This is a good question and a topic I'll go into in depth at some point, but some really rough numbers have them around $130M after arb awards and the first luxury tax level line is $206M. If I were Hal, I would give Cashman permission to at least go to the higher level if he wanted (the one BOS went through over the summer, in the $230M range?), but of course there are longer term factors also, Hicks and Gregorius are FAs after 2019 for instance so extensions could be involved also. Honestly with the tax rate reset, Cashman might have permission to spend whatever he thinks makes the most sense and NY will deal with whatever penalties from there, but of course I have no actual idea here. 25 year old superstars like Machado and Harper almost never hit FA these days though, it's going to be interesting. Edit: Crosspost with Crow, who said what I said in a lot fewer words.