I know the common consensus is that LBJ is a freak and will continue to play as (one of) the best player(s) in the world for the foreseeable future. But is that a lock?
I also dont know the state of Lebrons groin (thank goodness
). Is it a potential long term thing?
what I am trying to get at is..
Lets say the Celts gamble on the "1 year rental of AD". In 20-21 When he could in theory sign with the Lakers LBJ is essentially 36 (Dec). Now the guy has no doubt been incredibly durable. But is it unrealistic to think that he may be beginning to show signs of cracking?
Keep in mind that if AD is kicked down the road another year, thats another year of heavy workload for LBJ as he tries to carry the 1 year signees (done in lieu of AD for 2019-20) back to a respectable playoff run.
If thats reasonable, from ADs perspective it might not make much sense for him to join a LBJ thats potentially breaking down (or on the verge) and is no longer the player he was, yet one that is still sucking up a 41 Million dollar max Slot.
From LBJs perspective he may realize that this is his last contract (expires After 21-22 when he is 36). So while he wont need the money, it also may not behoove his future business dealings if it appears that Klutch steered one of their prime clients to an LA team so an aging Lebron has someone to lean on. Maybe they should be called Crutch Sports Group. Instead it may behoove their business model for the Celts (or another historical team, so yeah lakers or Knicks included) to sign him to a mega contract and remain a relevant championship contender for the next 3 or so years (Not sure the Lakers or Knicks would be in that position).
So will Lebron hold up another 2-3 years? By a month into the next season he will have played more minutes (Playoff and Regular Season) then anyone not named Kareem or Karl. And he is accumulating mins about 1.16 times as fast as Kareem per season.
I think it could be seen one way if your uniting with a player for 2-4+ years of an extended run. You might allow your Agency to "pull some strings" and "cut some corners". Its another if you pull those strings for
maybe a year or 2 of effective cooperation.
At 36 and showing wear, You might be better off letting your agency do as the market has always done, Get the most money in the best scenario (which includes competitive team and "enjoyable" environment). You might also not want to piss off another (along with the Pels) Franchise by "tampering". At least not for a guy who may well be breaking down by that point and only have @1 all star year left.
Now AD may actually want LA (or South beach or Phoenix or wherever..) over all else. But I am beginning to think that by kicking the can a year further down the road the LBJ factor would be that much more minimized. And if LBJ is no longer the driving reason to go to LA then do you go considering all else? Especially when LBJs 40+ million is essentially the same thing Kobe did in that it could potentially "gut the franchise" by paying a broken down star Max Money. In essence hamstringing the team from being able to put any talent around a "second fiddle" like AD after LBJs breakdown/retirement.
A (hopefully) deep playoff run, A Raucous Garden, Stable coach, GM and owner, and you begin to think that Boston is a pretty decent place to commit long term.
Fun Fact:
LBJ has already played 583 mins more then Kevin Garnett did in his entire (Reg and Playoff) career.