2015-2016 Celtics regular season
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Agreed. I'm not sure who our "bench" is, but I am sure most teams would trade the talent they have on their bench for what the Cs have on theirs. Think Doc would like to have half the talent on his bench in LA? Their trade value though isn't that high. And Danny should only accept back players of value.
Few teams have anything of value to the Cs that would make Danny want to send even Jonas packing. I think this team stays pretty identical to what it is now through this season. Which is great for development and even better for the future.
It's easier when you don't have any stars because you can have a slew of guys on MLE contracts, whereas the Clippers can't thanks to the presence of CP3, Griffin, and DAJ. You saw this in Boston during the Pierce/Garnett era when they had to carefully plan future acquisitions of bench depth over multiple seasons.
We all agree the league is shifting. The point is that even after accounting of that shift, the Celtics are way towards the back. That's why I'm not relying on "playing 36+ minutes", but rather the Celtics relative rank in the league in MPG by their top starter. It's not just teams with perennial all-stars playing their top guys more: it's everyone.
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Nothing definitive. Ainge is asked about it each Thursday morning on his weekly Toucher & Rich appearance. On Dec. 3rd, he said it would be "a couple more weeks". Last week, I think he said something like, he's rehabbing and doing well, but needs probably at least another week. I think 10 days from now, by Christmas, should be about right.
The entire East is inferior angle was so overplayed last season. The West was superior due to so many EC teams losing their star player and go-to guy. Carmelo in NY, Bosh in MIA, and George in IND......then Detroit added Jackson, Charlotte got Batum, the Magic matured a year while signing the perfect short term coach for them in Skiles. There really isn't anything surprising about the shift of power from last season if you look back on what occurred since the end of last season.
It's also December, when 7 teams are separated by 2 games in the standings. A bit early to look at seedings with such precision.
Danny admits on radio today that the Celtics need a go-to scorer, especially at the end of games. He's right about that.
LINK: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2015/12/boston_celtics_rumors_2015_dan_10.html
LINK: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2015/12/boston_celtics_rumors_2015_dan_10.html
We are better since the Isaiah acquisition however he is a guy who takes advantage of teams lapses which don't typically occur down the stretch of tight games. The result is we have a 5'9 guard looking to get shots off against much longer defenders.
I don't see anyone coming on the market at the deadline who fits our need however the one guy to step into Pierce's shoes who will be a FA this summer is DeMar DeRozen. All FA will be overpays anyway by definition of it being an open market but this summer even more so with virtually every team well under the cap. This makes our "cap space" carry even less value than it did last year when the "prize" was a role player such as Amir Johnson........but DeRozen is THE one guy who fills one huge hole while allowing others to play within their role offensively. Our opponents have shot nearly 20% more FTA than we have this season which is consistent with the trend last year.....DeRozan gets to the line as much as anyone in the league which would help mitigate this huge disadvantage every night.
I expect a more attractive destination, such as going back home to the Lakers, to max him out but if ever the supposed value of Stevens and our culture is real to a FA (I'm not convinced at all) this would be it.
HRB, two questions. Was Thomas on anyone's radar, as a target, at this time last year? Also, you had me excited last year about potentially nabbing Draymond Green. Is it likely that Derozan won't be made a Draymond type offer?
Isaiah was bitching about not starting last year in Phoenix and there was talk of one of the Suns guards being moved not necessarily Isaiah though. Toronto would be foolish to NOT offer DeRozan the max......it's a matter of where DeMar wants to play. He's going to get paid.
The problem with Lil' Zeke in Phoenix is the same one that Boston will have with him in the future. He is much better suited to coming off the bench where his defensive issues can be hidden than starting, but that he demands to start. I think he's always going to be one of those guys that wears out his welcome once teams are good enough to compete and can bring him off the bench (or even if they're not ready to compete and just have a good enough backcourt to use him properly).
Several game thread quotes (i.e.; http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/12-18-vs-atlanta.12222/page-2#post-1511468) suggest the current losing is to be expected.
Still, it's been ugly. So I wonder ..
* Where did Avery Bradley go? His defense is becoming Rondoish (not fighting through picks, going for the steal rather than constant pressure). If he was hitting his shots, that might be tolerable (rather than bricking T's )
* Is Olynck really this inconsistent? Scores 20+ a few nights in a row, then disappears (or is responsible for 3 turnovers in a row)?
* Is Amir J tanked? His impacts seem minimal.
* Why is Jerebeko ahead of anyone. Except for the 4th quarter in Detroit, he is just about guaranteed to do something useless and/or dumb.
I do wonder: maybe missing Smart is really hurting. This is an energy, especially defensive energy, team -- so that even when they lose they are gratifying to watch.
Smart maybe their best, in a defensive energy sense, player.
WIll his return right this ship?
Still, it's been ugly. So I wonder ..
* Where did Avery Bradley go? His defense is becoming Rondoish (not fighting through picks, going for the steal rather than constant pressure). If he was hitting his shots, that might be tolerable (rather than bricking T's )
* Is Olynck really this inconsistent? Scores 20+ a few nights in a row, then disappears (or is responsible for 3 turnovers in a row)?
* Is Amir J tanked? His impacts seem minimal.
* Why is Jerebeko ahead of anyone. Except for the 4th quarter in Detroit, he is just about guaranteed to do something useless and/or dumb.
I do wonder: maybe missing Smart is really hurting. This is an energy, especially defensive energy, team -- so that even when they lose they are gratifying to watch.
Smart maybe their best, in a defensive energy sense, player.
WIll his return right this ship?
Isaiah has not bitched about not starting in Boston, and once Smart went down he has shown that he can start. To me he has played well enough as a starter that it is an open question of whether they are better off with Thomas or Bradley starting once Smart comes back. (Smart should start once he is back and able to play starter minutes, in part for his defense and in part because either of the other two would be a better source of second unit offense). One of the really good things they were starting to do when Smart went down was use Isaiah as a catch and shoot guy in some sets, with Smart driving and dishing to him for open threes. That's a weapon we haven't seen much of since he went out.
Once Smart is healthy enough to play unrestricted minutes, he should go back into the starting lineup with Isaiah, with Bradley coming off the bench.
Smart and Thomas complement each other better than some of the other combos, because Thomas can handle the ball but is also a great catch and shoot guy. Right before Smart got hurt, the C's were starting to run plays for Smart to drive and kick to Isaiah for open catch and shoot threes and it was working well.
Turner is tall and is at his most effective with the ball in his hands; and he's an awful 3 point shooter. This means he fits best with Bradley. Defensively, AB can guard PGs with Turner taking a wing player. Offensively, AB is not a ballhandler/facilitator but he is a shooter. So he can work well with Turner, who needs the ball and can't shoot.
Smart played with Turner when he came off the bench in the first half last night. This is not ideal because Smart moves Turner off the ball to some extent, making Turner less effective. And you sure as heck don't want Smart to drive and then kick to Turner for an open 3. Smart is a streaky otuside shooter but he is less consistent in that role than Bradley so he doesn't complement a ballhandling Turner as well as Bradley would.
Also, they need to limit Lee's ability to hurt the team. They are 15-12 with Lee in the lineup and 3-1 with him out of it - and the one loss was a 3 point loss to the Spurs (the second best team in the league). Add in the fact that he makes every player on the roster worse, and there just isn't room for him on this team. I think both of the lat 2 wins would have been losses had Lee gotten any minutes. They need to trade him (if anyone will take him at this point), buy him out, or send him home. His contract money is a sunk cost.
With Smart back, they need to go small more. More Jae/Jonas at the 4, and more use of Thomas/Smart/Bradley lineups.
And Jae Crowder is an absolute steal at $35 million for 5 years. He was good last year and I think he's playing better basketball now than he did then.
Smart and Thomas complement each other better than some of the other combos, because Thomas can handle the ball but is also a great catch and shoot guy. Right before Smart got hurt, the C's were starting to run plays for Smart to drive and kick to Isaiah for open catch and shoot threes and it was working well.
Turner is tall and is at his most effective with the ball in his hands; and he's an awful 3 point shooter. This means he fits best with Bradley. Defensively, AB can guard PGs with Turner taking a wing player. Offensively, AB is not a ballhandler/facilitator but he is a shooter. So he can work well with Turner, who needs the ball and can't shoot.
Smart played with Turner when he came off the bench in the first half last night. This is not ideal because Smart moves Turner off the ball to some extent, making Turner less effective. And you sure as heck don't want Smart to drive and then kick to Turner for an open 3. Smart is a streaky otuside shooter but he is less consistent in that role than Bradley so he doesn't complement a ballhandling Turner as well as Bradley would.
Also, they need to limit Lee's ability to hurt the team. They are 15-12 with Lee in the lineup and 3-1 with him out of it - and the one loss was a 3 point loss to the Spurs (the second best team in the league). Add in the fact that he makes every player on the roster worse, and there just isn't room for him on this team. I think both of the lat 2 wins would have been losses had Lee gotten any minutes. They need to trade him (if anyone will take him at this point), buy him out, or send him home. His contract money is a sunk cost.
With Smart back, they need to go small more. More Jae/Jonas at the 4, and more use of Thomas/Smart/Bradley lineups.
And Jae Crowder is an absolute steal at $35 million for 5 years. He was good last year and I think he's playing better basketball now than he did then.
A year ago I penned a whiny post about there not being any very good players on the Celtics. While that might still be true, there are now some players that are verging on that status, including Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk. It has been a pleasure to see the improvement in each of them. Avery seems to be the most improved. Last year he was a shooting guard who could not shoot. Now he can. Big, big difference.
Best Avery has played since that 20 game stretch when Ray Allen was hurt and he looked like a legit upgrade.
I'm starting to come around on Bradley. While I've always been high on the Celtics' talent level, Bradley was someone who felt like had a collection of misfit skills that didn't make for a particularly good player (someone who couldn't handle the ball, but didn't have the length to really guard most 2s). His emergence as a good (maybe very good) shooter has really mitigated those concerns.
It doesn't hurt that he gets a ton of open looks. For the life of me I can't believe how many open looks the Celts get.
Bradley's late-onset shooting ability gives me some hope for Sullinger, who is vying for Antoine Walker status (minus the volume) on that end.
They work really hard to get those looks. I went to a Magic game last week and that team is like the anti Celtics on offense. They can't run a pick and roll and Elfrid comes down the court in Rondoish fashion looking around at guys and no one moves.
Orlando plays really hard on D and I like quite a few of their players but their offense is painful to watch.
Bradley is also shooting a lot more three-pointers this year than in year's past; almost 45% of his field goal attempts are three-pointers this year. His .396 three-point shooting percentage is a bit over his career percentage (.366) thanks to the good looks. The volume of three-pointers also makes a nice difference in his true-shooting percentage: .554 this year, .510 career.
Percentage of FGAs that are 3 Pointers (3P FG% in parentheses):
2010-11: .075 (.000)
2011-12: .134 (.407)
2012-13: .264 (.317)
2013-14: .242 (.395)
2014-15: .348 (.352)
2015-16: .447 (.396)
He's taking less long 2's also: .351 of his field goal attempts are 2's are from 10 ft or further this year (career.423).
Percentage of FGAs that are 3 Pointers (3P FG% in parentheses):
2010-11: .075 (.000)
2011-12: .134 (.407)
2012-13: .264 (.317)
2013-14: .242 (.395)
2014-15: .348 (.352)
2015-16: .447 (.396)
He's taking less long 2's also: .351 of his field goal attempts are 2's are from 10 ft or further this year (career.423).
That is the trademark of a Scott Skiles overachieving team. They sacrifice offense for a stifling defense. It isn't usually pretty but it got a Brandon Jennings/John Salmons-led team to 46 wins and 7 games of a playoff series......that needs a minute to simmer and sink in. This was after taking over a 25-win Bulls team, implement his system and approach to a squad whose leading scorers were Kirk Hinrich and Eddy Curry that turned them into a 47-win team that won a few playoff games.
It's no surprise he's taken a 25-57 team and has them at 17-13 even with such a young team who has never experienced success. Head Coaches in this league rarely win Championships or make a difference with a legit contender......mega superstars do that. Head Coaches can take underachieving teams or bad teams and make them respectable with a culture change and a focus on the defensive end. Skiles, Stevens, Clifford, etc are some examples of that.
If only AB could figure out consistency (btw: AB starting might make sense, since he seems to be best in the 1st quarter)!
SImilarly, KO has been a bit of a relevation, but he can turn in some stinkers.
Hopefully consistency comes with time. Though there is a the pessimistic alternativeo -- poorly played games are correlated with playing against somewhat better defenses
Crowder is actually an inspiration -- he started out the season slow (scoring wise), and now he is a force!
Most shocking: ET seems to have figured out his limitations, and is playing accordingly. I don't cringe whenever he touches the ball.
And really, whois worse: Lee or Jerebko. Lee can blame it on age, but wtf is Jerebkos problem (mistakes, fouls, and low shooting percentage -- what is there to like)?
The biggest problem with Jerebko seems to be he is not hitting his 2 pt shots (.358 2 pt shooting percentage!) and is taking more long 2's. He's also turning the ball over more.
Jerebko this year (career in parenthesis):
.482 true shooting percentage (.545 career)
.358 2 point shooting percentage (.502 career)
.215 % of FGA that are 2 pt shots 16 ft or further (.128 career)
Oddly enough, he is shooting .423 on 3's (.347 career).
Jerebko this year (career in parenthesis):
.482 true shooting percentage (.545 career)
.358 2 point shooting percentage (.502 career)
.215 % of FGA that are 2 pt shots 16 ft or further (.128 career)
Oddly enough, he is shooting .423 on 3's (.347 career).
I think the problem with Jerebko is usage. His skills work best as an undersized 4 (or even 5), where he can stretch the defense and shoot or drove around the big guys if they come out to challenge his shot.
This year, he's mostly played as an oversized wing. Offensively, he has no post game for use on smaller defenders. Defensively, he's forced to guard such players which doesn't work that well. (Wings can beat him the same way he beats taller, slower bigs when he is at the 4 or 5.)
If they can get back to more small lineups, Jerebko will be more of an asset off the bench.
This year, he's mostly played as an oversized wing. Offensively, he has no post game for use on smaller defenders. Defensively, he's forced to guard such players which doesn't work that well. (Wings can beat him the same way he beats taller, slower bigs when he is at the 4 or 5.)
If they can get back to more small lineups, Jerebko will be more of an asset off the bench.
I see Bradley's hot-start-then-fade MO as another argument for bringing him off the bench. He's pretty good at stepping right into the game and knocking down shots, that kind of game should play just as well, or better, in a bench role.
Eddie Jurak covered this, he's spending more more time at the SF spot this year than last. Last year he spent nearly all his time at the PF spot and very little time at the SF spot (he spent more time as a C than a SF). This year he's been a swing forward rather than a smallball 4/5 and he's just not very good at the SF spot, and the 4/5 is too crowded this year for him to get much time there.
I wouldn't read too much into the position thing - he's only spent 8% of his time at SF this year.
Jerebko has 405 minutes this year, including 88 minutes in lineups with both Lee and Olynyk. That is at least 22% of his minutes at SF, no?
This is a good catch. I was using Basketball-Reference's position estimates (which say 8%), but their estimates are just based on relative height (e.g., the 3rd tallest player is always coded as the SF). That's usually fine, and I thought it wouldn't be an issue on the Celtics for Jerebko, but forgot he's listed at 6'10" to David Lee's 6'9". So when they play together, BBRef thinks Jerebko is playing the 4, and Lee is playing is the 3.
And lo and behold, Lee is coded as having played 21% of his minutes at SF this year.
Interesting! So here's what I've got:
Jerebko as SF for 8% of his 405 minutes (this must consist entirely of lineups with Zeller and Olynyk): 32 minutes
Lee as SF for 21% of his 429 minutes: 90 minutes
Amir as SF for 4% of his 682 minutes: 27 minutes
Sully not listed with any minutes at SF: 0 minutes
Mickey at SF for 52% of his 6 minutes: 3 minutes
That's a total of 179 minutes, or 44% of Jerebko's minutes this season.
It could be a little bit lower than that, but not much - I don't think the C's have given (m)any minutes to lineups with 3 of their legit bigs (eg, Sully/Johnson/Olynyk, etc.) which is the only way other than Jerebko at the 3 that Lee, Amir, and Mickey would have been called SFs.
Jerebko as SF for 8% of his 405 minutes (this must consist entirely of lineups with Zeller and Olynyk): 32 minutes
Lee as SF for 21% of his 429 minutes: 90 minutes
Amir as SF for 4% of his 682 minutes: 27 minutes
Sully not listed with any minutes at SF: 0 minutes
Mickey at SF for 52% of his 6 minutes: 3 minutes
That's a total of 179 minutes, or 44% of Jerebko's minutes this season.
It could be a little bit lower than that, but not much - I don't think the C's have given (m)any minutes to lineups with 3 of their legit bigs (eg, Sully/Johnson/Olynyk, etc.) which is the only way other than Jerebko at the 3 that Lee, Amir, and Mickey would have been called SFs.
I don't know if you wrote it here or elsewhere about liking to watch warm ups but I got to the game early and Harden was the only player I saw really working before the game and coming out at half. I mean an hour before the game he was out there taking a lot of shots. Marcus Thornton was out for a while but Harden was out the longest. I was impressed by this.
This Orlando roster was, more or less, made for Skiles. It's loaded with young, athletic players that can play defense with proper direction. And they have so many of them that they can, like Boston, just keep coming at you all night long. I don't think either team makes it out of the first round (as presently constituted), but they're both going to die trying.
Yes, I love getting to games when the doors open you get such a good feel for the players work ethic by their approach in the 60-90 minutes before the game and during halftime. That is impressive about Harden considering it was the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights with travel following each game and their 9th game in 14 days while he is playing heavy minutes each night. In fairness to others we don't know what their workout was during shootaround or pre-game prior to the doors opening but I look for how the players approach the time they have on the floor pregame and halftime even more than who is out there for this reason.
Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach 37s38 seconds ago
Source said David Lee will likely sign w/new team by weekend. Several teams have shown interest. Lee and Celtics did reach buyout agreement.
Source said David Lee will likely sign w/new team by weekend. Several teams have shown interest. Lee and Celtics did reach buyout agreement.
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 7m7 minutes ago
The Dallas Mavericks are significant frontrunners for free agent David Lee, who was waived by Boston, league sources tell The Vertical.
Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42 5m5 minutes ago
2 big benefits for Boston with the David Lee buyout, open roster spot and $23m cap hold in July is off the books.
The Dallas Mavericks are significant frontrunners for free agent David Lee, who was waived by Boston, league sources tell The Vertical.
Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42 5m5 minutes ago
2 big benefits for Boston with the David Lee buyout, open roster spot and $23m cap hold in July is off the books.
