According to the
FootballDatabase rankings (which are ELO rankings
weighted by quality of competition, e.g. Premier League results are given more weight than MLS results), here are how the groups turned out, with ELO rating in parentheses:
Group A (avg 1773)
Juventus (1929)
Atletico Madrid (1886)
Olympiakos (1722)
Malmo (1553)
Group B (avg 1796)
Real Madrid (2047)
Liverpool (1880)
Basel (1641)
Ludogorets (1617)
Group C (avg 1744)
Benfica (1853)
Leverkusen (1752)
Zenit (1710)
Monaco (1660)
Group D (avg 1737)
Dortmund (1853)
Arsenal (1822)
Galatasaray (1659)
Anderlecht (1615)
Group E (avg 1825)
Bayern Munich (1977)
Manchester City (1928)
Roma (1772)
CSKA Moscow (1621)
Group F (avg 1782)
Barcelona (1905)
PSG (1873)
Ajax (1721)
APOEL (1630)
Group G (avg 1701)
Chelsea (1869)
Schalke (1724)
Sporting (1653)
Maribor (1559)
Group H (avg 1710)
Shakhtar Donetsk (1769)
Porto (1743)
Athletic Bilbao (1725)
BATE (1604)
So here's the average difficulty of each of the groups, in order:
Extremely challenging
1825 - Group E
Strong
1796 - Group B
1782 - Group F
1773 - Group A
Mediocre
1744 - Group C
1737 - Group D
Easy
1710 - Group H
1701 - Group G
Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, as some of the groups' average ratings are inflated by having one dominant team and a bunch of lousy teams. So instead, let's look at the delta from average strength that each of the teams provided:
Pot 1 - average ELO 1888
Pot 2 - average ELO 1803
Pot 3 - average ELO 1723
Pot 4 - average ELO 1626
Knowing these averages, it's easy to calculate the relative luck of each team in the draw (not including the rules about avoiding teams from the same country, TV times, etc).
For example, my team,
Arsenal, drew Dortmund (50 ELO points higher than average for pot 2), Galatasaray (-64), and Anderlecht (-11) for a total delta of -25. In other words, the draw was mostly average to Arsenal overall, although drawing a strong team from pot 2 makes first place qualification more difficult. Granted, Arsenal prefer to come in second in their group and this is a known factor derived from years of research, so no big deal - they should handle Galatasaray and Anderlecht.
How about
City? Well Bayern were 89 points stronger than the average pot 1 team, CSKA Moscow 102 points less strong than the average pot 3 team, and Roma a whopping 146 points stronger than the average pot 4 team, for a net increased difficulty of 133 ELO. The real loser, however, is their opponent CSKA Moscow, with a net increased difficulty of 360 (!) from drawing the best pot 2 and pot 4 teams and the second strongest pot 1 team. Basel is also a loser, with a net increased difficulty of 307.
Now, what about
Chelsea? All three of their opponents are significantly lower ELO than their respective pot averages, giving Chelsea a net
decreased difficulty of 217 ELO. In fact, Chelsea's draw was by far the best of any of the 32 teams involved. The other winners? Athletic Bilboa (-201), Dortmund (-141), Monaco (-99).
Liverpool's draw was about average. They drew the strongest team from pot 1, but the weakest from pot 2 and a pretty average team form pot 4.
Of course, all of this analysis doesn't take travel into account, nor other factors like recent signings, etc. But I think it's a reasonable assessment of the situation. As an Arsenal fan, I can't complain.
Best four teams not in the Champions League? Napoli (1802) who lost out to Athletic Bilbao in the playoffs and Everton (1758), Manchester United (1742) and Tottenham (1739) who all missed out on the four English CL spots. All other top-20 teams by ELO are in.