2016 NFL MVP Race

InstaFace

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So with last night's debacle in Kansas City, the Carr-for-MVP express seems, if not derailed, then at least refueling at the station.

Then this morning we get Bill Barnwell talking about how Ezekiel Elliott can't be MVP because he's not even the league's best back (which, he argues, is David Johnson of Arizona. He tosses in a throwaway, "Tom Brady could sneak back in if the Patriots win out to go 14-2", but then spends 1000 words on two running backs. Besides, Brady's case would be tough to make that he's been more valuable over 12 games than anyone else has been over 16, especially when his team was able to go 3-1 without him.

In any case, how are people handicapping the race right now? I can tell you how the sports betting world feels:

Ezekiel Elliott 7/2
Tom Brady 4/1
Derek Carr 7/1
Russell Wilson 7/1
Matt Ryan 8/1
Matt Stafford 10/1
Dak Prescott 12/1
Kirk Cousins 25/1
David Johnson 33/1
 

Koufax

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I'm not sure he'll win, but I bet that Russell Wilson will end up with better odds than he has now. He was hurt at the beginning of the season but if he finishes the way he played against Carolina he'll be right near the top of the board. He's an electric player.
 

Super Nomario

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I'm not sure he'll win, but I bet that Russell Wilson will end up with better odds than he has now. He was hurt at the beginning of the season but if he finishes the way he played against Carolina he'll be right near the top of the board. He's an electric player.
Problem is you don't know what you're getting week-to-week with the Seattle offense. Great against Carolina, but the week before they put up three points against Tampa Bay.
 

RG33

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Ezekiel Elliott 7/2
Tom Brady 4/1
Derek Carr 7/1
Russell Wilson 7/1
Matt Ryan 8/1
Matt Stafford 10/1
Dak Prescott 12/1
Kirk Cousins 25/1
David Johnson 33/1
I think Matt Stafford is a great bet at those odds. If DET keeps winning, he is going to jump to the top of the list IMO.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I think Matt Stafford is a great bet at those odds. If DET keeps winning, he is going to jump to the top of the list IMO.
CHI
@NYG
@DAL
GB

I don't like their chances after this week. I would be surprised if they were 1-3 or 2-2 to end the season. I don't see a 10-6 Stafford winning MVP.
 

pappymojo

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I think Elliott wins it. Based on the NFL's history he probably gets arrested for domestic violence the day after the award is announced.
 

RedOctober3829

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There really isn't a stand out candidate for MVP this year. Brady's numbers have tailed off the last couple of weeks and he will get penalized for the first 4 games missed. Carr lost a lot of momentum last night. Wilson has been up and down. I think it will come down to these three players plus Elliott. If Dallas finishes 15-1 I think Elliott has a good shot. Brady has a couple of prime opportunities playing on MNF and a national doubleheader game next week in Denver. If he lights it up the next 2 weeks he will gain some steam.
 

Oppo

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Ezekiel Elliott 7/2
Tom Brady 4/1
Derek Carr 7/1
Russell Wilson 7/1
Matt Ryan 8/1
Matt Stafford 10/1
Dak Prescott 12/1
Kirk Cousins 25/1
David Johnson 33/1
EE: Still to play
Brady: Still to play
Carr: Awful week. 17/41, 117 yards, loss
Wilson: Awful week. 5 INT, loss
Ryan: 3 TD and a win against an awful team
Stafford: Passing TD, rushing TD, 2 INT. Comeback win after tossing a pick 6.
Prescott: Still to play
Cousins: Similar to Stafford, comeback win after a pick 6.
Johnson: 121 total yards, no TD, fumble. Arizona is terrible, another loss.

Carr, Wilson, Johnson take big hits, probably eliminated (definitely Johnson, tho he was already a long shot).
Ryan solid, Cousins/Stafford mixed results, still in the hunt.
Big opportunity for the Dallas guys and Brady to take control.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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Well Adam didn't help his cause unless he pulls something out here. Elliott solid game but nothing crazy.

As stated above by someone else, if TB12 goes off the next two game I think it's his.
 

Oppo

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Big opportunity for the Dallas guys and Brady to take control.
Elliott with 100 yards, Prescott terrible
The only logical conclusion is that Brady will either be terrible or lead a game winning drive.
 

tims4wins

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Stafford also tore a ligament and their closing schedule is brutal, so I highly doubt he finishes strongly enough to win.

I think this comes down to Ryan and TB12
 

Koufax

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Elliott would seem to be very much in the mix.
 

Marciano490

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Elliott is the favorite in my estimation
Who's won MVP as a rookie or ROTY and MVP? Campbell and Brown and anyone else? I imagine the voters will treat it like the Cy Young or DPOY and figure rookies have their own award unless he's head and shoulders above everyone else. Seems like there's some appetite for a redemption arc for Brady among a fair amount of national media figures who are realizing how bananas DFG was.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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As much as there may be a redemption arc, there is another group that is trying to squash it

http://nesn.com/2016/12/nfl-now-twitter-patriots-snubs-tom-brady-in-mvp-deflategate/

As of a week ago, odds from bovada
Ezekiel Elliott 12-5
Derek Carr 7-2
Tom Brady 15-2
Matt Stafford 15-2
Matt Ryan 10-1
Russell Wilson 10-1
Dak Prescott 12-1
Matt Ryan looks really good to me at those odds. The Falcons play a soft schedule in the last three games (SF, @CAR, NO) and have a very good chance of winning out with Ryan putting up big numbers against some bad defenses without having to deal with any bad weather games. He is likely to end up at the top of a lot of traditional statistical categories (passer rating, TDs) and to lead his team to a division title and possibly a bye.

I can't see Brady winning it unless he really crushes the last four games, including big performances against both BAL and DEN. The combined weight of the "Hard to be most valuable over 12 games" (a legit argument IMO) and "Brady's a Cheater!!!" (obviously not a legit argument, but this group still exists) voting blocs is going to be too much to overcome.
 

Super Nomario

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It's weird because like three weeks ago we were like "what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers / Green Bay," but he's got an excellent shot here. Stats are typically great (65.1% completion, league-leading 32 TD passes vs 7 INTs, etc.), they've won three in a row, and if they can win out and get to 10-6 they have a great shot at the North. The Lions are 9-4 but play at Giants and at Cowboys the next two weeks, and the Packers won the head-to-head matchup earlier in the year. By the end of the season, a great chance he has a strong statistical case and a strong narrative case (look at all the injuries on D and RB!).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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It's weird because like three weeks ago we were like "what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers / Green Bay," but he's got an excellent shot here. Stats are typically great (65.1% completion, league-leading 32 TD passes vs 7 INTs, etc.), they've won three in a row, and if they can win out and get to 10-6 they have a great shot at the North. The Lions are 9-4 but play at Giants and at Cowboys the next two weeks, and the Packers won the head-to-head matchup earlier in the year. By the end of the season, a great chance he has a strong statistical case and a strong narrative case (look at all the injuries on D and RB!).
Agreed. I can see this coming down to Ryan v. Rodgers, with the big questions being whether they win their divisions and which edges ahead of the other in traditional stats where they are currently pretty close. I think I still like Ryan's chances, mainly due to schedule.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Ryan is most likely to win.
I think Rodgers is the best to wager money on (Bovada had him +3300 coming into the week)

The winner should be Kelechi Osemele.
 

djbayko

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Who's won MVP as a rookie or ROTY and MVP? Campbell and Brown and anyone else? I imagine the voters will treat it like the Cy Young or DPOY and figure rookies have their own award unless he's head and shoulders above everyone else. Seems like there's some appetite for a redemption arc for Brady among a fair amount of national media figures who are realizing how bananas DFG was.
bump
 

amarshal2

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I can't wait until voters talk themselves into some half rate QB over the greatest QB of all time playing at the top of his game.

It's Brady or Brady or Brady.

I would be annoyed if Rodgers won since Brady has been better but at least Rodgers is a deserving player. Stafford, Carr, and Ryan is just a boat load of LOL. Those guys aren't half the players of Brady and Rodgers.
 

Ed Hillel

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Rodgers won't win unless he tears up the stat sheet, they win out, and Ryan and Brady collapse.

Right now, I have Ryan and then Brady and that's all bullshit because I can't help but hold the four games he was robbed of against Brady. But if the Pats win out, I suspect Brady will win.
 

snowmanny

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I have always thought that if the best player plays on the team with the best record - in any sport - it's always stupid not to give him the MVP.

Edit: Also BTW Brady has won as many games as Ryan.
 

InstaFace

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Edit: Also BTW Brady has won as many games as Ryan.
But has he lost fewer?

This is a good hot-sports-take one-liner that I will borrow and use the next time the MVP comes up in conversation. It's a great way to dismiss this (isolated) comparison. Prescott would be harder.
 

coremiller

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There is precedent for winning the MVP while playing fewer games: Joe Montana won in 1989 despite playing in only 13 games. But he also was leading one of the best teams of all time and blew away the competition statistically -- he had a 112.4 passer rating (setting the record at the time) when no else was above 92. Brady doesn't have that sort of edge this year. Brady and Ryan are about even statistically rate-wise (113.6 vs 113.2 passer rating, 8.97 vs. 8.73 ANY/A, and through Week 13 Atlanta had played the hardest set of opposing defenses in the league according to Football Outsiders, while New England was 23rd (although that will change after playing the Ravens this week). Whether it's his fault that Brady didn't play in four games shouldn't be relevant -- the fact is that he didn't, and he hasn't blown away the field enough in the other games to make up for it. It's Ryan's award to lose right now.
 

Marciano490

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I wish there was a way to short bets. I'd bet against Zeke there. I'd also be comfy betting equal shares on Brady, Ryan and Rodgers. You only really 'lose' if Brady wins and then not that much. I can't see anyone else having a shot (which means someone else will win. You only get hurt when you think you have a sure thing).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I wish there was a way to short bets. I'd bet against Zeke there. I'd also be comfy betting equal shares on Brady, Ryan and Rodgers. You only really 'lose' if Brady wins and then not that much. I can't see anyone else having a shot (which means someone else will win. You only get hurt when you think you have a sure thing).
What am I missing? If you put $100 on each and Brady wins you still net out +$75, no?
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't understand Stafford having such high odds. What is his case?
His team is exceeding expectations, 9-4 leading the NFC North (projected to finish 3rd or last), 8 comeback wins, no run game at all and their line sucks. It isn't a great case, but basically it's QB playing well on unexpected 1st place team plus "clutch" winning drives.
 

Marciano490

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His team is exceeding expectations, 9-4 leading the NFC North (projected to finish 3rd or last), 8 comeback wins, no run game at all and their line sucks. It isn't a great case, but basically it's QB playing well on unexpected 1st place team plus "clutch" winning drives.
I thought his season stats were better than they are. He's tied with Brady for 22 TDs and isn't top 5 in yards, completion percentage or anything else important.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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His team is exceeding expectations, 9-4 leading the NFC North (projected to finish 3rd or last), 8 comeback wins, no run game at all and their line sucks. It isn't a great case, but basically it's QB playing well on unexpected 1st place team plus "clutch" winning drives.
The narrative is also probably bolstered by the retirement of Calvin Johnson, though of course, as Marciano points out, the numbers don't really seem to support a real case.
 

Super Nomario

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His team is exceeding expectations, 9-4 leading the NFC North (projected to finish 3rd or last), 8 comeback wins, no run game at all and their line sucks. It isn't a great case, but basically it's QB playing well on unexpected 1st place team plus "clutch" winning drives.
Their line isn't that bad but the D is awful. Eight comeback wins in one season is the all-time record already. If I had a vote, I'd probably go Stafford as MVP through the first 14 weeks. But the Lions have a tough schedule down the stretch (@ Giants, @ Cowboys, Packers) and Stafford has a dislocated middle finger, so I'm bearish on him down the stretch.

How does Wilson with a 13 TD / 10 INT ratio have the same odds as Dak?

Brady's odds are contingent on the field staying cluttered, I think. Right now you've got Dak and Zeke splitting the Cowboys vote, Ryan with the numbers, Stafford with the narrative, and Rodgers and Carr lurking. Brady's the best player in the league, but some voters will hold missing four games against him. As long as there are at least three/four other guys splitting the vote, that's not going to hurt him too much. But if Ryan or Rodgers or whoever pulls ahead of the rest of the field, it's going to be easy to anoint that guy and elevate him above a 12-game Brady.
 

Marciano490

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I'm basing this on nothing, but I think Brady's INT total might be the key to his MVP candidacy, if he can keep it at 2-3, I think he has a great shot. At 5 and up, someone else wins.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm basing this on nothing, but I think Brady's INT total might be the key to his MVP candidacy, if he can keep it at 2-3, I think he has a great shot. At 5 and up, someone else wins.
I think he needs a really strong showing in a win against Denver. Ryan has 3 easy matchups coming up so he'll have the numbers advantage over Brady unless he unexpectedly blows up. I think Ryan is a great value bet here.
 

dbn

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Looking at stats now, Brady and Ryan have surprisingly similar non-counting stats, for the most part. Brady has better sack and INT per game, whereas Ryan a bit better yds/attempt.

Code:
stat       Brady   Ryan
y/g        320     312
rating     113.6   113.2
td/g       2.44    2.31
comp pct   68.5    68.3
sacks/g    1.3      2.4
INT/g      0.22    0.54
yds/att    8.5     9.2
I'd give it to Ryan based on the more games played and the likelihood his numbers get better with the weak defenses he's still to face.
 

tims4wins

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As was pointed out, Brady has as many wins as Ryan. He may end up with more. If that happens it should go to Brady IMO
 

dbn

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Also, Prescott should not be in the discussion, whatsoever. For example, he is 21st in yds/game, behind the likes of #20 Blake Bortles, #19 Sam Bradford, and #17 Trevor Siemian.

edit: he's actually tied for 21st with Case Keenum and Bryan Hoyer.