Lightning and Leafs won yesterday, so the Bs are back down in the WC1 spot for now due to fewer regulation wins than the Leafs (tied in points). The good news is that the Canes just destroyed the Caps tonight, so the Bruins are now up 3 points over the Caps with three games in hand. I expect a lot of bouncing around between A2, A3, and WC1 over the next month with Tampa, Toronto and Boston all trading places.
My pick for the team to avoid in the first round is Carolina. They seem pretty complete overall, having patched up their major weakness from yesteryear (goaltending).
Toronto has goaltending issues, and Tampa is 6th in the East in xGF% (52.4%, 10th overall), only above the Caps (50.1%, 15th overall) and the Rags (27th overall, lol). I'd say the best path is through the Atlantic bracket.