Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

Jed Zeppelin

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Tonight is all I have to point to to argue how meaningless it is that other teams have reason to tank while Brooklyn does not.
 

smastroyin

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I hate how bad the Suns are right now. I know Eric Bledsoe is a great player, but is he really the entire difference from being a 4-6 seed in the West to the worst team in the league (which IIRC they've been since he went down)
 

bowiac

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I hate how bad the Suns are right now. I know Eric Bledsoe is a great player, but is he really the entire difference from being a 4-6 seed in the West to the worst team in the league (which IIRC they've been since he went down)
They lost Knight too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tonight is all I have to point to to argue how meaningless it is that other teams have reason to tank while Brooklyn does not.
This is the drum I've been beating as well. The players on these bad teams are not purposely trying to lose as it does not benefit their careers and these teams have no stars playing right now to where them being shut down (like Pierce in 2007) causes more losses. The Nets can lose plenty without needing to manufacture why players on other terrible teams would want to lose games.
 

In my lifetime

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Risky time for Brooklyn's #3 tank position
Sun's next 5 opponents (#1,2,3,6 and 15 ranked teams): Thunder, GS, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers. So an extension of their losing streak to 12 is likely.
 

BigSoxFan

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And the Nets have a pretty easy schedule coming up. Going to be a close race but I ultimately think Phoenix takes it.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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That was stupid as hell. I hate how much shitty basketball I've forced myself to watch this season.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Only two games tonight and neither are relevant to our picks, so here's where things stand as we enter the break:
Nets are tied for 3rd with the Suns at 14-40. The Lakers are 3.5 back and the Sixers are 5.5 back. The latter would probably need to sweep their last two against Brooklyn to have any shot. The only team in shouting distance ahead of the Nets/Suns is Minnesota at 3 games ahead, but they have been pretty competitive lately. We'll know a lot more about how this will shake out after Brooklyn's 9 game trip coming up which includes several hypothetically winnable games. If they continue to limp through that, a top 4 lotto chance would be fairly secure.

The Mavs still have the inside track on a playoff spot but they are now just 2 games ahead of 9th place Houston and 1.5 up on the streaking Jazz and Blazers (both 8-2 in their last 10). If not for some ungodly play in late-and-close situations they would already be on the outside looking in. Barring a total collapse from them, their floor is the 9th spot in the west which would likely result in the 13th or 14th pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The only team down at the bottom to threaten the Brooklyn pick being 3rd is Phoenix who look like they could finish with 14 wins (hyperbole....I think). Unfortunately they are tied with the Nets. We are looking squarely at the 4th spot right now with it really only coming down to Brooklyn and the Suns games as meaningful for our first pick.
 

smastroyin

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3rd and 4th place in the lottery seem to have almost exactly the same value, it's only a little bit less chance of getting the number 1 or being in the top 3. Still, hopes of creeping up to #2 seem to be gone, even if the Nets lose a ton, the Suns are in just as much a race to "pass" the Lakers it seems.
 

bowiac

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My projected standings remaining (look to the "Average" column). The last column gives remaining strength of schedule - 0 is average, higher numbers mean harder schedules.

 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I hope your projections are right. It would be great to see BKL finish behind PHO for 3rd worst record.

Dallas continues to annoy me, sitting at #6 in the West with the Gasol-less Grizz 3 games up for #5. However, they are only 2 games up on Houston sitting at 9, with POR and UTA between them. With a tough schedule ahead, we'll have to watch how their older roster holds up. I doubt Houston will present much of a problem, but the young POR and UTA squads should be playing hard trying to avoid GS and SA in the first round.
 

amfox1

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Top 15 prospects (ranked by two or more of ESPN.com (big board 5.0), nbadraft.net, draftexpress.com)
Ben Simmons (1, 1, 1)
Brandon Ingram (2, 2, 2)
Dragan Bender (3, 3, 3)
Henry Ellenson (4, 19, 6)
Kris Dunn (5, 5, 4)
Jaylen Brown (6, 4, 5)
Jakob Poeltl (7, 9, 7)
Jamal Murray (8, 7, 8)
Buddy Hield (9, 6, 11)
Furkan Korkmaz (10, 13, 14)
Ivan Rabb (11, 8, 13)
Diamond Stone (12, 16, 9)
Skal Labissiere (13, *, 10)

Ranked top 15 by only one of the three:
Deyonta Davis (10, ND)
Brice Johnson (11, ND)
Stephen Zimmerman (12, ND)
Demetrious Jackson (12, DE)
Marquese Chriss (14, ESPN)
Domantas Sabonas (14, ND)
Wade Baldwin (15, ESPN)
Grayson Allen (15, ND)
Timothe Luwawu (15, DE)

* ND has Labissiere going back to school
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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One thing I was not aware of, and was mentioned in their last game, is that Jamal Murray should be a high school senior right now. He reclassified and was accepted a year early. He's only 18 and he's putting up some serious numbers for Kentucky right now. If the C's miss out on a top 2 pick, I'd like them to take a serious look at Murray. Only freshman to score 30+ pts twice in a season under Coach Cal (I believe) and he's still going. Has scored in double figures in all but one game, shooting 44% from the field and 40% from 3. Could cut down on the turnovers and up his assists, as he's averaging 2.5 TO's to 2.2 assists, but he's been playing some really good basketball lately.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nbadraft.net has some funky stuff going on. Ellenson at 19? Skal returning to school, 32-yr old Hield over 18-yr old Murray......

Good to see an opinion that doesn't fall into what everyone else is saying but some of these are downright bizarre. Interesting to see where they are moving forward and how they end up on draft night.
 

EL Jeffe

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One thing I was not aware of, and was mentioned in their last game, is that Jamal Murray should be a high school senior right now. He reclassified and was accepted a year early. He's only 18 and he's putting up some serious numbers for Kentucky right now. If the C's miss out on a top 2 pick, I'd like them to take a serious look at Murray. Only freshman to score 30+ pts twice in a season under Coach Cal (I believe) and he's still going. Has scored in double figures in all but one game, shooting 44% from the field and 40% from 3. Could cut down on the turnovers and up his assists, as he's averaging 2.5 TO's to 2.2 assists, but he's been playing some really good basketball lately.
I've been a huge Murray fanboy since watching him in international competitions last year. He was particularly impressive for Canada in the PanAm games where he became their Alpha Scorer (on a team full of older players, including a couple of NBA bench warmers). I'd absolutely consider Murray at 3 for the Celtics; he provides them with another shooter/scorer who is more creative/skilled than Bradley, more efficient than Smart, and much taller than IT4.

Diamond Stone is another guy on those lists who seems underrated to me. He's a specimen with a soft touch (about 79% from the line) with the potential to be an impact 5 (on both ends of the court). Those guys are so hard to find, so I'd consider Stone around pick 5 or so.
 

Montana Fan

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If the Celt's keep and make Brooklyn's pick as I expect them to, they still will have 2 first round picks, multiple second round picks and a number of prospects (younger players with potential) to trade to move up in the draft. If he doesn't make a trade for a player first, I think Danny will make a strong move to get a second top 8 pick.
 
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nighthob

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My board at the moment reads

  1. Simmons
  2. Ingram
  3. Dunn
  4. Murray
I don't forecast Euros based on mixtapes, so I have no feel for Bender, but those are the prizes of the current pool as far I see. I think that Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are wildcard type guys that could, under the right conditions, blossom into all stars. There are a lot of useful players in this years pool, too, like Buddy Hield, Caris LeVert, or Jakob Poetl. Malik Beasley is another guy to keep an eye on. Not sure what to make of him, half the time I think he has some real upside as a pick in the 16-30 range based on his performance and less than ideal physicals. But the other half of the time I manage to convince myself that he's just a college star.
 

bowiac

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I don't follow college ball closely, but here's a list of the top freshmen in college basketball by BPM.

Simmons is 1s, Ingram is 8th, Murray is 15th.

Any interesting names there? Who's Mikal Bridges?
 

RG33

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My board at the moment reads

  1. Simmons
  2. Ingram
  3. Dunn
  4. Murray
I don't forecast Euros based on mixtapes, so I have no feel for Bender, but those are the prizes of the current pool as far I see. I think that Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are wildcard type guys that could, under the right conditions, blossom into all stars. There are a lot of useful players in this years pool, too, like Buddy Hield, Caris LeVert, or Jakob Poetl. Malik Beasley is another guy to keep an eye on. Not sure what to make of him, half the time I think he has some real upside as a pick in the 16-30 range based on his performance and less than ideal physicals. But the other half of the time I manage to convince myself that he's just a college star.
I'm biased as a PC Alum, but I absolutely love Dunn's game for the NBA and kind of hope we get the #3 pick because he seems to me like a guy Ainge would love too. Great defender, great vision and handle, just needs to work on his shot. He is what Shammgod could have been if he had stayed in school 2-3 more years.

With that said, My friardom might be completely blinding me.
 

tims4wins

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I am a Duke guy but I can't see Ingram's floor as anything worse than Tayshaun Prince with a Durant-type ceiling. I would be THRILLED if the Celts got him
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I am a Duke guy but I can't see Ingram's floor as anything worse than Tayshaun Prince with a Durant-type ceiling. I would be THRILLED if the Celts got him
Every Duke game I start off saying "holy shit Ingram is skinny" and I end every game saying "holy shit Ingram is good."
 

Kliq

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I don't doubt that Dunn is going to be a good player in the NBA, but between Thomas, Bradley and Smart, I don't know how he fits into the team. Dragan Bender is interesting, I've been doing some research on him and this is what I have found.

-Physically he has the ability to be a very good modern NBA big man. 7'1" with a 9'3" standing reach. He is really mobile on both ends of the floor, allowing him to come out and attack ball handlers on the pick and roll on defense as well as get out in transition on offense. Still skinny but also only 18. Highlight packages showcase his ability to use his reach to control rebounds even when bulkier players push him around.
- He plays really hard. Not afraid of contact in the low-post and hits the hardwood a lot scrambling for rebounds and loose balls.
-Stereotypical Euro-big man passer. Can give him the ball on the elbow and he has the size and vision to make great passes. Reminds me a lot of Marc Gasol in this regard.
-Not a three point threat yet, but has a solid mid-range game and can knock down open looks. Good form for a big man and will likely develop three point range over the next couple years.
- He's a good ball handler but lacks confidence in being able to take the ball all the way to the rim, he does this weird floater that never seems to go in instead of taking it strong to the hoop and getting to the free throw line.
- Really good perimeter defender on the wing due to his mobility, but he needs to get better in the paint, where he is late on help defense and needs to improve on protecting the rim.
-Playing professionally right now but not seeing a ton of time as he is on one of the better teams in the Euroleague in Maccabi Tel Aviv.

I think at the very least he can carve out a career in the NBA as a hustle player/banger do to his mentality and quickness. I think most of his problems come from either a) his slim stature, which should fill out as he matures and b) a lack of confidence/experience, which are both things that can easily be improved upon over time. I really like his mobility on both sides of the floor and his potential as an offensive player. Also, I really want to root for someone named Dragan.
 

Auger34

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Both true. The shots he made down the stretch vs. UNC were insane
I am a Duke guy as well and I think Ingram has a chance to be really, really good in the NBA. The toughness and grit he showed in that UNC game was really something to watch. Getting rebounds and defending bigger people while basically playing all game.
Not to mention Ingram is a young Freshman and seems to have a game perfectly suited for today's NBA. I would strongly consider taking him #1 over Simmons
 

nighthob

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I don't doubt that Dunn is going to be a good player in the NBA, but between Thomas, Bradley and Smart, I don't know how he fits into the team.
I've been a fan of Bradley since the beginning. But he's a 6'2" guard that dribbles like a teething infant. You actually need a bigger guard with good handles, like Dunn. Mostly, though, you don't pass over potential all stars because you have a role player at the same spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Diamond Stone is another guy on those lists who seems underrated to me. He's a specimen with a soft touch (about 79% from the line) with the potential to be an impact 5 (on both ends of the court). Those guys are so hard to find, so I'd consider Stone around pick 5 or so.
Stone will be a nice offensive NBA low post player in time, very natural instincts with the ball. His major problem is defense and motivation and hasn't been a full time player most of his freshman season for those reasons. He's made progress defensively as the season has moved on which would have been hard not to do considering how completely lost he was on simple college one-react rotations. He is never going to be an impact player defensively and will have a long way to go to being able to get on an NBA floor between his lack of understanding defensive schemes and energy level having seen him beaten down court due to laziness more than once.

Reminds me of a poor mans Eddy Curry when he first entered the league. The very definition of a project.
 

nighthob

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I'm biased as a PC Alum, but I absolutely love Dunn's game for the NBA and kind of hope we get the #3 pick because he seems to me like a guy Ainge would love too. Great defender, great vision and handle, just needs to work on his shot. He is what Shammgod could have been if he had stayed in school 2-3 more years.

With that said, My friardom might be completely blinding me.
Honestly I'm the same about Marquette, when Boston passed on Butler in 2011 the only reason I didn't throw my tumbler at the screen was that the TV was too fucking expensive to break. Before last year when I wrote my "2015 free agent targets" post Jae Crowder was near the top of the list and I didn't stop celebrating for three days after the Rondo deal. But, as I said, I also firmly believed that Vander Blue was going to make it as a third guard in the NBA. (So take my Henry Ellenson love for what it's worth.)
 

chilidawg

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Every Duke game I start off saying "holy shit Ingram is skinny" and I end every game saying "holy shit Ingram is good."
Today he was just skinny. Have to think he's just worn down, because he's looked so good most other times I've seen him. Come to think of it, I was thinking he looked tired the first half against NC, but he was able to rally. Not so today.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah we discussed it a bit over on the college forum but he just looked gassed today. His game has flaws but if I could guarantee that the Celts landed him right now I would accept that in a heartbeat
 

Kliq

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You know bender isn't coming over for at least a few years right cliq?
Probably, I was just looking into him because he seems to be predicted to go in the 3-5 slot that Boston is likely picking in.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You know bender isn't coming over for at least a few years right cliq?
Bender has said he'd be coming over the following summer. Who knows what to believe but that is what he said himself for the start of the 2017-18 season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If Bender isn't coming over for 16/17 Danny wouldn't make him part of his plan would he? This isn't the sixers before the Coangelo hire.
We've discussed this before if this not being Ainge's M.O. so not saying Ainge "wouldn't" go the foreign route only that despite MANY opportunities to do so with players ready to play immediately he just hasn't in the past. The only foreign guys he's drafted in 13 years was Melo, technically from college, and the kid from Turkey with the last pick in the 2nd round who hasn't been in the league in forever.
 

LondonSox

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My understanding is that the first opt out in his long term contract is 2019/20 anything before that will need a buyout agreement, and not a cheap one, and would be a major uncertainty.
I don't know he can go 3rd if he's potentially not available for that long. And certainly would make him a tough fit for the celtics.
 

Auger34

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Stone will be a nice offensive NBA low post player in time, very natural instincts with the ball. His major problem is defense and motivation and hasn't been a full time player most of his freshman season for those reasons. He's made progress defensively as the season has moved on which would have been hard not to do considering how completely lost he was on simple college one-react rotations. He is never going to be an impact player defensively and will have a long way to go to being able to get on an NBA floor between his lack of understanding defensive schemes and energy level having seen him beaten down court due to laziness more than once.

Reminds me of a poor mans Eddy Curry when he first entered the league. The very definition of a project.
HRB, I think you are pretty big on college basketball recruiting but I believe there's more to Stone's negatives than just defense. I read that a team boycotted playing with him because he pulled a "Bynum" (refused to pass and shot every time he caught the ball) those stories mixed with him spearing a player and then driving his head into the floor make me think he has some serious maturity issues
 

EL Jeffe

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Stone will be a nice offensive NBA low post player in time, very natural instincts with the ball. His major problem is defense and motivation and hasn't been a full time player most of his freshman season for those reasons. He's made progress defensively as the season has moved on which would have been hard not to do considering how completely lost he was on simple college one-react rotations. He is never going to be an impact player defensively and will have a long way to go to being able to get on an NBA floor between his lack of understanding defensive schemes and energy level having seen him beaten down court due to laziness more than once.

Reminds me of a poor mans Eddy Curry when he first entered the league. The very definition of a project.
There are definitely red flags with the kid, but I don't know about the Curry comp. Curry was 300# with bad knees coming out of high school while Stone is a solid 250#. He certainly has the size/length to block and alter shots (he blocks about 2/game in 22 minutes), and I think that ability will translate to the next level. He seems light enough on his feet to handle defensive rotations and pick & roll responsibilities. He'll certainly need to be coached up in terms of learning schemes but that's true of most young bigs entering the league. In the handful of games I've watched, his effort (while spotty at times) is ahead of Ben Simmons' (I'm a Simmons fan, but he doesn't even try to defend). Stone's not a safe pick by any means, but KATs don't come around too often. It'll be interesting to see how high Stone goes; my guess is it'll be higher than the gurus have him right now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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There are definitely red flags with the kid, but I don't know about the Curry comp. Curry was 300# with bad knees coming out of high school while Stone is a solid 250#. He certainly has the size/length to block and alter shots (he blocks about 2/game in 22 minutes), and I think that ability will translate to the next level. He seems light enough on his feet to handle defensive rotations and pick & roll responsibilities. He'll certainly need to be coached up in terms of learning schemes but that's true of most young bigs entering the league. In the handful of games I've watched, his effort (while spotty at times) is ahead of Ben Simmons' (I'm a Simmons fan, but he doesn't even try to defend). Stone's not a safe pick by any means, but KATs don't come around too often. It'll be interesting to see how high Stone goes; my guess is it'll be higher than the gurus have him right now.
I haven't watched a ton of college ball this year so I wasn't sure if I had just caught him on a bad day or three. Never seen him provide any kind of help defense which is a little troubling for an NBA prospect.
 

Auger34

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Honestly I'm the same about Marquette, when Boston passed on Butler in 2011 the only reason I didn't throw my tumbler at the screen was that the TV was too fucking expensive to break. Before last year when I wrote my "2015 free agent targets" post Jae Crowder was near the top of the list and I didn't stop celebrating for three days after the Rondo deal. But, as I said, I also firmly believed that Vander Blue was going to make it as a third guard in the NBA. (So take my Henry Ellenson love for what it's worth.)
Surprised you are such an Ellenson fan and you don't have him in your top 4 for the C's. I've barely watched him but I have him at 3 based off of positional needs. What's your scouting report on him?