What needs to happen for this team to be a serious World Series threat? Options

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Breaking the ongoing discussion out of the game thread, as it's come around to a topic that is probably worthy of main board discussion. At this point in the season, I think most of us feel pretty confident that this team can make the playoffs. *Can* being the operative word. It's still quite possible that Texas passes us in the standings, but the chances of that get less and less with each day in which we don't give back a game. We'll have to wait and see if they bring the lead back down to 2 after today's loss to Chicago.

The place people seem to disagree most about the current Sox team is whether they can do anything if they actually get to the playoffs. I imagine we will have a lot of opinions about this that don't mesh, but the thing most people will agree on is that we probably need a healthy and effective Beckett to be a serious threat to not only go to, but win the World Series. The Yankees are a great team and one ace may not be enough to get by them. Here's the last post in the gamethread that led me to start this thread:

Ehh...the Sox were 1 game away from the World Series last year (and disposed of Anaheim in 4 games) with a shitty/unhealthy Beckett.

I think they can win it all...but I agree that we want a better Beckett than last year's version, but I don't think it completely dooms this team if he isn't 2007 playoff Beckett. Pedroia is a concern right now, but I'm sure he will snap out of it. He usually does when we start wondering what is wrong with him.

The biggest X-factor aside from Beckett's health is probably what version of Papi we get going into the post season. If we get the summer version (minus the early August slump), then the offense is that much more dangerous. If we get the spring version, then we are probably toast unless Beckett is 2007 form and Lester is unhittable too.

What I disagree with is the idea that we need Papi hitting like he has for most of the summer to be a real threat. It would certainly help quite a bit, but I'm fairly certain they can put out a lineup capable of taking this team to the World Series without Papi.

Ellsbury - CF
Pedroia - 2B
Martinez - C
Youkilis - 3B
Bay - LF
Lowell - DH
Drew - RF
Kotchman - 1B
Gonzalez - SS

It's not the 2003 Sox, but with good pitching I think this lineup can hit well enough to beat the Yankees, the Angels, Detroit or any team from the NL.

Anyway, there is a lot that can go right or wrong between now and October, so this conversation could change drastically as the next month unfolds. But as it stands now, the only thing I think that absolutely needs to happen is for Beckett to get right. If that comes to pass, I'm very happy with this team going into the playoffs. And any other good news is gravy.

[Trautwein's ...]

I can't say it any better so I won't (from the Beckett thread):

I have never regarded a regular-season start as a more important harbinger of a team's post-season success. With Beckett struggling the Sox are just another team that got lucky enough to buy a lottery ticket. With Beckett on his game, they are one of the favorites (and with a healthy Wakefield or Dice-K and/or Clay continuing excellent, they are the favorite, period).

As is, I think we're in for another Sox-Yankees ALCS. The Yankees are a better team. They have been for most of the season. However, if Beckett is on his game, I think we're looking at a 7 game ALCS.

[donutogre]

Even if Beckett is at full health, I just don't see them getting past the Yankees in the ALCS, assuming both teams get to that point. I have pretty little confidence in Beckett against the Yanks unfortunately (although he did throw a gem against them at the beginning of August, one of few good starts he's had against them as a member of the Red Sox).

Beyond Beckett, the 3rd/4th starter situation isn't pretty. I think we're all feeling good about Buchholz as a 3rd starter for the rest of the season, but we have no idea if he can get it done in the postseason, against a lineup like the one NY has been featuring. And the 4th starter situation is a complete mystery....Dice-K? Byrd? Wakefield? Tazawa? All are huge question markets; NY's rotation is not nearly as questionable - in all likelyhood, they'll field Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Joba. I'd say that trumps a Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/?? rotation. Lester is the only sure thing there and if he happens to have a lousy game, the pressure is on the rest of the rotation big time.

TH\hat's without even getting into the offense. Just my gut feeling - it is pretty hard for the Sox to match up against NY right now...the fact that they've been absolutely on fire since the all-star break doesn't help. Maybe they'll come back to earth at some point this season, but if they don't, I think they'll walk away with the trophy this year.

[irinmike]

What needs to happen is Matsuzaka needs to return, and pitch like a number three starter. Buchholtz needs to show consistency through september, and someone besides Wagner, Bard or Papelbon needs to come forward in the pen. Offensively Ortiz needs to go on a tear and be a threat in the middle of the lineup at the plate. Do I think all these things will occur? No I don't but I believe the sox have enough to get into the playoff tournament. Once there if they are hot offensively they might go to the second round, if not we will be talking about off season moves a bit early this fall.

[SonsOfCharlieZin...]

The Yankees have a brutal offense this year. Their old guys are having stellar seasons, our old guys hare having the occasional stellar game. I hope there is a classic ALCS and it goes to 7, but when it is all said and done, the Yankees have a better team. and it *kills* me to say it.

[shoebox91]

The postseason has always been somewhat of a crap-shoot to me. I know it is the cliche thing to say but it is often the case that the "hot" team wins, not the "best" team. Look at the 2006 Cardinals. They really had no business winning that WS and, one could argue, just snuck into it to begin with. On the other hand though, the 2007 Sox were clearly the best team in the field and swept the "hot" team, the Rockies. The long layoff discussion then comes into play.

There are so many interesting variables in a 5 or 7 game situation that come into play. You can look at a team like San Fran and think, "Oh crap! I don't want to face them" because you could get shut down by their starters and lose a game 1-0 or you can look at a team like the Yankees and have to worry more about their bats and, while you think you can hit their pitching, you still lose 12-9.

Having said all that I really believe this Sox team can win it all. They need Beckett and Lester to be dominant. They need Paps, Bard, and Wagner or Okajima to shut it down at the end. They need one or two offensive stars in each game. You could reasonably argue this about any team though, which is why we watch.

[Eric Van]

The Yankees have a brutal offense this year. Their old guys are having stellar seasons, our old guys hare having the occasional stellar game. I hope there is a classic ALCS and it goes to 7, but when it is all said and done, the Yankees have a better team. and it *kills* me to say it.

There is, however, very little historic correlation between regular-season RS and post-season success. It really does appear to be all about pitching and defense in a short series.

The Yankees superiority can be negated in a short stories with an on-his game Beckett.

[TFisNEXT]

The Red Sox would appear to have the pitching advantage on the MFY in the post season if Beckett is going vintage.

Does anybody trust Burnett and Sabathia more than Lester/Beckett in the playoffs? What about Joba in the playoffs? I am pretty scared of the Yankees aging lineup that seems to be producing ridiculous stats despite their age...but what about their starters? The way Papi is swinging will be a big factor going into the playoffs. If he gets into one of his hot grooves that he has occasionally shown this season, then the offense is totally different.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Beyond Beckett, the 3rd/4th starter situation isn't pretty. I think we're all feeling good about Buchholz as a 3rd starter for the rest of the season, but we have no idea if he can get it done in the postseason, against a lineup like the one NY has been featuring. And the 4th starter situation is a complete mystery....Dice-K? Byrd? Wakefield? Tazawa? All are huge question markets; NY's rotation is not nearly as questionable - in all likelyhood, they'll field Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Joba. I'd say that trumps a Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/?? rotation. Lester is the only sure thing there and if he happens to have a lousy game, the pressure is on the rest of the rotation big time.

But the Sox have hit those four pretty well this year. Here are their respective ERA's against the Sox this year, followed by our top three.

Sabathia: 2.95
Burnett: 8.85
Pettitte: 4.00
Chamberlain: 5.06

Beckett: 5.34
Lester: 2.70
Buchholz: 3.00

You know what this tells me? Pitchers have more trouble against good lineups than bad ones. Shocking, eh? Hell, Burnett has terrible ERA's against quite a few of the top teams in baseball, having a 5+ against Boston, LAA, CHW, and Philly. He's only sub 4 against Oakland, Texas, the Mets, Florida and Tampa Bay. If we matched up in order, I'd think we were likely to split the first two and would have a decent shot in game 3. And that's without a dominant Beckett.

There's also the fact that Sabathia hasn't faired well in the post season yet in his career. Probably SSS noise, but who knows? Maybe there's something to it... I like our chances against the Yankees head to head. They're a great team, to be sure... and as far as the regular season goes, they're the better team. But head to head, things are never quite that cut and dry.

[Hoser Awfulman]

The Sox can win it all this year, but lots of things will need to go right. Beckett, Oki, and Ramon Ramirez need rest going into the playoffs. Tito needs a family-sized tube of superglue, which should be regularly applied to Varitek's ass before every game. Lester needs to remain dominant, and Buchholz must maintain or improve his current level of production. The offense needs to lose the noodle bats and stay consistent. Somebody out of the group of Daisuke, Wakefield, Tazawa, or Bowden needs to step up and be productive; this last point may prove to be the most unlikely of the list. As it is, all of these things going right seems like a long shot.

If these things go well, we look towards the playoffs, in which the Sox should be able to handle LAAAAA as usual. The Yanks will be a supreme challenge; however, a rested and rejuvenated bullpen should help match up with the Yanks lineup, and a consistent, patient Sox offense should be able to work the Yankees staff, particularly the bullpen. If the Sox make it to the WS, I'd bet on seeing Philly or LA. Regardless, if they can beat the Yanks they should be able to take any NL team.

Either way the Sox have some work to do this winter.

[Eric Van]

Here are all the Game Scores of the potential playoff starters, ranked simply from best to worst and placed next to each other for comparison. GS is a great quick-and-dirty tool for this because it emphasizes Ks and studies have shown that K rate correlates to post-season success.

I've put Lester next to CC but you can see that we match up favorably in the 1 and 2 slots no matter how you arrange it -- provided Beckett is not struggling in his lower third of start quality.

Of course, if CB is the 3 starter and Dice-K or whomever is 4, that's different.

Sox and MFY Game Scores

CCS	JL		AJB	JB		AP	TW		JC	CB
86	88		82	88		82	76		79	80
82	80		77	84		74			72
80	78		76	76		72	73		70
75	76		74	76		69	69		69	61
73	75		73	76		68			69
73	75		69	74		65	66		60
70	75		65	74		64	66		60	59
69	71		62	71		63
68	70		62	71		61	63		54
67	70					61	55		53	57
65	61		61	68		57			51
62	61		60	68		56	55		50
61	58		56	61		54	49		49	50
60	57		55	58		54			49
56			54	58
56	57		51	57		53	47		48
56	56		50	50		51	47		45	50
54	55		49	49		48			44
53	54		49	48		48	45		43
52	54					46	45		42	46
51	52		45	47		38			39
44	47		44	44		37	43
44	42		44	43		36	42		37	39
42	41		41	41		36			37
39	38		28	37		31	37		36
34	35		22	29		30	36		31	24
33	34		19	25		29			30
30	33		18	21		27	23		21
18	16		17	14		24	13		18	15

[biollante]

The Sox need Beckett and good pitching all around. The hitting is ok but isn't going to be able to make up for poor pitching. Getting into the playoffs is always the first step - everything after that makes victory possible.

[jimc]

It's not just the Yankees - we can go toe to toe with any of our probable AL opponents. The arguable top 4 for each contender stack up like so (keeping Kazmir out of the Angels' rotation):

Prospective AL playoff rotations

Red Sox			Angels			Tigers			Yankees
SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP
Lester	3.44	1.22	Lackey	3.74	1.25	Jackson	3.10	1.24	Sabathia	3.48	1.13
Beckett	3.87	1.16	Weaver	3.79	1.24	Verlander	3.29	1.15	Pettitte	4.10	1.35
Wakefield?	4.22	1.36	Saunders	4.97	1.48	Porcello	4.18	1.34	Burnett	4.29	1.41
Buchholz	4.40	1.50	Santana	5.68	1.54	Galarraga	5.36	1.55	Chamberlain	4.41	1.53

None of these teams will be thrilled with what they're throwing in games three and four of a potential ALCS. The only thing that makes the situation different for the Sox is health; whichever of Matsuzaka or Wakefield (hell, Tazawa or Bowden too) can have a fighting chance of throwing 6 IP, 4 ER will at least make a game interesting.

Same is true for the bullpen:

Prospective AL playoff bullpens

Red Sox			Angels			Tigers			Yankees
SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP	SP	ERA	WHIP
Papelbon	1.81	1.22	Fuentes	3.91	1.3	Rodney	3.41	1.34	Rivera	1.78	0.90
Bullpen	3.64	1.38	Bullpen	4.61	1.46	Bullpen	4.12	1.42	Bullpen	4.11	1.26

I agree that rest and careful usage this month will pay dividends in October, but nothing in the last few years suggests that Tito and co. won't play it that way if the wild card race permits.

If we were looking at these raw stats from the other side, we'd be pretty worried about facing Boston in a short series. Of course it matters that we've seen the games and seen Okajima and Beckett struggle and Wakefield try to stay healthy and Matsuzaka try to actually be a major league pitcher in 2009, but the question marks can't obscure the fact that this pitching staff is built well for a playoff series, especially with the improvements in the field we've seen since the ASB.

[hair and cheese]

It would be an ideal time for a six week laser show. An eight game homestand would be the perfect place to start. It's not neccesary but it would be great if Pedroia could get on base more for Vic and Youk. Beyond that, a healthy Beckett makes them as worthy as anyone in October.

[PrometheusWakefi...]

There's also the fact that Sabathia hasn't faired well in the post season yet in his career. Probably SSS noise, but who knows? Maybe there's something to it

Sabathia's approach was all wrong in both Game 1 and Game 5 of the ALCS in 2007. He was nibbling. He fell behind in counts again and again. His pitch count was out of control (112 pitches in 6 innings in Game 5). He was rattled by the atmosphere and rattled even more by the patient approach the Sox took at the plate. He was likewise awful in Game 2 of the ALDS last year - 5 runs in 3.2 innings, which is by far his worst start overall for Milwaukee. Seven walks in 10.1 innings in 2007 - more than he gave up in May, June, July, or September of that year. Four walks in his one start in 2008. Maybe he's matured as a pitcher since then, but it is remarkable how bad he's been in the playoffs given how good he's been in the regular season. It's not sample size. He's been a completely different pitcher in the post-season.

If I'm a Yankee fan, Sabathia is my #1 concern heading into this post-season. If he sucks again, their rotation looks pretty mediocre.

This post has been edited by PrometheusWakefield: Sep 7 2009, 08:48 PM

[RedSox04]

I think the biggest thing that could swing things in the Sox favor would be the total maturation of Clay Buchholz. When his curve is working, he can be an ace.

If Beckett gets back to being Beckett, Lester keeps on keeping on, and Buchholz steps things up a notch, then the Sox have three front-line ace caliber starters.

It would help if Daisuke could be a five to six inning Game 4 pitcher. He could even put up linescores like last year where he'd throw 115 pitches in 5.1 innings, walk 4 guys, give up 4 hits, but only allow 1 run. The Sox have the bullpen to cover those innings in the post-season.

The offense would have to be functional, particularly on the road where the Sox offense is a one-trick pony, hitting HRs. The Sox need to have timely hitting which is something that comes and goes. The Sox obviously need it, particularly on the road.

At home, the Sox are more capable of bludgeoning their opponents.

These are things the Sox must do, but in all honesty, I think for the Sox to be a very serious World Series threat, Justin Verlander needs to be dominating against NY. If the Tigers can take out NY, that would pave a very good path for the Sox to win the World Series. The Yankees are the best in baseball right now and have been playing .750 baseball for a very long stretch of the season. They're playing the way the Sox did down the stretch in '04, which is why I feel they're the biggest threat there is, but they're not an insurmountable threat. Great pitching can beat great hitting and going back to my original point, I think Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz need to set the tone and be sensational.

[Alcohol&Over...]

There is, however, very little historic correlation between regular-season RS and post-season success. It really does appear to be all about pitching and defense in a short series.

The Yankees superiority can be negated in a short stories with an on-his game Beckett.

Yeah, I agree. All defensive metrics seem to point to the Yankees being a superior defensive team, as well, and the Red Sox major advantage in the bullpen can be at least partially offset by the Yankees front-loading all of the important innings to Rivera and Hughes - that really means the run prevention will have to come from the starters, and while there's a chance to escape with a great 5IP performance from Buchholz/Matsuzaka and bullpen depth, Ace Beckett would be the easiest way to get to that point.

[RedOctober3829]

Offense
--Need Ellsbury and Pedroia to be on as much as possible in front of VMart/Bay. This is what happened with Pedroia and Youks in 2007 in front of Ortiz/Ramirez.

--Papi and Lowell need to be hot to provide a powerful DH platoon. If they face the MFY, a hot Papi could really take advantage of the right field wall.

--Drew needs to go on one of his playoff runs.

Pitching
--Obviously, Beckett needs to return to form.

--Delcarmen and/or Saito need to step up to provide quality innings in the 5th/6th/7th in case any of the starters falter. Keeping a team in the game in the middle innings can let the offense have time to get back into a game.

--The dominant Daniel Bard needs to show up. Wagner and Papelbon is a nice back of the pen, but if you add a dominant Bard it becomes lethal.


Basically, if Beckett comes back to July form to make the front of the rotation the best 1/2 in the AL and the offense doesn't go in the tank like today but rather takes the form of the past 2 weeks they will be fine. The playoffs are all about power pitching, timely hitting, and solid defense and the Red Sox have all three.

This post has been edited by RedOctober3829: Sep 7 2009, 09:19 PM

[luckysox]

Clay. Buchholz.

He'll be the difference maker one way or the other. Write it down.

[86spike]

A lot of you are automatically conceding the Det/MFY series to NY. I'm not.

My biggest concern going into the playoffs is the cold road hitting. Boston is going to need a few wins away from Fenway and they're going to need some good offense (against good pitching no less) on the road to do it.