2016 Eagles: Nothing But the Second Best
- Thread starter Oil Can Dan
- Start date
I like it for both teams. The Eagles are also paying $11m of Bradford's 2016 salary. I think Bradford is not good, but better than 36-year-old Shaun Hill and the Vikings are otherwise a playoff team. Bridgewater wasn't that good last year; he never threw downfield and got sacked a lot.
They can cut Bradford next offseason if Bridgewater is back without too much problem, or maybe another team will be desperate for a QB on a one-year deal.
Browns are happy.
They can cut Bradford next offseason if Bridgewater is back without too much problem, or maybe another team will be desperate for a QB on a one-year deal.
Browns are happy.
Great move for the eagles. When the trade was first announced, I figured they got about a 4th, not a 1st and a 4th
No, that is not correct.
It has not been 4 hours since this deal was announced, but at this point it is looking like I will have to call a doctor.
Some good buzz on Eagles boards about Howie did a nice job structuring Bradford's contract to make him easily tradeable should this situation come up. In fairness, he did a decent job and the ball bounced his way. I'll take it.
One man's opinion, but I am loving the 1999 vibe now.
One man's opinion, but I am loving the 1999 vibe now.
With the 2017 draft in Philadelphia it's good they got a first round pick for the Philly fans to boo.
What is your basis for that? Basically every statistical measure of NFL performance leans in Hill's direction. He completes a higher percentage of his passes, has a better TD/INT ratio, better in raw and adjusted Y/A, QB rating for whatever it is worth is better. He's a career backup, which is what Bradford would have been if he didn't have a crippling contract, he even performed similarly with a similar supporting cast the year he replaced Bradford in STL.
Fair question. I will get back to you with a longer answer later on as I have a bunch to do. Amazingly short answer is that you have to compare a healthy, 28 year old Bradford to a 36 year old, healthy Shaun Hill. I adore Shaun Hill as a backup QB and I think that Bradford is, at best, a third tier starter, but for the Vikings they feel that they need the marginal improvement.
Football Outsiders greatly prefers Bradford, both in DVOA and DYAR, certainly. More precisely, Bradford had 388 DYAR in 2012, 16th amongst QBs with 100+ passes in 2012, with a -0.8% DVOA, which was 16th. In 2013, he was 19th with 304 DYAR, but upped his DVOA to 5.2%, 14th. Hill's 2014 was much worse, ranking 34th of 44 among QBs with 100+ passes, with -46 DYAR (between immortals Colt McCoy and EJ Manuel), while 32nd in DVOA at -14.1%, behind the likes of Geno Smith.
I'm no expert on Shaun Hill but he was getting pretty roasted on the NFL Network (SiriusXM radio) yesterday. Host talked to a couple scouts who basically said Hill has lost most of his arm strength. One thing he did pretty well in the past was throw the deep ball but he can't do that anymore. Even his short passes have zero zip and the Minnesota coaches are really concerned about it. Both scouts said they'd probably make playoffs with the Shaun Hill from a few years ago (who they felt was serviceable), but not this 36 year old version.
Sam Bradford is great at football.
If you exclude the first fistful of weeks of the season, where Bradford had not played for two years and was shaking off rust, he comes out as Pro Football Focus's 7th-highest graded quarterback. (He finished 12th overall.) He was third in "accuracy percentage" and first in "accuracy percentage" under "pressure."
He completed 65% of his passes despite the dropsiest receiving corps in football. Substitute a league average Iggles drop rate and he completes 67% for ~3844 yards in 14 games. Extrapolate that to a full schedule and he throws for 4393 yards....
According to Football Outsiders' "Adjusted Interceptions" metric, which takes tipped balls and DB drops into consideration, Bradford was among the least fortuitous quarterbacks in the league last year with his turnovers. Even still, he has the sixth-lowest career interception rate in league history, trailing only Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, McNabb, Garcia, and "Neil O'Donnell." He pulled that stunt with the Rams.
If I'd said any of this shit about Teddy Bridgewater, people'd be licking his loins. The hot-take sports culture skewers Bradford 'cause of his big eyes or some shit, but Shaun Hill is unfit to carry that guy's awkwardly bulbous pads. This is a lateral movement at worst for Minny.
If you exclude the first fistful of weeks of the season, where Bradford had not played for two years and was shaking off rust, he comes out as Pro Football Focus's 7th-highest graded quarterback. (He finished 12th overall.) He was third in "accuracy percentage" and first in "accuracy percentage" under "pressure."
He completed 65% of his passes despite the dropsiest receiving corps in football. Substitute a league average Iggles drop rate and he completes 67% for ~3844 yards in 14 games. Extrapolate that to a full schedule and he throws for 4393 yards....
According to Football Outsiders' "Adjusted Interceptions" metric, which takes tipped balls and DB drops into consideration, Bradford was among the least fortuitous quarterbacks in the league last year with his turnovers. Even still, he has the sixth-lowest career interception rate in league history, trailing only Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, McNabb, Garcia, and "Neil O'Donnell." He pulled that stunt with the Rams.
If I'd said any of this shit about Teddy Bridgewater, people'd be licking his loins. The hot-take sports culture skewers Bradford 'cause of his big eyes or some shit, but Shaun Hill is unfit to carry that guy's awkwardly bulbous pads. This is a lateral movement at worst for Minny.
This was a great deal for the Eagles, and a good one for the Vikings. As semsox stated up thread, the key is the severity of Bridgewater's injury. There is no guarantee that he'll be ready to start next year, so the safest bet is bringing in someone like Bradford.
Howie Roseman has had a ridiculous trading record over the past few months.
Howie Roseman has had a ridiculous trading record over the past few months.
Last edited:
Interesting that FO is being cited when Schatz and Verhai were saying that Hill and Bradford are the same player except for salary:
I'll admit, "better" was probably hyperbole, however there is not much difference between the two, and Bradford doesn't bring some new skillset like a great deep ball or mobility. The idea that he's worth a first is crazy, it's a completely lateral move, and there is no way they should be going into next year hoping he's the QB, so age is mostly irrelevant, and given his injury history I'm not sure Bradford is the more likely QB to play 16 this year.
I'll admit, "better" was probably hyperbole, however there is not much difference between the two, and Bradford doesn't bring some new skillset like a great deep ball or mobility. The idea that he's worth a first is crazy, it's a completely lateral move, and there is no way they should be going into next year hoping he's the QB, so age is mostly irrelevant, and given his injury history I'm not sure Bradford is the more likely QB to play 16 this year.
Age is not mostly irrelevant when Hill has apparently lost his arm strength. Hill two years ago and Hill today are not the same player and any stats comparison is going to fail accordingly.
I have been busy and haven't checked, but apparently Vegas hasn't moved the Eagles O/U on wins or playoff odds since the trade. I am a bit more pessimistic, but that is interesting in and of itself.
I can't say I don't agree with the move, but I think Bradford is a pretty good QB and I thought Philly had a pretty good shot at the division before the trade. Now I feel like it's a total punt on the season.
How has Wentz looked? I've not seen one second of Eagles preseason ball so my statement is admittedly unsubstantiated. Surely Bradford is better than a 1st year guy from a small school, right?
Bradford wasn't the future, and even if they could have won the division--not out of the question with all the questions about the other teams in the NFCE--the Eagles weren't a threat to make a run in the playoffs. Wentz learning on the job can't really be characterized as punting the season since it pushes him closer to becoming the QB they'll need him to be to contend. Starting Daniel would have been.
I am not believing the hype around Wentz being the starter, just as I didn't believe it when they said that he would be inactive for the whole season. With that said, the rumors coming out of the Novacare has been that he has been ahead of schedule in terms of picking everything up, and commands the huddle very well. Whatever.
I would agree that Bradford would have probably been a better QB in 2016 than Wentz, but I don't know that the difference is more than 1, maybe 2 wins.
In truth, I am hopeful that they have Wentz as a backup for the first half of the season at least. I don't know that our line is good enough to appropriately protect Wentz.
Can we pause for a moment and thing about the last 15 months of Howie Roseman's life? Right here, right now, you have to take your hat off to the guy.
It's true that Sam Bradford is great at football -- he's something like the 25th-best QB on the planet. If that's enough to keep an otherwise stacked Vikings' team in the hunt for a playoff spot, the trade only costs them the 20th pick, give or take.
I don't like the talk of starting Wentz, esp game 1. If that's the route then let him get healthy and start him after the early bye in week 4.
Personally, with a dodgy offensive line, esp once Johnson is suspended officially, dodgy wide receivers and eh running game... I'd rather not rush wentz. Use the year to get him ready as planned.
Next year's running back class is out of control and this trade outs them in a position to add their stud rb to their new franchise qb. And of course draft is in Philly so I bet the NFL is delighted.
I think the team lives or dies by the defense. And it still does. Sorry. They are going to run the ball, use 3 te sets and that's regardless of Daniels or wentz.
You can't turn down that offer. If (if) Bradford is good the 4th turns into a 3rd if the Vikings make the NFC championship game and a second if they win the superbowl. That's unlikely esp the super bowl, but the NFC title game isn't impossible.
Bradford was gone next year regardless. So to get this for him is great.
The Browns probably are happy, but that team has nothing so...
But look what the Eagles in the end got wentz for. Foles and a 2nd got Bradford.
They moved up dumping a cb they didn't want. Maxwell.
The Browns got a third a fourth and a future first and sent a 4th back.
So bet the Eagles spent a third a fourth and a future first and got a fourth
Now the Eagles got back a 1st and a 4th.
So it's now foles (cut) , maxwell, and a 3rd for Wentz and a forth (and of course moving lower in the first most likely next year)
That massively lowers the gamble / investment in Wentz.
Elsewhere. They cut Goode which is mad as it means only 4 lb on the roster. Assume they resign him or pick up someone post cuts.
They cut their 4th te who had been poor. My guess is they pick up a cut te too.
They also have another space to open once lane Johnson is officially suspended. This delay is hurting. They kept means and Marcus Smith. And another dt I hadn't even heard of.
Super heavy d line. I think the other dt, destiny vaeao is the name, is gone as needed.
Cj Smith made the team, as did wr Turner who has had some camp. Dillon Gordon also made the team which is a surprise.
They need a lb and a te imo. So expect to see they pick at least one up now. They may well plan to resign Goode post Johnson suspension. That seems very plausible
Personally, with a dodgy offensive line, esp once Johnson is suspended officially, dodgy wide receivers and eh running game... I'd rather not rush wentz. Use the year to get him ready as planned.
Next year's running back class is out of control and this trade outs them in a position to add their stud rb to their new franchise qb. And of course draft is in Philly so I bet the NFL is delighted.
I think the team lives or dies by the defense. And it still does. Sorry. They are going to run the ball, use 3 te sets and that's regardless of Daniels or wentz.
You can't turn down that offer. If (if) Bradford is good the 4th turns into a 3rd if the Vikings make the NFC championship game and a second if they win the superbowl. That's unlikely esp the super bowl, but the NFC title game isn't impossible.
Bradford was gone next year regardless. So to get this for him is great.
The Browns probably are happy, but that team has nothing so...
But look what the Eagles in the end got wentz for. Foles and a 2nd got Bradford.
They moved up dumping a cb they didn't want. Maxwell.
The Browns got a third a fourth and a future first and sent a 4th back.
So bet the Eagles spent a third a fourth and a future first and got a fourth
Now the Eagles got back a 1st and a 4th.
So it's now foles (cut) , maxwell, and a 3rd for Wentz and a forth (and of course moving lower in the first most likely next year)
That massively lowers the gamble / investment in Wentz.
Elsewhere. They cut Goode which is mad as it means only 4 lb on the roster. Assume they resign him or pick up someone post cuts.
They cut their 4th te who had been poor. My guess is they pick up a cut te too.
They also have another space to open once lane Johnson is officially suspended. This delay is hurting. They kept means and Marcus Smith. And another dt I hadn't even heard of.
Super heavy d line. I think the other dt, destiny vaeao is the name, is gone as needed.
Cj Smith made the team, as did wr Turner who has had some camp. Dillon Gordon also made the team which is a surprise.
They need a lb and a te imo. So expect to see they pick at least one up now. They may well plan to resign Goode post Johnson suspension. That seems very plausible
I
1) played behind crappy O-lines for most of his career
2) played with mediocre talent around him for most of his career
3) has not been healthy
So when you take Hill and Bradford and say they are the same QB, I disagree. BrAdford's worst is equivalent to Hill's best. I think there have been enough good performances in the recent past to indicate that Bradford can be a third or maybe even second tier QB if playing behind a decent O-line and is healthy. Whereas Hill is struggling to put zip on the ball at this stage of the game.
Important note - I hate speaking ill of Shaun Hill. He's a former Maryland guy and did something very cool for an organization my sister in law was involved in when he was there. He has been a solidly pro and the dictionary definition of a superb backup QB. if the Vikings do well I hope Bradford gets hurt and he gets some end of career shine.
I owed you a response on this but I think most other folks have presented the stats. The thumb that is on the Sam Bradford scale is:
1) played behind crappy O-lines for most of his career
2) played with mediocre talent around him for most of his career
3) has not been healthy
So when you take Hill and Bradford and say they are the same QB, I disagree. BrAdford's worst is equivalent to Hill's best. I think there have been enough good performances in the recent past to indicate that Bradford can be a third or maybe even second tier QB if playing behind a decent O-line and is healthy. Whereas Hill is struggling to put zip on the ball at this stage of the game.
Important note - I hate speaking ill of Shaun Hill. He's a former Maryland guy and did something very cool for an organization my sister in law was involved in when he was there. He has been a solidly pro and the dictionary definition of a superb backup QB. if the Vikings do well I hope Bradford gets hurt and he gets some end of career shine.
Plus a huge cap hit this year (the $11mm they're picking up for Minny, plus whatever they were on the hook for in terms of signing bonus, etc.). It's more accurate to say they bought a 1st rounder than to say they turned Bradford into a 1st rounder.
I agree with your analysis, except I'd note that the Eagles were able to hedge their exposure on the Wentz bet precisely because the early returns are promising; if Wentz looked like Goff in training camp, I'm not sure you pull the trigger on that deal, knowing it could mean two years of Chase Daniel as your starting QB.
I agree with that assessment, but I would also note that Chip put us in a horrible situation that Howie seems to have repaired in a very short period of time. The $11MM hit made Bradford tradeable, and I would rather take hits this year during the rebuild.
It's not perfect but it is a lot better than it was. At least I hope so.....
It's not perfect but it is a lot better than it was. At least I hope so.....
I don't know what you can say about camp given he got hurt in a half of football, his only actual game action. He looked good at times but a rookie who made mistakes and needs to learn.
I don't get the rush for week 1, though it is the Browns.
I don't get the rush for week 1, though it is the Browns.
The Browns are well above anything he has seen before. I would be fine with him running a series late in the game, but I hope that this whole thing is a misdirection.
Good call -- Flacco was the Week 1 starter his rookie year and never looked back, so that's a better comp than McNair, who got a few starts as a rookie but didn't nail down the starting job until his third season.
I would think the jump from FCS to the pros would be too big to navigate successfully, but Flacco was one of the better rookie QBs in recent years. Of course, the Ravens protected him better than the Eagles will likely be able to protect Wentz.
So Turner was cut, as was Hart (very surprised by this- Sorry still get the anti Kelly guys vibe), I expect Turner to make the practice squad. I don't think this is a bad move as he's a slot guy, and the eagles have slot guys and need deep threats imo.
CJ Smith was also released, I think he too is a practice squad guy. Also impressed in preseason play.
These guys were cut to pick up three guys off the waiver wire, Treggs (WR) -is that speed deep threat, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill from the Pats. Can anyone give me a quick summary on him? I've no idea about him. But as 5th LB... I'm concerned. Finally they also added safety Terrance Brooks. Don't know much about him but the Eagles are deep at Safety and CB so seems totally bizarre.
Turner and Smith were bottom of the roster guys who I think make practice squad. Hart is a shocker, esp when keeping Destiny Vaeao on the roster. I thought Hart was doing very well, esp with a move to a new system. Dillon Gordon also stays. Both apparently they think won't make it through waivers... I have little idea why for Destiny, but Gordon... hmmm
Signed to the practice squad were
G Darrell Greene
WR Marcus Johnson
RB Byron Marshall
DT Aziz Shittu
WR David Watford
All sensible and not surprising.
edit: Gordon is interesting. As I said I thought they needed a forth TE but Gordon was a TE at LSU, he's been a monster in some plays at fullback, and there has been chatter from Jason Peters (an undrafted TE moved to tackle no less) that Gordon has similar athleticism and skills. I mean, that's a lot to ask but a monster blocking TE/ Fullback/ Developmental tackle - left tackle no less is some interesting role. He's totally over the top as fullback when he gets into the linebackers or god forbid the secondary
Look at this clip of him as fullback blowing up the LB. 322 FB
This one the Guard missing the block so the play dies but again look at him on the LB here
and by then people wanted nothing to do with him. I don't know who 40 is (he's been cut) but BAIL!
CJ Smith was also released, I think he too is a practice squad guy. Also impressed in preseason play.
These guys were cut to pick up three guys off the waiver wire, Treggs (WR) -is that speed deep threat, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill from the Pats. Can anyone give me a quick summary on him? I've no idea about him. But as 5th LB... I'm concerned. Finally they also added safety Terrance Brooks. Don't know much about him but the Eagles are deep at Safety and CB so seems totally bizarre.
Turner and Smith were bottom of the roster guys who I think make practice squad. Hart is a shocker, esp when keeping Destiny Vaeao on the roster. I thought Hart was doing very well, esp with a move to a new system. Dillon Gordon also stays. Both apparently they think won't make it through waivers... I have little idea why for Destiny, but Gordon... hmmm
Signed to the practice squad were
G Darrell Greene
WR Marcus Johnson
RB Byron Marshall
DT Aziz Shittu
WR David Watford
All sensible and not surprising.
edit: Gordon is interesting. As I said I thought they needed a forth TE but Gordon was a TE at LSU, he's been a monster in some plays at fullback, and there has been chatter from Jason Peters (an undrafted TE moved to tackle no less) that Gordon has similar athleticism and skills. I mean, that's a lot to ask but a monster blocking TE/ Fullback/ Developmental tackle - left tackle no less is some interesting role. He's totally over the top as fullback when he gets into the linebackers or god forbid the secondary
Look at this clip of him as fullback blowing up the LB. 322 FB
This one the Guard missing the block so the play dies but again look at him on the LB here
and by then people wanted nothing to do with him. I don't know who 40 is (he's been cut) but BAIL!
Last edited:
Apparently they felt that Vaeao would be immediately picked up and they wanted to retain him. Hart and Turner they apparently both feel have a good chance of being on the practice squad.
Rowe is supposedly being shopped aggressively, which may be why they added another DB. Tough to say.
Rowe is supposedly being shopped aggressively, which may be why they added another DB. Tough to say.
I just don't get the Rowe hate, he looked excellent late last year. So he's struggling to adjust to the new defence, I mean 2nd round pick who did fine, i never know what Roseman can get in return for players these days though. If you get a high pick sure, but seems odd to give up on him.
The odd thing about Vaeao is I didn't really hear much buzz and almost no one (i think) had him making the team. Let alone over Hart
The odd thing about Vaeao is I didn't really hear much buzz and almost no one (i think) had him making the team. Let alone over Hart
Rowe was not highly regarded at the end of last season for some reason. People kind of had the Pee Wee Herman - Dottie "I like you......liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike" vibe with Rowe, at best. I have to admit, when I watched last year's games I couldn't figure out who was doing well and who was doing poorly In the secondary because our safeties played really good football. My take on Rowe was that he could be pretty good, but the Eagles never called me on this one.
Yeah, Vaeao came from nowhere.
Yeah, Vaeao came from nowhere.
So apparently Wentz has been named the starter for Sunday and has taken all of the first team reps.
I'm going to the game and while I didn't want this to happen, I'm intrigued.
I'm going to the game and while I didn't want this to happen, I'm intrigued.
Raise your hand if you thought the Cowboys and Eagles would be starting rookies at QB on Week 1.
This is gonna be a wacky season.
You guys at least have a good O-line and a decent blocking RB who can keep your rookie QB alive though. But yeah, I feel like I am at a craps table right now.
I didn't exactly expect it, but it's hardly surprising that (a) Tony Romo is hurt, and (b) a team with a rookie coach and no real prospect of contending this season decided to start the 2nd overall pick over two journeymen.
I was surprised all along that the gambling community thought so highly of Dallas -- this division always figured to be a two-horse race between Washington and New York.
You had me with you until your final sentence (actually, I am still surprised that Wentz is starting, so I guess the last two, but the final sentence jumped out). The Giants are the dictionary definition of a 6-10 team and while I would agree that right now the Skins are probably the favorite to win the division, I would be shocked if they won 10 games (I am not a Cousins believer). We'll see though.
Once again, I find myself in agreement with Yammer. The division is wide open and it's entirely possible 8-8 would be enough to win it (full disclosure: I think the division champ will finish 9-7).
As for Romo, yeah it's not surprising that he got hurt. That he got hurt three plays into his first preseason action was the surprise. I expected him to at least make it to Week 5.
As for Romo, yeah it's not surprising that he got hurt. That he got hurt three plays into his first preseason action was the surprise. I expected him to at least make it to Week 5.