2016 NFL MVP Race
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DVOA is defense adjusted. VOA is not, though it appears that they just call it non-adjusted now. They show non-adjusted on the team offense page and the description is accurate re: Atlanta.
Not sure they really got jobbed by the refs in Seattle. Sherman should have been called for DPI, but Julio also should have been flagged for head-slapping Sherman, which is what allowed him to get free. So at most, offsetting penalties if everything is called properly, and the Falcons get another 4th and 10 try.
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I don't think he was putting that in Ryan's column - that's just a tale of how Atlanta became the #2 seed. The whole KC game was just weird; Eric Berry scored eight defensive points himself off a pick-six and a pick-two, and KC also scored a touchdown on a fake punt run up the middle. Every team and indeed QB will have a game or two like this; Atlanta's other bad one was the San Diego loss at home in which Matt Bryant dinged an upright from 58 yards on the last play of regulation, and then Quinn went for it on 4th down in his own territory and failed. The point is that the Falcons overcame a pretty hard schedule and a few quirky games like these to still be 10-5 with the #2 seed in their grasp. (Of course, if Atlanta loses to New Orleans and falls to the #3 seed, Ryan probably won't win the MVP.)
By the way, Ryan's rate stats are more impressive than his (still great) counting stats in large part because the Falcons were able to bench Ryan for a quarter against the Rams and 49ers, and on several other occasions they've had big leads going into the fourth quarter and played a run-centered offense plus prevent defense. He's had almost no garbage-time yards at all this year. I know you can make a similar case for Brady to a large extent as well, but this still warrants mentioning in the context of Ryan's statistical resume.
That's not "just weird" - that's two horrible plays by Ryan that contributed heavily to losing the game. There's a valid case for him for MVP anyway, but dismissing it as weird or quirky belies Ryan's agency in how that game played out.
Well, Brady hasn't. Maybe Ryan should still get MVP over him anyway because four games is a lot, but your statement doesn't really hold water.
Right, and overall the benefit to his rate stats outweighs the harm to his counting stats, because, like nearly all QBs, his numbers suffer when he's behind, or in a close game, or even just throwing in the fourth quarter. For example, his career 1st Quarter rating is 102.0 (57/19 TD:INT) and 85.0 in the fourth (56/41). It's a lot easier not to throw interceptions when you're ahead. In his career, when tied or trailing with less than four minutes to play, he's thrown 9 TD and 13 INT for a 66.85 including being 11 for 25 with an INT and a 40.1 rating this year. (Brady's career rating is over 80, and 136.1 in this year's very small sample.)
If he did not have the benefit of big leads, he'd have more passing yardage, but in all likelihood, it would be to the detriment of his rating/int numbers.
I wasn't meaning to dismiss the Chiefs game; those were two very bad plays by Ryan, and it was largely because of them that the Falcons lost. But my point is that they came in the context of a game against a very good team in which other weird stuff happened; not just the fake punt, but also a gutsy fourth down call by Andy Reid which the Chiefs converted to turn a FG into a TD. (And for that matter, even if Ryan threw an INT on the two-point conversion, how often does that lead to the other team scoring two points?) When Brady had his subpar games - and he did have them this year (at DEN, at SF, at NYJ, vs. LA) - they came against mediocre-to-bad teams and didn't lead to losses.
Fair point, although I think it's also true that both rate and counting stats get better for QBs when their teams are more than 14 points behind in the fourth quarter. And the Falcons haven't ever been down by more than 10 points in the fourth quarter all season.
You are capturing very accurately the refereeing world I wished we live in and not the reality of NFL officiating in 2016. I remain shocked that play wasn't called as DPI. The only explanation I can come up with was Sherman getting some star treatment at home. That was DPI per the 2016 officiating norms.
I think the defense not getting the ball back in the last 4:32 of the game (with two timeouts) was what blew the game. Ryan made a bad throw on the 2 pt conversion, most likely just missing where Berry was in the coverage. He also brought them back from down 11 in that game with two 4th quarter 80 yard drives against a very good defense. His brain fart on the two point conversion that hurt his team in the middle of an other wise great performance was not very different than the howler of an interception that Brady threw in the end zone when they could have put the game out of reach against Baltimore or the horrible missed throw Carr had to Seth Roberts in the second half against Kansas City that would have put them in position to tie the game. Even the best QBs miss a key throw on occasion. In the context of the whole season, as much as I respect Brady and love Carr, I don't think there is any question Matt Ryan has been the best QB, and therefore MVP, in the NFL this season.
I'm not sure that's correct. PFF did a study a couple of years ago on this (teams down by >14 points in the second half), and found that while passing yards and Y/A went up, so did INT%. And completion percentage, TD percentage, and rating went down compared to overall.
Part of the reason they were down 11 is because Ryan threw a brutal pick-six earlier in the game. And yes, the D couldn't get the ball back, but they only had one timeout, not two. KC only needed two first downs to run the clock out.
In a 16-game season, the Chiefs game is a lot of negative win equity for an MVP candidate, and it wasn't the only game where Ryan couldn't deliver late. Maybe he's still the MVP anyway on total body of work, but signature / clutch performance is a negative mark for Ryan. Different people will weigh that differently.
This is pretty harsh, no? He struggled at Denver and red zone performance was weak against the Rams, but he was AFC player of the week after the SF game (4 TD 0 INT) and he led a fourth-quarter comeback against the Jets (Brady's only one, which isn't ideal for his candidacy either). He also didn't turn the ball over in any of these games.
And another part of the reason they were down 11 was a 55 yard fake punt touchdown earlier in the game by KC. That certainly wasn't on Ryan.
Isn't that "negative equity" cancelled out by outdueling Carr and his 12-3 team, on the road, in a game that was tied in the fourth quarter? How about when he "delivered late" to beat Aaron Rogers and the Packers, leading a touchdown drive with 30 seconds left when down six? Those games were certainly signature / clutch performance and better than anything Brady has put on the table, considering Joe Flacco (or maybe Andy Daulton) is the best QB that Brady has beaten this season. His overall numbers overwhelm Carr and Brady's and he beat Carr head to head.
Sure. I'm definitely not giving Ryan a pass on handing KC 8 points though, including the winning margin, particularly in an MVP discussion.
That's fair. I catalogued Ryan's clutch opportunities / performances upthread (though I didn't have the Oakland game, so I'm glad you pointed that out). Overall, they are not impressive. He might still deserve MVP anyway, because Brady doesn't have the clutch opportunities / performances either and missed four games, and the wheels have basically come apart on Stafford and Carr, the Dallas options all cancel each other out, etc.
EDIT: should also point out, late INT vs Seattle was not Ryan's fault. He didn't play well in that game late, but he didn't blow the game or anything.
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I think you are outlining why Elliott will win (although he wouldn't be in my top three). All of the QB choices are hard to separate, and Brady has the best record and MVP-type TD/int numbers but some folks aren't inclined to go that way. It's easy to just say well I'll give my vote to the RB candidate (even if he might really be the second best RB candidate).
Fair enough, I missed your excellent post examining Ryan's clutch failures that you referenced earlier in the thread. I think I was blinded by the awesome Kelechi Osemele MVP recommendation right above it. That, of course, is the real correct response to MVP question. Lock the Thread.
Wait, was this an intentionally hurtful pun???? Derek's leg is already healing, you monster.
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Here's the Football Outsiders take on why Ryan should win the MVP award:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/matt-ryan-2016-nfl-mvp
My favorite stat in the article: Ryan's lowest yards-per-attempt rate in any game this season is 7.91. Currently the best minimum YPA achieved in each game of a 16-game season in NFL history is Kurt Warner, at 6.87 YPA in 2001 - more than a yard per attempt less. (I think it's fair to say Ryan is having one of the most consistently good seasons by a QB in NFL history.)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/matt-ryan-2016-nfl-mvp
My favorite stat in the article: Ryan's lowest yards-per-attempt rate in any game this season is 7.91. Currently the best minimum YPA achieved in each game of a 16-game season in NFL history is Kurt Warner, at 6.87 YPA in 2001 - more than a yard per attempt less. (I think it's fair to say Ryan is having one of the most consistently good seasons by a QB in NFL history.)
The Matt Ryan MVP debate reminds me of commentary on Tony Romo. When you have a bottom third of the league defense (23rd in yards per game allowed and even worse on points per game allowed) mistakes by your QB will have more of an impact and look worse.
Matt Ryan had to overcome a bad defense. Whether you look at traditional stats or DVOA there is no debate here. I don't think a non-QB can ever be the MVP. So which QB had the better season?
I only saw Ryan play four times for the full game vs I don't think I missed a Brady game. Their rate stats are similar. Brady holds an edge with TDs and INTs but Ryan isn't far off behind. Brady's defense was also much better than Atlanta's even if you are, understandably, skeptical about how good the Pats D is. Because they are so close together and Ryan leads the league with a 9.26 yards/attempt I think Ryan had the better year. I don't count Brady's suspension against him. I do give Ryan extra credit for overcoming a bottom third vs average defense for Brady.
Quick edit: I don't think the quality of the defense now has been consistent this season for Brady. The defense now looks at least average with the potential to be a top 10 unit. They have really improved as a unit since mid-year (think the shit-show vs. Seattle). So Brady did have the weight of the Pats success on his shoulders for a good chunk of the year. In Ryan's case though his defense was consistently bad throughout the whole year and still look below average.
Matt Ryan had to overcome a bad defense. Whether you look at traditional stats or DVOA there is no debate here. I don't think a non-QB can ever be the MVP. So which QB had the better season?
I only saw Ryan play four times for the full game vs I don't think I missed a Brady game. Their rate stats are similar. Brady holds an edge with TDs and INTs but Ryan isn't far off behind. Brady's defense was also much better than Atlanta's even if you are, understandably, skeptical about how good the Pats D is. Because they are so close together and Ryan leads the league with a 9.26 yards/attempt I think Ryan had the better year. I don't count Brady's suspension against him. I do give Ryan extra credit for overcoming a bottom third vs average defense for Brady.
Quick edit: I don't think the quality of the defense now has been consistent this season for Brady. The defense now looks at least average with the potential to be a top 10 unit. They have really improved as a unit since mid-year (think the shit-show vs. Seattle). So Brady did have the weight of the Pats success on his shoulders for a good chunk of the year. In Ryan's case though his defense was consistently bad throughout the whole year and still look below average.
Listening to ESPN Radio this morning and they were moaning "Why does no one discuss Matt Ryan as MVP?"
Well dudes, you're part of the biggest sports network in the world, most sports conversation is driven by you (rightly or wrongly) and that conversation follows the drivel you sell. If you think Ryan is a worthy MVP then show the world.
Well dudes, you're part of the biggest sports network in the world, most sports conversation is driven by you (rightly or wrongly) and that conversation follows the drivel you sell. If you think Ryan is a worthy MVP then show the world.
Isn't the flip side, though, that when you have a bad defense you'll be in more shootouts and have to put up more points? I wonder how much fantasy affects MVP considerations, too. Regardless of how they ended up, the Falcons were perceived as having 2 backs who were arguably worthy of 1-2 round picks, plus Julio. Brady had LGBT, who nobody was rushing to draft this year. The Falcons offense just felt like it had more weapons and was supposed to perform like this.
Was just looking back at MFL MVP voting and found this little nugget of trivia: the last time a Falcon received MVP votes was in the 2008/09 season, when Michael Turner finished in a tie for second with Jets' QB Chad Pennington.
Also some interesting tidbits here.
edit: just realized that the tidbits are 2 years old.
Also some interesting tidbits here.
edit: just realized that the tidbits are 2 years old.
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Don't forget the dome factor as well.
I remember about a decade or so ago, in the heat of the Manning vs Brady debate where it was pointed out that Brady had a better qb rating both indoors and outdoors than Manning, but Manning had a better overall QB rating due to the huge number of indoor games.
I don't know if Atlanta's skill players are better.
Tight end wise Gronk/Bennett are much better than anything Atlanta had to offer (Tamme/Hooper) even with Gronk being out.
Freeman and Coleman were quite the duo this year. Blount/White/Lewis aren't chopped liver though. You know me, man, I usually spam some numbers for context but here, admittedly lazily, I think if Freeman/Coleman are an A/A- duo the New England trio gets B+/A-.
WR is Jones/Sanu/Gabriel/Robinson vs. Edelman/Hogan/Mitchell/Amendola. Gabriel has been so explosive whenever he touches the ball. He's a real treat to watch. Obviously Atlanta has an advantage here. I think though that I like New England's 2-4 guys more than Atlanta's.
Overall are the advantages Atlanta has with their receivers and to a lesser degree running backs more significant than the advantage New England has with tight ends? I don't know if Atlanta has better skilled position players but if they do I don't think it is by that great of a margin.
I agree with your analysis and wasn't talking about actual production, so much as perceived production going into the season. The story with the Falcons was that they would have this dynamic double-headed threat in the backfield, while the Pats would have a plodder cast off from the Steelers and maybe Lewis later in the season. Ryan wasn't expected to carry the load as much going into this year beyond dumping off to Coleman and Freeman and hucking it up for Jones, so maybe his lack of recognition this late into the season is a carryover to the early wisdom about his role in the loaded offense.
Stafford +5000 is intriguing. The numbers aren't there, but he's already led 8 game-winning comebacks this year (a record) and he plays in a prime time Sunday night game for all the AFC North marbles. If he carves up Green Bay and leads another late game-winning drive, it's easy to see the narrative shifting his way, especially in a year where the votes might be divided up. Is that a 50:1 long shot?
He really needs to dismantle Green Bay I think in a shootout. Even then, does that get him enough votes? He probably lost a chunk of his MVP equity last week when he shat the bed in the 2nd half against Dallas in a playoff-clinch game.
Those odds though are pretty intriguing.
I agree with all this. As far as his odds of dismantling Green Bay in a shootout, the Packers have the 29th-ranked passing defense (in yards) and the game is in Detroit.
I guess this also reinforces that Rodgers still isn't getting enough credit. He has to carry a D that is every bit as bad as Ryan's and worse than Brady's, and he had no running game for a significant stretch of the season (those apply to Stafford, too, but his numbers are clearly a cut or two below).
Stafford was already a long shot 3 weeks ago, since then:
he's gone 71/120 756 yards 1 TD 4 INT as his team went from the easy division winner to possibly out of the playoffs.
Since then the QBs that were probably already in front have done this:
Ryan- 62/84 800 yards, 7 TD 0 INT and his team is the projected 2 seed
Rodgers- 65/92 845 yards 7 TD 0 INT and a team that was supposed to be dead is 1 win from winning the division.
Brady- 58/97 808 yards 6 TD 1 INT and his team clinched HF and is 1 game from the 1 seed.
he's gone 71/120 756 yards 1 TD 4 INT as his team went from the easy division winner to possibly out of the playoffs.
Since then the QBs that were probably already in front have done this:
Ryan- 62/84 800 yards, 7 TD 0 INT and his team is the projected 2 seed
Rodgers- 65/92 845 yards 7 TD 0 INT and a team that was supposed to be dead is 1 win from winning the division.
Brady- 58/97 808 yards 6 TD 1 INT and his team clinched HF and is 1 game from the 1 seed.
right. you don't take longshot mvp bets in week 17
elliott / ryan / brady / rodgers are the only ones with a shot here. It's pretty close between the 4. Here is where I think voters are
Ryan
Elliott
Rodgers
Brady
although this is my vote
Ryan
Brady
Rodgers
Elliott
elliott / ryan / brady / rodgers are the only ones with a shot here. It's pretty close between the 4. Here is where I think voters are
Ryan
Elliott
Rodgers
Brady
although this is my vote
Ryan
Brady
Rodgers
Elliott
Do we know who the 50 voters are this year? I'm wondering if any are Brady sympathizers or Goodell critics that might swing their vote to Brady as kind of a middle finger.
If Stafford passes for 400 yards tomorrow night and Detroit gets the 2 seed - possible if they win and Atlanta and Seattle both lose - then some voters will trick themselves into choosing Stafford. Maybe even enough to give him the award. But that's the only conceivable scenario for me.
Edit: That was old
It will be great when Ryan wins MVP and loses in the divisional round. This guy comes up cold when it matters the most.
Brady won't win.
Rodgers and Ryan have legitimate cases and even if Brady gets a groundswell of support at least a few dipshit voters will leave him off the ballot because INTEGR1TY
Rodgers and Ryan have legitimate cases and even if Brady gets a groundswell of support at least a few dipshit voters will leave him off the ballot because INTEGR1TY
My ballot:
1. Ryan
2. Carr
3. Rodgers
4. Brady
5. Stafford
6. Elliott
7. Prescott
8. Rapist
9. DJ
10. Brees
11. Wagner
12. OBJ
1. Ryan
2. Carr
3. Rodgers
4. Brady
5. Stafford
6. Elliott
7. Prescott
8. Rapist
9. DJ
10. Brees
11. Wagner
12. OBJ
I think you're right, but there's a chance that things swing the other way and voters go Brady as a FU to Goodell. Unlikely, but possible.
It's definitely Ryan's to lose. The only way I could possibly see Brady winning is if the vote gets really, really splintered (especially regionally) and just somehow he has one or two votes above the next guy.
