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2017 NBA Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Kliq, Nov 9, 2016.

  1. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Better numbers at pretty much everything except getting to the line, with a big advantage in TS%, and assist, steal and block rates, while turning the ball over less. He's also more highly regarded on the defensive end. He's a much better college player than Brown was. Though he is old for a freshman- he's only a couple of months younger than Jaylen.
     
  2. rhopkins2323

    rhopkins2323 lurker

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    They are pretty similar. To add to DannyD, He seems more explosive/athletic than Brown.

    Plays on a much better team so that likely makes it easier getting higher quality shots. Would have been interesting if JB played with a better team.
     
  3. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Lonzo is ballin'.
     
  4. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    18/9/7, 4-7 from 3. You guys can nitpick his game all you want, he's got skills you just don't see anywhere else.
     
  5. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    He keeps this up and the #1 pick is well within reach.
     
  6. Sprowl

    Sprowl Mikey Lowell of the Sandbox Dope

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    He GM us long time.

    And do they duplicate each other? Or is Brown a 2/3 while Jackson a 3/4?
     
  7. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    Both look too thin/small to play the four to me. They both look like wings now - but I don't understand why either cannot play the small-four if they build enough strength to body up / box out bigger folks. Heck - look at what smart can do in stretches.
     
  8. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Man, I hope not with Jackson. The assault stuff is pretty gnarly.
     
  9. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    As a Spartan fan who admittedly has not watched much of Josh Jackson I have to say I was impressed. Looked a little over amped early going against a couple good friends in Bridges and Winston. Once he settled down he was a beast. Bridges was playing decent D and some of Jackson's moves were unguardable. In particular the step back three he pulled on Bridges from the wing was impressive. The only defense on that was to hope he missed.
     
  10. slamminsammya

    slamminsammya Member SoSH Member

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    I still just dont understand how Josh Jackson is going to get shots in the NBA. He cant shoot very well, he does not have great handles, and his usage does not suggest he is creating a lot of his own shots at Kansas. A top pick should not be someone whos role in an NBA offense is sitting in the corner.
     
  11. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    Did you watch the second half last night? Thats literally all he did was get his own shot 1 on 1 in a variety of ways.
     
  12. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He has a 27.2% usage rate. That's comparable to C.J. McCollum, Gordon Hayward and Giannis. Guys who can't get their own shot are like Jae Crowder (16.8% usage).

    I don't want Jackson cause his FT% is so terrifying, but I don't think shot creation is the concern.
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is the Ball argument as well but neither of these kids are one-dimensional scorers. Jackson's vision and passing is a decade ahead of his age, his focus and intensity is an intangible that you do have to be concerned about with other kids. He's asked to score more in college so we don't see the vision and passing consistently at Kansas but he's as good a passing wing as I've seen in a long time. Jackson is a complete all-around player. The qualms about his shooting have been put to sleep as he's connected on 3-pointers at a 43.8% rate since conference play began.

    Jackson is very active on both ends of the floor. The "sitting in the corner" thing is more of a function of the Kansas offense that caused people to be critical of Andrew Wiggins as well.......and since he's entered the league Wiggins been among the leagues best shot creators and in the Top-7 in FTA during both of his seasons even at the ridiculous ages of 19 and 20.
     
  14. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I don't agree the qualms about his shooting have not been put to sleep. A .580 FT% on 5.6 attempts per game is much more of a red flag about his shooting than a .435 3P% on half the attempts is a green flag. We've been through this before, but it would almost unprecedented for someone like Jackson to become a good shooter. As far as I've seen, it's like Pierce, and that's it. (Correct me if I'm missing someone). I like Jackson - I love the passing at his age, I think he'll be a good defender, but the shooting remains a scare-point for me. If he was as good a free throw shooter as Tatum though, he'd be a pretty sure-fire number one overall for me.
     
  15. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I understand this and I am a believer that FT% does play a role in projecting future growth in 3-point FG%.......however when that 3-point shooting has shown dramatic improvement over the course of a season this is a much more reliable indicator as it is actually his 3-point shooting which is showing improvement.

    There is also a much longer list than only Pierce. Chris Webber and Karl Malone were both sub-.500 FT% shooters in college who became good to excellent face-up perimeter shooters. In their day, 3-point shooting was discouraged among bigs so we will never truly know how well they would have expanded their range however face-up mid-range shooting was a strength in their games in particular Malone. There are many others off the top of my head Bruce Bowen......we are seeing it right now with Jaylen Brown. Shooting a basketball is one of the most easily improved skills as it's primary function is repetition which can be accomplished with practice as teams now employ coaches specifically toward improving this skill. This was not the case years ago.

    We've watched Jackson all season. He's not taking wide open 3's.....he is creating these shots off the dribble and making them at a tremendous rate for 3 months now. Is that luck? Or is that improvement? Last night he showed shot making that was not evident in November or December......mid-range jumper off a crossover, a step-back 3 off the dribble and another deep 2 baseline jumper off the dribble. We are seeing evidence of improvement on these shots.....I don't see how only a slight improvement in a different shot (FT) negates the actual improvement he's shown in the shotmaking on jump shots.

    Using FT% as a baseline in projecting these improvement is a valid position......until those improvements have already taken place. I expect his FT% to improve as it does for most 18-19 year olds but his 3-point shooting already has as evidence by his entire freshman season.
     
    #565 HomeRunBaker, Mar 20, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
  16. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    10,801
    Brown was something like 225 before this season; Jackson is 205. Brown would be the 3/4; Jackson would be the 2/3.
    This is exactly what the Kaiser guy (who, BTW, desparately needs an editor) that DD posted earlier said - long quote is in spoiler below but there's more at the article.

    5) I like Josh Jackson, but we do a disservice to players when we label them “elite”, and they are not elite. Josh Jackson is a borderline Top 10-15 athlete at his position going forward, whose length is already at times a problem at the college level. Just speaking about athleticism, Jackson’s clearly going to be behind Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis, Butler, George, Roberson, Wiggins, Iguodala, Durant, and Anunoby (if he can stick in the league). And while he’s bigger than players like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Justise Winslow and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, laterally he doesn’t move as well as any of them. That’s not even addressing players coming into the league in the next few years like Michael Porter Jr.

    A player like Josh Jackson is going to need at least one elite skill going forward to be a Top 15 or Top 20 player. Because there’s also players like Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyrie Irving that he’s going to be competing against. And any of these guys that you would call a superstar are massively valuable in at least one area of the game. Without exception.

    Where is Josh Jackson going to be massively valuable? Energy, competitiveness and well-roundedness are qualities of players like Lebron James, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant, but they are just part of the package. They aren’t the whole package. These guys do at least a few things extremely, extremely well, like defend or score with extreme efficiency or set up their teammates. I’m not talking about being above average. I’m talking about maybe being the best in the league.

    That’s not to say I’m betting against Josh Jackson. He has a good chance to be very good. But I’ve yet to say a convincing argument that shows he’s elite at anything besides areas of the game where his contributions will be greatly limited moving forward (advancing the ball in transition, offensive rebounding.) And if those skills don’t exist and are unlikely to exist in the future, we’re just throwing the word “elite” around a guy who looks athletic and hoping it will stick. That’s not going to be particularly fair to him moving forward.

    The real question: If Josh Jackson can’t get past Ish Wainright, how is getting by Andre Iguodala? In the argument for Josh Jackson as an elite player, as a primary initiator and not as an off-ball Wing, he’s able to consistently beat Iguodala and James and Kawhi when they defend him. And as an off-ball Wing, he’s going to have to be Lonzo Ball as a passer and a shooter to bring elite value on offense. But he’s not Lonzo Ball.

    He sees the floor well in the half-court, but like Kris Dunn, his vision coincides with questionable decision making and turnovers. He might not be Kris Dunn bad, but he’s also not nearly as good as Dunn at breaking opponents down off the dribble, and the passes he sees are very often the result of another player’s creation. Which is to identify why he’s perhaps an excellent player to have on a team but unlikely to be a difference maker.

    http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-initiators-predictive-indicators/

    Still, even if Jackson doesn't turn out to be a top 15 player, if he can really hit the three, his borderling elite athleticism, likely ability to defend multiple positions, and high motor make him pretty darn valuable in the NBA, and I'd be more willing to bank on him improving his handles and jump shot than banking on Lonzo Ball to figure out his weaknesses at the NBA level.
     
  17. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Webber played his whole career when the 3 point shot was already a weapon that teams were using regularly, although obviously much less. I really can't get on board with calling him a comp when he finished his career as a sub 30% three point shooter. Webber was also not a particularly effective mid-range shooter either - his career FG% from 10-16 feet for the years when we have data was 35.6%.

    Malone likewise was a 27.4% three point guy. Using him a pro-Jackson point seems strange, even if he played before the three point era.

    Bruce Bowen was a 69.5% free throw shooter in college - that's a world different than Jackson's 58%.

    Brown could end up being a datapoint like Pierce, but he's a TBD at best right now on 105 career three point attempts.

    I don't think any of those guys work favorably for Jackson, outside of Brown's TBD.
     
  18. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    In my day they called it a handle. At what point did people start calling it handles?
     
  19. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Paul George was a 69.7% FT shooter his freshman year in college and then 90.9% his sophomore year, has been 85% in the pros. Many other guys I randomly checked (Carmelo, Kawhi, Harden) saw a bump of 10-15 percentage points. None of them were as bad as 58%, but I'm somewhat optimistic that Jackson could at least get to non-awful for a SF -- say somewhere in the mid 70s?
     
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Avery Bradley shot .545 from the line in college.
     
  21. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    There you go. 77.4% as a pro.
     
  22. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'll give you Avery Bradley. The others (George, Carmelo, Kawhi, Harden) don't quality, as none of them were anywhere near being sub 60% guys. J
     
  23. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Avery was 36-66 for what it's worth. Sample size.
     
  24. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    But the point is that guys can and do improve. Is there reason to think that this applies to guys at 70% but not 60%?
     
  25. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Baron Davis sorta qualifies.
     
  26. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    For some reason, yeah. A lot of those sub 60% guys get worse.
     
  27. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    My point wasn't about FT% improvement. My point is how often guys with sub 60% free throw percentages become good three point shooters.

    Free throw percentage matters by itself too, but it's much more incremental than three point shooting. With three point shooting, at some point, you just aren't a perimeter threat, and teams don't need to guard you much out there, which causes spacing issues. The same sort of thing can happen with free throw shooting if teams can hack you, but Jackson clears that bar anyway.
     
  28. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    1,751
    Probably around the same time "hoop" became "hoops."
     
  29. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Josh Howard hit .583 from the line in his freshman year. Trevor Ariza was something like .504.
     
  30. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    About 476 days ago, when they realized players generally have to bounce the ball more than once to get somewhere.

    I know, it's kind of weird, isn't it?
     
  31. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    These are both good examples too. Howard was an excellent FT% guy (83%) by the time he went to the NBA. He's in the Pierce category (74% by the time he went pro), where the improvement happened in college. Ariza is a good example, even it took him the better part of a decade to figure it out.

    Point taken that calling it almost unprecedented was too strong by me. It's still something that gives me a lot of pause with Jackson if you're spending a high pick on him.
     
  32. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I'm with you on it being a concern, but what do you make of the fact that he's also 39% from 3 and 52% overall this year? Marcus Smart, for reference, was 40% and 29% his freshman year (he did shoot 78% form the line). Clearly JJ has the ability to put the ball in the hoop. Is the FT the mental? If it is, is that a good or a bad thing?
     
  33. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Mine wasn't to dispute this.....my point was that Jackson already is a better than good 3-point shooter. With every rule there are exceptions and that is what Jackson has already become over these past three months. Once he becomes successful shooting 3's there is no longer a predictive value in his FT%.
     
  34. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I've never studied this myself, but from what I've seen elsewhere NCAA FT% has predictive power for NBA 3PT% independent of whether someone is a already a good NCAA 3PT shooter. This is why a lot of models were down on Brandon Ingram as a shooter (41% NCAA 3PT%, but a 68% FT%), as well as Winslow (42% NCAA 3PT%, but a 64% FT%). I'll try and find time to look at this question over the weekend to confirm.

    My first instinct is that he's a good athlete to get off an open shot in college with some ease, so he can put together a good 3PT%, but won't be able to do that in the NBA.

    Smart is probably the worst decent volume 3 point shooter in NBA history for someone with as good a FT% as he has (minimum 3000 minutes, and three attempts per game).
     
  35. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    If it helps I made a list on page 7 of this thread of recent pro guys who had college seasons under 70% on FTs and over 40% from 3. Most shot the 3 fine in the NBA.
     
  36. Swedgin

    Swedgin lurker

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    130
    FWIW this is Cellar-Door's list with career NBA three point percentage added

    Jay Williams .322
    Brandon Ingram .289
    Rashad McCants .368
    Brandon Rush .402
    Jason Kapono .434
    Antoine Wright .304
    Vince Carter .373
    Damion James N/A
    Markieff Morris .329
     
  37. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    A guy has a handle or handles the ball well. He doesn't have handles.
     
  38. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    What about love handles?

    IMG_2425.jpg
     
  39. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    I guess you can improve your love handles. But does that mean they get smaller or bigger or just better?
     
  40. Sprowl

    Sprowl Mikey Lowell of the Sandbox Dope

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    Everything has two handles, one by which it may be borne, the other by which it may not.

    -Epictetus

    It means they offer a firmer grip.
     
  41. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    [​IMG]
    "What the hell is he talking about?"
     
  42. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  43. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    Lol.
     
  44. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    If he and his agents think he's a top ten pick I'd say he would come out. If anything suggests he's potentially not
     
  45. TheDeuce222

    TheDeuce222 Member SoSH Member

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    Draft Express has started posting their invaluable strengths and weaknesses videos with Markelle Fultz up today. For anyone who has not seen Fultz play because Washington sucked the big one and was on at 10:30 at night on the Pac-12 network, and is wondering why he's going to likely be the #1 pick, highly recommend watching: http://www.draftexpress.com/article...raft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/
     
  46. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    2,801


    Lavar winning friends across the NBA.
     
  47. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    What did LaVar say about LeBron's kid(s)? I also wonder if Lonzo just hires an agent when he comes out and ditches his dad.

    edit: Added quotes.
     
  48. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    So he's only Harden short of pissing off the most important person at each of the major shoe brands only a month or two short of negotiations. Solid move.
     
  49. sezwho

    sezwho Member SoSH Member

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    Seriously, I mean even Marinovich Sr didn't start in on Barry Sanders, et al
     
  50. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I like Ball but I do think he's flaws are hidden by the good fit of talent around him at UCLA, they hide him a bit defensively with some zones, which plays to his strengths, and he can't go left. Which if he can't fix is killer.
    I kind of hope the Lakers get him and that crazy dad. I'm not sure the lakers have the shooting around him to make him look as good. The Russell Ball backcourt though, LIT! FUN!
    I mean that could be amazing or it could end up with Russell taping Ball Sr punching him.
     

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