2014 Celtics Offseason: Rebuilding Plans

[wutang112878]

I dont know how to research this, but in the history of the league can anyone think of a team that was anywhere close to having this # of 1sts over a comparable period of time?  The best I can think of Minny during the Kahn years that had 4 in 2009, 3 in 2010 and 2 in 2011 but Kahn proved to be a horrible evaluator of talent and trades so that ended up being an exercise in futility.  I cant think of an instance where a competent GM was actually setup with these resources.

 

[Devizier]

I dont know how to research this, but in the history of the league can anyone think of a team that was anywhere close to having this # of 1sts over a comparable period of time?  The best I can think of Minny during the Kahn years that had 4 in 2009, 3 in 2010 and 2 in 2011 but Kahn proved to be a horrible evaluator of talent and trades so that ended up being an exercise in futility.  I cant think of an instance where a competent GM was actually setup with these resources.

 
I don't think it's ever happened that a team has *held the rights* to so many picks at the same time. This is largely because draft picks weren't as valuable --- role players were cheap --- so teams wouldn't hoard them like they do now. The Celtics did have three first rounders in 2001, two more in 2003, and three again in 2004, so that's an example of sorts. Across different GMs, though.

 

[luckiestman]

is there anywehere that has a basic table that is updated regularly of the celtics roster, contracts, draft picks and any other type of assets (draft picks, rights to a euro, tpe). 

 

[thehitcat]

Hoops Hype does a pretty good job but I don't believe they update until the deals are official and as I check it now it doesn't have Smart or Young yet.  That said it's great in season.
 
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

 

[wutang112878]

 
I don't think it's ever happened that a team has *held the rights* to so many picks at the same time. This is largely because draft picks weren't as valuable --- role players were cheap --- so teams wouldn't hoard them like they do now. The Celtics did have three first rounders in 2001, two more in 2003, and three again in 2004, so that's an example of sorts. Across different GMs, though.

 
Forgot about that, and if they werent stupid and traded Joe Johnson away they would have had Johnson, Perk, Delonte and Al Jefferson which would have been a nice stable of young players.  And I also want to believe if Danny was the GM he wouldnt have picked Kedrick 'all the athleticism in the world but unable to play the game of basketball' Brown at #11 in 2001
 
However, in 2002 they didnt have a first rounder at all, so we are really talking 8 in 4 years.  So thats close, but the 10 1sts in 5 years plus a swap, really just blows my mind.
 
 
 

is there anywehere that has a basic table that is updated regularly of the celtics roster, contracts, draft picks and any other type of assets (draft picks, rights to a euro, tpe). 

 
As far as picks go, RealGM has a pretty cool summary of the draft picks debits & credits by team. 

 

[luckiestman]

Forgot about this one (could be better than previously thought)
 
2016 second round draft pick from Miami
Miami's 2016 2nd round pick to Boston [Boston-Golden State-Miami, 1/15/2014]

 

[RedOctober3829]

With LeBron and presumably Love going to Cleveland, does that put the Celtics into full rebuilding mode?  Do you go ahead and trade Rondo?

 

[the1andonly3003]

With LeBron and presumably Love going to Cleveland, does that put the Celtics into full rebuilding mode?  Do you go ahead and trade Rondo?

Where would Rondo go?

 

[zenter]

With LeBron and presumably Love going to Cleveland, does that put the Celtics into full rebuilding mode?  Do you go ahead and trade Rondo?

 
Is there a good team that is a very good pass-first PG away from being a great team? In the east, besides the Pacers, I'm wondering if the Nets would like to make ANOTHER deal?

 

[Brickowski]

Depending on where the dominoes fall, Ainge could be in position to pick up another asset or two.

 

[Devizier]

Where would Rondo go?

 
Dallas would make sense, especially if Parsons falls through. The problem with any of these suitors is that they have jack shit to send back.

 

[wutang112878]

Where would Rondo go?

 

 
Dallas would make sense, especially if Parsons falls through. The problem with any of these suitors is that they have jack shit to send back.

 
These are the biggest obstacles to a Rondo trade.  Its really tough to come up with even 4 teams that would really, really want him and could create a market for him.  Then look at the assets coming back and suddenly there is just nothing that makes any sense unless you just want to be rid of him.

 

[luckiestman]

Celtics are in an weird spot right now. When I think about the starting 5, I see Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger, Zeller; everyone in the front court can score it a little so I am seeing a team that is a lot better than last year. Last year they won 25 games. It is going to be hard for them to get a lot of ping pong balls. Then you have Olynyk, Bass and Smart coming off the bench, I think they might be too good.
 
If Sullinger gets in any type of shape, I think he will surprise people that watch the games. He could average a double double easily; His per 36 was 15/10 in his second year coming off back surgery. Im not saying this is an awesome team or even a good team, but this is no tank squadron. 

 

[Reardon's Beard]

I looked at the depth chart for the league at PG and came to several conclusions (as I imagine most already have.)
 
1) This is a deep position. Most teams have guys more than capable of playing the point without having to be the star player/scorer.
2) Rondo is still in the upper echelon of this league. Much better than half the starters but just not quite the cream of the crop thanks to his shot (though improving).
3) I suspect Danny's biggest problem is that many teams feel the same way BUT is the drop off worth the financial difference between what you get for your current, cost controlled starter versus potentially a single year of Rondo?
 
This left me with several additional questions.
 
1) Who is in GFIN mode? Is there any team out there with a one or two year window?
2) Are there any teams with two bonafide stars looking for that third wheel?
3) Are we willing to take 50 cents on the dollar here? Even if we did, with all of Danny's other moves they'd still end up ahead in my book.
 
I'm more convinced than ever we go into the season with him on the roster and wait for either a major injury, surprise contender, or deadline deal to maximize value. I've thought this for a while but figured there might be moves out there we weren't thinking about. I'm not longer certain that is the case.
 
But then again, who knows. This offseason has been like Game of Thrones. Anything's possible.

 

[Statman]

 

Jared Zwerling @JaredZwerling  ·  2m

Source: Celtics & Wizards working on a sign-and-trade involving Kris Humphries. Deal will be in the 3-year, $13.5 miil range. Not done yet.

 

 

Jared Zwerling @JaredZwerling  ·  39s

In the in-the-works Kris Humphries deal, the Wizards would be using part of their trade exception they received in the Trevor Ariza deal.

 

 

[Bozo Texino]

https://twitter.com/conradburry/status/489121129446273024/photo/1
 
C's away jerseys will read "BOSTON" instead of "CELTICS" next year.
 
They will also feature a gold "mark" denoting at least one championship season.

 

[Return of the Dewey]

That's the way the road jerseys was during the Cousy/Russell era

 

[jose melendez]

I got really depressed about the Celtics on my walk home from work today.
 
Baring incredible draft luck or the spectacular stupidity of another GM, they aren't going to be in the title picture for another five years at least. 

 

[MainerInExile]

I got really depressed about the Celtics on my walk home from work today.
 
Baring incredible draft luck or the spectacular stupidity of another GM, they aren't going to be in the title picture for another five years at least. 

Just because they have neither cap space nor talent is no reason to give up hope!

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Well cap space is coming and Dannys doing his best to pile up assets of varying degrees. 5 years for the title picture seems about right but I am looking forward to the process.

 

[jose melendez]

Danny's basically played in right, and yet we're still going to be bad for a long time.  It really gets me down. 
 
The cap space in all likelihood isn't going to matter for the Cs unless they already have they're superstar, and maybe even not then.  Superstars don't sign with other teams often and if they do it's with one of those markets in either a no tax state or state with a real cultural draw (LA, NYC).  No good free agent has ever signed with the Cs--Xavier McDaniel might be the best.  Of course, no elite free agent has ever left the Cs either.
 
We've got to either draft incredibly well or manage to trade for something elite.  This is why I'm basically opposed to trading Rondo for anything either than a high pick or a player of comparable skill.  Trading him for cap space ain't gonna matter and neither is trading him for a few rotation guys.  We need stars, and Rondo's the only thing we have that's even close.

 

[jose melendez]

How did you survive the 90s? I'm actually excited about the Celtics. They're garbage right now but the possibilities are endless for this team and we have very strong leadership in the organization.

I was depressed.  I went to more Cs games in the down times than at any point in my life.  I shared season tickets in 94. 
 
By the way, I agree they have great leadership--good ownership, good GM--it's just really, really hard to build a contender without getting crazy lucky in the draft or fleecing a dumb GM. 

 

[bowiac]

The cap space is helpful for acquiring other pieces mostly for now. Just wait, once LeBron misses half of 2016, we're getting a sweet pick from Cleveland...

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I am so sick of the no FAs have signed with the celtics nonsense. They have literally never been in position to sign a marquee FA. For the most part all of thier stars were drafted or traded for by Red. Maybe in the 90s but could you blame anyone for not wanting to play here then?

 

[Brickowski]

Looks as though they've kept Pressey.

 

[ALiveH]

well until a marquee FA does sign here (or another small market cold weather high tax jurisdiction) expect to keep hearing it.
 
oops forgot about lebron / cleveland.  i guess we can hope that vonleh or wayne selden become awesome players who have an overriding longing / marketing $ motivation to return home.

 

[Devizier]

well until a marquee FA does sign here (or another small market cold weather high tax jurisdiction) expect to keep hearing it.

 
It's a bullshit argument, because marquee free agents rarely change franchises in free agency. Who are the HOF talents that have changed franchises in their prime through free agency? I count Lebron James, Shaquille O'Neal, and Moses Malone. On the second level you have Chris Bosh, Penny Hardaway, Gil Arenas, Elton Brand, and Steve Nash.

 

[jose melendez]

While it's true that there have been realatively few big time free agents switching teams over the years, I think you have to include trades where a guy basically shot his way out of town to a designated other team  (Carmelo to the Knicks, Wilt to the Lakers, Kareem to the Lakers, Howard to the Lakers etc.)
 
There is basically a zero chance of any big time free agent coming to the Celtics.  The vast majority of free agents won't switch teams, because staying put is much more money, but it doesn't change the fact that there are a small number of places people may take salary cuts to go to and Boston isn't one of them.
 
Most of my griping is that I get incredibly annoyed that the Lakers have historically been able to rebuild by superstars simply wanting to go there and hang with celebrities, while the Celtics have to do it through smarts.
 
The Lakers literally had three of the best 15 players of all time, Wilt, Kareem and Shaq demand to go there.  Now, as the Lakers no longer have good managment, that may change.
 
I just really hate that despite Danny doing a tremendous amount right, we basically have to suck for three to five years to have a crack at contending if we do everything perfectly.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
It's a bullshit argument, because marquee free agents rarely change franchises in free agency. Who are the HOF talents that have changed franchises in their prime through free agency? I count Lebron James, Shaquille O'Neal, and Moses Malone. On the second level you have Chris Bosh, Penny Hardaway, Gil Arenas, Elton Brand, and Steve Nash.

So not one player in these two top levels even considered Boston despite us having the flexibility to get them paid by executing a sign-n-trade. This kinda is what we mean by Boston not being an elite destination.

We've also got Antonio McDyess turning down our full MLE to get the same deal with the Pistons so there's that too.

 

[bowiac]

I just really hate that despite Danny doing a tremendous amount right, we basically have to suck for three to five years to have a crack at contending if we do everything perfectly.

This is kind of why I don't like the "bottoming out" rebuild on an aesthetic level. It makes sense sometimes if you have the right combination of guys fall into your lap like I think Philly has, but five years is a decent chunk of time, and that's if things go right. Watching a good, but not championship level team counts for something too.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

So not one player in these two top levels even considered Boston despite us having the flexibility to get them paid by executing a sign-n-trade. This kinda is what we mean by Boston not being an elite destination.

We've also got Antonio McDyess turning down our full MLE to get the same deal with the Pistons so there's that too.

 
To go to notoriously warm Detroit.
 

While it's true that there have been realatively few big time free agents switching teams over the years, I think you have to include trades where a guy basically shot his way out of town to a designated other team  (Carmelo to the Knicks, Wilt to the Lakers, Kareem to the Lakers, Howard to the Lakers etc.)
 
There is basically a zero chance of any big time free agent coming to the Celtics.  The vast majority of free agents won't switch teams, because staying put is much more money, but it doesn't change the fact that there are a small number of places people may take salary cuts to go to and Boston isn't one of them.
 
Most of my griping is that I get incredibly annoyed that the Lakers have historically been able to rebuild by superstars simply wanting to go there and hang with celebrities, while the Celtics have to do it through smarts.
 
The Lakers literally had three of the best 15 players of all time, Wilt, Kareem and Shaq demand to go there.  Now, as the Lakers no longer have good managment, that may change.
 
I just really hate that despite Danny doing a tremendous amount right, we basically have to suck for three to five years to have a crack at contending if we do everything perfectly.

 
If those count, and I think you're right that they should, why don't Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett count in the Celtics favor?

 

[moondog80]

 
To go to notoriously warm Detroit.
 
 
If those count, and I think you're right that they should, why don't Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett count in the Celtics favor?

 
Well, I don't think Ray Allen had any say in the matter, the C's traded for him and that was that.  But KG, yes, presumably he could have torpedoed the deal, and he didn't.  I'd say that counts.

 

[jose melendez]

 
To go to notoriously warm Detroit.
 
 
If those count, and I think you're right that they should, why don't Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett count in the Celtics favor?

 
Neither of those guys was forcing a deal to BOSTON  or to Boston as a one out of two places option.  That's where the team wanted to deal them, not where they demanded to be dealt--and remember, KG needed to be talked into it.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
Neither of those guys was forcing a deal to BOSTON  or to Boston as a one out of two places option.  That's where the team wanted to deal them, not where they demanded to be dealt--and remember, KG needed to be talked into it.

 
Ah, I see the distinction.

 

[Devizier]

Well, except for the whole Kevin Love 1) trying to force a trade and 2) making a highly visible trip to Boston during the process, I think you guys are really on to something. 

 

[moondog80]

 
Neither of those guys was forcing a deal to BOSTON  or to Boston as a one out of two places option.  That's where the team wanted to deal them, not where they demanded to be dealt--and remember, KG needed to be talked into it.

But in the end, he was talked into it. He gave the trade his blessing.

Everything is impossible until it happens. How many big time FA did the Rockets sign before Howard? I think it's silly to count on it, because there are 29 other teams out there. But by no means is it impossible for the Cs to land a big time FA, if they have an inviting situation.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well, except for the whole Kevin Love 1) trying to force a trade and 2) making a highly visible trip to Boston during the process, I think you guys are really on to something. 

Love "could" be the exception to the rule. Right now we've got X-Man, Dominique's corpse, Ellison's overpay, and Mark Blount's trade kicker as examples of FA signing here as FA. C'mon now.

 

[ALiveH]

i think KG sort of counts, but not really.  He didn't have total say in the matter like he would've as a UFA.  Same as Love - if he ends up here it will sort of count but not really.  But, I mean yeah, I think if we already have 2 superstars and we have cap space to sign a 3rd max guy (which is analogous to the KG situation), then yeah, I think a 3rd superstar would strongly consider us.  That's a pretty unique situation and the hard part is getting the 1st 2 superstars (and still have cap space left over).
 
The thing is it's not just Boston.  It's also for example Minnesota & Toronto.  When a logical intuitive statement: "NBA superstars absent other big overriding factors, generally don't like to play in cold weather, small market cities that have high tax rates."  Lines up with empirical evidence - Boston, Minnesota & Toronto haven't signed marquee free agents.  Cleveland did just now b/c of a pretty huge overriding personal / PR / marketing $ factor.  It's definitely not nonsense to talk about it.

 

[moondog80]

How many teams have signed big time FA?

Orlando
Miami
New York
LA Lakers
Houston
Cleveland


I'm probably missing a few. But that still leaves at least 20 teams who will never ever ever get a big time FA. Based on the dozen or so situations where a guy like that hit the market.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

How many teams have signed big time FA?

Orlando
Miami
New York
LA Lakers
Houston
Cleveland


I'm probably missing a few. But that still leaves at least 20 teams who will never ever ever get a big time FA. Based on the dozen or so situations where a guy like that hit the market.

Exactly. This is why the futures FA market allows teams to put themselves in position to TRADE for one of these players while making additional moves to entice them to stay. KG is a perfect example of this. He wasn't a FA involved in a "Decision" and choose Boston. Minnesota didn't have many alternative options from a KG destination.

 

[lexrageorge]

First, last I checked, Cleveland is not warm, nor a large market.  So it's not easy to predict where future FA's will end up.
 
KG did agree to a contract extension with the Celtics prior to the trade being completed.  No extension, there is likely no KG trade.  So, I do "count" KG.  
 
Yes, LA has advantages that Boston does not have.  Then again, there is now a 2nd legitimate team in LA, so the Lakers may no longer have the monopoly on the premium players.  
 
The Celtics are smartly acquiring assets in young players and draft picks, which sets them up for a potential trade in the future.  Granted, they cannot draft too many Forte's and Brown's with those assets, either.  The salary cap flexibility will help them if they do find a trade candidate, as it may make it easier to match up the salaries.  The future today is better than what it was in the mid-90's when the Celtics were perpetually trapped in salary cap hell, with players like Vin Baker eating up whatever space they could have had.  And had an owner that everyone hated and a circus parade of incompetent coaches to boot.  

 

[Devizier]

I always thought the "free agents won't sign here" was a crappy fig leaf to cover up the gross mismanagement of the late Gaston era.

 

[swingin val]

If we are to agree that agents and players pretty much decide exactly where they are going then we need to credit BOS with getting KG. And if you can get KG to agree to a trade to BOS then I can't see how you can't also convince a top FA to come.

 

[ALiveH]

KG didn't have as much choice coming to Boston as he would have in choosing his landing spot as an UFA.  It also was different than a UFA in that Boston was able to pay him more $ in a max contract sign-and-trade than an UFA who has to actively choose to take less money than could be conferred through bird rights max contract.  Lastly, there were already 2 superstars here, so I do agree the last missing big piece could be a big overriding factor if a player is motivated to win a championship.  So that's why I only "sort of" count KG.
 
The Cavs had pretty big overriding factors with Lebron and I don't think there are any Massachusetts-raised superstars out there that need to right their PR narrative.
 
But valid point - I am not sure how many superstars in total & which teams they went to in the roughly 25 years of existence of free agency.
 
Bottom-line, I don't want Ainge to gamble that he can sign a big-time free agent, absent other big overriding factors - like a Lebron story, or unless he's already built a winner and needs that last big piece.

 

[mabrowndog]

Forget about the Stephenson rumors...
 
ESPNBoston ‏@ESPNBoston 25s
Lance Stephenson to Charlotte Hornets for 3-year, $27 million deal http://es.pn/1pb2LJr

 

[jose melendez]

KG didn't have as much choice coming to Boston as he would have in choosing his landing spot as an UFA.  It also was different than a UFA in that Boston was able to pay him more $ in a max contract sign-and-trade than an UFA who has to actively choose to take less money than could be conferred through bird rights max contract.  Lastly, there were already 2 superstars here, so I do agree the last missing big piece could be a big overriding factor if a player is motivated to win a championship.  So that's why I only "sort of" count KG.
 
The Cavs had pretty big overriding factors with Lebron and I don't think there are any Massachusetts-raised superstars out there that need to right their PR narrative.
 
But valid point - I am not sure how many superstars in total & which teams they went to in the roughly 25 years of existence of free agency.
 
Bottom-line, I don't want Ainge to gamble that he can sign a big-time free agent, absent other big overriding factors - like a Lebron story, or unless he's already built a winner and needs that last big piece.

 
This.  I think the Cs can get someone to come here when it's one of a relatively narrow set of choices and we're competitive.  What I don't think is that if you put an elite free agent out on the market and have five teams throwing max money at him the Celtics will win ever.
 
I don't dispute that the Cs can hypotherically sign a big team free agent in certain circumstances, but all things being equal--read max contract--we never will, and neither will most of the teams in the league.

 

[jose melendez]

I'm not sure about others, but I certainly don't agree to your first point. Players and agents decide where they want to go within a small subset of teams that are able to acquire them and also want to. KG wanted out and the best option was Boston that could provide a combination of those two things, since they had just traded for Ray. If I recall correctly, his first choice was the Lakers, but it couldn't be done for whatever side of the willing/able see saw it was (I'd have to assume ability was the issue).

 
This is right, the big variable is KG was loyal to Minny and didn't want to totally fuck them.  If he'd said I won't extend anywhere except LA, he'd have been traded there or walked as a free agent.  We were able to persuade KG to accept Boston as an alternative only after we'd added a second hall of famer.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

This. I think the Cs can get someone to come here when it's one of a relatively narrow set of choices and we're competitive. What I don't think is that if you put an elite free agent out on the market and have five teams throwing max money at him the Celtics will win ever.
 

 
If there are 5 teams chasing the same free agent, then the default chance the Celts would have is 20%.

Never say never, that's what gets me about the absoluteness of it all. We have the tiniest of tiniest sample sizes. If you say there's a penalty that in this scenario reduces our chances to 10-15% it's more elegant and defensible.

 

[lexrageorge]

It is true that KG was persuaded to come here after the Ray Allen trade.  But he still made that choice; the lure of a potential championship ring was too strong.  
 
It's also true that Boston may not be on the top of most lists for potential free agents.  And there's not normally a lot of star players becoming UFA's and moving a-la LeBron and Shaq; they really were the exceptions. But let's not devalue the potential cap space the Celtics may have; it can come in valuable in a trade scenario, which is how a lot of teams are indeed built.  
 
Also, the Lakers championship teams of the late 2000's were built mostly by trades (Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom), draft (Kobe - effectively; Bynum), and some good 2nd tier free agent signings (Fisher).  The Celtics also had their choice of 2nd tier free agents once Ray and KG joined the team.  Guys like rings...

 

[Curtis Pride]

A big reason KG ultimately okayed a trade to Boston was that the Celtics had Pierce, and then Ray Allen. So at the time of the trade for KG, the Celtics had:
 
Paul Pierce
Rajon Rondo 
Kendrick Perkins
Glen Davis
 
A couple of trade chips they used to get Ray Allen
 
Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff's expiring contract, and a high draft pick, plus a couple of role players, for KG
 
After that, they signed as free agents:
 
Eddie House
Scot Pollard
James Posey
 
So,even though they were able to trade for KG,the Celtics had enough talent at the time to:
 
build around a great player (Pierce),
draft and develop enough talent to keep or use in a trade,
collect some draft picks to either draft players or use in a trade.
then collect enough core talent to convince some veteran free agents to sign there as role players.
 
Right now the Celtics don't really have that much talent. So they just have to keep drafting and developing players until they get one they can build around. I don't know how good Smart and Young will be, but they'll either be a part of a contending Celtics team or be traded for a player who puts them much closer to contention.
 
This is one reason I think a trade for Love wouldn't be in the Celtics' best interest.  They just don't have enough talent to give some up in a trade and still have enough good players to contend with Love. However, in a couple of years, when some of the younger players have progressed in their development, the Celtics will have enough assets to make such a trade. And I think that is what Danny will do.