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2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by jon abbey, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    It's two years, $24M? That's a lot for a part-time utility guy who's played little 3B in the majors and almost no SS (so, as Tulo insurance, he's an odd choice). This seems to foretell another move, but what? If he were going to be the starting 2B, it'd be less curious, so maybe JA's Torres speculation has some merit. But man, I'd much prefer to hold him if I were NY and deal Andujar.

    In any case, this doesn't seem to make a Machado deal seem more likely.
     
  2. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He'd be "Tulo insurance" in that he could play 2B and someone would slide over to short
     
  3. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I think it's understood that big deals for FA often don't work out. But...it's the only way to really leverage their revenue advantage. If the choice is a team with Manny Machado and 60 million in profits for ownership and a team with DJ LeMahieu and 80 million in profits, why would anyone other than ownership pick the latter? The article below spells out a scenario where they could have signed Machado, Corbin, and Kershaw (had he hit FA) and been more or less at 2015 and 2016 payroll levels.

    As I said before, I'll believe they are out on Harper and Machado when they both sign elsewhere.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-have-a-lot-of-payroll-to-use/
     
  4. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    12,079
    1) These aren't 1 year deals
    2) Flexibility
    3) Long-term planning

    Yankees fans are lukewarm on Machado, though we all know he would make the team better on paper. His postseason antics + the size of the expected deal create some level of risk that I'm not comfortable with.
     
  5. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    LeMahieu won't be a part time player. Tulo is making the minimum. LeMahieu will get the chance to start simply because of the contract.
     
  6. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I can easily seen an infield of Andujar, Torres, LeMahieu, and Bird/Voit. Tulo is no lock to make the team and if he does I don't think he warrants playing time over the first 3 players I listed.
     
  7. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    Like JA said, the money can be spread around a bit more. Ottavino, for example. Strengthen the bullpen even more to compensate for SP concerns.

    The Yankees can still use their financial advantage to the fullest without too many monster contracts.
     
  8. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Oh, I think the Yankees may be in on both Machado and Harper. I wish they were in on Keuchel too. My dream scenario would be Harper, then trade Stanton to the Mets for de Grom. You don't need to tell me that this scenario isn't happening, but my dreams belong to me. If they sign Machado I'll be rooting for him just like everyone else.

    As for LeMathieu, he did win a batting title and three gold gloves. And he doesn't strike out 200 times a year. But I wish he hit from the left side.
     
  9. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He hits the ball to RF a lot, read the Fangraphs piece I posted above as it will cheer NY fans up a bit.

    I still say just let Cashman work, he's not done yet.
     
  10. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Machado signs and Gleyber to Cleveland for Kluber /hottake
     
  11. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Love this move and the idea of finding complementary pieces. This team has a couple monster players and rising stars. Why add another huge contract? And if so, give that money to an elite pitcher.
    As Jon says, let Cashman work. His vision is formulating as the market sways back and forth.
     
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Oh, I maybe figured this out. If they sign Machado, he still goes to 3B, Gleyber stays at 2B, LeMahieu plays 1B, Voit goes to DH and Andujar is traded. A defensive infield of (L to R) Machado, Tulo/Didi, Gleyber and LeMahieu would be amazing.
     
  14. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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  15. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    One possibility is that the Yankees are trying to trade Andujar as well as Gray, so they are holding back on Machado. If the Yankees sign Machado-- or even if they are identified as the front-runners--Andujar becomes an appendage and his value plummets.
     
  16. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Here’s something I haven’t seen mentioned yet: Tulo and LeMahieu have 5 years experience playing together at SS/2B.
     
  17. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yep, the Padres have been rumored in on both those guys, and they have the best farm system in the game currently.
     
  18. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    AJ Cole claimed by the Indians, Hanser Alberto claimed by the Orioles.
     
  19. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    LeMahieu was the second best defensive player in all of baseball last year according to this, behind only Matt Chapman.

    https://sabr.org/sdi/2018-final
     
  20. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,297
    And put up a combined .268/.324/.399 line away from Coors in 1460 PAs (2012-15).

    To your point though, it definitely does seem designed to help Tulo succeed. Maybe Torres slides to third?
     
    #1070 chawson, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  21. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Moved from RS board

    I don’t think they’d have signed LeMahieu unless they see him very likely as their starting 2B. He’s just very unlikely to hit enough outside of Colorado to justify 550 at bats at a corner They’re saying publicly what they need to say given Tulo’s recent signing, but I’m predicting LeMehieu at 2B and Torres at SS with Tulo backing up, released, or on the DL. If they can get Machado, he’s at 3B and Andujar is traded for a #1 or DHing.
     
  22. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    This is the confusing part and the reason no one rumored this move at all, LeMahieu seems to be a dominant defender but has only played 2B for years and their just-turned-22 stud Gleyber's natural position is 2B too. Ideally you would never move Gleyber again for the next decade or so, his numbers were bad last year but to me mostly 21 year old sloppiness, he reminded me constantly of Roberto Alomar, so so much range in every direction and a shortstop's arm. But his skills don't seem to translate nearly as well to SS (emergency backup is ok) and the more games he plays at 2B, the better he is going to get, I think.

    Also I think the (hopeful) positional flexibility is important, 3B especially but 1B too, maybe why they wanted him over Lowrie.
     
  23. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Also I am sure they promised Tulo every shot at SS until he sucks or Didi is back or both, it was reported 15-16 teams wanted him after his workouts and they had Boone fly in to lock him in.

    And that's another reason you don't move Torres to SS is that when Didi comes back, then he has to move again. I could see moving him to 3B though and seeing how that went. I think something of a waste of his spectacular range but with shifts these days maybe not as much...

    now:

    Gleyber 3B
    Hicks CF
    Judge RF
    Andujar DH
    Stanton LF
    Sanchez C
    Voit 1B
    Tulo SS
    LeMahieu 2B

    With Didi hopefully back mid-season and Frazier and Bird getting regular ABs in AAA.

    with Machado:

    Hicks CF
    Judge RF
    Machado 3B
    Stanton LF
    Andujar DH
    Sanchez C
    Gleyber 2B
    Voit 1B
    Tulo SS

    LeMahieu is the super sub in this scenario, I guess.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Moved from the main board:

    Quite possibly, which is hard to believe, but Machado is a historically great 3B defender (Showalter recently said the best he has ever seen) and Andujar is historically bad, I think there is probably a 3 WAR difference there just on D. There were lots of crazy stats about Andujar's D that I have posted before but don't see right now, but from memory, NY turned the fewest DPs from 3B of any team in decades, also balls hit towards NY 3B went for (again from memory) 150 points higher BA, something like .380 to .230, hard to believe if you didn't watch Andujar tilting as balls shot by him all summer.

    But that's not the question really, Andujar can't stay there regardless so it is Machado or someone else who is defense first. You don't lose his bat unless they can really get something great in exchange, you see I have him at DH in both lineups above. Cashman doesn't have a lot of ways he can pull NY past BOS but infield defense is one of them, especially left side infield defense. LeMahieu clearly is a big step in improving the infield defense, also that can't hurt with the Ottavino recruitment after he watched him up close as teammates.
     
  25. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    I understand great defense is another way to help the pitching, so even though LeMahieu's bat is a little light for a corner spot (and if they don't get Machado), I hope that his defensive talents translate really well to 3B and he gets most of the time there so Gleyber can just settle in at 2B.

    I haven't checked the stats, but I think maybe GT could develop at the plate a little better if he sticks at a position he already knows well and can focus more attention on hitting and related adjustments as the season goes on.
     
  26. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  27. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    They have Machado and LeMahieu very close over the last three seasons in BWARP (their WAR):

    Machado: 5.7, 2.1, 6.6
    LeMahieu: 4.8, 5.1, 4.8

    Totals: Machado 14.4, LeMahieu 14.7
     
  28. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Just read on reddit that at 6'4, DJ is the tallest 2b of all time. Cash sure does like big players.
     
  29. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cianfar01.shtml
    Archi Cianfrocco was an inch taller and started 12 games at 2B in the 90s.

    High pockets kelly, Travis Shaw, Andy Fox, Danny Ainge and Monty Ferris each saw at least 10 games at 2B and match DJ’s height.
     
  30. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The yanks could use players like a few of the guys in this amazing youtube video:

     
  31. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Fangraphs updated the NY depth chart with LeMahieu (team up 1.1 WAR, they have him as a 2 WAR player), and it's interesting to see what they think the ripple effect of this signing will be. They have LeMahieu with 539 ABs, and here is who lost the most ABs:

    Gardner: 140 (518 to 378)
    Bird: 105 (287 to 182)
    Voit: 105 (532 to 427)
    Wade: 98 (105 to 7)

    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9
     
  32. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    LOL! I knew this was coming! So far we've got: 1) grew up in Brooklyn; 2) best friends with Kahnle; 3) works out in empty store in Harlem; 4) attended games at the Stadium with his dad as a child; 5) former teammate of Tulo; and 6) former teammate of LeMahieu. Damn, so why hasn't Ottavino signed on with the his beloved Yankees yet? What's it gonna take? Could the holdup be the Yankees reluctance to issue Ottavino his jersey number of choice? :confused:
     
  33. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I said "that can't hurt", I didn't say "that will make it happen". Giving him three years would likely make it happen, NY is likely offering 2 and some kind of option.
     
  34. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's the only single digit jersey available!
     
  35. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    633
    But is it available? It's never been worn. Could it - like beards and long locks - be verboten in the Bronx?
     
  36. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    That was incredible. Thanks for sharing.

    One random thing that stuck out was how big foul territory behind home plate was. The pitchers were warming up back there!
     
  37. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    DJ Opposite field batted ball rate by season

    2015 - 1st
    2016 - 1st
    2017 - 1st
    2018 - 15th
     
  38. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Yes, I really enjoyed that youtube. Thanks for posting!

    So I looked up the stats for the 1934 Yankees, a team that finished second to the Tigers, who then went on to lose the World Series in 7 games to the Gashouse Gang. Game 7 was the one in which Joe Medwick spiked Marvin Owen, Detroit's third baseman (with St. Louis having a huge lead at the time), and the irate Detroit fans pelted Medwick with debris, forcing Judge Landis to remove him from the game.

    Red Rolfe was a 26 year-old rookie, and so was George "twinkletoes" Selkirk, who wore No. 3 after Ruth retired and replaced him in RF.

    But the numbers that jumped out at me were Gehrig's. In 1934 he had 690 AB's and walked 109 times, so he had well over 700 plate appearances, yet he struck out only 31 times. He had 11 consecutive years with an OPS of 1.030 or better.

    Today's sluggers strike out 31 times a month.
     
    #1088 Big John, Jan 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    The pitching is about a billion times better now than in 1934, when relievers were just failed starters.
     
  40. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Well, that's an interesting topic. In 1935, Joe McCarthy was one of the first managers to have 5 guys who started almost exclusively, and 5 guys who relieved. Bill James has written about this team. It's when pitchers first started to specialize.

    After 1937, Johnny Murphy was almost exclusively a reliever. I wouldn't call him a "failed" starter; he was 14-10 in 1934 as a starter with a 3.12 ERA and 13 complete games.
     
    #1090 Big John, Jan 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  41. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Just a reminder that we don’t allow Red Sox fans to troll the Yankee threads.
     
  42. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Most hard-hit (95+ mph) batted balls, 2016-18

    1. Manny Machado: 736
    2. Mookie Betts: 668
    3. Christian Yelich: 663
    4. DJ LeMahieu: 645
    5. Nelson Cruz: 641

     
  43. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Saw a report the Padres are hard after Kluber. Any chance they would then send him to NY for Andujar? Maybe Cleveland won't deal with New York.
     
  44. patoaflac

    patoaflac Member SoSH Member

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    930
    Andujar in the NL? No way.
     
  45. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  46. patoaflac

    patoaflac Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe Jon they aren’t worried about bad fielding either. Maybe that’s why they have been, they are and will always be the Padres (historical .461 winning pctg, one season above .500 since 2007).
     
  47. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I mean, he's worth rolling the dice on for a noncontending team, he really seems to have a special bat and doesn't turn 24 until March. Besides Braun, he reminds me of guys like Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, guys who started in the IF and ended up hitting a ton of HRs as corner OFs. If he stays with NY, they have corner OFs, but I think he could be the rare great career-long DH, but if SD values him as a position player, they have a ton of assets they need to start consolidating (ATL too), and they want Sonny Gray also.
     
  48. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    As for SD, Preller has built an amazing system after a couple of horrendous years, but the Headley/Mitchell for nothing deal Cashman got him to take last year was spectacular. Andujar is roughly two trillion times as valuable as Headley was (SD released him on May 17), so we'll see.
     
  49. patoaflac

    patoaflac Member SoSH Member

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    He has big talent as a hitter and he will be best suited as a DH. Playing defense could distract him and diminsh his hitting ability, but as you said we will see.
     
  50. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Olney citing a “longtime American League evaluator” to opine/report that the Yankees are betting on Andujar and his work ethic to improve his defense.

    Obviously a few ways to read this. Jon + others, how do you read it?
     

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