2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
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Couldn't stop thinking last night about what a team they are now. Of course there will be some stinkers and small brush fires through the season, but they were moving like an amoeba on both ends all night. Noboby owns creating the shot, and nobody needs to force. On the other end, everyone owns doing their job. Guys were rotating extremely well. Everyone is fully engaged.
Post game comments from a few guya just reinforced that impression. Kemba talking about everyone encouraging him, having his back. Same with Brown. After forcing one shot in an otherwise excellent game, Kemba told him to keep doing what he's doing.
There will be rotation changes, adjustments, etc. But despite having some redundancy here and there, the guys legit don't seem to give a shit about getting theirs. Fewer walk year considerations, better chemistry, and a more experienced CBS should help. This year's diminutive team leader plays defense and isn't a fucking drama queen.
After two games, I am absolutely psyched to watch this season unfold.
Post game comments from a few guya just reinforced that impression. Kemba talking about everyone encouraging him, having his back. Same with Brown. After forcing one shot in an otherwise excellent game, Kemba told him to keep doing what he's doing.
There will be rotation changes, adjustments, etc. But despite having some redundancy here and there, the guys legit don't seem to give a shit about getting theirs. Fewer walk year considerations, better chemistry, and a more experienced CBS should help. This year's diminutive team leader plays defense and isn't a fucking drama queen.
After two games, I am absolutely psyched to watch this season unfold.
Giving Brown an extension after last year also should make Tatum more comfortable that he's going to get paid, which should keep him from forcing stuff.
I suspect that you're right. Plus last year's weirdness was contagious. Even the guys not starting down FA were going off the rails here and there. Leadership and chemistry just weren't there. There are simply fewer risk factors now.
This is where I’m at.
It’s obviously easy to be preoccupied with who is better, but Kemba appears to be on board with the multi-year team development project in a way that Voldemort simply was not.
And that’s appearing to have cascading effects.
There’s better chemistry, yeah. But more specifically, this allows for Jaylen to step up and be a “big kid,” which I think he was chafing to do underneath the “elder statesman” schtick if whatshisname.
It’s worth remembering also that Jaylen was the one who expressed concerns with what would happen to the soul of the team when they traded away IT4. He really gets this stuff, and now he has an opportunity to foster it, and his effort level and play suggests that he wants to reestablish that Celtics spirit.
That, plus Jayson is a bit closer to stepping up to that level. And now they have some exciting youth developing under a range of relatively experienced leadership at different stages of their careers bringing each other all along in, dare I say it, the process.
They lost talent, but they have put together a really exciting and highly enjoyable project aimed at becoming a really good team in the future. That’s fun.
Also: Kanter fucking rules. And we’re having a blast with the new guys who are, what? A late 1st, two seconds, an undrafted guy and we’ve barely even seen the top pick. This is awesome.
Really like this team so far. Kemba has some serious talent, Jaylen looks ready for a break out year, Haywood's better, Time Lord is ready to contribute, and the Kyrie cloud has been lifted
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Of course he did. Smarf is essentially the Terminator in basketball form.
View: https://twitter.com/CelticsContent/status/1188268864330711043?s=20
I agree with this and the first guy that comes to mind is Ray Allen when he first arrived. The thing is that we aren’t overloaded with talent while relying on several inexperienced players in our front court rotation. I would have preferred using Kemba’s money for a cheaper (and younger) alternative at his position plus a frontcourt player. Brogdon and Looney would have been ideal and I’m not even a big Looney guy.
where were you in June when I was banging the Malcolm Brogdon drum?
and wanted to use the extra $ on a young big like Looney.
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HRB, much like yourself, I like Kembaya, but felt the cap space could have been better allocated and timelines matched up
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I'm no cap expert, but doesn't this give them potentially more flexibility in years 3 and 4? They'll be over the cap regardless once Tatum gets paid. Isn't a max salary slot with a year or two left a better asset than a rookie max/near max (Brogdon) slot? As long as Kemba doesn't completely fall off a cliff, he can be the outgoing salary in a deal for a younger, or better fit, max player in 2 years when this becomes Jaylen/Jayson's team.
Sure. If you think teams with a younger max player would be willing to move him for the back end of Kemba's enormous contract.
Well, yeah, it would obviously be Kemba + assets of some nature, similar to the Chris Paul deal but not such a straight salary dump barring catastrophe for Walker. The point is that for a team operating over the cap, Walker can match a higher salary than Brogdon. I believe (again, just really learning the nuances of the cap) it could allow them to easily keep a 3rd max player alongside Tatum and Brown, instead of having to trade multiple players to match salaries, or having to clear everyone except the Jays off the roster to make cap space to actually sign a FA.
My favorite early season dumb stat.
The Celtics lead the league with the lowest rate of turnovers at 11%, last year's lowest TOV% was 12.2%
The Celtics lead the league in Opponent TOV% at 21.4%, last year's highest was 16%
The Celtics TOV% differential is +10.4, last year's leader was OKC at +2.4
Obviously unsustainable, but if they continue to more reasonably take care of the ball and create turnovers, I expect a very nice regular season at the least.
The Celtics lead the league with the lowest rate of turnovers at 11%, last year's lowest TOV% was 12.2%
The Celtics lead the league in Opponent TOV% at 21.4%, last year's highest was 16%
The Celtics TOV% differential is +10.4, last year's leader was OKC at +2.4
Obviously unsustainable, but if they continue to more reasonably take care of the ball and create turnovers, I expect a very nice regular season at the least.
Not to go full "the Celtics should have done this instead" mode, because in June I thought Charlotte would pay up to keep Kemba. I also had zero clue the Hornets would pay so much for Rozier to replace him. So what do I know?
The general idea was to line up the Jay's peak years with a PG that distributes more, plays better defense, is a bit younger and can be an efficient 3rd scoring option PLUS add frontcourt help.
If you replace Danny's Plan A: Kemba ($35MM) & Kanter ($5MM) with Brogdon (4yrs @ $23MM per), Looney (3yrs @ $7MM per) & Aminu (3yrs @ $10MM per) you'd have the ballast to do whatever you need down the road.
The Celtics not only wanted all-NBA talent in KW but high character/good teammates. Kembaya/Kanter seem to be off the charts in that department.
My guess is that the thinking was that they wanted to give the core a chance if Hayward came back healthy, and they needed another elite scorer to do it. If they went the Brogdon road, you're basically punting on contention, since that just isn't enough top-end scoring in the next 1-2 years. The league is wide-open right now (yes, I know Clippers, but there are major health questions even there), and if you're only a center away, you really have to go for it to some degree. They retain the option to flip Kemba+assets into a more compatible piece later if necessary.
As you mention, character also matters, and we're already seeing nice early returns on defense just from everyone trying and not hating each other.
My #2 = BOS = 4th in ORbg% at 25.3%. Who would have thought a Brad Stevens coached team would be 4th in the league?
Note that Grant Williams is #10 in the league at 12.1% for those who have played over 40 minutes total this season.
Brogdon is 4th in the NBA in PER right now. However, he's doing this for an IND team that really isn't very good.
The Cs were rumoured to be in on Brogdon until Kemba became available. My completely WAG guess is that Brad's system works best with a PG who can create and score: i.e., IT4, Kyrie, and now Kemba.
Also, the Cs wanted to hedge a bit against the scenario where JB and JT have made progress but haven't made the leap to where they would be forced to find their own shots in the 4th quarter of a big game.
Having Brogdon's length and defense alongside Smart, JB, JT, and GH would have been fun to watch.
I also doubt Looney would have come here to be part of a center rotation and one of the top priorities this year for the Cs has to be to develop TL.
Also, Tatum is working on reinventing his game, with - thus far - mixed results. That project may work better alongside Kemba, as it takes some pressure of Tatum to be immediately successful.
Money talks and we would have had money for Looney. I can't believe I'm writing this since I feel he is soooooo overrated by many......but is an excellent role player with the right teammates around him which he has had in the past and would also have had here. Looney's presence wouldn't have affected TL's 12-14 mpg in any way.
https://theathletic.com/1328117/2019/10/27/celtics-by-the-numbers-what-do-the-early-season-stats-tell-us-about-this-team/?source=dailyemail
Some interesting things:
Some interesting things:
Also, Tatum's shot chart is what we want to see, just needs to finish better:
Yeah, I watched Indy play Cleveland a couple days ago. Brogdon was good, but definitely not someone who can be a #1 option. Brad's system aside, I think the Celtics just feel that Kemba is a way better player, and you can generally find a way to make talent work as long as you don't have a somewhat insane asshole from NJ actively sabotaging things.
I'd argue that Kemba, even in his prime, wasn't the #1 option on a winning playoff team but this doesn't even apply as our PG can be a 2 or a 3 or even a 4 with all of our high usage wings on the roster. We've discussed how small PG's have fallen off cliffs once they hit the magical age 30 and Kemba is a prime candidate to do same especially with him having so much mileage on him. Small guards who exert maximum effort throughout their 20's tend to get slowed by wear and tear and/or injuries once they near or hit 30. I want to see Kemba minus 1-2 steps about as much as I wanted to see Isaiah post-playoff injury.
Maybe Kemba is the better player this year......when you factor in both sides of the ball I don't agree but I can see a case being made but it isn't only about this season. Even if Brogdon isn't better this year, I feel it will be universally agreed upon by seasons end that he is but that's neither here nor there, he almost certainly will be the better player by next season. Also, he's 27 but with a ton fewer miles on him. I don't think people realized how awesome Brogdon was last season due to Giannis overshadowing him.
Let er rip!
An even/measured poster like yourself going bad on Ky takes away my Net schadenfreude guilt
Why are you more willing to trust Brogdon’s actually anomalous season in a contract year than Kemba’s season that was more or less identical to his prior 4 years?
The PG hitting the wall at 30 thing is not a hard and fast rule. And there is no way Kemba can be compared to Isaiah Thomas, who was a very different player altogether despite some superficial similarities.
The problems last season had little to do with "too much talent". They had bench players that wanted to start while playing for a contract. And one of their starters was actively sabotaging the team while whining that he wanted to be viewed as a leader, which everyone now agrees was at least 80% of the problem.
Maybe the Celtics had viable alternatives to Kemba. And with any max contract player there is risk. Being over the cap is not so much a problem, but being over the luxury tax apron can be. But there is also risk of not adding good players when they become available. It would suck to see the 76'ers implode and Giannis get hurt and a dark horse team not named Boston get out of the East.
The problems last season had little to do with "too much talent". They had bench players that wanted to start while playing for a contract. And one of their starters was actively sabotaging the team while whining that he wanted to be viewed as a leader, which everyone now agrees was at least 80% of the problem.
Maybe the Celtics had viable alternatives to Kemba. And with any max contract player there is risk. Being over the cap is not so much a problem, but being over the luxury tax apron can be. But there is also risk of not adding good players when they become available. It would suck to see the 76'ers implode and Giannis get hurt and a dark horse team not named Boston get out of the East.
For one, because it wasn't anolalous at all. Brogdon has been making leaps in his game each year he's been in the league similar to what I've see with Jaylen.
Nothing is hard and fast......but if you're looking for some things which are close you can look at lower body/foot injuries of players 7-2+ and post-30 decline of guards 6-feet and lower once they lose a step. The elite of the elite are the ones who have bucked this trend since they were already so far ahead of their counterparts in their overall games......someone like Chris Paul is an obvious exception. It is something that shouldn't be ignored when evaluating a player.
This is why being a GM is hard. You have those clear trends regarding smaller PGs, but you're never evaluating smaller PGs in general: you have a specific one in front of you that you have to make a call on. I agree that Kemba is a risk, but if there's one area in which Ainge/Zarren have earned the benefit of the doubt, it's wrt evaluating talent at the NBA level (as opposed to college).
They were never going to give IT the Brinks truck (I will always maintain that that decision was made during the Wizards series, regardless of injury, when they saw him get relentlessly hunted on D). They decided to back the truck up for Kemba. Clearly they think there's a difference there, and that Kemba will maintain his value. Guess we'll find out.
I really hope that these alternate jerseys are a sick joke. They're hideous!
View: https://twitter.com/whistlesports/status/1188876056863879170?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/whistlesports/status/1188876056863879170?s=21
If your point is that he doesn't know how to win, he was the #1 option on a winning college team (I know I'm not telling you anything you don't know). I think the difference is that he's done it where he didn't have a choice - but he knows that in order to win at this level he's going to have to be more of a traditional PG (in the facilitating sense) with the talent around, and maybe take the last shot within the context of the moment - versus a recent point guard who decided that it was his mantle to take those shots regardless of the context/defense. I understand the now/versus aging thought you are expressing - but I don't see him relying on a particular skill that is going to fade on him. He doesn't rely on elite speed to do what he does, or hops, or the like - so I can see a scenario where he ages reasonably well. He may well struggle with the (healthy) John Walls who will blow by him as he ages, but that won't prevent him from contributing within the team framework - especially given Stevens preference for rotating bodies and playing a deep bench. That could be a concern for roster building, but that's a slightly different direction (and one that Ainge has shown a willingness to account for with players like Allen, Bradley, Smart, etc.).
Forgive me if I've missed your over arching point.
This is the Boston Celtics for crying out loud not the Charlotte Hornets
Red more than rolled over on this one...
I place absolutely zero weight on a player “knowing how to win” as that is solely a function of your teammates and the competition. Carmelo singlehandedly led Syrscuse to a title and the Nuggets to the WC Finals yet when he was shipped to NY with his abysmal teammates he suddenly “wasn’t a winner.” We see the same thing happening with Kyrie “not being a winner” despite taking over and winning his team games in the EC Finals and then later The Finals. So no, not what I meant at all. /endrant
If I haven’t been clear I don’t dislike Kemba I just felt we’d be better off going in a direction that would better align with the future direction of the team. It seems that I like Brogdon more than others but adding a good young role player like a Looney for our frontcourt, even if it’s a slight overpay, makes it the way I’d go......especially when I see Theis and RWill exhibiting their limitations out there.
for the record (and it exists somewhere on this forum) I was +1 on Beverly. Would have loved to have seen beverly / smart backcourt. i didn't have ideas on how to use any other dollars (minus resigning Al).
Re: Knowing how to win -- I don't agree with this. There are players who just are chameleon like in their ability to provide what the team needs in a given moment. (To be clear I'm not saying this is or is not Kemba, only that those players exist). They don't always "single handedly" succeed in taking their team over the top, but they know how to win in the sense they adapt their game/role to be what is most valuable then. But as it's not your point, I'll leave it there.
Re: Kemba vs Brogdon, etc. -- I think the future direction of the team is more dependent on a number of players - and probably others that aren't present yet. The obvious common denominator of the dependent players is youth. As mature as some of our core "youth" is - there is a need for positive veteran leadership. In my opinion, there was a drain of veteran leadership on the team. Horford & Baynes specifically, to a lesser degree Morris (mostly via his imbuing toughness/intensity into the team). I don't want to litigate Kyrie again (other than I think he was a net negative on the leadership front). I think Haywire would ordinarily be one of those leaders, but I don't think you can do it if you aren't performing, and he was in the awkward position of being played when his output wasn't justifying it - hard to lead from the back there. I think team building is complicated, and with some combinations of talent it is less important. But when chemistry goes awry, it can cripple a team. I think Kemba's personality in this case (while management tries to reset the tenor of the locker room) is as much an asset as the things he brings physically - at least in the short term. I think Kanter was also chosen for similar reasons (despite obvious on court flaws/limitations). Don't get me wrong - if Ainge could have gotten his hands on Davis at center, he would have - chemistry be damned. But in the absence of what he might have viewed as a perfect on-court fit, I can see where valuing good veteran locker room guys to stabilize a very young/inexperienced team was a priority. In that context, Kemba may be the right organizational fit - even if you are 100% correct regarding the on-court assessment of Kemba, Brogdon, et al.
And if you don't believe in chemistry either, then ignore this post
Can you name a few? That's the challenge with this---name a few guys who are not the best players, but who clearly "help the team win" in a big way consistently.
I personally do think there are guys who are losers---who don't care much/enough about winning. To the Carmelo point, I think he became much more focused on his own game in Denver and then with the Knicks. And there's plenty of empty calorie scoring/rebound guys who don't pass, move wtihout the ball, or defend well and are not winning players.
Then there are guys like Marcus Smart or Michael Cooper (to go way apart in eras) who do a lot of winning things. But those guys can't carry a mediocre team, either---you simply need talent to win. As much as I dislike Kyrie---and he may prove to be a loser in the end---that guy is a spectacularly talented alpha who we know for a fact you can win with. That's a rare thing.
there was a lot of discussion here on how to use the $$$ the week before July 1 signing of Kemba:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/poll-what-do-with-the-celtics-cap-space.27569/
I half-heartedly came around to Kemba a few days prior to signing. My concern is still the same as HRBs: age, size, mileage, timeline, last 2yrs of max deal.
I recall the board kicked around Pat Beverly, Satoransky, Bryant, Brogdon, Looney, Aminu, etc
and Sabonis/Turner if available
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I'll give it some thought - but obviously we lost one to Philly in Horford. He's a chameleon for whatever his team needs. High BB IQ, playing multiple positions (even when it wore his body down playing center against the bigger ones), focuses on D when that's what the team needs, developed his 3 point shot (after leaving Atlanta) to be able to do that when the team needed it, set great picks for his teammates, run the floor. Just an "average guy" who just did what the team needed on a nightly basis. But for injuries to Kyrie and Haywire he probably has a couple of finals appearances, and possibly more against the Warrior juggernaut.
Robert Horry is probably another one. It'll poke at my brain until I think of a couple of more.
I'd be willing to bet a whole lot that Grant Williams is one.
Is Horford a “winner” or is he just a really really good player? His career playoff record is 48-63.
Criminally early to be posting stats (at all), but I wanted to keep an eye on the NBA stats hustle board throughout the season, and in particular, deflections.
Right now, Tatum is leading the team in deflections, with ten. Robert Williams is second with seven, and Grant Williams and Kemba are tied for third with six a piece. Marcus only has five, though he was fourth in the league in deflections last year (and there's your implied SSS warning).
Obviously Rob and Grant are doing it in substantially fewer minutes than Tatum or Kemba. (For reference, Patrick Beverly leads the league with 19 in four games so far).
Those deflection numbers will be something to watch for both of them and for anyone worried about Rob's ability to stay on the floor. A lot of his miscues can be covered up if he generates a ton of extra possessions. And for a team that had a front court that was middling at generating deflections last year (Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, and Al Horford say hello), extra deflections have the potential to turn this into a team that gets out on the break in a way last year's team rarely did.
Anyway, just something to watch.
Right now, Tatum is leading the team in deflections, with ten. Robert Williams is second with seven, and Grant Williams and Kemba are tied for third with six a piece. Marcus only has five, though he was fourth in the league in deflections last year (and there's your implied SSS warning).
Obviously Rob and Grant are doing it in substantially fewer minutes than Tatum or Kemba. (For reference, Patrick Beverly leads the league with 19 in four games so far).
Those deflection numbers will be something to watch for both of them and for anyone worried about Rob's ability to stay on the floor. A lot of his miscues can be covered up if he generates a ton of extra possessions. And for a team that had a front court that was middling at generating deflections last year (Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, and Al Horford say hello), extra deflections have the potential to turn this into a team that gets out on the break in a way last year's team rarely did.
Anyway, just something to watch.
This is a solid point. Kyle Lowry signed a 3 year, $90,000,000 extension going into his age 31 season, and Toronto just added an additional year to pay him $30,000,000 in his age 34 season. Mike Conley was still good last year in his age 31 season after returning from injury, and was traded going into his age 32 season and it's not like the Grizzlies had to staple assests to the deal in order to move him. Both Lowry and Conley finished in the top 30 in RPM and their traditional stats didn't indicate significant declines. If Kemba opts into his 4th year and falls off at age 32, he's a $38,000,000 expiring contract, which would be a useful chunk of salary for a trade.
I wouldn't have been disappointed if the Celtics had used Kemba's money on a Brogdon/Looney combination, I see that argument, that said I think singing Kemba was kind of a hedge against the Celtics core players potentially stagnating. I would guess that the Celtics front office felt like Kemba would be more capable than Brogdon in carrying this Celtics team into the playoffs if one or more of Brown, Tatum and Hayward stagnated/got injured/regressed this season.
Are those uniforms an ode to the Boston Yanks football team?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Yanks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Yanks
The discussion of Kemba vs Brogdon, or Kemba vs Beverley is interesting, assuming they would be willing to come at the right price. But if you want someone younger that Kemba to grow with Tatum and Brown, you've got Tre Waters from this year's draft and a whole slew of point guards in next year's draft, e.g. Tre Jones, who should be available with the Celtics' or Milwaukee pick.
Or you could get Dennis Smith Jr. for nothing or Colin Sexton or Elie Okobo for not much more than that, as a reclamation project.
Or you could get Dennis Smith Jr. for nothing or Colin Sexton or Elie Okobo for not much more than that, as a reclamation project.