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2017 Celtics Offseason: News and General Discussion

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by cardiacs, Jun 4, 2017.

  1. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    27,558
    Bryan Doo and Ed Lacerte are no longer with the franchise according to Steve Bulpett. Lacerte had just finished his 30th season with the team.
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    22,178
    Lacerte was in Utah for those games.
     
  3. TheRealness

    TheRealness Don't make him go all Lucic on your ash SoSH Member

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    They released Jackson and are going to sign Semi to a 4 year deal, per Bullpet and Himmelsbach.
     
  4. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yep. They are now a very young team.

    Ballhandlers: Thomas, Smart, Rozier
    Wings: Hayward, Crowder, Morris, Brown, Tatum*, Nader*, Olejeye*
    Bigs: Horford, Baynes, Zizic*, Theis*, Yabusele*

    * Rookie
     
  5. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    And Hayward and Horford can also handle the ball.
     
  6. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    15,988
    No more ed lacerte?
     
  7. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Last year, the Celtics had 15 players and played a total of 19,755 minutes.

    Returning guys who played last year:

    IT: 2,569
    Smart: 2,399
    Crowder: 2,335
    Horford: 2,193
    Brown: 1,341
    Rozier: 1,263

    That's 12,100, or 61% of all minutes played by the Celtics last year. Horford (14 games) and Crowder (10) missed some time with injuries; Brown and Rozier are each capable of larger roles.

    Among top 9 guys, they are replacing these three:

    Bradley: 1,835
    Johnson: 1,608
    Olynyk: 1,538

    That's 4,981, or 25% of the minutes. Bradley and Olynyk both missed some time with injuries.

    Experienced newcomers:

    Morris: 2,565
    Hayward: 2,516
    Baynes: 1,163

    A total of 6, 244, or 32% of the minutes. But they replace 2 centers and and a small wing with 1 center and 2 big wings. This indicates a shift towards a more big wing-heavy lineup while they lose a lot of minutes at center. Playing small, but with bigger wings, will be the new order of business. Hayward and Morris are likely to see their minutes decline, while Baynes may surpass his previous career high (1,233) given the Celtics' lack of depth and experience up front.

    The rest of the Celtics from last year:

    Jerebko: 1,232
    Green: 538
    Zeller: 525
    Young: 220
    Mickey: 141
    Jackson: 17 (for which he pocketed a cool $2.1 million!)

    That's 2,673, or 14% of minutes, being replaced by this group, who collectively have not played a single NBA minute:

    Tatum
    Zizic
    Theis
    Yabusele
    Olejeye
    Nader

    They replace 2 JAG centers (Zeller & Mickey), a stretch big who played significant minutes (Jerebko), 2 wings and a PG who barely played with a big wing who was drafted #3 overall, a legit NBA center (Zizic), 2 stretch bigs (Theis, Yabusele) and 2 more big wings.

    Overall, it is a major shift in roster construction, and one that will radically change the Celtics' approach. They will play small a ton, out of necessity, and with smaller guys: if you call Johnson and Baynes a wash, you still swap out over 2,700 minutes of Olynyk and Jerebko for a lot of minutes that will end up going to smaller guys. At the same time, most of Bradley's minutes will end up going to bigger guys.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out. One significant risk will be injuries to the wrong guys - they are awfully thin at the 1 and the 5 even with everyone healthy.
     
  8. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    All that is predicated on IT4's status. I doubt he will be able to log those minutes again
     
  9. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Man, the league has changed. Just ten years ago, 2500 minutes was not a full-time starter's PT.
     
  10. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    He played 76 games, 34 mpg. I think that, or close to it, is a reasonable expectation for him, unless he is going to miss a bunch of games in the early part of the season.

    But, any significant injury time lost by any of the PGs, or Horford, could really be a problem.
     
  11. tbb345

    tbb345 lurker

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    705
    This is why I was somewhat surprised that Danny chose Abdel Nader over Demetrius Jackson. Obviously neither of them move the needle but if there's an injury on the roster, Jackson is a "ball handler" which the team is much shorter on than a "wing" like Nader
     
  12. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    But I would think Jackson, or a guy like Jackson, will be available if needed during the season.
     
  13. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I think all of Jerebko's minutes are filled by some combination of Theiss/Yabusele. So we are "only" looking at replacing Olynyk's minutes and while he is a big dude, I have heard on here more times than I can count that he is just a big shooting guard, so replacing him with one of our many big wings should be a wash :)
     
  14. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    This is probably it. This article from the Crossover argues (without much backing) that there is a shortage of NBA wings who can play both offense and defense, particularly when compared to the average big or the average PG.

    After all, guys like Yogi Farrell and Ron Baker were undrafted. And a guy like Mike James seems like he could step in and run a team.
     
  15. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    It is not that simple, IMO, because I don't think either Theiss or Yabusele will crack the top 10 and get regular minutes.
     
  16. pjheff

    pjheff Member SoSH Member

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    No, but Morris, Baynes, and Tatum will.
     
  17. thehitcat

    thehitcat Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    At the risk of reigniting the Kelly Wars that have ravaged this board and so many others. I wonder if replacing Kelly Olynyk with Marcus Morris is more like for like than we're crediting here in this analysis. You note that we are replacing "2 centers and a small wing with 1 center and 2 big wings." Is it possible that Ainge and Stevens see Kelly and Marcus as more hybrids, big on the defensive end and wings on offense? My guess is that they see it, if they look at it this way, as Big (Amir) for Big (Baynes), Hybrid (KO) for Hybrid (Morris) and Wing (Bradley) for Wing (Hayward).
     
  18. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    Not Baynes, who will (in effect) get Amir's minutes.

    But otherwise, that is my whole point. Next year's Celtics will be shifting significant minutes from bigs to big wings.
     
  19. pjheff

    pjheff Member SoSH Member

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    They will crack the top ten in minutes, though, which was my point. The minutes from Amir / Kelly / Jonas will seemingly be replaced by Morris / Baynes / Tatum.

    Were Olynyk and Jerebko in essence anything more than big wings?
     
  20. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    Olynyk led the team in defensive rebound rate. A wing, regardless of how big, isn't going to do that.
     
  21. pjheff

    pjheff Member SoSH Member

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    I would expect that role to fall to (and improve with) Baynes.
     
  22. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    In no reasonable world is Baynes getting the type of run that Olynyk got with the Celtics last year. Offensively he has nowhere near Olynyk's repetoire.
     
  23. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    ESPN
    Creative use of the stretch provision by the Celtics on the contract of Demetrius Jackson. Boston exercised the 2019-20 non-guaranteed team option on Jackson one day prior to waiving the former second round pick. Exercising the option allowed Boston to stretch the contract over seven years and not five. The cap hit per year is $92,857 instead of $130,000.
    -- Bobby Marks

    There goes Ainge and his cohorts thinking they are all smarter than everybody else again. . . .
     
  24. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure I understand your point. If I'm understanding correctly, it seemed like you were making the point that replacing Olynyk with a wing isn't an issue because he was basically just a big wing. But Tatum and Morris don't/won't rebound as well as Olynyk, and you have to replace that somehow. If you replace them with a couple of big wings in Tatum and Morris you're going to give up a lot on the boards; if you replace him with Baynes, you give up a lot on offense and put your spacing at risk.

    I suspect the Celtics probably give Crowder a lot more minutes at the four. He had solid rebounding rate numbers with limited time there, though there should be some concern as to how well he'd hold up there over 82 games. Morris would hold up better, but isn't as good, and doesn't rebound nearly as well.
     
  25. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    Pretty much. The current state of the roster reflects a choice to go smaller up front, bigger on the wing and in the non-IT part of the backcourt.

    Baynes is best thought of as a replacement for Amir. They aren't exactly the same player, but they both fill the sort of 'traditional C' type role. Baynes has never played more than ~1250 minutes in a season. He may see an uptick with the C's but he is unlikely to surpass Amir's 1,600.

    Olynyk and Jerebko combined for 2,700 minutes and were #1 and #2 on the team in defensive rebound rate (Horford, Crowder, and Johnson were 3-4-5; ). As you say, many of those minutes will go to big wings (Morris, a terrible rebounder, and Tatum, a good one but a rookie).

    They are really betting big on the big wing idea.
     
  26. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    17,908
    I think its pretty safe to say that Ainge, Stevens and the C's braintrust have some analytics that find the value of a traditional rebounder/rim-protector is far below a wing who can spread the floor.

    The problem is that there are many here and those who follow basketball who get frustrated when the Celtics are getting worked on the boards - but we/they are going to have to accept that the Celtics will be scrapping for boards most nights.
     
  27. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    I'm not sure how relevany the analytics is here, just because the Celtics seem to be headed in a very unprecedented direction. Clearly, small lineups have been tremendously effective in the recent NBA. But they have, for the most part, been used as a change of pace to a more traditional NBA lineup. The Celtics seem to be betting that they can be more than that, and I don't think there is data available on that as a nearly full-time strategy.

    Olynyk, in some ways, gave the Celtics the best of both worlds - the height of a center, but the 'spread the floor' capability of a wing. But for all that, he was never more than a matchup guy, starting only 36 games and averaging 21 minutes during his four years.
     
  28. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    1,181
    I think the proof of that as a nearly full-time strategy just won its second championship in three years.
     
  29. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    The Warriors have a two time DPOY who can stretch the floor, guard wings, and protect the rim. Not sure duplicating that's as simple as "the analytics show wings are more valuable than bigs."

    Don't get me wrong, if I were building a team I'd be collecting as many switchable guys as I could find. But without Draymond's versatility, the Warriors small ball lineups are much different.
     
  30. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    11,080
    The Cs have prioritized defending the 3P line over rebounding, probably because of the math. Given the predominance of stretch 4s and the types of offenses being run, the best way to do this is to find players who can guard multiple positions.

    Depending on what rotations Brad ends up using, the Cs could be better at rebounding this year because when they switch big onto small, they will have Jaylen or Heyweird guarding the big underneath rather than Avery Bradley. And while Bradley was a good rebounder for his size, he was still 6'2".
     
  31. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    Absolutely true, and you didn't even get to the part about having 2 perennial All-NBA players to play alongside Green.
     
  32. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    1,181
    Yes, "because Warriors" is oversimplifying. But the league is heading that way. Bigs are overpriced and lack versatility, generally. I think that Danny and Brad are getting on the correct train.
     
  33. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    14,136
    Somewhere in Arkansas you will find Joe Kleine smiling this morning. For those who don't know or don't recall.....http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/23/AR2008022302793.html

    Rather than marginally sucking, Demetrius Jackson blows through the walls of suckitude and in doing so secures that the Celtics pick up a team option year. This sure is one great county we live in!!
     
  34. pjheff

    pjheff Member SoSH Member

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    359
    I was directly responding to a post specifically about defensive rebounding rate. As for "run," I expect Baynes to play the 16 minutes or so a game that Horford is on the bench and more if he's on the trainer's table.

    I'm not looking at replacing Olynyk or his production in isolation; rather, the minutes and responsibilities that went to him, Johnson, and Jerebko are going to be redistributed primarily among Morris, Baynes, and one would think Tatum. None of these guys is going to be a straight one-to-one replacement, so you might get Olynyk's bench rebounding from Baynes and his spacing from Morris, but I don't think that there has been some dramatic change this offseason. A 6'9" Amir Johnson has been replaced in the starting lineup by a 6'9" Marcus Morris. A 7'0" Kelly Olynyk has been replaced in the rotation by a 6'10" Aron Baynes. And a 6'10" Jonas Jerebko has been replaced on the bench by a 6'8" Jayson Tatum. We're talking 4 inches across 3 bodies, less than the singular difference of replacing the 6'2" Avery Bradley with the 6'8" Gordon Hayward at the other starting wing spot.
     
  35. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Closer to home, the one and only Keith Bogans earned just under $20 million in an 11 year journeyman NBA career.

    He earned $5 million of that, his largest annual salary by far, from the Celtics during his final year. Previously, he had been with Brooklyn, and he needed to earn $5 million in order to be a throw in in the Pierce Garnett deal to make the salaries match.

    Hilariously, his deal also called for a nonguaranteed team option, which the Celtics ended up dealing to the Cavs a year later. Sadly, the option was never exercised.

    In contrast to the other deals HRB brought up, however, Bogans did actually play for the Celtics. All of six games and 55 minutes, before he walked off the team in a huff about not getting enough playing time. He went on to never play another NBA minute, however he was able to successfully cash all of those paychecks from the Celtics.
     
  36. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Well, am I reading it wrong that the Celtics picked up a non-guaranteed option -- meaning, they can officially wash their hands of him after this year and not actually pay him the monies -- but since they picked it up, they get to stretch the remainder of what they do owe him over additional years? I don't think Jackson actually makes anything extra here -- or am I wrong?
     
  37. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    I think you are right, he gets nothing extra.
     
  38. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    The lack of urgency to add a top notch rebounding big is the same as when we yell at a player to "follow your shot!" Coaches like Brad coach their players now to take off after their shot and not follow it hoping for the rare offensive rebound of their own shot. It is more valuable for them to get down the court on the defensive end.
     
  39. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    11,080
    Yes, the Cs picked up the team option for 2019-20 but since it is non-guaranteed, they don't have to pay him. But it does count for the stretch provision.
     
  40. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    22,178
    So we saved like $30,000 against the cap? Is that worth it?
     
  41. tbb345

    tbb345 lurker

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    They stretched DJax so they can give Ojeleye a 4 year deal (probably almost identical to what they gave Nader). Before stretching him they could only give Semi a minimum salary (meaning he would likely only accept a 2 year deal)
     
  42. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,586
    I think you are right, he gets nothing extra.
     
  43. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I seem to recall an Illinois team in the late 80's who seemed to be moving in that direction by running out a lineup that was almost all wings (they weren't called that back then). That team made the Final Four in 1989 losing to Michigan's Fab Five on a last-second shot.

    Those Fighting Illini included:
    • Kendall Gill -- 6'-5"
    • Nick Anderson -- 6'-6"
    • Marcus Liberty -- 6'-8"
    • Kenny Battle -- 6'-6"
    • Stephen Bardo -- 6'-5"
    • Lowell Hamilton -- 6'-7"
    I remember some commentators back then (maybe Dick Vitale) opining that this was the future of basketball -- athletes at every position, all of them able to shoot, run, handle the ball, etc.
     
  44. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    24,105
    They were called the 'Flying Illini' and they were awesome to watch. Eight 100+ point games which is still a school record. Team was stacked but not enough to beat eventual champion Michigan with (Sarah Palin banger) Glen Rice.
     
  45. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    2,864
    I was always a fan of Nellie Ball, but yeah, the current Warriors' version is not exactly easily scalable to teams without unique, all-world talents on offense and defense.
     
  46. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    8,202
    Abstaining from bigs has been tried a fair amount in the past. It's a good strategy when you consider how scarce talented bigs really are.
     
  47. Green (Tongued) Monster

    Green (Tongued) Monster lurker

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    The fab five did not arrive until a couple years later. This Michigan team was led by Glen Rice and Rumeal Robinson.
     
  48. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    5,060
    He was guaranteed $650k regardless due to his contract, this just allowed Boston to minimize the impact on the cap.
     
  49. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    300
    Okay, curiosity gets the best of me. Glen Rice/Sarah Palin?
     
  50. queenb

    queenb Member SoSH Member

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    28
    I'm jealous that you get to experience this for the first time right now. Enjoy.
     

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