2015 Offseason- Where do we go from here?

Toe Nash · Jun 10, 2015

FL4WL3SS said:
Are those career stats?

I'd be interested to see playoff comps for Krejci/Soderberg/Bergeron. I don't think regular season possession stats tell the entire story and folks are undervaluing Krejci a bit.

Sorry for the delay but the stats I posted included the playoffs.

FL4WL3SS · Jun 10, 2015

cshea said:
If you're not paying Hamilton, who are you paying? I'd match probably up to the 4 first round pick level.

I'd also disagree that you don't need a #1 defenseman to win. Since the 04 lockout here I can only find 1, maybe 2, Stanley Cup winners without a #1 D.

06: Carolina- didn't really have one.
07: Anaheim- Niedermayer and Pronger
08: Detroit- Lidstrom
09: Pittsburgh- Letang
10: Chicago- Keith
11: Boston- Chara
12: LA- Doughty
13: Chicago- Keith
14: LA- Doughty
15: Chicago or Tampa- Keith/Hedman.

Letang can be debated. The rest are Norris winners. I'd argue that a bona fide #1 defenseman is the most important position to fill on a Stanley Cup winner.

My issue was with you saying you'd pay him 'pretty much anything'. I'm not doing that, there is a cap for which I'd feel comfortable with the Bruins spending before it becomes detrimental to the makeup of the rest of the team. I have no idea what that number is right now, but I'm pretty sure I'll know it when I see it.

FL4WL3SS · Jun 10, 2015

The Four Peters said:
If the Bruins walk away from an offer sheet on Dougie then I'm walking away. He's a franchise level 21 year old defenseman. He's exactly the type of player you spend your cap space on. I think a deal around Pietrangelo's sounds about right. I'd be thrilled with anything under 7/40 even though it's unlikely.

The worst idea is to go the Subban route I think. It'll set them up for the next couple years but then it'll cost them dearly. Is saving money for 2 years worth spending more for the next 5-8?

Bullshit.

behindthepen · Jun 10, 2015

cshea said:
It's hard to find comp's for Dougie, but here's what I've come up with. I only have the counting stats for now, but I will try and dig deeper into TOI and usage.

PK Subban- Drafted in 08, debuted in 10. Played ELC for age 21-23 seasons. ELC numbers; 160 games, 74 points. Signed the 2/$5.5 bridge deal before the monster 8/$72 he is currently on.

Tyler Myers: Drafted in 08, debuted in 09. ELC was age 19,20, 21 seasons. 108 points in 217 ELC games. 2nd contract was 7/$38.5.

Alex Pietrangelo: Also drafted in 08. Spent 2 more seasons in juniors before settling in with the Blues. ELC ran from ages 20-22. 207 games, 118 points. Second deal was the aforementioned 7/$45.

Drew Doughty: 08 draft (boy was that one loaded for D). Made the leap straight to the NHL. ELC was 18-20, 239 games, 135 points. Won a Cup in there. 8/$56 was deal #2.

Victor Hedman: drafted in 09, jumped straight to the NHL. 214 games, 69 points. Signed RFA deal of 5/$20.

Zach Bogosian: Drafted in 08, made the leap. 199 games, 59 points. His second deal was 2/$5.

Justin Faulk- 2nd round pick in 10. He's the best I could do post-lockout. No elite defenseman from the 10-12 drafts have come up yet as RFA's like Dougie. Faulk played a year of junior and 2 in the AHL before breaking in full time. His second contract is 6/$29.

These aren't perfect comps, but Dougie is unique. He's really the first elite defenseman to reach RFA status since the lockout.

Edit: Oops, forgot to include Dougie- ELC was age 19-21, 178 games, 83 points.

I've been trying to decide how elite Dougie is right now, and whether those comps are relevant. For reference, here are the D who played more than 40 games last season, aged 22 and younger. About 1/2 of them played Top 4 minutes this season (20+ TOI):

Nathan Beaulieu

Justin Faulk

John Klingberg

Adam Larsson

Martin Marincin

Jonathon Merrill

Jonas Brodin

Cody Ceci

Dougie Hamilton

Oscar Klefbom

Hampus Lindholm

Connor Murphy

Mathew Dumba

Seth Jones

Morgan Rielly

Rasmus Ristolainen

Damon Severson

Jacob Trouba

Nikita Zadorov

Aaron Ekblad

FL4WL3SS · Jun 10, 2015

cshea said:
Sure, "Pay pretty much anything" was a bit hyperbole, but to me, Hamilton is the kind of player you pay a premium for. Young #1 defenseman with Norris upside are hard to find.

I don't disagree, but there's a point where the compensation gets too high on both sides that the Bruins shouldn't turn it down.

Anyway, I think most folks are on the same page in this thread. If it gets to the multiple first round picks as compensation, the Bruins need to look long and hard at matching.

Toe Nash · Jun 10, 2015

War-on-ice has a similarity score function. Not perfect but fun to play with. http://war-on-ice.com/similarity-scores.html

If you turn up the age slider to get guys close to Dougie in age, you get in the top 20 similar seasons (note these would only be since possession stats were available):

Letang x2
Pietrangelo x2
Hamonic
Subban
Shattenkirk x2
Wisniewski
Hedman
Weber
Mike Green

I think you pay him.

McDrew · Jun 10, 2015

I know Shattenkirk was on the '09 BU Championship team, but his success at the pro level is completely unexpected. He was a good D man at BU, but something's clicked and he's taken the next step in the NHL. I thought that Gilroy (the Hobey winner) would have the better career, but he's in the KHL now.

Dummy Hoy · Jun 10, 2015

Well, Gilroy was 5 years older than Shattenkirk, so Shattenkirk still had upside while Gilroy was a finished product. He was also a much better defenseman than Gilroy, who was a converted forward.

McDrew · Jun 10, 2015

Yet they were only 2 years apart class year-wise, which I think makes that 5 year gap less directly noticable. I'm still surprised that Hobey winners have sputtered out recently. After Ryan miller won it in 2001, and Jordan Leopold won it in 2002, no winner from 2003-2013 has more than 50 goals at the NHL level, and only a couple have more than 82 games total. I will say Matt Carle's 43-230-273 in 660 games is a complete outlier from the rest). Five have between 0 and 10 NHL games played total.

Compare that to the CHL player of the year. Ryan Ellis, Eberley, Hodgson, Tavares, Radulov, and Crosby all won that league's MVP in that timespan, and are all seriously contributing members of their teams.

McDrew · Jun 10, 2015

That is a point I had not considered. I guess I'm more used to the football model of high school->college->NFL, since that's what I grew up in.

McDrew · Jun 12, 2015

http://thehockeywriters.com/ottawa-only-has-themselves-to-blame-for-losing-chris-wideman/?utm_content=buffer1b50e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Chris Wideman, the current winner of the Eddie Shore award for best AHL defensemean is a UFA this offseason. He has 0 NHL experience, but that looks to be more a function of the logjam ahead of him rather than his skill (OTT has 7 defenseman on one way deals in 2015 plus Cody Cici who is too good to be sent down).
He's a Krug-esque player (qb the pp, small, fast, puck-moving), and if the B's feel like that's a place where they can spend rather than pull up someone from Providence, that might be an option for a 6th dman after Chara/Seides/Krug/Miller/Dougie

That being said, Dougie's deal is going to dictate pretty much everything this offseason, so this might not even be a possibility

LogansDad · Jun 15, 2015

Haggerty (I know, I know...) discussing a potential Phil Kessel reunion with the Bruins. I say no, with the caveat that if the price is right and Toronto eats half the salary (another piece of wish casting that Haggerty has in the article) then he certainly upgrades the offense. Even then, I don't know how they fit him under the salary cap.

I don't think it happens in a million years, but it's something to think about....

PedroSpecialK · Jun 15, 2015

There are so many reasons as to why that wouldn't happen that I just have to congratulate Haggs on yet another click-generator

kenneycb · Jun 15, 2015

Chara for Kessel? Get it done ~~Theo~~ ~~Chia~~ ~~Ben~~ Sweeney!

McDrew · Jun 16, 2015

Haggerty's writing style involves him setting up a music stand with two sheets of paper, bending over, and violently shitting diarrhea in the vague direction of the pages.

BoSoxFink · Jun 17, 2015

So do we expect to see a significant trade or two from the Bruins in the next week before the draft next Friday?

McDrew · Jun 19, 2015

McQuaid has been hobbled by injuries the past two seasons. I think if he can stay healthy, he can be a solid 2nd-pair defenseman. I think Chara/Seidenberg/Hamilton/McQuaid is a perfectly fine top 4, and Miller/Krug is an ok bottom pairing that will get a lot of offensive zone starts and PP time (Krug, not Miller).

Lucic/Krecji/(FA)
Marchand/Bergeron/Smith
Eriksson/Spooner/Pastrnak
Connoly/Kelly/Talbot

Chara/Hamiton
Seidenberg/McQuaid
Krug/Miller

Rask/McIntyre

Now to figure out how I can fit that in the salary cap.

McDrew · Jun 19, 2015

Regardless of Dougie's contract, he can still be a paper move on day 1 to make the Bruins cap-compliant, right?

RIFan · Jun 19, 2015

AMcGhie said:
McQuaid has been hobbled by injuries the past two seasons. I think if he can stay healthy, he can be a solid 2nd-pair defenseman. I think Chara/Seidenberg/Hamilton/McQuaid is a perfectly fine top 4, and Miller/Krug is an ok bottom pairing that will get a lot of offensive zone starts and PP time (Krug, not Miller).

Lucic/Krecji/(FA)
Marchand/Bergeron/Smith
Eriksson/Spooner/Pastrnak
Connoly/Kelly/Talbot

Chara/Hamiton
Seidenberg/McQuaid
Krug/Miller

Rask/McIntyre

Now to figure out how I can fit that in the salary cap.

That second D pairing would be brutal against faster transition and forechecking teams. They are going to hope that Morrow makes a leap and can grab that spot given his ability to move the puck. A couple of minor quibbles with your line up. Connolly is a RW and is very unlikely to be on the 4th Line. I think he'll have 1st shot as Bergy's RW, with Pastrnak getting 1st shot with Krejci. I also can't think of any recent goalies who have gone right from Amateurs (JR or College) without some seasoning in the AHL, so I think McIntyre is a longshot to open with them. Smith played well in Prov and might get resigned to dual it out with Subban for the backup.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 19, 2015

McQuaid is what he is. A useful 3rd pair guy whose health cannot be counted on. Nothing wrong with brining him back, but expecting him to be a second pair guy would be a mistake.

BoSoxFink · Jun 19, 2015

Nothing wrong with bringing him back at the right price. But it better not be for more than between 2-3 million

kenneycb · Jun 19, 2015

Yeah, I love McQuaid but unless you're getting him for under $2m, he's the very definition if expendable. Especially if they're looking to get faster.

mcpickl · Jun 19, 2015

I'm surprised the Bruins are even in on McQuaid.

I like him as a bottom pair defensman, but I like Kevan Miller in that role too.

If you have them both, one has to play in your top four, or one is a healthy scratch.

That spot is where the Bruins need to be saving money.

catomatic · Jun 20, 2015

cshea said:
No need to bring him back. Trotman and Miller can fill that role for less than McQuaid would make.

Can they fight?

Dropkick Izzy · Jun 20, 2015

Kevan Miller can throw 'em pretty well. In fact, I think Travis Moen may still have a headache from their tussle last season.

catomatic · Jun 20, 2015

Dropkick Izzy said:
Kevan Miller can throw 'em pretty well. In fact, I think Travis Moen may still have a headache from their tussle last season.

Oh, yeah, I think I watched that game and was pleasantly surprised by his prowess. Nonetheless, I think McQuaid's presence in the mind of opponents is significantly larger and if they feel that is worth the $ and the roster spot, then that's what'll happen. They were pretty soft at times last season, I wouldn't be surprised if they felt they couldn't afford to get even softer.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 20, 2015

I don't think McQuaid has any presence in the mind of opponents. Other than maybe easy to beat.

I think Trotman is a significantly better player.

catomatic · Jun 21, 2015

Eddie Jurak said:
I don't think McQuaid has any presence in the mind of opponents. Other than maybe easy to beat.

I think Trotman is a significantly better player.

I would respectfully suggest that Trotman is benefitting from a very small sample size. McQuaid hasn't been 100% right since his injury but if you don't think that fighters or would-be transgressors on opposing teams aren't aware of McQuaid's mitts then I think you're completely wrong. And I think the team is materially different without someone who can fill that role. Who else intimidates?

McDrew · Jun 21, 2015

This is a great picture

Edit: I think McQuaid is going to get a better offer elsewhere and go there.

timlinin8th · Jun 22, 2015

catomatic said:
And I think the team is materially different without someone who can fill that role. Who else intimidates?

I think there are plenty of people on here who would be all for a "meterially different" Bruins team. The league has gotten faster and more skilled. Who intimidates? Who cares? Fighting is down across the league, and it is doubly useless in the playoffs when NOBODY fights. McQuaid was a limited player to begin with and injuries have made him lose another step.

Adam McQuaid making mean faces isn't going to compete with the Chicagos and Tampas of todays NHL.

catomatic · Jun 22, 2015

timlinin8th said:
I think there are plenty of people on here who would be all for a "meterially different" Bruins team. The league has gotten faster and more skilled. Who intimidates? Who cares? Fighting is down across the league, and it is doubly useless in the playoffs when NOBODY fights. McQuaid was a limited player to begin with and injuries have made him lose another step.

Adam McQuaid making mean faces isn't going to compete with the Chicagos and Tampas of todays NHL.

This team was how many seconds from taking that Chicago team to game 7? Kaspars Daugavins, anyone? Up 3-1 against the Chicago dynasty? There's a lot riding on one whiffed bunny, how easily the narrative spins another way. Health, advancing age, Horton/Iginla replacements…. these are the things that can make or break a season, but I'm not inclined to believe that a heavy style of play characterized by puck possession and defense-first play loses all effectiveness overnight. Personnel matters.

Toe Nash · Jun 22, 2015

They can still have a defense-first team that focuses on puck possession while not getting in as many fights. Over the past few years, the guys who fought the most were actually the worst on the team in puck possession (Thornton, Campbell).

If the identity of the team is punching people, they should think about changing that because it's leaving the game. Intimidation does nothing or else we would have beaten Montreal a lot more often the past few years.

lexrageorge · Jun 22, 2015

My reading into the comments by Sweeney is that the Bruins value McQuaid as a depth defenseman that is familiar with the system. And he is likely fully recovered from his injuries that have slowed him over the past two seasons. The ability to punch has some value over the course of the regular season. But I doubt that's really a major factor here.

McQuaid is hardly perfect, but I doubt he's any worse than the #6 defenseman on any other team either. The cost difference between McQuaid and a replacement could very well be minimal. In any event, I doubt it's going to make any difference in the team's ability to retain Hamilton.

TFP · Jun 22, 2015

The biggest issue with McQuaid is having him and Miller on the active roster at the same time. The two of them are extremely similar and should not both be in the lineup at the same time, as it completely drags down their D core to have one of them in two of the pairings, since you can't pair them together on the bottom pairing. On top of that, both are very injury prone, so committing to one of them isn't an easy choice either.

My preference is absolutely to let McQuaid walk, stick with Miller, and go from there. McQuaid provides nothing extra to justify the cost overrun that comes from him being a UFA. I also look forward to them treating Krug like a top 4 D, as he proved he was last year.

catomatic · Jun 22, 2015

I'm not in love with having them both on the roster either, I was playing Devil's Advocate here because playing with or without a puncher is a legitimate question for roster construction. We pushed Montreal around and they immediately felt the need to go and get Brandon Prust. If we're going to play a heavy game and yet have no one who will absorb any pushback from the opposing team then it's going to weaken the club overall. I don't want a team of Adam McQuaids by any stretch, but I don't want a team without a puncher, either.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 22, 2015

I think TFP has it righteous. Maybe McQuaid is a better defenseman than Miller. Or maybe that is just a matter of McQuaid being more experienced. Either way, they are redundant.

I don't think either of them is anything more than a bottom pair guy. I think Trotman has a better chance than either of them to be a second pair guy - he looked pretty solid playing with Chara down the stretch last year.(ie the team had much bigger problems at the time than Trotman's work on the top pair). I see a potential future for him where I don't really for the other two.

lexrageorge · Jun 22, 2015

Quick question: if Sweeney categorically said the team is not bring back any of the team's UFA's under any circumstances, would he be criticized for closing doors prematurely on potential roster options?

In that vein, one reason for the statement is that Sweeney is trying to avoid doing just that. A guy like Miller could be a complementary trade piece in a larger deal involving Lucic, Erickkson, or perhaps Chris Kelly or Savard's contract. In which case having McQuaid back at a reasonable price could very well be a good thing. Granted, players like McQuaid or Miller are easy enough to find, but, again, I'm not sure it would make sense for the team to completely rule out McQuaid as an option at this point in time. His situation is not equivalent to those of Campbell or Paille.

McDrew · Jun 23, 2015

https://twitter.com/JeffMarek/status/613376796097126400

Ferm Sheller · Jun 23, 2015

I got a phone alert indicating that Zane McIntyre and the B's agreed on a 2-year deal today.

PedroSpecialK · Jun 23, 2015

Yup it's official

TSC · Jun 25, 2015

http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/785838

Vancouver has apparently inquired about Lucic.

2015 Offseason- Where do we go from here?

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