from an ESPN article: "And, for what it's worth, Boston's projected win total only dipped a single game at Caesars Sportsbook -- from 87.5 to 86.5. "
That does seem a little odd - if you assume Mookie + Price will be ~8 WAR this year, can they cobble together ~7 WAR from Verdugo and the handful of other signings they wouldn't have made but for this trade? Seems kinda difficult - say Verdugo at ~2 WAR, someone like Holt at ~1.5 WAR, 5th starter TBD at ~1 WAR and that still only gets you only a little over half of the production Mookie and Price would have provided. Maybe Graterol provides major league value immediately and Verdugo improves more than expected but it seems like a stretch.from an ESPN article: "And, for what it's worth, Boston's projected win total only dipped a single game at Caesars Sportsbook -- from 87.5 to 86.5. "
You don't know that. It's an inference based on their deciding they didn't want to pay Betts. HOLT would get a trifle of Betts' money and would help to mollify people like me. I can't believe I'm the only one. Plus, HOLT is very useful.You are aware this means simply nothing to the current ownership, right?
Lines should already have been hammered out to some extent - it's been known Mookie was gone for a while now, people should already have been betting the wins down prior to the official news.That does seem a little odd - if you assume Mookie + Price will be ~8 WAR this year, can they cobble together ~7 WAR from Verdugo and the handful of other signings they wouldn't have made but for this trade? Seems kinda difficult - say Verdugo at ~2 WAR, someone like Holt at ~1.5 WAR, 5th starter TBD at ~1 WAR and that still only gets you only a little over half of the production Mookie and Price would have provided. Maybe Graterol provides major league value immediately and Verdugo improves more than expected but it seems like a stretch.
Well let's be fair. He is probably in the top 2,000 baseball players in the world.Also, Rusney Castillo is not good at baseball.
Lin and Holt's CF experience is a very small sample size, with Holt playing a handful of games more at the position.The bench seems like it's shaping up to be
Plawecki (C)
Chavis (1B/2B)
RHH outfielder TK
Which leaves one spot (unless they go with 12 pitchers, in which case it's two spots). I gotta think Jonathan Arauz has first crack at it, since they lose him if he doesn't make the team. Then there's Tzu-Wei Lin, who, unlike Holt, can play CF. Marco Hernandez is still in the organization, too, along with CJ Chatham.
I guess they could bring back Holt just because they like him, but I don't think infield depth is at the top of our worry list. Ideally, your fourth bench spot would give you another outfield option in case Verdugo needs to take it easy because of his back. I know Holt can play corner OF in a pinch, but I'd be curious about guys like Brad Miller (who has a ton of position versatility), Domingo Santana, and Cameron Maybin.
Connection? I can see the Baseball Karma Gods wanting to shit on overly gleeful Yankee fans, I guess.Interesting that this is announced after Mookie is traded.
Paxton out 3 to 4 months with back surgery
Do you honestly think that if this was announced last week that it would have any bearing on Betts getting traded? More than likely he showed up in Tampa today with his back barking at him and got a test that revealed something requiring surgery.Interesting that this is announced after Mookie is traded.
Paxton out 3 to 4 months with back surgery
Excellent, when Chris Sale shows up healthy and the Yankees lose an OF or two, they can trade us Jasson Dominguez and Kevin Alcantra for Sale and Verdugo.Interesting that this is announced after Mookie is traded.
Paxton out 3 to 4 months with back surgery
Now? No.Shouldn't some of this new found financial flexibility go to trying to sign Devers to a long term deal?
Liverpool still has Firmino. It was Philippe Coutinho they sold to Barca for the equivalent of $144 million. But your point stands.It's not like John Henry hasn't had a record of bringing the Sox success. Four titles in fifteen years is something that just about any team in any sport would love to have. And being a fan of soccer, I have a somewhat similar situation to fall back on, and surprise it's a John Henry-owned team. Liverpool was forced to sell one of the best players in the world, Roberto Firmino, to Barcelona, and a lot of people wondered if Liverpool would just simply become just another selling team when the big clubs called. Now they have the largest lead in Premier League history, are the champions of Europe (and the World), and look to go from strength to strength.
No way they bat this kid leadoff.Lineup
Verdugo(L) RF
Bogaerts(R) SS
Devers(L) 3B
Martinez(R) DH
Benintendi(L) LF
Moreland(L) 1B
Chavis(R) 2B
Vazquez(R) C
Bradley(L) CF
I agree that that's a million tons of pressure to put on the guy. So...given that Benintendi was pretty bad in that spot last year, who would you bat leadoff? There don't really seem to be any good options.No way they bat this kid leadoff.
"Welcome to Boston, guy who will forever be referred to as the person living in Mookie's shadow, let's help you settle right in."
Batting 1st | 69 | 69 | 332 | 286 | 47 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 67 | .276 | .363 | .469 | .831 | 134 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | .321 | 109 |
Batting 2nd | 212 | 208 | 960 | 852 | 134 | 239 | 56 | 8 | 22 | 113 | 25 | 3 | 93 | 171 | .281 | .351 | .442 | .794 | 377 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | .326 | 99 |
Batting 3rd | 47 | 44 | 204 | 178 | 29 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 22 | 35 | .258 | .343 | .393 | .736 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .288 | 86 |
Batting 4th | 20 | 20 | 94 | 78 | 11 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 8 | .295 | .383 | .449 | .832 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .306 | 110 |
Batting 5th | 58 | 54 | 236 | 210 | 23 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 55 | .243 | .322 | .386 | .708 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .305 | 78 |
Batting 6th | 24 | 23 | 99 | 85 | 15 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 | .329 | .398 | .553 | .951 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .375 | 138 |
Batting 7th | 4 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .167 | .444 | .167 | .611 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .333 | 63 |
Batting 8th | 9 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | .167 | .348 | .167 | .514 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .273 | 36 |
Batting 9th | 28 | 24 | 95 | 85 | 15 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | .329 | .372 | .553 | .925 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .388 | 130 |
I mean there's not an ideal leadoff hitter on this team right now. You could do this I guess.No way they bat this kid leadoff.
"Welcome to Boston, guy who will forever be referred to as the person living in Mookie's shadow, let's help you settle right in."
Yeah, maybe a bit premature, so a more emotional suggestion than realistic.Now? No.
In a couple years? Sure, why not.
They've got him for a minimum of four years, the first of which (this season) will be at a salary of less than a million dollars. If I'm Bloom, I'm earmarking JD Martinez's salary allocation for Devers. By the time JD's deal expires (assuming no opt-out next winter), Devers should be in the $20M range anyway. Which is when you really want to get him locked up to a Bogaerts-style deal.
I do wonder how much the Liverpool experience is changing the FSG mentality with the Red Sox. Spreading the cash across the team, building a strong academy and finding value where others miss it are three tenants of the Liverpool renaissance. We just need our Klopp and a few Andy Robertson’s.Liverpool still has Firmino. It was Philippe Coutinho they sold to Barca for the equivalent of $144 million. But your point stands.
Why is Verdugo at ~2 WAR? He did more than that in half a season a year ago, and he's young. If he's healthy, he should be a 4 WAR type player.That does seem a little odd - if you assume Mookie + Price will be ~8 WAR this year, can they cobble together ~7 WAR from Verdugo and the handful of other signings they wouldn't have made but for this trade? Seems kinda difficult - say Verdugo at ~2 WAR, someone like Holt at ~1.5 WAR, 5th starter TBD at ~1 WAR and that still only gets you only a little over half of the production Mookie and Price would have provided. Maybe Graterol provides major league value immediately and Verdugo improves more than expected but it seems like a stretch.
Eduardo first IMO.Shouldn't some of this new found financial flexibility go to trying to sign Devers to a long term deal?
Yeah, I forgot about him.Why is Verdugo at ~2 WAR? He did more than that in half a season a year ago, and he's young. If he's healthy, he should be a 4 WAR type player.
Eduardo first IMO.
Yup, Bloom's job to find those people. It's the way basically all sports except basketball are trending.I do wonder how much the Liverpool experience is changing the FSG mentality with the Red Sox. Spreading the cash across the team, building a strong academy and finding value where others miss it are three tenants of the Liverpool renaissance. We just need our Klopp and a few Andy Robertson’s.
Do you really believe John Henry is making deals based on whether or not fans like players? The exact reason they make a move like trading Betts is that they don't give two shits about what fans think. It's business, not personal, which is why Henry has more money than most of us could ever dream to have.You don't know that. It's an inference based on their deciding they didn't want to pay Betts. HOLT would get a trifle of Betts' money and would help to mollify people like me. I can't believe I'm the only one. Plus, HOLT is very useful.
Actually, now is the PERFECT time to do a Devers extension. Why? Because you can smooth out the AAV hit while you have room under this year's threshold.Now? No.
In a couple years? Sure, why not.
They've got him for a minimum of four years, the first of which (this season) will be at a salary of less than a million dollars. If I'm Bloom, I'm earmarking JD Martinez's salary allocation for Devers. By the time JD's deal expires (assuming no opt-out next winter), Devers should be in the $20M range anyway. Which is when you really want to get him locked up to a Bogaerts-style deal.
Devers cap hit currently is under a million dollars. If they extend him now, it's not likely to be as cheap as the Acuna deal, but even if it was exactly that, that would burn $11.5M of that $20M cap space they just got themselves. Then they should try to lock up ERod and Benintendi in a similar fashion and burn more of that cap space? While they also have a starting pitcher to replace at the very least, and probably want to keep some powder dry for mid-season moves (injury replacements, adding pieces if they're in contention, etc)? Sorry, not buying it as a good idea.Actually, now is the PERFECT time to do a Devers extension. Why? Because you can smooth out the AAV hit while you have room under this year's threshold.
The Acuna contract, for example, is 8/100 -- he's only actually GETTING $1m in 2019, with the annual salary going up to $17m once you're in his free agency years, but the average value, and thus the amount counted towards the luxury tax threshold, is the same each year: $12.5m.
In other words, doing a Devers extension now allows us to use some of this year's cap room to make his cap hit in later years less. It's a perfect use of the space. Same goes for Rodriguez, by the way, and Benintendi if they think he's worth locking up.
I would go with your first one, except with Bogaerts/Devers flipped for L/R alternation:I mean there's not an ideal leadoff hitter on this team right now. You could do this I guess.
Benintendi LF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
Martinez DH
Verdugo RF
Chavis 2B
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
or
Bogaerts SS
Verdugo RF
Devers 3B
Martinez DH
Benintendi LF
Chavis 2B
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
Barring a catastrophe, even without Mookie, this team is going to score a lot of runs. That's not really going to be the issue.I would go with your first one, except with Bogaerts/Devers flipped for L/R alternation:
Benintendi LF
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Martinez DH
Verdugo RF
Chavis 2B
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
That's a pretty respectable lineup there, especially if Chavis progresses in year 2. A little topheavy, but respectable.
Ok, you misunderstood me. I accept the trade of Betts because I understand the benefits of getting under the tax limit. That being done for this year, they at least have the option of making an offer to him next year.Do you really believe John Henry is making deals based on whether or not fans like players? The exact reason they make a move like trading Betts is that they don't give two shits about what fans think. It's business, not personal, which is why Henry has more money than most of us could ever dream to have.
And, for me, watching Brock Holt hug J.D. Martinez after he hits a home run won't, for even a brief moment, mollify the fact this ownership completely botched the opportunity to keep one of the best homegrown talents this organization has seen in several decades.
I think that first lineup is pretty sexy.I mean there's not an ideal leadoff hitter on this team right now. You could do this I guess.
Benintendi LF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
Martinez DH
Verdugo RF
Chavis 2B
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
or
Bogaerts SS
Verdugo RF
Devers 3B
Martinez DH
Benintendi LF
Chavis 2B
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
Holt is also reportedly very popular in the clubhouse and does really great work in the community. Management isn’t going to pay $400 million dollars to mollify the fans, but a few million for all that Holt brings? I’d say more likely than not at this point.Ok, you misunderstood me. I accept the trade of Betts because I understand the benefits of getting under the tax limit. That being done for this year, they at least have the option of making an offer to him next year.
Now, quite separately, BROCKHOLT is both cheap and brings a lot of hustle and warmth to the team. That would be welcome to me.
if Graterol’s future is as a reliever, then his results from last September and October suggest he’s basically ready now, right? Send him down until late May to keep the year of control and manage his workload, then bring him up and use him as an additional high leverage arm.That does seem a little odd - if you assume Mookie + Price will be ~8 WAR this year, can they cobble together ~7 WAR from Verdugo and the handful of other signings they wouldn't have made but for this trade? Seems kinda difficult - say Verdugo at ~2 WAR, someone like Holt at ~1.5 WAR, 5th starter TBD at ~1 WAR and that still only gets you only a little over half of the production Mookie and Price would have provided. Maybe Graterol provides major league value immediately and Verdugo improves more than expected but it seems like a stretch.
That lineup is sexy compared to whose? There’s a lot of good lineups out there.I think that first lineup is pretty sexy.
Let the games begin.
What team do you think might want him and his 3/63 deal as a DH at this point in the offseason? Keep in mind that he and his agent determined it didn't make sense for him to opt out, so that even when teams had more money to spend earlier in the winter, they seemingly didn't think they could beat that on the open market. I think the problem is that BOS would likely have to take on some money (maybe pay it down to 3/45) and then they would be on the hook for $6M dead money in both 2021 and 2022, whereas if you just keep him and he opts out, that dead money goes away.Does JD have a no-trade clause? Why is dumping his salary not an option for getting below the luxury tax limit?
The other option is they like JD and want to keep him. They have the flexibility now to restructure his deal and just lock in the three years.What team do you think might want him and his 3/63 deal as a DH at this point in the offseason? Keep in mind that he and his agent determined it didn't make sense for him to opt out, so that even when teams had more money to spend earlier in the winter, they seemingly didn't think they could beat that on the open market. I think the problem is that BOS would likely have to take on some money (maybe pay it down to 3/45) and then they would be on the hook for $6M dead money in both 2021 and 2022, whereas if you just keep him and he opts out, that dead money goes away.
Also the option really confuses things, you're asking a team to take on a 1/24 deal with an additional 2/39 after that if the season goes badly for JDM. Combine all of that and I think you have your answer, but if BOS is out of it and JDM is having another great season, he can likely be moved mid-season as a rental who will opt out (also that would be better for him as the acquiring team couldn't give him a QO).
I first thought White Sox but looked it up and saw that they signed Encarnacion. And with no Mookie, they need JD's bat more than what they'd likely get back.What team do you think might want him and his 3/63 deal as a DH at this point in the offseason? Keep in mind that he and his agent determined it didn't make sense for him to opt out, so that even when teams had more money to spend earlier in the winter, they seemingly didn't think they could beat that on the open market. I think the problem is that BOS would likely have to take on some money (maybe pay it down to 3/45) and then they would be on the hook for $6M dead money in both 2021 and 2022, whereas if you just keep him and he opts out, that dead money goes away.
Also the option really confuses things, you're asking a team to take on a 1/24 deal with an additional 2/39 after that if the season goes badly for JDM. Combine all of that and I think you have your answer, but if BOS is out of it and JDM is having another great season, he can likely be moved mid-season as a rental who will opt out (also that would be better for him as the acquiring team couldn't give him a QO).
Yes, JDM has a limited no-trade clause:Does JD have a no-trade clause? Why is dumping his salary not an option for getting below the luxury tax limit?
NBC Sports Boston - How J.D. Martinez could turn a 3-team no-trade clause into a virtual guarantee he stays with Red Sox (from November)Martinez holds a limited no-trade clause that on its surface wouldn't seem to provide much protection. He can designate three teams at the start of each offseason, and those teams can change from year to year. He must inform the Red Sox by the end of this month.
I see a bunch of question marks after the first four batters. Verdugo and Chavis I think are still works in progress hitting 5th and 6th, Mitchy needs to keep healthy, can Vaz retain what he seemed to have found last season and JBJ is what he is. There may be a bit of hope there, but for me it's far from sexy.I think that first lineup is pretty sexy.
Let the games begin.
That's why there is someone for everyone.I see a bunch of question marks after the first four batters. Verdugo and Chavis I think are still works in progress hitting 5th and 6th, Mitchy needs to keep healthy, can Vaz retain what he seemed to have found last season and JBJ is what he is. There may be a bit of hope there, but for me it's far from sexy.
Yep. Now we wait to find out just who all off the someone's are going to be.That's why there is someone for everyone.