What the holy hell is wrong with Beckett? Options

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

He was scored upon in 10 straight innings before finally getting a scoreless one tonight.

He has allowed 9 home runs in his last 12 innings.

Jayson Stark tweeted this: Beckett had allowed 7 earned runs at Fenway since May 23 -- and seven in 4 2/3 tonight.

Tonight he gave up home runs on both the four seamer and the curve. Game thread reports have his command off and the curve hanging all night.

What is the problem here? Injury? Tipping pitches? Mechanical problems? Just a slump? By all appearances there is something seriously wrong with this guy.

Discuss.

[kmueller]

I think most people in the game thread are hitting the panic button a little too early.

He has sucked the past two games, but 11 days ago he was brilliant, against a first place team no less.

He may be a little tired, Joe Morgan (yes I hate him) talked about his arm speed being down. The Sox are home through his next start, right? So he should be able to get rested up, and lets hope he is back....

[NomarRS05]

Beckett had allowed 0 ER in three of five starts before looking awful in Toronto and tonight against the Yankees. His K/BB over those five starts was 35/7.

It's highly disturbing that he has looked this bad over his last two starts, especially since one of them was against the Yankees on a night where Sabathia looked vulnerable. There's little question that the Red Sox can ill afford to have Beckett flail down the stretch in 2009. But I'm not ready to hit the panic button yet. Two games just isn't enough to convince me that this is going to continue given his performance leading up to this stretch.

This post has been edited by NomarRS05: Aug 23 2009, 09:12 PM

[redinchicago]

Combo of stuff and location. His curve doesn't seem to have the bite. Velocity is there, but obviously velocity isn't a concern or something to look at usually. Noticing that he has thrown more cutters and change ups the last couple of innings. Playing to contact more.

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

[kmueller]

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

Could the lousy curve be a blister thing? I haven't seen him looking at his fingers at all, just curious.

[JMDurron]

I don't think that tipping pitches is the problem here. It didn't take a special "in" for Jeter and Matsui to know that they'd be getting 1st pitch fastballs early on in the game. Given the inconsistent/mediocre curveball (note that Beckett seemed to get it back for a little while before losing it again to A-Rod), lousy fastball control (the common thing seems to have been the gloves of Martinez and Varitek moving quite a bit to catch his fastballs in his last two starts), and the fact that there has been no hint of any sort of injury issue, I think we are looking at a temporary mechanical/slump issue. Lousy time for it, but I think that's what we're seeing right now.

[redinchicago]

I don't think that tipping pitches is the problem here. It didn't take a special "in" for Jeter and Matsui to know that they'd be getting 1st pitch fastballs early on in the game. Given the inconsistent/mediocre curveball (note that Beckett seemed to get it back for a little while before losing it again to A-Rod).

Actually the 3-1 curve right before A-Rod's HR was his best of the night, IMO. Could be ARod was looking fastball on that pitch, but the bite and combo of ARod backing away on a called curve strike. So the inconsistency was pitch by pitch.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Quick pitch f/x notes:

1) CB is flatter. He's getting two inches less break than before these last two starts.
2) Throwing way too many strikes. His strike% has been in the 70-80's nearly every inning. Needs to work batters more.
3) Two seem is slower and isn't getting the break it usually does.

Now, maybe a more knowledgeable pitch f/x person can fill in some of the rest.

[Al Zarilla]

Just thought of something: Beckett has really good control with all of his pitches. He's always around the strike zone, never really wild, walks few. So, people dig in against him. Maybe he needs to start drilling a few people. Of course, that doesn't explain his '07 very well though.

[Zupcic Fan]

Well, there is good news tonight at least. We can stop blaming Victor Martinez.

[paulftodd]

He has sucked the past two games, but 11 days ago he was brilliant, against a first place team no less.

He may be a little tired, Joe Morgan (yes I hate him) talked about his arm speed being down. The Sox are home through his next start, right? So he should be able to get rested up, and lets hope he is back....

The funny thing about arm problems is they can come up suddenly. Past performance means nothing. Not saying he has arm problems (or arm fatigue) since I have no idea.

If he is tired and his arm speed is down, someone should tell the Red Sox, since they let him come out in the 8th and throw 120 pitches despite his having an off night with a well rested bullpen.

Actually the 3-1 curve right before A-Rod's HR was his best of the night, IMO. Could be ARod was looking fastball on that pitch, but the bite and combo of ARod backing away on a called curve strike. So the inconsistency was pitch by pitch.

It was also right over the middle of the plate, and the next pitch was exactly the same pitch in the same location, to my eyes anyways. Only difference is A-Rod picked it up after seeing the same pitch the pitch before, and was ready for it the 2nd time. With a 3-1 pitch he was likely looking FB. At 3-2 he had to be ready for the CB as well as the FB. Maybe a better location would have had a different outcome.

This post has been edited by paulftodd: Aug 23 2009, 11:13 PM

[Paul M]

A lot of starters wear down in the final 6 weeks and Beckett looks like he's a little off for some reason. I just hope he's healthy the rest of the way.

Arod has become more of a guess hitter (his statistical profile seems to back this up a little), imo, lately and the HR off Tazawa and the one tonight both came off curveballs with two strikes. I don't like speeding Arod's bat up anymore and I think Beckett needs to pitch righties inside a lot more effectively.

He's going to give up HRs, as he's so around the plate, but stringing hits together and mutliple HR innings is definitely not what you expect with him.

I'm not too worried yet as it was only 10 days or so ago he looked great against the same team. Problem is this race will not allow them the luxury to back off him too much the rest of the way.

[Sprowl]

Combo of stuff and location. His curve doesn't seem to have the bite. Velocity is there, but obviously velocity isn't a concern or something to look at usually. Noticing that he has thrown more cutters and change ups the last couple of innings. Playing to contact more.

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

Five hits and two home runs off Beckett's curve is unprecedented. The changeup and cutter were Beckett's best pitches today, until Matsui's second homer on a cutter that Beckett tried to get inside but left middle-in. I think the Yankees were looking for outside-half get-me-over 4-seamers early in the count, and went up hacking. Good plan. I also suspect that Beckett's curve, his only real offspeed pitch, can sometimes be identified by release point, so the batter just have to guess curve or fastball, and take a gamble that it won't turn out to be a cutter or change.

Quick pitch f/x notes:

1) CB is flatter. He's getting two inches less break than before these last two starts.
2) Throwing way too many strikes. His strike% has been in the 70-80's nearly every inning. Needs to work batters more.
3) Two seem is slower and isn't getting the break it usually does.

1 - definitely: Beckett was throwing slurves to the Yankees, with more horizontal than vertical movement. A slurve is fine if you want to throw a brushback pitch that fades back over the inside corner (as Sabathia threw to Ellsbury for a called strike 3). If it's going right down Broadway, it needs all the spin converted into vertical drop. Beckett grooved a lot of curves (see A-Rod chart below).

2 - yea, when the opponents are up there hacking, Beckett has to get smarter. He has been able to blow most teams away this season by daring them to hit his fastball.

3 - my only disagreement: his 2-seamer is just as fast (even faster tonight) as his 4-seamer, and had some strong visible movement to my eyes. I would guess that the division between the fastballs comes around the -8.5" horizontal break line. The sinker-cutter-changeup alternation was all that worked for Beckett with his two main pitches apparently easily identified by the hitters. The release point data isn't damning, but it's worrying: it's lower than normal for Beckett.

It was also right over the middle of the plate, and the next pitch was exactly the same pitch in the same location, to my eyes anyways. Only difference is A-Rod picked it up after seeing the same pitch the pitch before, and was ready for it the 2nd time. With a 3-1 pitch he was likely looking FB. At 3-2 he had to be ready for the CB as well as the FB. Maybe a better location would have had a different outcome.

A-Rod got three curves in a row, the last two in exactly the same place. Calling for the same offspeed pitch in the same place has bitten both Martinez and Varitek lately, and A-Rod has shown that he can hit the low curve already.

[Jnai]

Two other notes:
1) Four of the home runs (how often can you say that?) and three of the singles came on pitches that caught *way* too much of the plate.

2) Beckett was surprisingly unwilling to come inside the entire game, throwing the fast majority of his pitches to the outer half. He hardly used the inside edge of the plate at all. On that same graph, you can also see the huge number of curveballs left out over the plate.

[Sparky Lyle]

Arrogance.


Nothing scientific. Just arrogance.


And presumptuousness.



That Yankees line-up isn't just going to bend over the kitchen table and spread its ass cheeks and let Josh Fucking Beckett fuck 'em up the arse.


5 home runs.

FIVE HOME RUNS. Only one of which was a home run with men on base.

FIVE HOME RUNS.

That is pure sloth. From an arrogant, talented, gifted cunt.

That's 10 home runs in the last 20 and 1/3 innings.


Five in one game.

Go fuck yourself, Josh, you prick!

[LondonSox]

This should mark the turning point, Beckett making a run for Cy Young thread started immediately before the 2 crappy starts,
now we've gone from Beckett is the best to panic mode, that should reverse the karma.

[behindthepen]

As I posted in the premature CY thread, it's not 2 bad starts, it's 3.
He put up good numbers vs. Detroit in the start before @Toronto, but the weather was cool and wet, and he gave up several very hard hit warning track shots, as well as 2 HR. So whatever it is, it's been happening for 3 starts now.

[ctsoxfan5]

From Buster Olney:

Why Beckett lost, from Trevor Ebaugh of ESPN Stats & Information: The Yankees' home run data from Sunday night showed a definite trend in how to approach Beckett -- look for a first-pitch fastball, then curveball with two strikes. Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui's leadoff homers in the first and second innings were both off fastballs. Robinson Cano and A-Rod later followed with homers off two-strike curveballs. This proved to be a great approach: Beckett threw 25 of 33 first-pitch fastballs (76 percent versus 59 percent overall). Beckett threw curveballs in eight of 18 of at-bats that reached two-strike counts (44 percent versus 25 percent overall).

Olney - Insider Required

[Laschelle Tarver]

From Buster Olney:



Olney - Insider Required

I don't mind the throwing the curveball with two strikes, but they were awful pitches in terms of execution. I believe the Teixeira base hit scoring a run in the third was also on a hanging curve. Regardless of whether or not you know it's coming, a good curveball should not be a pitch that is easily pulled.

[JimD]

That just seems way too simple.