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2017 Celtics Offseason: News and General Discussion

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by cardiacs, Jun 4, 2017.

  1. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    The Celtics had Lil' Zeke. The Cavs will have LeBron and Lil' Zeke. And Love. Defenses won't be able to focus on him at all.
     
  2. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure what you mean by a great player.

    Crowder is a great 3 & D player. Maybe the best. That has a lot of value and given that someone like Otto Porter is making $20+MM, he has an incredible amount of value for the Cavs.

    But at the end of the day, he's a 3&D player.

    3&D players are great to have; really valuable (did I mention that?); and an important part of every team - except, you can't win with a team full of 3&D players.

    He's a good player and will be a good asset for the Cavs if they use him correctly. However, at the end of the day, players like Jae Crowder aren't going to win you games. It's players like LBJ and Durant and hopefully that includes Hayward and Irving.
     
  3. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    One of the things I love about the additions of Hayward and Irving is just how much trouble they're going to give teams with the pick and roll.

    The team now has two guys starting (rather than just IT) who can not only effectively run the pick and roll, but who you can't even think about going under a on-ball screen on. Horford is a huge advantage in this respect, too: there's no doubt that Gobert and Thompson are both good screeners (and Irving had Love, of course), but there's little they can do post-screen. Horford's toolbox is full, in comparison: he can pop, and if he rolls, he's as good a passer as they come.

    I'm maybe harping on this a little too much, but the addition of Morris is also hugely useful: Morris will be a much more versatile guy to kick it out to than Amir, or even Crowder for that matter. Last year seems like it was a blip in terms of 3pt shooting. He can score in isolation, hit tough triples. He takes a lot of really tough fallaways (what the fuck else was Detroit going to do?) but he's very good at hitting them. Though I hope there's less of those in his future, Danny's talked so much about how important it is too have guys you can go to when the shotclock is low, and if Irving or Hayward is off the floor, Morris is another option.
     
  4. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Roster seems to be almost complete. Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Horford, Baynes, Smart, Morris, Rozier, Tatum (main rotation) Ojeleye, Theis, Yabusele, Nader, Larkin. Leaves us 1 spot.

    Think we still need an experienced BIG to back up Horford, Baynes, Morris. Theis and Yabu should get minutes but if we get an injury, they're probably not ready for prime time.

    My top 3 Options:

    1. Thomas Robinson setting picks and chasing boards would be a nice/cheap option. A very poor man's Tristan Thompson

    2. Any chance we can sign Tyler Zeller on the cheap? He knows the system, seems like a solid citizen and maybe he could develop (ala Horford) a top of the key 3pt shot.

    3. Seems like JaMychal Green's agent screwed up and will have to sign a cheap 1yr deal with Memphis. Maybe Memphis deals him for a pick or one of our kids (Nader)?

    What else is out there? Alex Len? Andrew Bogut too old and fragile? Is a Plumlee available?
     
  5. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Len has a 4.2mil QO and I imagine Mason Plumlee is out of our price range and that Denver is keeping him regardless. Another Plumlee, maybe.

    I'd like Len though. Still young and at the very least can rebound and block some shots. Green would be ideal but I can't see it. We'd have nothing to send back to match in salary, though we could send their 1st round pick back to them.
     
  6. RGREELEY33

    RGREELEY33 Potty Mouth Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    If this isn't your signature within 48 hours, I think you should be banned.
     
  7. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    Agree that Kyrie/Hayward are both really strong pick and roll ball handlers, and that Horford's a solid roll/pop guy.

    But Gobert was second in the league in PPP as the roll guy. He's really good at that.

    As for Thompson, one of the legitimate critiques of Irving's game is that while he's a strong scorer in the PNR, he hasn't shown the ability to consistently create for others as the PNR ballhandler. He improved on it last year, but it's not something he's done consistently. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Horford's PPP as the roll guy declines this year even if Kyrie has very good PPP numbers himself.



    Sent from my Pixel using SoSH mobile app
     
  8. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks for correcting me: when I said "little Gobert can do post screen," I was thinking in terms of *number of things* he can do. Which might not be, as you point out, the relevant point: I should've looked up those numbers . Obviously, being able to slam home just about anything is a hugely valuable skill.

    Leaving aside Horford's versatility; the more important thing is how open the floor will be for Irving and Hayward. And this is the more obvious point, too. It's not even how versatile Horford; more that with Morris and Horford both dragging bigs out, Irving and Hayward will have a lot of room to operate driving. if anybody tries to come help, with 4 shooters out, they should have open 3's whenever they want and the guys to can them, too. If Jaylen regresses as a shooter (and it's legitimate to worry that will happen), that will obviously change things.

    Last year's team had this advantage, at times, too, but they didn't have enough guys who could keep the defense on their heels -- Thomas would penetrate, and then they'd pass around the perimeter, hoping that someone would have an open shot. Hayward can drive and further break down the defense if the ball is kicked out to him, something we didn't see Jae, with his running-back-bum-rushes, or Bradley, or Amir (duh) do very much of effectively. Morris will be better than Amir at this, obviously, though I was surprised to see how much he stinks around the rim (50.8% last year). Jaylen could add a lot in this respect too if he'd stop dribbling the ball of his fucking foot.

    I'm also interested to see how Irving operates in a system that asks him to run so many pick and rolls. I think Zach Lowe was talking about how Irving was the only guy willing to find Thompson in those situations; still, as you've said, he's good, not great at it. We'll see what kind of influence Brad has on him in that respect.
     
  9. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I would expect to see some weirder things, too. They ran a couple of Horford handling/IT screening pick and rolls in the playoffs last year. I'd expect to some interesting plays with various combinations of IT, Hayward, and Horford. They will also run Hayward off screens the way they did with Bradley, but where Bradley really only shot off of those looks, Hayward will be more multifaceted. Also, On Bill Simmons' podcast yesterday, Kevin O'Connor noted that since LBJ's return to Cleveland, Kyrie has shot 44% on spot up threes. With plenty of secondary facilitators in this offense (mainly Horford, Hayward, and Smart), they are going to have plenty of plays designed to get Kyrie spot up looks. (This will be very similar to what they did with IT).

    Lowe also talked about times when Irving wanted a pick and no one came out to set one for him (those would show up like isos or 7+ dribble possessions on the stat sheet). That won't happen in Boston. He's not an IT clone (though they share some skills), but in a general sense Stevens will work with him the same way he worked with IT - tailoring the offense to his strengths. Keeping the middle open, using him off ball for spot up 3s, have him take more 3s than he usually takes, etc.
     
  10. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I think the guy whose development will benefit the most from this is Tatum; getting the ball with the option to shoot, and the defense off-balance, really plays into his strengths.
     
  11. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    For a guy as smart as he is, who seems to care a lot about getting better, playing in Cleveland's "system" must have been really frustrating, even with all the winning.
     
  12. sezwho

    sezwho Member SoSH Member

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    As KOC also said on the BS podcast, one of the threads that ran through Kyries initial list was the teams had strong and seasoned coaches. Also the Knickerbockers, not sure how that fits.
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    A lot of this was system but I feel a lot was skillset too. This was LeBron's team and when he wasn't running the PNR he was getting a rest on an offensive set because it really wasn't necessary with Kyrie being such a lethal iso scorer. Kyrie is also a good screener/PPP and can do many things offensively that Isaiah simply could not but his Iso/PNR numbers were largely a function of what he does best along with how Lue managed LeBron's activity during the course of a game.

    To me Gobert and DeAndre are the best PPP guys in the league as they shift the entire back line of the defense who are forced to protect the rim. Chris Paul is really going to miss the spacing that DeAndre game him in the mid-range but I'd have to think that Gordon also will feel it as well. I'm not sure of fishy' context in saying Gobert can't do must post-screen which is confusing since he's about as dangerous (along with DeAndre) as it gets in both their own scoring effectiveness on this play and how their presence provides space for the ball handler.
     
  14. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    My guess is that his preference was to play for a good coach OR next door to home. Not that crazy.
     
  15. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Milwaukee just stretched Spencer Hawes. He's nothing great, but does bring some size and floor spacing (career 35% from three). Is he worth a look as a vet minimum guy for the last roster spot?
     
  16. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    412
    Terrible defender.

    If Thomas Robinson didn't impress the Celtics and they choose to add a veteran big, they can choose from among Bogut, Splitter, Diaw, Scola, Lavoy Allen, Hibbert, Ezeli, Humphries, and Sullinger.

    Of course Bogut, Splitter and Ezeli have serious injury issues, while Diaw and Sullinger have major conditioning issues. The others don't excite me.

    I'm guessing that Ainge has his sights on RFA JaMychal Green, but I'm not sure how the Celtics can get him.
     
    #866 Big John, Sep 4, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2017
  17. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Fwiw, I like JaMychal Green much, much more than Marcus Morris: he's younger, significantly longer, a much better rebounder, better shooter, and a more versatile defender. Did I leave anything out?

    If Memphis were game and Green were interested in a reasonable $7-8M-type deal, I would happily do a S&T of Morris plus one of the surplus young'uns as salary ballast (Theis, Nader, possibly even Yabusele?)
     
  18. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    I'd be looking to get him at Morris money and add him to Morris by sending out Theis, Nader, and Yabusele. Nader is the definition of NBA 12th-15th man. I will confess I don't have a read on Vogelmann at all, but Yabu Dabu Du might have a future as an NBA starter, I guess. A 4/24 (approximately) deal is probably a great face save for his agent, especially if the last year or two are player options, and the Grizz would be likely happy for the low-priced help.
     
  19. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Wow, that'd be even better. I confess I've lost all sense of what players are "worth" these days, with (on the one hand) guys like Mozgov, Noah and 37 y.o. Pau Gasol on multi-year deals at $16-18M per, and (on the other hand) guys like Noel, JaMychal Green, David Lee, Bogut, Monta Ellis, Ian Clark et al. either taking vet mins, qualifying offers, or still looking for jobs.

    To me, JaMychal Green checks all the boxes of a 3/$36M type player in today's NBA: 27 years old, 6'-9" with a 7'-2" wingspan, strong enough to guard 4 but quick enough to guard 3, winning pedigree / playoff experience, highly efficient scorer at low volume (.601 true shooting last season), hits threes (38% last season), excellent rebounder for a combo forward (13.4 boards per 100 possessions career, compared to Marcus Morris's paltry 8.1).
     
    #869 Sam Ray Not, Sep 5, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2017
  20. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    The Cs can't get Green so people should get that out of their mind. The Grizz can match whatever the Cs can offer since the Cs can't offer much and they aren't going to trade him for non-assets. I would guess that the Grizz has offered him multiple years at $5MM to $7MM a year so that Green has two choices since he didn't get his big offer in free agency: (1) accept the below-market contract, make sure he's financially set, but also play at below market salary for a few years, or (2) accept the $2.8MM qualifying offer and hope that the market is better next year and also hope that an injury doesn't occur.

    I guess no team wants to screw with the Grizz's salary cap like New Jersey did with Otto Porter.

    https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/20...-green-memphis-grizzlies-2017-nba-free-agency
     
  21. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    Morris' RebRate suffered from playing next to a human vacuum cleaner (Drummond), his RebRate should return to its normal 10%-11% here. that being said in his brief NBA career Green has been a RebRate 14-15 guy, and Boston could use that.

    However his market's artificially depressed due to the RFA status, and Memphis clearly doesn't agree with his agent's valuation. Hence my remark about about a three or four year deal with an opt out after year two, which gets him to UFA status while he's still young enough to enjoy it. Green and Morris as the power 3s would go a long way towards cementing Boston in the first tier of contenders.
     
  22. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    Or the Grizz just don't want to pay market rates given their cap/tax situation, which is just as likely true.
     
  23. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Ryan Bernardoni wrote a really good post here about how the new Celtics might fit together together with statistics on how the various players are or are not efficient. To no one's surprise, Brad is going to have some work to do getting spacing down for this team, although we all wonder what new wrinkles he is going to come up with to get Kyrie, GH, Morris, etc. to play to their strengths.
     
  24. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Whether or not the Grizz want to pay market rates, the point is that they don't have to the way the offseason worked out. I'm sure the Grizz are ecstatic at the possibility of locking up someone like Green at a way below market contract, just the way DA did with Jae.

    Memphis is not trading Green.
     
  25. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    If he signs the QO they've lost him already. He and his agent probably prefer a long term deal now, but if he signs the QO then he's a UFA at year's end and the Grizzlies need his approval for a trade. As a C's fan I prefer that he sign the QO because I'm sure that he and his agent would love to play out that string on a contender and the price gets lower for the loss of Bird Rights.
     
  26. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    I really enjoyed the piece for the most part but I didn't find his analysis on Morris very illuminating. He seemed to apply old numbers and say this is the type of player Morris is without accounting for situation
    He talked about how Morris was more of a "creator" and liked to dribble versus a straight catch and shoot. I think that is almost entirely due to the fact that he had to be a creator because of the team he was playing on, which never really offered him any open 3s due to subpar PG play.
    Bernardoni also seems to write as if the act of taking (just taking it, not making it) a wide open 3 is a skill and I think that's pretty ridiculous. I find it hard to believe that if Hayward/Kyrie whips the ball to Morris in the corner and he has a wide open 3 he's going to dribble around a bit before shooting because thats what he did in a completely different situation
     
  27. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I thought the piece was good, highlighted some real issues and possible problems, but suffered a bit from what Kevin O'Connor, on Simmons' podcast, called a tendency to evaluate the deal by looking backward instead of ahead (ie, focusing on what a player has done vs what he will do).

    I do think there are guys who aren't as good at catching the ball and flowing right into the shot as they should be, though I have no idea if Marcus Morris is one of those. Context matters, too.
     
  28. moly99

    moly99 Member SoSH Member

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    I am not really sure what the alternative is, though. Unless you expect analysts to invent a time machine, future projections have to be based on extrapolations from past data.
     
  29. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I agree with a lot of what you said but with regards to the bolded, being able to stand in the corner for 20 seconds and then accurately shoot a 3Per when the ball rotates is definitely a skill, particularly if the player only gets a few chances a game. That's one of the biggest problems with volume scorers in college - the conventional wisdom is that guys shoot better when they get 15 shots than when they get 5, and some volume scorers have a hard time adjusting to not having the ball in their hands on the pro level because there are better options.

    This particularly makes a difference if a guy's shooting mechanics are funky. I have no idea about Morris' mechanics but it will be interesting to see whether he can hit a few more open 3Pers.
     
  30. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    The point is to keep that in mind and realize that projections aren't the end all, be all. They are useful to help inform, not to answer. They are one data point in a set of data points used to evaluate a game that is still played by humans and, thus, inherently not predictable. God forbid some qualitative analysis is brought to the table that isn't 100% borne out by stats.
     
  31. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    I agree with this. I tried to make it clear in my original post but I don't think I did a very good job of it. I think making an open corner three in the flow of the game is a skill. I don't think taking it is. Maybe I am misreading his blog post and his point is that Morris hasn't had the opportunity to take many open catch and shoot 3's so it could take some time for him to get used to the shot and make it. That I agree with. However, and this is the way I interpreted it, I don't think Morris is going to catch the ball and see that he has an open shot, then panic and dribble into a contested shot.

    Again, there's a definite possibility I misinterpreted the post. To answer your last sentence, Morris has good mechanics but is historically a very mediocre shooter. Hopefully these open 3's raise that percentage
     
  32. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Having the quickness to catch-and-shoot against todays NBA defenders is most definitely a skill imo. We had a player last season as an example of a player who was skilled at making face-up jumpers but NOT skilled at taking them in Olynyk.
     
  33. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    If Jamychal Green signs his QO, besides needing to approve any trade which would wipe out his Bird rights, he wouldn't be able to be traded under any circumstance until December 15th.

    I don't think Memphis will give him up. But if they did I'd guess the only realistic way for Boston to get him would be in a sign-and-trade for Marcus Morris, plus whatever kids salaries may be necessary depending on Greens' contract. Morris' trade restriction expires tomorrow.

    I'd rather just keep Morris. I think they see him as playing Olynyks' role as a floor stretching big. They're just not as worried about rebounding as fans are.
     
  34. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    Oh I agree that they aren't moving Morris. He might not be as accurate a shooter as Olynyk, but he has a quicker release and despite last year's slump has been a decent three point shooter over the course of his career. He's perfect for the role of big wing and weakside shooter (especially this year where he'll get to play off Hayward & Irving as opposed to Harris & Jackson), and is able to handle their preferred switching defense.
     
  35. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I think what nighthob meant is that if Green signs the QO, there is roughly a 0% chance he re-signs with Memphis in 2018.
     
  36. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    That may be true, I don't know if I'd agree, but it doesn't help the Celtics acquire him this year. That's what was being discussed.
     
  37. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    +1
    It also happens way too much in SoSH baseball analysis. Any monkey with a spreadsheet can look at past results, add an age curve and project out. Zero added value.
    The trick is to take past results, put the player in a different situation with new variables and try to figure out predictive results.
    Morris is the perfect example of a guy that could surprise to the upside playing under Stevens ball movement system with Irving/Hayward/Horford. More importantly is the impact he will have defensively guarding LBJ, skilled 4s, and adding some toughness.
     
    #887 benhogan, Sep 6, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
  38. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    In baseball, that type of analysis is way more defensible as long as it consider park effects. In basketball much more depends on teammates and scheme.
     
  39. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Rumor central has Bogut as a possible signing?
     
  40. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Is he even better than Baynes at this point (and Baynes is limited himself)? I wasn't sure he was better than Ezeli two years ago before his latest major injury. Added depth up front in the playoffs can never hurt and we are now a ring chaser destination but I wouldn't expect much out of him. Why would he sign in Boston to be the backup 5 to the backup 5? Can't hurt to have Bogut as your 3rd center at the minimum but he surely would seem have better opportunities to contribute elsewhere.
     
  41. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    John Karalis had an article on boston.com about Kyrie and Horford:

    He argues that Kyrie running plays (hand offs and pick and roll/pop) with Horford instead of Tristan Thompson will open up some stuff.

    He notes that Horford is more of threat with the ball in his hands, and a better screener, than Thompson, so he is a more ideal person to run those plays.

    Smilar deal with the pick and roll. Thompson took more than 75% of his shots from within 5 feet. After setting a pick for Kyrie, he was no threat to do anything but roll. Horford, on the other hand, can (and did) pop, often leaving the middle open for IT.

     
  42. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Meanwhile, Tim MacLean at celticsblog.com had an article about Gordon Hayward and the Celtics offense:

     
  43. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Poor Al is going to be setting 50 screens a game
     
  44. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    any color on Morris's pick n roll/pop skills? His passing skills? Could Marcus be a Horford lite and play his role when Al goes to the bench?
     
  45. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    He's a career 35.5% from three, FWIW.
     
  46. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Morris is more of a natural scorer and shooter than he is a passer.....he knows how to put the ball in the basket but doesn't force a lot of shots. We haven't had this complete of a role player in our forward rotation since I can remember. While he isn't great in any one area he's a solid defender, very good shooter as a stretch-4, and is a good mid-range scorer.

    I expect his abysmal rebounding numbers to make a fairly drastic leap (it was 25% higher prior to his Detroit days) now that Drummond won't be snatching everything that comes off the rim but without a ton of length he's never going to be a plus rebounder. He's also never going to be a great distributor as he's best being on the receiving end spotting up or scoring in mid-range.
     
  47. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    CelticsBlog on the performance of Theis at the EuroBasket tournament.

    Here's a short clip from the article where he is switched onto Sergio Rodriguez:
     
  48. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  49. Garshaparra

    Garshaparra lurker

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  50. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    That strikes me as a lot of failed physicals.
     

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