5) I like Josh Jackson, but we do a disservice to players when we label them “elite”, and they are not elite. Josh Jackson is a borderline Top 10-15 athlete at his position going forward, whose length is already at times a problem at the college level. Just speaking about athleticism, Jackson’s clearly going to be behind Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis, Butler, George, Roberson, Wiggins, Iguodala, Durant, and Anunoby (if he can stick in the league). And while he’s bigger than players like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Justise Winslow and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, laterally he doesn’t move as well as any of them. That’s not even addressing players coming into the league in the next few years like Michael Porter Jr.
A player like Josh Jackson is going to need at least one elite skill going forward to be a Top 15 or Top 20 player. Because there’s also players like Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyrie Irving that he’s going to be competing against. And any of these guys that you would call a superstar are massively valuable in at least one area of the game. Without exception.
Where is Josh Jackson going to be massively valuable? Energy, competitiveness and well-roundedness are qualities of players like Lebron James, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant, but they are just part of the package. They aren’t the whole package. These guys do at least a few things extremely, extremely well, like defend or score with extreme efficiency or set up their teammates. I’m not talking about being above average. I’m talking about maybe being the best in the league.
That’s not to say I’m betting against Josh Jackson. He has a good chance to be very good. But I’ve yet to say a convincing argument that shows he’s elite at anything besides areas of the game where his contributions will be greatly limited moving forward (advancing the ball in transition, offensive rebounding.) And if those skills don’t exist and are unlikely to exist in the future, we’re just throwing the word “elite” around a guy who looks athletic and hoping it will stick. That’s not going to be particularly fair to him moving forward.
The real question: If Josh Jackson can’t get past Ish Wainright, how is getting by Andre Iguodala? In the argument for Josh Jackson as an elite player, as a primary initiator and not as an off-ball Wing, he’s able to consistently beat Iguodala and James and Kawhi when they defend him. And as an off-ball Wing, he’s going to have to be Lonzo Ball as a passer and a shooter to bring elite value on offense. But he’s not Lonzo Ball.
He sees the floor well in the half-court, but like Kris Dunn, his vision coincides with questionable decision making and turnovers. He might not be Kris Dunn bad, but he’s also not nearly as good as Dunn at breaking opponents down off the dribble, and the passes he sees are very often the result of another player’s creation. Which is to identify why he’s perhaps an excellent player to have on a team but unlikely to be a difference maker.
http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-initiators-predictive-indicators/