Or even seemingly simple (nothing is actually simple in the NFL) thing of the QB making the right read pre snap and calling for the right protection.
I agree. Would be interested to compare YAC for the various QB's on that list. Obviously YAC is largely dependent on a receiver's ability to make people miss, but part of that is a QB giving the ball to a receiver in stride.Not all "completions" are "accurate." "Adjusted completeion rate" does not seem to take into account completions that can only be completed by the intended receiver stopping or turning and breaking stride.
Newton is 10th in yac average this year among qbs that have started 8+ gamesI agree. Would be interested to compare YAC for the various QB's on that list. Obviously YAC is largely dependent on a receiver's ability to make people miss, but part of that is a QB giving the ball to a receiver in stride.
Thats why you look at it over a long period of time. See if there’s trends.I don't think YAC / completion is a good measure of this. Any stat like that is going to wildly swing based on outlier plays (like a screen that goes for 50 yards or a slant that goes for 75).
Maybe that nulls out the conditional pick in the trade, or lowers a 6th to a 7th?Pats have released I. Ford.
Wouldn’t this also depend significantly based on the design of the offense? A team looking downfield is going to expect greater YAC. Brady doing quick 4-6 yard pick ups (in the Patriots offense) is going to expect fewer. Or is that not right?There might be a way to look at a QB's YAC - not his obviously, but his receivers. And it turns out that pro-football-reference does have that data, but only for the last few years. If you look at it, even though a QB's receivers change, if he consistently has better YAC numbers than other guys, that probably means it's not about the receivers, but rather that the QB has a high level of ability hitting receivers in stride, as @Saints Rest talks about.
So from 2018-2020...YAC per completion
Brady
2018: 2,234 completed air yards, 2,121 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 2,233 completed air yards, 1,824 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2020: 2,022 completed air yards, 1,278 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 4.2 YAC per completion
Mahomes
2018: 2,489 completed air yards, 2,608 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,076 completed air yards, 1,955 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.1 YAC per completion
2020: 1,884 completed air yards, 1,613 YAC, 4.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.5 YAC per completion
Brees
2018: 2,165 completed air yards, 1,827 YAC, 4.4 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2019: 1,488 completed air yards, 1,491 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.3 YAC per completion
2020: 1,068 completed air yards, 1,128 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.2 YAC per completion
Wilson
2018: 2,063 completed air yards, 1,385 YAC, 4.8 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2019: 2,402 completed air yards, 1,708 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2020: 1,858 completed air yards, 1,358 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
Rodgers
2018: 2,308 completed air yards, 2,134 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 1,993 completed air yards, 2,009 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,475 completed air yards, 1,625 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 6.2 YAC per completion
Goff
2018: 2,562 completed air yards, 2,126 YAC, 4.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,388 completed air yards, 2,250 YAC, 3.8 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,403 completed air yards, 1,618 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 6.0 YAC per completion
So what do these numbers tell us? I don't know! haha I mean for sure these other guys have had better receiving options than Brady. FWIW, Newton over the last three years has a 3.7 completed air yards per attempt, and a 5.3 YAC per completion. And this year it's 5.4 YAC per completion, which is substantially better than Brady's 4.2, and he (Cam) is getting that with much worse skill position players. I wonder how much of that is due to a handful of James White or Rex Burkhead screens that eat up huge chunks of YAC.
EDIT: Damn you, @scottyno for posting that while I was doing all this work! ;-)
I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.Cam looked better today and ran the RPO crisply as he had done at the beginning of the season. But I didn't see any evidence of improvement on some fundamental shortcomings - the ball still seems to be taking too much time getting out and without zip. Stidham's TD throw was the best of the day by far - on a line and in stride. Without more accuracy downfield from Cam, a good team will stack the line and impose their will and our drives will stall without heroic execution. 69 yards passing obviously worked gloriously today, but I don't see that as sustainable against the better teams. I do commend Josh's commitment to the offense's strengths and the variations he did show within that narrow framework, but meanwhile the film on those tendencies continues to accumulate.
My guess is the opposite.Wouldn’t this also depend significantly based on the design of the offense? A team looking downfield is going to expect greater YAC. Brady doing quick 4-6 yard pick ups (in the Patriots offense) is going to expect fewer. Or is that not right?
I thought the TD to Harry was good too. Much shorter, obviously, but it was on the money to a guy who was not wide open. OTOH (and to Saints rest's point just above)....He threw a screen to White at White's shins on the opening drive. Pass complete but it made it much more difficult for white to do more than eke out a short gain.I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.
Johnny Foxboro's backup could have hit that TD throw. Dude was wide-open in a 38-0 game with about 7 minutes left. And there was plenty of zip on the TD to Harry.Cam looked better today and ran the RPO crisply as he had done at the beginning of the season. But I didn't see any evidence of improvement on some fundamental shortcomings - the ball still seems to be taking too much time getting out and without zip. Stidham's TD throw was the best of the day by far - on a line and in stride.
Bombs can be big YAC plays, too - if a guy gets behind the D, catches a 30-yard pass, and then runs another 40 yards for a TD, that's going to have a big effect on the YAC numbers. In a perfect world, you'd want a stat that reflected how often a pass that could have set the receiver up for YAC actually did; beyond a certain point, the actual amount of YAC is going to depend more on the receiver, and not every pass is a realistic opportunity for YAC (you mention a couple routes that typically aren't). There are so many confounding variables here, I don't think the commonly-available statistics really capture what we want them to.My guess is the opposite.
If you have the ball on the 50, and throw a bomb into the end zone, YAC is zero. If you throw a well-executed screen, YAC will be 50+.
Furthermore, a slant is meant to travel a few yards thru the air and then pick up additional yards via YAC if you can hit the receiver in stride.
Regardless, it seems to me that most YAC is driven, either by design or by execution, with hitting the receiver in stride and in space. Button hooks and corner fades will typically have less YAC as they expect a defender close to the receiver. A screen or crossing route that gets to the receiver in the right place at the right time is expected to create some space that the receiver can leverage for Max YAC.
That requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.The problem is, which Cam do we get in the playoffs? The dude is so hot and cold from game to game, he can't be trusted.
BUF and MIA play H2H. Assume for a minute that MIA wins.That requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.
Pats have to win out. I don't think 9-7 gets in, even if the loss is to the Rams and they win the 3 remaining divisional games. They have to jump 3 teams and are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 4/5 games remaining. Winning out would get them to 10-6, 8-4 conference record, 5-1 division record. They are going to need out of town help.
3. Buffalo: 8-3 @ San Fran (in Arizona), Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ New England, Miami
4. Tennessee 8-4: @ Jacksonville, Detroit, @ Green Bay, @ Houston
5. Cleveland: 9-3 Baltimore, @ NYG, @ NYJ, Pittsburgh
6. Miami 8-4 Kansas City, New England, @ Vegas, @ Buffalo
7. Indy: 8-4 @ Vegas, Houston, @ Pittsburgh, Jacksonville
8. Vegas: 7-5 Indy, LAC, Miami @ Denver
9. Baltimore 6-5, Dallas, @ Cleveland, Jacksonville, NYG, @ Cincy
10. New England 6-6 @ LAR, @ Miami, Buffalo, NYJ
They have to jump 3 teams to get into a wild card spot. Miami looks vulnerable, but Indy/Tennessee, Vegas and Baltimore seem to have clear paths to 10 wins. They really could've used that Jets win yesterday that was stolen by Gregg Williams.
Anyways, I think winning out is a long shot. The Rams are a tough match up for the Patriots. I think the D can probably reasonable contain Goff, but the Rams have a stout defense that is top 5 against both the run and pass. That'll be tough sledding for an offense that relies so much on the run. The Patriots will probably need the D/ST to score or set up short fields for the offense.
Maybe we should have a thread dedicated to keeping up with playoff probabilities and stuff of that nature, but I think we might actually have a better chance at the division than a wildcard. Assuming Pats win out, they would win the division with just a Dolphins loss to the Chiefs and a Bills loss to the Dolphins and any other gameThat requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.
Pats have to win out. I don't think 9-7 gets in, even if the loss is to the Rams and they win the 3 remaining divisional games. They have to jump 3 teams and are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 4/5 games remaining. Winning out would get them to 10-6, 8-4 conference record, 5-1 division record. They are going to need out of town help.
3. Buffalo: 8-3 @ San Fran (in Arizona), Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ New England, Miami
4. Tennessee 8-4: @ Jacksonville, Detroit, @ Green Bay, @ Houston
5. Cleveland: 9-3 Baltimore, @ NYG, @ NYJ, Pittsburgh
6. Miami 8-4 Kansas City, New England, @ Vegas, @ Buffalo
7. Indy: 8-4 @ Vegas, Houston, @ Pittsburgh, Jacksonville
8. Vegas: 7-5 Indy, LAC, Miami @ Denver
9. Baltimore 6-5, Dallas, @ Cleveland, Jacksonville, NYG, @ Cincy
10. New England 6-6 @ LAR, @ Miami, Buffalo, NYJ
They have to jump 3 teams to get into a wild card spot. Miami looks vulnerable, but Indy/Tennessee, Vegas and Baltimore seem to have clear paths to 10 wins. They really could've used that Jets win yesterday that was stolen by Gregg Williams.
Anyways, I think winning out is a long shot. The Rams are a tough match up for the Patriots. I think the D can probably reasonable contain Goff, but the Rams have a stout defense that is top 5 against both the run and pass. That'll be tough sledding for an offense that relies so much on the run. The Patriots will probably need the D/ST to score or set up short fields for the offense.
We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then.Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.
Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:
Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
Alternately, there is NO SUCH THING as a guaranteed win in Miami, and the Rams and Bills are pretty close to toss-ups (at best). Maybe their expected W-L in the last 4 games is like 2.75-1.25 (1.0 for Jets, 0.75 for Miami, 0.5 for Buffalo and the Rams), but even that seems generous. In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then
Alternately, I want the Patriots to make the playoffs so I’m going to skew any numbers I see to make it seem more likely.Alternately, there is NO SUCH THING as a guaranteed win in Miami, and the Rams and Bills are pretty close to toss-ups (at best). Maybe their expected W-L in the last 4 games is like 2.75-1.25 (1.0 for Jets, 0.75 for Miami, 0.5 for Buffalo and the Rams), but even that seems generous. In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.
At best they are 50/50 to beat Buffalo alone. I'm not sure anyone would argue the percentages I laid out.We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then.
While undoubtedly true, it is equally true that the other QB's on the roster can be trusted even less. Unless Tom Brady pulls a LeGarrette Blount and forces himself to get cut by the Bucs, the team is riding the Cam bus all the way to wherever it takes them.The problem is, which Cam do we get in the playoffs? The dude is so hot and cold from game to game, he can't be trusted.
They could also go 1-3 or 0-4. I mean, the Jets almost beat Vegas yesterday.In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.
FWIW ...Maybe we should have a thread dedicated to keeping up with playoff probabilities and stuff of that nature, but I think we might actually have a better chance at the division than a wildcard. Assuming Pats win out, they would win the division with just a Dolphins loss to the Chiefs and a Bills loss to the Dolphins and any other game
I think these percentages are pretty spot on, given what we know today. As we should all be keenly aware, "Any Given Sunday". Even the Jets. Its really difficult to come up with an NFL game that is much greater than 85% likelihood of winning. Last week's Saints game against zero NFL-ready QBs is about as close as you'll get to a sure win, and it took a pandemic to give us that.Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.
Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:
Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
Meyer should have caught that. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but wasn't it a bit high? It still should have been caught and it was a good throw - just not as on the money as you'd like IIRC.I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.
Didn't say it was a tough pass made under dire conditions. It was the best pass of the day for the Pats in the context of the ease and quickness in getting the ball out and for the perfect placement to a receiver moving laterally. A professional pass. After watching Cam needing to load up to get a pass out, missing high or low on wide open receivers all season, it was striking to be reminded once again how easy it should look. Yes, put Stid under pressure, tighten the score, etc. and the pass might look differently. I'm reacting to what happened.Johnny Foxboro's backup could have hit that TD throw. Dude was wide-open in a 38-0 game with about 7 minutes left. And there was plenty of zip on the TD to Harry.
Cam's 14 runs were the most of the year outside of week 1.
Nah, it was a perfect pass. No great effort needed to catch itMeyer should have caught that. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but wasn't it a bit high? It still should have been caught and it was a good throw - just not as on the money as you'd like IIRC.
Cam's hit plenty of sideline comeback routes to Byrd. That's most of Byrd's catches on the season, probably. They have not done much back shoulder stuff, probably because Byrd is the only receiver who plays outside consistently and he is a smurf.I stand corrected.
But 1-2 passes that impress out of 19 PA might be indicative of his current abilities and why the passing game might continue to struggle. Where are the sideline comeback routes? The back shoulder throws? His physical limitations are the O's limitations. I will concede that those 1-2 throws are a step up and maybe we're seeing the beginnings of a return to health that might enlarge the playbook.
This would be so Belichick to break this out in the final four games.Now that we've seen the wildcat with Cam split out wide, how long before we see him lined up at TE with Stidham at QB?
According to the Athletic they also have a 2.5% chance at a top ten pick. Could go either way, but I'm loving the way the kids are playing and think it's great for them to get some high consequence game experience.Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.
Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:
Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
Looking back over the last 3 drafts, we have:According to the Athletic they also have a 2.5% chance at a top ten pick. Could go either way, but I'm loving the way the kids are playing and think it's great for them to get some high consequence game experience.
https://theathletic.com/2228598/2020/12/07/nfl-draft-order-projections/
Yah. He is a great quoteSay what we will about his season on the field, but I've really enjoyed his personality off the field and with his teamates
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1336321695817199618
“@DougKyed: Cam Newton: ”Like I said, it’s not the sexiest thing to see a quarterback throw for 69 yards.“”
https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2020/12/patriots-qb-cam-newtons-gameday-rituals-include-lucid-dreaming-breaking-vegan-for-pregame-meal.htmlThat’s the physical and nutritional side. As for the mental side, Newton says he works in meditation and lucid dreaming, a form of dreaming where an individual is aware they are dreaming.
“I’m so big into tapping into a visualization side meditation,” Newton said. “Lucid dreaming trying to manifest things. You’ve kind of gotta tap into that side, to see yourself winning. If you know that side of you, then nothing else can affect you. This is up to you to paint your own picture on your canvas.”
Rob Gronkowski might have to say something about that. 69 yards, you know that means ?!?!?