Offseason rumors

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mikcou

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At some point the NFL just divided the total compensation by the number of years for the cap purposes. It would be extremely easy to legislate if that is how the CBA parties wanted to proceed. As noted above they have a formula for dealing with this, so at most the Ohtani contract, by taking deferred compensation to such an extreme, might prompt a change in the next CBA.
That isnt how the NFL cap works. Bonuses are amortized. Salaries are not. Player's also dont defer compensation in the NFL; its a much more regulated environment.

I guess if you really wanted to get rid of deferred money then you could, but the problem is then ohtani just signs for 10/460 or whatever. He isn't signing for 10/700 in that environment.
 

joe dokes

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The Red Sox should go all in on Yamamoto. First, the Red Sox actually need him more than these other teams do. And further, acting like a small market team has grown stale. I am tired of it, like many others are at this point. What's done is done as far as the past goes. Henry tried a new approach, and it hasn't worked well. Ok, so be it. Let's get things moving back in the right direction and all will be forgiven. I think Yamamoto is obvious move for the Red Sox and they should pay what it takes to lock up a mid 20s phenom for the next 10 years.
I agree they need him. I think the "they are acting like a small market team" complaint rings hollow. They may have wanted to avoid the tax at various points, but I suspect the players they didn't get, they didn't get them because they didn't think the players were worth it, not because they didn't want to spend money.
 

simplicio

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I assume a minor league deal? He played five games for the Giants last year then had rotator cuff surgery mid-April.
 

Mike473

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I agree they need him. I think the "they are acting like a small market team" complaint rings hollow. They may have wanted to avoid the tax at various points, but I suspect the players they didn't get, they didn't get them because they didn't think the players were worth it, not because they didn't want to spend money.
After thinking about it, I probably am over stating the small market argument. But, what the hell, emotions are getting the best of me. I think the team need a big time starting pitcher and a shot of adrenaline to get people fired up. I think Yamamoto is a no brainer for both.
 

beautokyo

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YY met with the Dodgers at their Stadium if I'm not mistaken. Cohen went to Japan. Just a feeling that if a player looking for a new home.....if he doesn't go there and look it over then he's maybe not really interested.
 

BeantownIdaho

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YY met with the Dodgers at their Stadium if I'm not mistaken. Cohen went to Japan. Just a feeling that if a player looking for a new home.....if he doesn't go there and look it over then he's maybe not really interested.
Just to add to this, Ohtani, Betts and Freeman were also there. Apparently Ohtani has language in his contract that refers to the team being competitive.
 

E5 Yaz

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Is there a point where the Red Sox might be better served bringing in multiple players with the money folks are willing to give up for Yamamoto?
I think IF they took that route, and the multiple players were strong additions, I'd be fine with it. But we're all a little gun shy from the past few seasons and the patch-and-mend process. So the jury would be out for most of us if they don't get Yamamoto.
 

grepal

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I agree they need him. I think the "they are acting like a small market team" complaint rings hollow. They may have wanted to avoid the tax at various points, but I suspect the players they didn't get, they didn't get them because they didn't think the players were worth it, not because they didn't want to spend money.
Last year we were told they did not think they could win so they just wanted to appear to be competitive as they waited for the young talent on the farm to grow up. Now as we are getting ready for the next crop to arrive the Sox have a chance to get a pitcher who could be the next great ace for the next 4 to 7 years. Yeah, they need to overpay and if they want a shot at the playoffs in 2024 they need to pair him up with a legit two borderline number one like Snell or Mongomery. Hopefully those two along with bello give the Sox a formidable 1 through three and we have solid fours and fives a plenty on the roster.
 

simplicio

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Presumably if we're talking a record length deal the AAV won't be as high. I don't think anyone's suggesting 15/450 unless we're also on the deferral plan. The AAV matters far more than the total number in terms of its effect on other contracts.
 

mr_smith02

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Which ones?
Yes, that is the million dollar (actually way more) question. I would think Montgomery and either another SP, or legit upgrade at 2B or in the outfield so the entire offense doesn't fall on Raffy and Casas.

Just not sure what it will take to reel in Yamamoto will be worth what he is going to get in terms of length and money. Ohtani was on the Angels with Mike Trout (another tremendous talent) and the team did nothing. I just feel like the Red Sox need way more than one starting pitcher, albeit a truly special one, to return to the ranks of true contenders.
 

chawson

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Not sure everyone’s appetite for anonymous, seemingly partially informed twitter rumor-mongerers but since discussion here has circled a few times, maybe it’s interesting.

Series of tweets from someone who goes by MLBExecutiveBurner this afternoon starting here:

2:17 pm
With belief that Blake Snell prefers to play on West Coast, Red Sox in a bind. Losing on Seth Lugo hurt. Red Sox lack the appeal of yrs ago. Boras reps Snell & Jordan Montgomery. Knows Red Sox will be desperate after Snell signs. Don't see Yamamoto or Imanaga in Boston.
2:19 pm
1st Yr Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow in a tough spot. Predecessor wasn't aggressive enough adding arms. One big FA signing Trevor Story really hurt perception of Chaim Bloom in Boston. Breslow doesn't want to tie career to a massive SP overpay, but it's necessary.
2:21 pm
Real Question where Red Sox pivot if they don't land one of Snell / Montgomery / Yamamoto / Imanaga. At that point, impact SP is off the board. Bring Wacha back to Boston? Stroman? Giolito would be a disaster in that ballpark. Might have to go an 8th yr on Jordan Montgomery....
2:24 pm
Projected Jordan Montgomery at 6 Yrs $135M when offseason commenced. That was returning to Texas (no state income taxes / World Series repeat contender)

Boston, it's gonna take 7 Yrs & potentially 8

Nola got 7-$172M with additional $2.45M Incentives

Monty might get 8-$180M+
2:28 pm
Given that Red Sox won't trade Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony or Kyle Teel.... Makes utilizing FA market for a SP a necessity. With Montgomery, Red Sox get consistency & no QO attached. With Snell, the type of deal that could blow up on Breslow. Plus, surrenders their 2nd Rd Pick.

…and then half an hour ago, they tweeted this…
7:48 pm
Red Sox are OUT on Yamamoto
 
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chawson

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Does that account have any history of being right about anything?
I remember it from previous offseasons, combed through about it last night about a year and found a few things that lined up right. It’s followed by a lot of MLB reporters and analysts including Rosenthal, Feinsand, Sherman, Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Travis Sawchik and Rob Bradford.

He was right about Chaim Bloom getting “canned in six months” from last winter lol
 

Jed Zeppelin

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What’s the average age of the FA pitchers they’d typically be looking at in this or any offseason, 30-31? It’s a lot of prime time you are banking on the front end with Yamamoto before he gets to the normal FA age when you’d then be giving a top FA guy $30+ mil. I’d have no problem at all with overpaying in years.
 

bosox188

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I remember it from previous offseasons, combed through about it last night about a year and found a few things that lined up right. It’s followed by a lot of MLB reporters and analysts including Rosenthal, Feinsand, Sherman, Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Travis Sawchik and Rob Bradford.

He was right about Chaim Bloom getting “canned in six months” from last winter lol
For whatever it's worth, when I checked that account Alex Cora also showed up as a mutual follower.

So was my dog
Well what's your dog's take on Yamamoto?
 

soxhop411

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Not sure everyone’s appetite for anonymous, seemingly partially informed twitter rumor-mongerers but since discussion here has circled a few times, maybe it’s interesting.

Series of tweets from someone who goes by MLBExecutiveBurner this afternoon starting here:












…and then half an hour ago, they tweeted this…
That dude is as accurate ” as incarcerated bob was. (In other words pretty much never)
For whatever it's worth, when I checked that account Alex Cora also showed up as a mutual follower.



Well what's your dog's take on Yamamoto?
E5’s dogs take: WOOF WOOF WOOOF WOOOOOOOOF
 

BringBackMo

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I almost hope it’s real, only because it will mean than an MLB executive chose to call his burner Twitter account MLBExecutiveBurner.
 

jon abbey

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We had the same discussion here last offseason when I posted tweets from that account, I think he's as worth reading as most of the more official writers, but I got pushback last year when I posted his stuff, which is understandable. Personally I don't think the bar should be very high in a 'rumors' thread, but I understand both sides.
 

SouthernBoSox

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We had the same discussion here last offseason when I posted tweets from that account, I think he's as worth reading as most of the more official writers, but I got pushback last year when I posted his stuff, which is understandable. Personally I don't think the bar should be very high in a 'rumors' thread, but I understand both sides.
Is he accurate?

Honestly nothing from that seems unreasonable other than “losing Seth Lugo hurt.” No it didn’t
 

jon abbey

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Is he accurate?

Honestly nothing from that seems unreasonable other than “losing Seth Lugo hurt.” No it didn’t
I mean, what is accurate? Anyone doing this, official, non-official, anything in between, is mostly just repeating whatever they're told or have scavenged elsewhere. Sometimes it ends up being true, more often it isn't. Bob Nightengale is pretty much always wrong but people still somehow regard him as a legitimate source.
 

VORP Speed

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I mean, what is accurate? Anyone doing this, official, non-official, anything in between, is mostly just repeating whatever they're told or have scavenged elsewhere. Sometimes it ends up being true, more often it isn't. Bob Nightengale is pretty much always wrong but people still somehow regard him as a legitimate source.
https://x.com/talkinyanks/status/1735111549629468693?s=46&t=VOPklDq0ggmwM6zlZRv9_g

https://twitter.com/talkinyanks/status/1735111549629468693?s=46&t=VOPklDq0ggmwM6zlZRv9_g
 

grepal

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Jul 20, 2005
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Yes, that is the million dollar (actually way more) question. I would think Montgomery and either another SP, or legit upgrade at 2B or in the outfield so the entire offense doesn't fall on Raffy and Casas.

Just not sure what it will take to reel in Yamamoto will be worth what he is going to get in terms of length and money. Ohtani was on the Angels with Mike Trout (another tremendous talent) and the team did nothing. I just feel like the Red Sox need way more than one starting pitcher, albeit a truly special one, to return to the ranks of true contenders.
I agree, 3 out of four last place finishes and in a division loaded with talented opponents. Sox need two starters a second baseman and outfielder with some thump. Can Anthony be the outfielder, maybe. Can Story be the second baseman when Mayer is ready, maybe. Can Cedane be the gold glove caliber middle infielder next year, maybe. Best bets for 2024 are not in Boston organization now and a fourth last place finish in five years should cause we fans to turn our backs on the Sox until they put a consistent championship caliber club on the field. We fans sure pay a champion level premium price for access to Sox games.
 

chawson

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I’m not going out on a limb to vouch for this guy but he had Gray’s market early at Phillies, Braves, Twins and Cardinals and later tweeted that St. Louis “could pivot quickly” to Gray (they did). He also posted the Sox interest in Martin Maldonado about three weeks before anyone floated it through official channels.

A couple days ago people were hankering for actual rumors, not gripes. These are rumors. It’s a good amount of informed speculation that most reporters wouldn’t want to put their name on, but it seems like someone who knows some things. Could certainly be an effort to tip the scales (like a Boras employee maybe?), but the background knowledge is strong.

The point is, though—is it a good thing if the Sox go to 8/$180 million on Jordan Montgomery?
 

simplicio

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I'd be totally down for Montgomery on those terms, yeah.

I think it's easy to price him against Nola and feel that's too much, but I also think Nola could have easily gone above 200 if he'd been willing to wait for the best deal.
 

GPO Man

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Why on earth would the Red Sox be out on Yamamoto this early, unless he flat out told them he’s not interested?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I’m not going out on a limb to vouch for this guy but he had Gray’s market early at Phillies, Braves, Twins and Cardinals and later tweeted that St. Louis “could pivot quickly” to Gray (they did). He also posted the Sox interest in Martin Maldonado about three weeks before anyone floated it through official channels.

A couple days ago people were hankering for actual rumors, not gripes. These are rumors. It’s a good amount of informed speculation that most reporters wouldn’t want to put their name on, but it seems like someone who knows some things. Could certainly be an effort to tip the scales (like a Boras employee maybe?), but the background knowledge is strong.

The point is, though—is it a good thing if the Sox go to 8/$180 million on Jordan Montgomery?
I don’t think it takes 8 years. But listen this is the new normal. Honestly if they could get Montgomery for 22AAV on a 7 year deal I’d be thrilled.

He has a profile that should age fairly well and that’s an AAV that gives you some margin for error.

If they refuse to go over 6 years they’ll never sign another top free agent again. Those days are over.
 

GPO Man

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I’m not going out on a limb to vouch for this guy but he had Gray’s market early at Phillies, Braves, Twins and Cardinals and later tweeted that St. Louis “could pivot quickly” to Gray (they did). He also posted the Sox interest in Martin Maldonado about three weeks before anyone floated it through official channels.

A couple days ago people were hankering for actual rumors, not gripes. These are rumors. It’s a good amount of informed speculation that most reporters wouldn’t want to put their name on, but it seems like someone who knows some things. Could certainly be an effort to tip the scales (like a Boras employee maybe?), but the background knowledge is strong.

The point is, though—is it a good thing if the Sox go to 8/$180 million on Jordan Montgomery?
He will be 38 at the end of that deal and will probably be as effective as Corey Kluber.
 

simplicio

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Instead of giving say, 70 mil over 3 years to Marcus Stroman? No.
I don't think that has to be an instead of. They need 2 guys unless we want a retread of the "which of our relievers might be a starter?" show we've seen the last two years. $45m for Montgomery + Imanaga/Stroman leaves a ton of room under the 2nd CBT line and I'd take it in an instant if YY is off the board.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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He will be 38 at the end of that deal and will probably be as effective as Corey Kluber.
If they don’t want to compete at the top of the regular FA pitcher market ever again that’s fine but they need to find some way to have good pitchers on the team. A team like the Sox can and should be willing to suffer some iffy years on the back end of a deal, especially if the alternative is going year to year trying to get lucky with, well, guys like Kluber.

I don’t disagree that it’s not great business, per se, in the post-steroid era, but if they only pull the trigger on value deals we will be repeating these discussions for all eternity unless they get better at developing or trading for elite pitching talent.
 
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moondog80

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I don't think that has to be an instead of. They need 2 guys unless we want a retread of the "which of our relievers might be a starter?" show we've seen the last two years. $45m for Montgomery + Imanaga/Stroman leaves a ton of room under the 2nd CBT line and I'd take it in an instant if YY is off the board.
I agree. But I'd rather have Stroman + Imanaga at a shorter deal than non-ace, non-young Montgomery at 8 years. It's easy to say "worry about the end of the contract when you get there". It's also shitty financial advice. Which is not to say you should *never* sign long term deals that are likely to crap out at the end. But the bar might be higher than Jordan Montgomery.
 

BigSoxFan

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Re: Stroman

He accused some Mets fans of being racist and had some other pointed comments while there. Given Boston’s reputation (fair or not), do we think he’s a realistic option here and someone who would thrive? He’s also turning 33, which isn’t ancient, but starts approaching the point where I wouldn’t be crazy about a $22-25M AAV for multiple years.
 

moondog80

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He’s also turning 33, which isn’t ancient, but starts approaching the point where I wouldn’t be crazy about a $22-25M AAV for multiple years.
Montgomery is turning 31 and the hypothetical being discussed is giving him 8 years.
 

lexrageorge

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If they don’t want to compete at the top of the regular FA pitcher market ever again that’s fine but they need to find some way to have good pitchers on the team. A team like the Sox can and should be willing to suffer some iffy years on the back end of a deal, especially if the alternative is going year to year trying to get lucky with, well, guys like Kluber.
What is Montgomery in 3-5 years is Chris Sale circa 2020's?
 
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