2014 Michigan Football: Dammit Jim, we need a Harbaugh. And a miracle worker.
- Thread starter WayBackVazquez
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You guys will win; the PSU offensive line can't contain anything with two legs so them scoring again is a far-fetched idea.Dgilpin said:
No. I prefer the win. But the image of Gardner hobbling around the entire fourth quarter like the Karate Kid... ack. At least the defense showed a lot of life. And now we know that our third-string quarterback is not someone who should ever be in a game. I did not know you could do an onside kick after a safety.
I'm married to a Penn Stater, and her parents also went there and still go to the games...so I feel the same. I just wish that call wasn't a factor bc I don't think penn st would have won anyway, and now I'm hearing about the call instead of the Mich win.Dgilpin said:
Sadly, I don't think Four and Out will be written, but the Brady Hoke postmortem would be pretty interesting in its own right. What would a hypothetical Hoke defender say?
Also, we still agree Hoke is finished, yes? There's no scenario short of winning out where he comes back, right...?
Also, we still agree Hoke is finished, yes? There's no scenario short of winning out where he comes back, right...?
Bad calls happen, and bad calls at the wrong time become conspiratorial, but "even" only works where you can forget 2005: adding unexplained seconds to the clock on the final drive (0:01 when last play was run) and the failure to review Avant being out of bounds. The refs did a lot to help them down the field on that drive. At least I'm over it......Average Reds said:
Saturday's game was emblematic of the 2014 Big Ten. I can only wonder what some of these SEC teams would do to them.
I'd point out the horrible clock management (e.g., the utterly unnecessary TO just before the safety), the complete lack of OL protection/blocking, and overall inability to produce any sustained offensive pressure after the first quarter. But do you want to be right or happy?twibnotes said:
Fred in Lynn said:Bad calls happen, and bad calls at the wrong time become conspiratorial, but "even" only works where you can forget 2005: adding unexplained seconds to the clock on the final drive (0:01 when last play was run) and the failure to review Avant being out of bounds. The refs did a lot to help them down the field on that drive. At least I'm over it......
We could spend time discussing how JoPa got undeserved time put back on the clock during PSU's last drive; how Michigan's "unexplained" time put back on the clock should have been four seconds instead of two, which is when the timeout was actually called; how at least a second was run off the clock after both Tyler Ecker and Manningham went out of bounds after their catches AND after the penultimate incomplete pass to Breaston.
But at the end of the day, what difference does it make? All PSU's wins from that season were vacated anyway.
Fred in Lynn said:Bad calls happen, and bad calls at the wrong time become conspiratorial, but "even" only works where you can forget 2005: adding unexplained seconds to the clock on the final drive (0:01 when last play was run) and the failure to review Avant being out of bounds. The refs did a lot to help them down the field on that drive. At least I'm over it......
Saturday's game was emblematic of the 2014 Big Ten. I can only wonder what some of these SEC teams would do to them.
I have seen enough horrible calls to not mind my team being on the fortunate end of one.
It looked like a BS offsides call. And I will take it anyway.
Speaking of official madness, the SEC had this to say about Alabama's false start penalty that allowed them to run out the clock against Arkansas:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24750999/sec-admits-clock-ran-in-error-at-end-of-alabama-arkansas-game
Same thing happened at Rutgers, preventing Michigan from having the same opportunity Arkansas was denied. Not that this offense would have done anything with the opportunity. But with the NCAA's first-down clock-stop rule, you never know, because it opens up the entire field.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24750999/sec-admits-clock-ran-in-error-at-end-of-alabama-arkansas-game
Same thing happened at Rutgers, preventing Michigan from having the same opportunity Arkansas was denied. Not that this offense would have done anything with the opportunity. But with the NCAA's first-down clock-stop rule, you never know, because it opens up the entire field.
bowiac said:
I wouldn't die of shock if he's brought back after 7-6 (provided one of the wins is at East Lansing or Columbus). 8-5, and I'd almost expect it.
You're not exactly offering groundbreaking analysis. Nobody's expecting them to win either game, but this is kind of how hypotheticals work.
At 8-5, it would mean the team finished very strong, likely beating at least two ranked teams on the road, or neutral sites. I'd probably prefer a stable regime than change for the sake of change in that case.
This team is not very talented. Notre Dame and Utah are actual good teams; it may be that Minnesota is, too. And but for the failure to kick a field goal, they beat Rutgers. If you want to fire Hoke because you don't think he takes concussion safety seriously enough, okay, I guess? But in the fantasy world where he beats MSU and OSU on the road, I'm keeping him around.
This team is not very talented. Notre Dame and Utah are actual good teams; it may be that Minnesota is, too. And but for the failure to kick a field goal, they beat Rutgers. If you want to fire Hoke because you don't think he takes concussion safety seriously enough, okay, I guess? But in the fantasy world where he beats MSU and OSU on the road, I'm keeping him around.
I think you've been a little too focused on the concept that fans and alumni comprise a monolithic creature that has power.
The Michigan coach has to win. Losses to Ohio State hurt a lot more. Rich Rodriguez would have been popular if he hadn't lost a massive assload of games. Compared to Rodriguez, Brady Hoke looks like Bear Bryant.
And still, Hoke is going through a stretch of unacceptable. He'd have to lose 26 more games in a row to match the giant sack of everlasting suck that was Rich Rodriguez.
So, we don't demand anything but a respect of tradition. And Michigan tradition means winning games. Hoke's a little better at understanding that. Rodriguez didn't seem to get that Big Ten wins and championships mean more than non-conference stuff. He wouldn't know that Michigan went 30-2-1 over a three-year stretch in the '70s and never played in a bowl game because the two losses and the tie were against Ohio State. Hoke would know that.
Would Hoke save his job by going 5-1 down the stretch? Probably. Especially if the 1 wasn't Ohio State. And if the team looked solid - not like it has this season at all. Since there's an empty space where we should have a quarterback, I don't see this turning around.
This stuff about Dave Brandon is all about winning football games. He's on the hot seat because he hired Hoke. But the Hoke hire was the right call at the time.
Really, it's a lot simpler than you make it out to be. Rodriguez was fired for losing... a lot. He lost 11 times at Michigan Stadium in just three years. His predecessor lost 12 home games in 13 seasons. Carr was 81-23 in conference play. Rodriguez was 6-18. This wasn't about support of the program - Michigan gets more support in one week than most of the NCAA gets in an entire year. Alumni don't go to practices and teach scheme. Rodriguez fucked this job as no one has ever fucked up a job all by himself.
I think Hoke can coach. But you can't allow your team to go into a season without a competent quarterback in today's major college playing field - not unless you're running the wishbone. And that mistake will likely cost both him and Brandon jobs.
twibnotes said:
I think you've been a little too focused on the concept that fans and alumni comprise a monolithic creature that has power.
The Michigan coach has to win. Losses to Ohio State hurt a lot more. Rich Rodriguez would have been popular if he hadn't lost a massive assload of games. Compared to Rodriguez, Brady Hoke looks like Bear Bryant.
And still, Hoke is going through a stretch of unacceptable. He'd have to lose 26 more games in a row to match the giant sack of everlasting suck that was Rich Rodriguez.
So, we don't demand anything but a respect of tradition. And Michigan tradition means winning games. Hoke's a little better at understanding that. Rodriguez didn't seem to get that Big Ten wins and championships mean more than non-conference stuff. He wouldn't know that Michigan went 30-2-1 over a three-year stretch in the '70s and never played in a bowl game because the two losses and the tie were against Ohio State. Hoke would know that.
Would Hoke save his job by going 5-1 down the stretch? Probably. Especially if the 1 wasn't Ohio State. And if the team looked solid - not like it has this season at all. Since there's an empty space where we should have a quarterback, I don't see this turning around.
This stuff about Dave Brandon is all about winning football games. He's on the hot seat because he hired Hoke. But the Hoke hire was the right call at the time.
Really, it's a lot simpler than you make it out to be. Rodriguez was fired for losing... a lot. He lost 11 times at Michigan Stadium in just three years. His predecessor lost 12 home games in 13 seasons. Carr was 81-23 in conference play. Rodriguez was 6-18. This wasn't about support of the program - Michigan gets more support in one week than most of the NCAA gets in an entire year. Alumni don't go to practices and teach scheme. Rodriguez fucked this job as no one has ever fucked up a job all by himself.
I think Hoke can coach. But you can't allow your team to go into a season without a competent quarterback in today's major college playing field - not unless you're running the wishbone. And that mistake will likely cost both him and Brandon jobs.
I'm basically in the opposite camp. I think Hoke is a buffoon who shouldn't be allowed near the program basically under any circumstances, but I think this team, including Devin Gardner, is/are reasonably talented. As such, think them putting it together for a stretch and lucking into a rivalry win isn't really out of the question.
You are right , this team is not very talented at all and I blame Hoke for that completely. He has been here long enough to recruit enough players , but he has shown a complete inability to recruit quality players or develop the ones he has recruited (if you buy the rankings of the classes he brought in). His best season has come with RichRod players. He has shown no ability to recruit or develop a passable QB. If they do somehow knock off OSU or MSU, I would rather not retain someone who needed a miracle to to finish 8-5. I would rather take a chance with a staff who can recruit and develop players then keep someone who would need a tremendous stroke of luck just to be mediocre.WayBackVazquez said:
Well then, again the answer to your question is yes, there are scenarios short of winning out where he's back. Coaches who go 37-18 in their first four years generally don't get fired. Especially when the coach they were hired to replace went 15-22 in three.bowiac said:
Chemistry Schmemistry said:
The bolded made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.
I am not a defender of Rodriguez my any means, but the reality is that he at least showed forward momentum every year as he revamped the roster to fit his coaching plan. By contrast, our experience with Brady Hoke has been the opposite - the teams performance is inversely correlated to the percentage of recruits that Hoke is responsible for.
I don't know if this is because Hoke and his staff are a terrible judges of talent or simply bad coaches. But he's put us in a position that is much worse than the one he inherited from Rodriguez.
If Hoke and Brandon are not gone at the end of this season, I think there are a lot of people who will simply take a break from worrying about Michigan football.
Remember that Brandon is the ATHLETIC Director. Not the FOOTBALL Director. While we all know that football drives the bus, before making too much noise about firing Brandon, at least a little thought should be given to the state and performance of all the OTHER athletic programs over his time in charge...including basketball, which came within one win of a National Championship and plays in a virtually brand new arena, and ice hockey, which also appeared in a National Championship game...Chemistry Schmemistry said:
So the AD is directly responsible for every loss, but gets no credit for the wins? Sure, he didn't hire those coaches, but an AD does a lot more than hiring coaches. If I understand correctly from my Michigan connected colleagues, there's been an unprecedented wave of upgrades to UM facilities for every sport since Brandon started.
That said, my main point was, judge Brandon on the totality of his work as AD, not just one team's win-loss record. If the outcome of that line of thought is that he's performed poorly everywhere, by all means fire him.
That said, my main point was, judge Brandon on the totality of his work as AD, not just one team's win-loss record. If the outcome of that line of thought is that he's performed poorly everywhere, by all means fire him.
Fred not Lynn said:
Yes, but none of these upgrades happen without the donations and revenue from football. He has written lots of checks, both literal and figurative from accounts filled with decades of cash and goodwill from the successes of those who came before him.
While this point is well taken, it's hard to think of what he's done well at. The Hoke situation, and Brandon's handling of it has been ugly, and is probably something Brandon is most directly responsible for.Fred not Lynn said:
Football is king here, and the hiring of the football coach is an important piece of the job. The students are protesting against Brandon because they can. And because he's made a couple of unpopular moves with student seating. But it's still the kind of generic protest you'd expect from kids. Kids who are spending a quarter-million of mom and dad's money to come here really, really hate the idea of someone handling tens of millions of dollars.
Brandon will only be on the hot seat if he continues to screw up with the football coach position. If Hoke stays and things don't improve next year, Brandon's seat becomes very toasty. If Hoke is fired and the new coach hire process is as screwed up as the RichRod hire, same result. Otherwise, he goes back to no one knowing his name.
The big question is the direction of the program. RichRod went 3-9 with Lloyd Carr's guys, and Hoke went 11-2 with RichRod's guys. That's pure coaching to me. Hoke is getting better-ranked recruits than RichRod, but RichRod struck gold in his own scheme with Denard Robinson. Still, as I wrote, Hoke would have to lose 26 straight to match RichRod's winning percentage.
I think Hoke has to go 3-2 the rest of the regular season to have any chance of staying here, with the Ohio State game being critical. That would send the team to a bowl game. We have a high tolerance for losing bowl games because Bo Schembechler lost a lot of them. Bowls are always hard on the Big Ten because of the travel and because they're almost always road games. If he's 4-1, capped by an Ohio State win, I think he's off the hot seat.
Talk today consists of redshirts. Prize freshman Jabrill Peppers, the cornerback, has missed a lot of time with his ankle. If he plays again, he loses the opportunity to apply for a medical redshirt. However, if Peppers is as good as he seems, he's not going to be here four years from now anyway, so I'm not sure I give a damn about his redshirt.
Wilton Speight, the pro-style quarterback who has a lot of promise, has not played. He's 6-6, but doesn't have Mallett's arm strength. He does, however, seem to have everything else, plus decent mobility. I do care about his redshirt. I have no confidence in Shane Morris, and see Speight as the type of player who could come in as a redshirt freshman, and define the position in a way we haven't seen since Chad Henne.
Brandon will only be on the hot seat if he continues to screw up with the football coach position. If Hoke stays and things don't improve next year, Brandon's seat becomes very toasty. If Hoke is fired and the new coach hire process is as screwed up as the RichRod hire, same result. Otherwise, he goes back to no one knowing his name.
The big question is the direction of the program. RichRod went 3-9 with Lloyd Carr's guys, and Hoke went 11-2 with RichRod's guys. That's pure coaching to me. Hoke is getting better-ranked recruits than RichRod, but RichRod struck gold in his own scheme with Denard Robinson. Still, as I wrote, Hoke would have to lose 26 straight to match RichRod's winning percentage.
I think Hoke has to go 3-2 the rest of the regular season to have any chance of staying here, with the Ohio State game being critical. That would send the team to a bowl game. We have a high tolerance for losing bowl games because Bo Schembechler lost a lot of them. Bowls are always hard on the Big Ten because of the travel and because they're almost always road games. If he's 4-1, capped by an Ohio State win, I think he's off the hot seat.
Talk today consists of redshirts. Prize freshman Jabrill Peppers, the cornerback, has missed a lot of time with his ankle. If he plays again, he loses the opportunity to apply for a medical redshirt. However, if Peppers is as good as he seems, he's not going to be here four years from now anyway, so I'm not sure I give a damn about his redshirt.
Wilton Speight, the pro-style quarterback who has a lot of promise, has not played. He's 6-6, but doesn't have Mallett's arm strength. He does, however, seem to have everything else, plus decent mobility. I do care about his redshirt. I have no confidence in Shane Morris, and see Speight as the type of player who could come in as a redshirt freshman, and define the position in a way we haven't seen since Chad Henne.
Not buying Speight as anything but a backup quarterback for this team. We'll see Malzone starting before Speight ever gets anything more than an injury start over Shane.
Speight is two years older and enrolled early this year. He took an extra year in high school because of injury (yeah, that sounds weird to me, too). He has real speed, which helps against teams like Michigan State that are very aggressive on defense. It's nice to have Malzone coming in, though. I think Hoke was counting on Morris being the guy and Gardner at least being effective his last two seasons. In reality, you need to build depth everywhere. Even the best prospects, especially at quarterback, don't always pan out.
Morris is going to be the guy.
I have watched more of Speight's video than I wish I had, and it seems to me he has a D2 kind of arm -- poor mechanics, little zip, and wavering like a duck. I don't care if he's 6'10", if this team finds itself with that kid as the starting QB, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. On the other hand, Malzone's mechanics have gotten better and better, he wins every game, throws a very accurate, tight spiral, and seems to bleed blue.
I have watched more of Speight's video than I wish I had, and it seems to me he has a D2 kind of arm -- poor mechanics, little zip, and wavering like a duck. I don't care if he's 6'10", if this team finds itself with that kid as the starting QB, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. On the other hand, Malzone's mechanics have gotten better and better, he wins every game, throws a very accurate, tight spiral, and seems to bleed blue.
What if the reason Morris is lousy is coaching? Given that Gardner and Robinson seemed to decline under Hoke, it's certainly possible that coaching is the problem.Chemistry Schmemistry said:
I want a coach with a track record of out-scheming the opposition and developing QBs. Anything else is just treading water at best.
How's that working out?WayBackVazquez said:
It is an interesting point though. I assume we can all agree that the offense and qb play are both uninspiring. Is that bc Nussmeier needs more time? Bc hoke's love of manball impacts nussmeier's effectiveness?
I also think it's instructive that Saban moved on to a more progressive offensive approach.
You can only go so far with good decision making. Gardner and Morris both seem to have issues. With Gardner, he seems incapable of moving to a secondary receiver. If primary is covered, he either makes a risky throw or tucks and runs. His touch is non-existent and he can't make power throws. With Morris, it's more "I'm going make this impossible throw that's going to make you stand up and cheer," which is why he still has zero career touchdown passes and a passel of interceptions.
I never, ever want to see Bellomy anywhere near a helmet again.
With Speight, I'm impressed by the speed and am hoping the arm improves. But I see him as a pro-style guy who has an upside.
I never, ever want to see Bellomy anywhere near a helmet again.
With Speight, I'm impressed by the speed and am hoping the arm improves. But I see him as a pro-style guy who has an upside.
twibnotes said:
Alabama was not Nussmeier's first job, you know. It's hard for me to envision a more reactionary stance than the one you're taking. Who's the answer? Who's the QB guru? And how many months do we give him to make Wilton Speight into Tom Brady before we fire him, too?
I'm curious what you've seen out of Morris to make you think he has anything going for him?WayBackVazquez said:
I'll add, Morris was not in fact, some kind of "wowza" prospect. He was a very impressive prospect for a junior, then got sick, didn't play well and didn't show development as a senior. His final recruiting rankings reflected that. It was a popular opinion among Michigan fans that the mono should excuse all, but I don't know why we should think that.
Look up thread. I've been crystal clear that I don't think manball is the way. Outside Stanford, who is doing it successfully? I want a coach who spreads the field and has a demonstrated track record of highly productive offenses. Gundy is one example. Certainly Mullen is justifiably a hot name. I don't see any way Michigan can compete for an NC without such an approach.WayBackVazquez said:
Put another way, how do you defend sticking with hoke when schools like Baylor, oke st and oregon (all with far less tradition than mich) are far superior programs in no small part bc of their coaching. Look what urban Meyer did at Utah. Look at tcu. Coaches who can innovate and develop players are running laps around brady hoke.
Are you honestly proposing that hoke stay?!
Well, I saw him play in a college football bowl game once, and he looked pretty good.
And yeah, I know you keep repeating this, but he was a "wowza" prospect. He was the #3 ranked QB by Scout, #4 by Rivals, and #8 by ESPN. If that's not "wowza," then what does that make Speight? He was MVP of his elite 11 regional; whether one recruiting service drops him from a five-star to a four-star is pretty much meaningless to me. He was sick during his senior year, he rushed back for the all-america game and got bad press for it.
Wilton Speight has nowhere near the tools Morris does.
And yeah, I know you keep repeating this, but he was a "wowza" prospect. He was the #3 ranked QB by Scout, #4 by Rivals, and #8 by ESPN. If that's not "wowza," then what does that make Speight? He was MVP of his elite 11 regional; whether one recruiting service drops him from a five-star to a four-star is pretty much meaningless to me. He was sick during his senior year, he rushed back for the all-america game and got bad press for it.
Wilton Speight has nowhere near the tools Morris does.
twibnotes said:
I don't think I was. Unless the team ends up 8-5. In which case, yes, I am.
What I was proposing was just that you stop the nonsense about finding a coach with a proven track record in developing QBs, when we just emptied the money truck on exactly that less than a year ago. Firing your coaches every ten months is not actually a good way to attract talent.
Gimme a break - context matters. Maybe Nussmeier would be productive under the right circumstances, but half of the last few pages are rightfully focused on the very real possibility that this team needs a new head coach. Doubtful Nuss would last such a change.WayBackVazquez said:
As for what they pay the coordinators, who cares. It means nothing if they don't get results.