whom I believe is supposed to be back around Memorial Day(ish) next season. Not to mention Woo and Miller at the back end of the rotation.
Admittedly, something like a move of lets say Yorke for Miller is much more realistic, but the overall point being while Gilbert isn't available so to speak, I can't imagine Bleis or Yorke (much less Mayer) to be considered available, so it'd be a true baseball trade where one team is moving their "not for sale" piece for another team's "not for sale" piece to address deficiencies for both teams. Would Seattle trade Gilbert for Mayer and a sweetener (or something like Bleis, Yorke and Crawford) - honestly despite both checking out on BTV I don't think so, but I also don't think they laugh hysterically in Bloom's face while disconnecting the Zoom session either.
However to @moondog80 point in more names that are probably closer to available (and I wouldn't consider Mayer for any of these guys the way I would Gilbert) - Cease, Keller, possibly Bieber, Braxton Garrett and depending on the cost Edward Cabrera are guys I'd think could be moved and would fit in somewhere between guys reasonably seen as top half of the rotation pieces and those that are improvements of guys at the bottom.
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Rotation
1 Blake Snell (L) - 6yrs $175M
2 Logan Gilbert (R) - Traded for Alex Verdugo, Anthony/Bleis, Nick Yorke
I like this a lot.
1 Blake Snell (L) - 6yrs $175M
2 Logan Gilbert (R) - Traded for Alex Verdugo, Anthony/Bleis, Nick Yorke
I like this a lot.