Who plays 1B next year?

What do you think we should do?


  • Total voters
    400

GaryPeters71

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Jul 29, 2005
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NICK CAFARDO I SUNDAY BASEBALL NOTES
Will the Red Sox meet the asking Price for David?
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/29/red-sox-seen-favorites-land-free-agent-david-price/8zOlzgpkvW6PvCaHt62dKP/story.html

Updates on nine

1. Hanley Ramirez, 1B-DH, Red Sox — There’s now talk in the front office that Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Ramirez in a deal. The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense. There are huge hurdles to cross, however. One is money. With a little more than $68 million remaining on Ramirez’s deal, the Red Sox would need to eat at least half. The other hurdle is position. All three teams would have use for him as a DH. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, after evaluating the Sox organization, knows Ramirez’s weaknesses. Dan Duquette of the Orioles signed Ramirez originally with the Red Sox and has always loved his bat. Duquette also faces the possibility of losing Chris Davis. The Angels could use another bat. There is also a question as to whether Ramirez could play third base. If he lost the 20 pounds the Sox want him to, maybe.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Finn, like so many others, wants Hanley traded:
"A decade later—and just a year after bringing Ramirez back to where he began with a four-year, $88-million deal that has been a breathtaking failure so far—it’s apparent that the Red Sox need to move on from him again..."
(http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2015/11/25/decade-after-the-red-sox-first-traded-hanley-ramirez-time-trade-him-again/9jvD2i6IPvxtLX18FKYfZK/story.html?p1=stream_sports_baseball_redsox)
He concludes: "Where? That’s out of my pay grade. It’s on Dombrowski to find this year’s sucker for Ramirez."

I think the only place that makes sense for Hanley to land is Baltimore - if they don't re-sign Davis. I don't think it's fiscally feasible, but I love the gamesmanship idea of signing Davis away from the Os so we can trade them Hanley.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Maybe the Red Sox should trade Ortiz to the O's instead (joke son, a joke). Ramirez may not be worth the total value of the contract but it's easy to forget how good a hitter he is (fucked up 2015 aside). In 2014 he scored over 100 runs, exceeded his average OPS+ of 129 and stole 14 bases. He hit .429 in the 2014 playoffs (.500 in 2013). The guy can hit. Does anyone think a healthy Ramirez will be below .800 in OPS this year?

Thing is, any team needing a DH will be happy to fuck over the Red Sox and take him at a discount - and then laugh as he hits against the Sox in possibly 72 games. Obviously it comes down to what (if) the Red Sox get anything of value back (I'd like to hear some speculation on that) beside salary relief. Even worse - what if they packaged one of the minor league "untouchables" just to be able to seal a deal?

I understand the Hanley Hate. Much of it is based on his injury history and the fact that he seemingly no longer has a position (which remains unproven). Our DH God is entering his final year and to presume he completes the season without injury, or extended rest, or at his typically high level is to make as much of an assumption as Ramirez' screwing the pooch. Regardless, that still leaves 2017 and 2018.

My hope is that, short of a value-for value trade (i.e. - no salary dump) - the Red Sox take the gamble that a former 3rd baseman in decent health can figure out how to play 1B. There is sort of a comp for him in Cabrera, who started his minor league career as a SS/3B. The Tigers moved him to 1B in 2008 after 7 total appearances there, where he sucked. He was moved back to 3B 4 years later at the age of 31 and knocked the socks off the ball. 2 years down the road he became the permanent 1B again. Point? His value to the team exceeded the issue of finding him a place to play. 2nd Point? No one is Miguel Cabrera, but you don't ever discount a major leaguer with the proven ability to kick the shit out of well-thrown baseballs.

To be consistent, someone who has grave concerns about the impact of Ramirez' salary on the team (over the next 3 years) should be consistent with their opinion on overpaying Price or Greinke and reject that approach. Me? I'm in for doing both...Ramirez and a FA ace. Then again, I've penciled in Sandoval at 1B in 2017...so what do I know.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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NICK CAFARDO I SUNDAY BASEBALL NOTES
Will the Red Sox meet the asking Price for David?
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/29/red-sox-seen-favorites-land-free-agent-david-price/8zOlzgpkvW6PvCaHt62dKP/story.html

Updates on nine

1. Hanley Ramirez, 1B-DH, Red Sox — There’s now talk in the front office that Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Ramirez in a deal. The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense. There are huge hurdles to cross, however. One is money. With a little more than $68 million remaining on Ramirez’s deal, the Red Sox would need to eat at least half. The other hurdle is position. All three teams would have use for him as a DH. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, after evaluating the Sox organization, knows Ramirez’s weaknesses. Dan Duquette of the Orioles signed Ramirez originally with the Red Sox and has always loved his bat. Duquette also faces the possibility of losing Chris Davis. The Angels could use another bat. There is also a question as to whether Ramirez could play third base. If he lost the 20 pounds the Sox want him to, maybe.
I know this isn't the Cafardo thread, but this isn't the first time I've seen the Seattle suggestion, and it has yet to make sense to me. They have Cruz signed for the same duration as Hanley as a DH and Trumbo and eventually Cano as DH candidates beyond him. I know Cruz played a lot of outfield last season, but that says more about the quality of the Mariners' outfielders. Seems to me they'd be better off signing someone from the Upton/Heyward/Gordon/Cespedes group instead. Maybe even two of them.
 

E5 Yaz

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I know this isn't the Cafardo thread, but this isn't the first time I've seen the Seattle suggestion, and it has yet to make sense to me. They have Cruz signed for the same duration as Hanley as a DH and Trumbo and eventually Cano as DH candidates beyond him. I know Cruz played a lot of outfield last season, but that says more about the quality of the Mariners' outfielders. Seems to me they'd be better off signing someone from the Upton/Heyward/Gordon/Cespedes group instead. Maybe even two of them.
It makes even less sense when you add in Nick's mention of the DiPoto connection. What could possibly have Dipoto interested in Hanley, based on his time spent with the Red Sox front office?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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It makes even less sense when you add in Nick's mention of the DiPoto connection. What could possibly have Dipoto interested in Hanley, based on his time spent with the Red Sox front office?
The biggest advantages DiPoto might have is the "inside track" on exactly how much of Hanley's contract the FO could realistically be willing to eat, and then also what tools in a prospect the Sox value most.

So in theory, DiPoto should be able to pay the least, for a guy who, when healthy and not brutally killing the team on defense, would look really good as a #5 after Seager, Cruz, and Cano.
 
Aug 31, 2006
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Actually, Seattle makes a lot of sense. Cruz can still play the outfield and the Mariners need right-handed power. Smith and Trumbo are free agents after 2016, Jesus Montero can't be counted on...that's a team that might be better with Hanley at DH.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Actually, Seattle makes a lot of sense. Cruz can still play the outfield and the Mariners need right-handed power. Smith and Trumbo are free agents after 2016, Jesus Montero can't be counted on...that's a team that might be better with Hanley at DH.
I'm still just not seeing it when there are at least two free agents who will cost about as much as Hanley who provide RH power and will substantially improve the team's outfield defense over whatever Cruz provides.
 

swingin val

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Well the plan would be to get Hanley at 50 cents on the dollar. And if that is the case, you are not getting Upton/Heyward/Gordon/Cespedes for anywhere near that price.
 

MikeM

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Actually, Seattle makes a lot of sense. Cruz can still play the outfield and the Mariners need right-handed power. Smith and Trumbo are free agents after 2016, Jesus Montero can't be counted on...that's a team that might be better with Hanley at DH.
Here's the thing with that though....the other team involved in this trade also has need for right handed power and a bat who can hit 5th in their lineup.

Don't get me totally wrong, as like Geo i completely understand a lot of the current Hanley hate. But paying Seattle half his contract with nothing of note coming back, which essentially just reserves us the right to insert what i'm ultimately guessing ends up being an offensive downgrade (Shaw) into an already highly questionable lineup, just isn't making a lot of overall sense in the actual play out imo. I mean we might end up dumping $250m in the attempt to upgrade next year's pitching staff...while downgrading the lineup? I'm not buying that heavy into August 2015, the likelihood a BBC outfield sticks, and/or the odds that Shaw doesn't get exposed in full time play as being more of the .249/.318/.356 hitter he was in AAA last year.

Sure, there is money getting freed up as well...but what really ends up coming out of that savings? This ownership has never done that type of "we need to cut costs there to spend over here" budget crunching. Personally, I've yet to see a realistic/alternative scenario presented in full that convinces me it's better then simply keeping our chips behind a Hanley rebound bet in 2016.
 

JBJ_HOF

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WEEI: Sunday night, a high-ranking team source definitively told WEEI.com in regards to Ramirez, “He is going to be our first baseman.”
Inclined to believe this because 1. Bradford 2. Cafardo 3. Common sense
 

billy ashley

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Ugh this is such cooked up BS. Cafardo and Mastrodonato fantasy to jettison Hanley and pick up Davis.
Man, Chris Davis' profile is one that ages horribly. As good of a hitter as he is, right now, I would shudder if we gave him a 5 year contract.

Paying Davis 20 million a year once his ISO takes a dive, while also paying 10-12 million to whatever team decides to take on Hanley seems like moving in the wrong direction. I know there's been a lot of jokes about how we're too concerned about Henry's wallet on the main board this week, but I don't think such a series of moves would be good for the near or long term in terms of financial flexibility. It wouldn't be terribly shocking if such a series of moves were to take place that we'd want to dump Davis, while we're still paying Hanley to play elsewhere.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I also don't see the point in a subsidized deal (by money, and worse, possibly prospects as well) to send Hanley away. I would assume the goal would be to upgrade at 1B, but the idea of signing Chris Davis to a long-term big-money deal scares the crap out of me. And as for Hanley, I'm willing to bet that a big part of his offensive struggles were tied to his shoulder injury from running into the wall, and that he'll be at ;east passable at 1B, as opposed to LF.

The problem, as I see it, is that we're then betting on both Hanley and Panda to return to some semblance of their former selves. While I think each is more likely than not, the chances for both happening may be 50-50, at best. But at least there's a plan B if either (or both) were to falter, in the form of Holt and Shaw in 2016, and Devers and Moncada in the longer term. So while I can understand why they may be exploring their options, I suspect that's mostly just due diligence, rather than with a specific intent to move Hanley.
 

Devizier

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I'd like to see the Red Sox pick up another flyer, even with Shaw in the wings.

There's the possibility that Ramirez and Sandoval are terrible again this season. Ramirez carries a higher likelihood given his age, injury history, and the fact that he's at a new position. If that's the outcome, or Ramirez misses a significant chunk of games, that puts the Sox in spot where they're really leaning on Shaw to produce. He did well last season, but there are few guarantees that he can repeat the performance.

One thought I had was for Matt Clark, most recently of the (AAA) Brewers. His numbers are heavily PCL inflated, but he's got legitimate power and might have some (limited) platoon value if Shaw falters. The viability of a signing like this depends on whether the Sox promote Sam Travis to AAA this season.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I agree that it makes more sense to hang onto Hanley and hope he improves than to pay him to play somewhere else and get little in return. But I would keep our expectations modest. I think assuming that he'll be a decent 1B is whistling in the dark, considering that he has never been better than pretty bad at any position--and this is not because he's ever been especially lacking in athleticism, so there's no particular reason why moving to a position where athleticism is in less demand should magically make him better than pretty bad. As for the offense, yeah, the shoulder probably played a role in his 2015 suck, but he's in his thirties now, so simple decline is also likely in its own right. Also, people keep talking as if it's a given that a few months off will fix the shoulder problem. Don't those kinds of injuries sometimes linger?

</debbiedowner>
 

dhappy42

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I understand there's some concern about injury risk, but why are the Sox against Hanley getting reps at 1B in winter ball?
 

The Gray Eagle

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I'd like to see the Red Sox pick up another flyer, even with Shaw in the wings.

There's the possibility that Ramirez and Sandoval are terrible again this season. Ramirez carries a higher likelihood given his age, injury history, and the fact that he's at a new position. If that's the outcome, or Ramirez misses a significant chunk of games, that puts the Sox in spot where they're really leaning on Shaw to produce. He did well last season, but there are few guarantees that he can repeat the performance.

One thought I had was for Matt Clark, most recently of the (AAA) Brewers. His numbers are heavily PCL inflated, but he's got legitimate power and might have some (limited) platoon value if Shaw falters. The viability of a signing like this depends on whether the Sox promote Sam Travis to AAA this season.
Danny Valencia would be a nice pickup, offering a solid RH bat that can cover third or first. So you could dump either Hanley or Pablo, if the opportunity arose. The A's are pretty clearly going to move an infielder, I'd like to see what they would want for Valencia.
 

geoduck no quahog

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So: Cost of Ramirez - Cost Another Team is Willing to Pick Up + Cost of a 1B Replacement (e.g., Napoli) < Cost of Ramirez?

Factor in the assumption that Ramirez will suck at 1B (not a given)
Factor in a replacement for Ortiz in 2017 (not Ramirez)

The equation needs to balance.
 

AB in DC

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Probably even less than that. Assuming days off, Hanley's annual DL stint, filling in at DH, and Travis Shaw playing the final inning or two of many games, I'm thinking, like, a maximum of 100 games' worth of innings at first base.
Also Papi will probably pick up a few games at 1B in National League parks.
 

chrisfont9

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I think you can forget the Seattle idea for Hanley, now that they brought in Lind. And it was never going to work, is my guess, because Seattle would need the Sox to pick up 2/3 of the cost, which I doubt the Sox would do. I don't think DiPoto has much salary space left from what the beat writers out here say. Personally I'm in the camp of keeping him -- until his injured campaign he'd racked up just shy of 10 wins (bWAR) in his previous 200 games. I'll wait to see what he does when healthy before calling him a sunk cost.
 

soxhop411

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Hanley has "changed something" in his swing

Tim Britton ‏@TimBritton 3h3 hours ago
Hanley Ramirez said he feels lighter now that he's down to 234 pounds. Still confident he can handle 1B.
Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 3h3 hours ago
Hanley Ramirez reported to spring training at 240 pounds last year. He said he's at 234 or 235 now. But, he said, "I feel light."
Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 3h3 hours ago
Hanley says he "changed something in my swing." Declined to say what it is. We'll have to watch for it in spring training. #RedSox
 

Plympton91

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235 pounds? No wonder he couldn't take extra outfield without getting sore. Hopefully he's planning on dropping another 10 pounds before spring training games start.
 

shaggydog2000

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235 pounds? No wonder he couldn't take extra outfield without getting sore. Hopefully he's planning on dropping another 10 pounds before spring training games start.
He is a 6'2" pro athlete you know, 235 isn't a crazy weight for that, especially not for a 1st baseman.

Top 5 1st baseman in 2015:

Paul Goldschmidt: 6'3 245
Joey Votto: 6'2 220
Chris Davis: 6'3 230
Anthony Rizzo : 6'3 240
Miguel Cabrera: 6'4 240

And these are the numbers listed on the rosters, Hanley was listed as 225 last year for some reason. They don't update those so often. So 235 seems pretty reasonable for the position. The exact body composition you could argue about, but he looks pretty good in the gym pics so far.
 

rembrat

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The thing is baseball players tend to put on weight as the season marches on so coming into camp at 6'2 240 or even 234 isn't really ideal.
 

nighthob

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I'd say it's pretty close to 100%. If the rumours are true and the NL could be moved on to the DH spot for 2017 there'd be a much bigger market for him next winter than this one. This year they would need to pay freight to get an AL team to take him, so I think it makes a whole lot more sense to give him a shot at 1B. And if he sticks it gives Devers all the time he needs to develop in the minors (whether as a 1B or 3B with Panda moving across the diamond).
 

moondog80

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What odds do people give Hanley to be the Opening Day 1B at this point?

90%? 50%? Do we think DD is bluffing about keeping him and trying to find a suitor, or do we think he's resigned/committed to Hanley on the team?

Close to 100%. Unless he's hurt, he's hitting 5th and playing 1B on opening day.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'd put it at 90%, only because there's probably a 10% chance of his getting hurt in Spring Training.
It's this. There is no market for Hanley Ramirez. Any team who is looking for a good bat who is at best a question mark defensively and better suited to DH can snap up a guy like Pedro Alvarez for pennies relative to Hanley's contract.

Barring injury, Hanley Ramirez is this team's starting first baseman on Opening Day.
 

LostinNJ

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And if he sticks it gives Devers all the time he needs to develop in the minors (whether as a 1B or 3B with Panda moving across the diamond).
Moncada at 3rd, Devers at 1st, Sandoval gone.
Maybe Travis at 1st, Devers at DH and Ramirez gone too.
 

nighthob

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Moncada at 3rd, Devers at 1st, Sandoval gone.
Maybe Travis at 1st, Devers at DH and Ramirez gone too.
I mean the NL moving to the DH is a godsend for Boston, it makes it much easier to move Ramirez in a year's time because there will be 15 teams on the lookout for another hitter.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I mean the NL moving to the DH is a godsend for Boston, it makes it much easier to move Ramirez in a year's time because there will be 15 teams on the lookout for another hitter.
The DH to the NL thing is not happening next year. Manfred said so yesterday:

"The most likely result on the designated hitter for the foreseeable future is the status quo," Manfred said in an interview with ESPN.com in conjunction with his one-year anniversary as commissioner. "I think the vast majority of clubs in the National League want to stay where they are."
 

nighthob

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Pity, the last story I read was that it could happen as soon as 2017. They really need to bite the bullet on this.
 

chrisfont9

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I'd say it's pretty close to 100%. If the rumours are true and the NL could be moved on to the DH spot for 2017 there'd be a much bigger market for him next winter than this one.
Well, the Sox are theoretically among the teams in need of a DH in 2017 too. Assuming Hanley ends 2016 in better standing with the club than after last year, the incentive to move him goes down.
 

nighthob

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Well, the Sox are theoretically among the teams in need of a DH in 2017 too. Assuming Hanley ends 2016 in better standing with the club than after last year, the incentive to move him goes down.
I agree, but they're stuck with Panda, I don't think anyone's touching that contract without Boston paying it. But Hanley would have a market after next year. In any event it's a moot point if enough NL teams are lined up for the crappy status quo.
 

LostinNJ

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I agree, but they're stuck with Panda, I don't think anyone's touching that contract without Boston paying it.
Yes, so just cut him loose as soon as his replacement is ready. By 2017, or 2018 at the latest, he will help the team more by sitting at home than by taking a spot on the 25-man roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The video is from last summer when he first started "trying out" 1B during BP. Hardly indicative of anything considering he's had all winter and will have all of spring training to learn and improve at the position.
 

ALiveH

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he's more flexible than i expected. hopefully he keeps his legs well stretched.
 

JimD

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The media types and a significant portion of the fanbase keep trying to wish Hanley off the Sox roster but it ain't happening. He's the DH in waiting for 2017-18 (and 2019 also if he accumulates 1,000 MLB-quality at-bats in 2017 and 2018). Farrell and Butterfield will try and spackle together an acceptable 1B performance out of Hanley for this season, with him getting at-bats at DH when Papi needs a day off. I hope that he has a good season and that fans cut him some slack when he does makes the (hopefully only) occasional miscue in the field.
 

luckysox

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The media types and a significant portion of the fanbase keep trying to wish Hanley off the Sox roster but it ain't happening. He's the DH in waiting for 2017-18 (and 2019 also if he accumulates 1,000 MLB-quality at-bats in 2017 and 2018). Farrell and Butterfield will try and spackle together an acceptable 1B performance out of Hanley for this season, with him getting at-bats at DH when Papi needs a day off. I hope that he has a good season and that fans cut him some slack when he does makes the (hopefully only) occasional miscue in the field.
I agree, mostly because I think people completely forget that when he is healthy, he RAKES. The man is almost as fun to watch as Manny when he's right. If they find a way to give him some breaks in the field and he manages to stay healthy-ish, he will likely rake next year, too. I was at Opening Day in Philly last year and the man hit jacks (one got out fast to left center, the other was a moonshot for a grand slam to dead left) and I recall thinking, Holy crap, when he's good, he's REAL good. I was thrilled. And he hit 8 more in the next 20 games. Then it went off a cliff, related to the sprained shoulder on May 4th (I think that's the right date). Yes, the guy was awkward and terrible out there, but he derailed his season making an aggressive play into the LF foul wall at Fenway. It was ugly. I remember it well. But...he got hurt trying. Then it all became a "He can't field, he can't even hit, he doesn't even try, he's lazy, TRADE HIM!" death spiral. It is possible, probable in fact, than Hanley was injured enough (and given the cliff-like dive in his homers/average after 20+ games, I'd lean toward probable) that extra reps in the outfield were just a dumb thing to do, because the chance of him getting hurt more, or feeling lots of pain during that night's game and being even less effective, were much higher than the chance that the extra 90 minutes in the outfield that night was going to morph him into a decent left fielder.

In sum, I am a massive Hanley fangirl. I hope he makes his haters eat a giant, chewy, oily crow.
 

The Gray Eagle

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He won't be getting any slack early in the season. Every single mistake he makes in the first few weeks is going to be magnified and blown all out of proportion. If he makes a costly misplay in the first couple of games, then it will be a huge crisis for the media, and everywhere you turn people will be debating whether it's "time to end this experiment now, before he costs us even more games!"
If he makes two or three costly mistakes in the first week or so, then he will be totally buried by the local media that hates him and he will be called a huge problem unless and until he can prove otherwise. I hope if that happens, that the team won't pay any attention to the media outcry. If they believe he can handle the position, then a few misplays early on when he is just starting the transition shouldn't change their minds.

A player trying to transition to a new position should get a little slack, and it would be great if it happened that way, but I don't see that happening here with him. Ramirez will be getting negative slack from the media, unless he proves right away that he is able to play there decently with no serious mistakes for at least the first couple of weeks.