Wakefield's Shoulder and Potential Retirement Options

[bd11]

A source close to the team who I trust told me yesterday that Wake's shoulder has really been bothering him and he is seriously contemplating retirement. The source has been wrong on rare occasions but is usually dead on. Has anyone else heard anything about this?

Obviously losing Wake would be a big blow considering his salary and undeniable usefulness as a fifth starter. However if Wake retires it might make the Sox more of a player in the free agent market and would free up Wake's 4-5m per year in salary. Obviously it would be in the team's best interests to keep this info quiet for as long as possible so free agents and potential trade partners would not feel as though they could exploit this hole in the rotation. It also could make it less likely that the Sox would peddle Bowden or Buchholz for one of the Texas 3. Not trading for one of the Texas 3 could result in Tek becoming a tad more attractive to the FO. If this report is true there could be a ton of ramifications as I just illustrated.

[mabrowndog]

Unlike most rumors that get floated around here, this is one I'm inclined to believe. It's certainly not far-fetched considering Tim's age and recent history. Wake's had shoulder problems each of the last two seasons -- his August DL stint this year, and the persistent issue that plagued him last year right through the postseason.

Due to recurring shoulder problems, Wakefield said he spoke with Red Sox management and the club’s medical staff, and the decision was made to shut it down. It is believed that he will not need off-season surgery, but he will undergo extensive testing at season’s end, including an arthrogram MRI where dye is injected into the shoulder. It’s not known at this point whether it’s a rotator cuff issue or a torn labrum.

According to Wakefield, the injury began with inflammation in his posterior shoulder and back.

If there's any truth to it, I just hope an internal decision is made sooner rather than later. The most important point bd11 brought up, IMO, is how this would affect Boston's pursuit of another free agent pitcher.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Nov 15 2008, 07:26 PM

[Rasputin]

He needs to win 29 more games before he retires so obviously this rumor is bunk.

[E5 Yaz]

He needs to win 29 more games before he retires so obviously this rumor is bunk.

You expect him to hold out 5 more years?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if it comes out that the picking up of the option was done not just to cover their bases, but to make the Sox seem less needy for an additional starter.

[Rasputin]

You expect him to hold out 5 more years?

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

Obviously he needs to do whatever he needs to do. I wouldn't be doing my job if it caused me tons of pain.

Also, I wonder about the Mirabelli thing.

[E5 Yaz]

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

The original statement merited the response.

[koufax32]

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

Obviously he needs to do whatever he needs to do. I wouldn't be doing my job if it caused me tons of pain.

Also, I wonder about the Mirabelli thing.

Eh?

I sincerely hope this rumor isn't accuarate. If so it would explain the persistent talk of Boston's interest in Derek Lowe. Ordinarily the terms he's seeking would put this FO off...unless they're more desparate than they appear.

[mabrowndog]

I sincerely hope this rumor isn't accuarate. If so it would explain the persistent talk of Boston's interest in Derek Lowe. Ordinarily the terms he's seeking would put this FO off...unless they're more desparate than they appear.

I think their interest in Lowe was validated even with a healthy Wakefield returning in 2009. Are you suggesting that the front office was going to rest on their laurels simply because Tim's option was picked up, and that they were satisfied with their depth at the #4 and #5 slots? Not a chance.

If this rumor is true, then it puts the Sox squarely in the hunt for TWO upper-tier starting pitchers, not just one.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Nov 15 2008, 08:18 PM

[koufax32]

I think their interest in Lowe was validated even with a healthy Wakefield returning in 2009. Are you suggesting that the front office was going to rest on their laurels simply because Tim's option was picked up, and that they were satisfied with their depth at the #4 and #5 slots? Not a chance.

If this rumor is true, then it puts the Sox squarely in the hunt for TWO upper-tier starting pitchers, not just one.

No, but there would not be a need for a pitcher in Lowe's salary/length of contract ballpark. IMO, Brad Penny would be a good pickup if Wake is healthy. Now (again, if it's true) there's a greater need for a known quantity like Lowe.

Two "upper-tier" pitchers? I assume you suggest this thinking that the Sox will not land Texeira.

This post has been edited by koufax32: Nov 15 2008, 08:42 PM

[Corsi Combover]

Just for reference, what else has this source been right about?

[Foulkey Reese]

Well we all knew that this would happen eventually I guess. I just hope that he straight out retires (if he needs to) instead of trying to pitch through pain all season.

[Corsi Combover]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

[E5 Yaz]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

Could've been worse. Could've been $8M. ...d'oh

[Corsi Combover]

Could've been worse. Could've been $8M. ...d'oh

Let's just hope Wakefield doesn't rip Bay for being a lazy Canadian this season.

[Montana Fan]

Paul Byrd anyone? At the end of the season I looked at it as Wake or Byrd but not both in '09. It seemed so likely to be Wake that I don't think anyone has thought about Byrd. I'd love to see the 4&5 be Lowe (3 years + option) & Byrd (2 years, tradeable) to start the season, with Masterson in the pen and Buchholz, Bowden & Bard in AAA.

[jsinger121]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

Wake could still announce his retirement and the Sox wouldn't be on the hook for the money.

[bowiac]

Wake could still announce his retirement and the Sox wouldn't be on the hook for the money.

I suspect they'd give him the money regardless. Maybe have him retire and sign him to a consulting deal for identical dollars for luxury tax purposes (although that sort of thing is pretty iffy).

[Bowlerman9]

I suspect they'd give him the money regardless. Maybe have him retire and sign him to a consulting deal for identical dollars for luxury tax purposes (although that sort of thing is pretty iffy).

Why would they do this? I know there are some nice guys in the FO, but if he retires, why would they still pay him 4M?

I dont disagree that he will end up in the Sox organization at some point (and IMO he will take a few years off to spend with his family before this happens), but to pay him his salary when they dont have to seems .... well ..... dumb.

[bowiac]

Why would they do this? I know there are some nice guys in the FO, but if he retires, why would they still pay him 4M?

I dont disagree that he will end up in the Sox organization at some point (and IMO he will take a few years off to spend with his family before this happens), but to pay him his salary when they dont have to seems .... well ..... dumb.

Because of the nature of his current contract with the Red Sox. The perpetual options at below market value suggest a very congenial relationship. Sufficiently so that I suspect they might be inclined to pay him the money regardless once they picked up the option.

[mabrowndog]

No, but there would not be a need for a pitcher in Lowe's salary/length of contract ballpark. IMO, Brad Penny would be a good pickup if Wake is healthy. Now (again, if it's true) there's a greater need for a known quantity like Lowe.

Two "upper-tier" pitchers? I assume you suggest this thinking that the Sox will not land Texeira.

On your first point, if the Sox can afford Derek Lowe or the like (and they most certainly can), why would they "settle" for Penny, the oft-injured Ben Sheets, or any other less expensive/injury prone option? This latter group would be part of the "second free agent" group, IMO -- which could also include Burnett. Since when has Theo operated with the "Eh, we've got enough talent on hand" shoulder shrug?

On your second point, have you done the math regarding the total cash commitments the Sox removed from their bottom line this off-season?? So far, they've culled nearly $34 million from their $134M payroll. They'll probably wind up owing around $10 million in salary to the aribtration-eligible Youkilis, Papelbon, Lopez (and Cash if he returns). Meanwhile they're only obligated to pay a little over the $392k MLB minimum to their 7 youngsters (Pedroia, Lester, DC, Ellsbury, Aardsma, Buchholz & Lowrie), or around $3M, but let's go ahead and call it $5M just in case they're feeling generous and benevolent with Pedroia and Lester after their stellar seasons. The rest of the holdovers (Drew, Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett, Lugo, Daisuke, Bay, Crisp, Okajima & Wake) are due about $85M, bringing the team's total to about $100 million -- or $96M without Wake.

The luxury tax threshold for 2009 is about $160M. That leaves $64M of dollar-for-dollar flexibility, so if they chose to they could certainly absorb payouts to the likes of Teixeira, Lowe, and Burnett. And opting for Penny/Sheets/etc in lieu of the pricier Burnett would be a slam dunk in terms of feasibility.

Not that I'd necessarily endorse such a strategy, nor would I expect them to wind up shelling out more than $60M total to a trio of players. But they will absolutely be active bidders for the types of players I mentioned, and will not be content with some scrap heap waiver claim to fill Wakefield's role.